July 18, 2013 - Big Gender Gap As Dem Holds Lead In Virginia Gov Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters Back Same-Sex Marriage 50 - 43 Percent

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A yawning gender gap in the Virginia governor's race leaves Democrat Terry McAuliffe with a slight 43 - 39 percent lead over Republican State Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to the results of a May 16 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN- uh-pe-ack) University, showing McAuliffe at 43 percent to Cuccinelli's 38 percent.

The Republican wins the barbecue poll by a rib as 38 percent say they would prefer to chat with Cuccinelli at a barbecue, while 34 percent would rather talk to McAuliffe. Women are divided 37 - 36 percent, while men prefer Cuccinelli 40 - 33 percent.

"Democrat Terry McAuliffe is ahead by a nose in this tight race, but half the electorate doesn't know enough about him to decide whether they view him favorably or unfavorably. Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli is somewhat better known with only a third of voters having no opinion about him," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"With such a large segment of the electorate unfamiliar with either candidate, there is a lot of movement possible, in either direction, before Election Day. Solid or shaky, McAuliffe's lead is built on women voters."

McAuliffe has a 30 - 19 favorability rating, with 50 percent of voters saying they don't know enough about him to form an opinion. Virginia voters give Cuccinelli a split 31 - 30 percent favorability rating, with 36 percent offering no opinion. Voters approve 47 - 34 percent of the job Cuccinelli is doing as state attorney general.

Since May 16, McAuliffe's net favorability has improved 6 percentage points while Cuccinelli's net favorability has dropped 6 points.

In the matchup, Cuccinelli carries Republicans 83 - 3 percent, while McAuliffe takes Democrats 87 - 3 percent. Independent voters are divided with 40 percent for the Democrat and 38 percent for the Republican. McAuliffe leads 48 - 32 percent among women and 73 - 7 percent among black voters. Cuccinelli leads 46 - 38 percent among men and 48 - 36 percent among white voters.

The controversy surrounding Gov. Bob McDonnell will not affect their vote for governor, 70 percent say, while 14 percent say it makes them less likely to vote for Cuccinelli and 10 percent say it would make them more likely to vote for him.

Same-Sex Marriage

Virginia voters support 50 - 43 percent allowing same-sex couples to marry in the state. Support is 68 - 26 percent among Democrats and 52 - 39 percent among independent voters. Republicans are opposed 68 - 26 percent. Women back same-sex marriage 55 - 39 percent while men are opposed 49 - 43 percent. White voters support it 51 - 43 percent while black voters are opposed 48 - 42 percent.

The candidates for lieutenant governor and attorney are virtually unknown as 81 to 90 percent of the voters do not know enough about lieutenant governor candidates Ralph Northam, the Democrat or E.W. Jackson, the Republican, or attorney general candidates Mark Herring, the Democrat, or Mark Obenshain, the Republican, to form an opinion.

"Unknown doesn't come close to describing just how anonymous the candidates for lieutenant governor and attorney general are to the citizenry that will elect two of them in three and a half months," said Brown.

Virginia voters disapprove 51 - 46 percent of the job President Barack Obama is doing, down from a split 49 - 47 percent approval May 15. Disapproval is 87 - 10 percent among Republicans and 55 - 41 percent among independent voters. Democrats approve 84 - 12 percent. Women approve 50 - 45 percent while men disapprove 57 - 40 percent.

From July 11 - 15, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,030 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa and the nation as a public service and for research.

For more information, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

1. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Terry McAuliffe the Democrat and Ken Cuccinelli the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
McAuliffe            43%     3%    87%    40%    38%    48%    36%    73%
Cuccinelli           39     83      3     38     46     32     48      7
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      1      2      1      2      1      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      -      1      1      2      1      1      1
DK/NA                16     13      9     20     14     17     14     18
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS..............
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-29  30-44  45-64  65+
 
McAuliffe            48%    40%    45%    38%    49%    39%    40%    46%    45%
Cuccinelli           40     38     32     44     39     39     36     40     37
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      1      1      2      2      2      1      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      1      2      2      -      1      2      1      1
DK/NA                10     19     19     15     10     19     20     12     17
 
TREND: If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Terry McAuliffe the Democrat and Ken Cuccinelli the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Jul 18  May 16  Mar 27  Feb 20  Jan 09  Nov 14
                     2013    2013    2013    2013    2013    2012
 
McAuliffe            43      43      38      38      40      41
Cuccinelli           39      38      40      38      39      37
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       1       2       1       2       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1       2       2       2       1       1
DK/NA                16      17      18      21      18      21
 
 
2. Is your opinion of Terry McAuliffe favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Favorable            30%     9%    53%    28%    28%    32%    27%    45%
Unfavorable          19     32      2     21     23     14     23      2
Hvn't hrd enough     50     57     45     49     48     51     48     53
REFUSED               2      2      -      2      1      2      2      1
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Terry McAuliffe favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Jul 18  May 16  Mar 27  Feb 20  Jan 09  Nov 14
                     2013    2013    2013    2013    2013    2012
 
Favorable            30      22      20      23      23      17
Unfavorable          19      17      16      16      16      13
Hvn't hrd enough     50      60      63      60      61      68
REFUSED               2       1       1       1       1       1
 
 
3. Is your opinion of Ken Cuccinelli favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Favorable            31%    64%     6%    29%    37%    26%    38%    11%
Unfavorable          30      5     53     30     26     33     29     33
Hvn't hrd enough     36     28     38     39     34     38     31     52
REFUSED               3      3      4      2      2      3      2      4
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Ken Cuccinelli favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Jul 18  May 16  Mar 27  Feb 20  Jan 09  Nov 14
                     2013    2013    2013    2013    2013    2012
 
Favorable            31      31      30      30      33      29
Unfavorable          30      24      24      25      25      24
Hvn't hrd enough     36      42      44      44      41      45
REFUSED               3       2       2       1       2       2
 
 
5. Is your opinion of E.W. Jackson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Favorable             7%    10%     4%     7%     9%     5%     6%     8%
Unfavorable          12      7     20     10     13     11     13      8
Hvn't hrd enough     81     83     76     82     77     84     80     84
REFUSED               -      -      -      -      1      -      -      -
 
 
6. Is your opinion of Ralph Northam favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Favorable             7%     2%    13%     5%     7%     7%     6%    13%
Unfavorable           3      3      3      3      3      3      3      4
Hvn't hrd enough     90     94     83     91     89     90     91     83
REFUSED               1      1      -      -      1      -      1      -
 
 
7. Is your opinion of Mark Herring favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Favorable             9%     7%    14%     8%     9%     9%     9%     7%
Unfavorable           3      3      2      1      3      3      3      3
Hvn't hrd enough     88     90     83     90     88     88     88     90
REFUSED               -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
 
 
8. Is your opinion of Mark Obenshain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Favorable             9%    14%     6%     8%    11%     8%    10%     6%
Unfavorable           5      3      6      7      7      4      5      7
Hvn't hrd enough     85     83     87     85     81     88     85     87
REFUSED               -      -      1      -      -      -      -      1
 
 
22. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Bolling is handling his job as Lieutenant Governor?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Approve              42%    50%    35%    43%    47%    37%    42%    51%
Disapprove           16      8     24     15     15     17     15     14
DK/NA                42     42     41     42     38     46     44     35
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS..............
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-29  30-44  45-64  65+
 
Approve              41%    43%    45%    47%    40%    49%    38%    42%    40%
Disapprove           16     16     17     14     17     15     14     20     12
DK/NA                43     42     38     39     43     37     48     38     48
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Bolling is handling his job as Lieutenant Governor? (*Low also 35% Oct 2011)
                                                             APPROVE.......
                                                             High    Low
                     Jul 18  May 15  Mar 27  Feb 20  Jan 09  Jul 18  Dec 22
                     2013    2013    2013    2013    2013    2013    2011*
                                                                     
Approve              42      37      37      36      40      42      35
Disapprove           16      17      15      18      16      16      18
DK/NA                42      46      48      45      44      42      46
 
 
23. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ken Cuccinelli is handling his job as Virginia Attorney General?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Approve              47%    79%    21%    47%    51%    44%    51%    37%
Disapprove           34      6     60     34     30     37     32     41
DK/NA                19     15     20     18     18     19     17     22
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS..............
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-29  30-44  45-64  65+
 
Approve              42%    50%    45%    51%    47%    53%    44%    47%    46%
Disapprove           47     26     30     33     40     22     33     37     39
DK/NA                11     24     26     16     13     25     24     15     15
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ken Cuccinelli is handling his job as Virginia Attorney General?
                                                             APPROVE.......
                                                             High    Low
                     Jul 18  May 16  Mar 27  Feb 20  Jan 09  Jun 29  Feb 20
                     2013    2013    2013    2013    2013    2011    2013
 
Approve              47      47      45      41      48      49      41
Disapprove           34      30      27      32      27      31      32
DK/NA                19      23      28      26      25      20      26
 
 
25. Do you think Terry McAuliffe has the right kind of experience to be Governor of Virginia or not?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Yes                  37%    25%    53%    35%    35%    39%    38%    40%
No                   27     37     15     29     33     21     28     14
DK/NA                36     38     32     36     31     40     33     45
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS..............
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-29  30-44  45-64  65+
 
Yes                  47%    31%    33%    41%    43%    33%    31%    44%    34%
No                   29     26     26     29     26     22     24     29     29
DK/NA                24     43     41     30     31     44     45     27     37
 
TREND: Do you think Terry McAuliffe has the right kind of experience to be Governor of Virginia or not?
                     Jul 18  May 16  Mar 27
                     2013    2013    2013
 
Yes                  37      31      28
No                   27      26      23
DK/NA                36      43      49
 
 
26. Do you think Ken Cuccinelli has the right kind of experience to be Governor of Virginia or not?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Yes                  49%    74%    31%    48%    55%    44%    55%    31%
No                   27      6     46     28     25     29     25     33
DK/NA                24     20     23     24     20     27     20     35
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS..............
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-29  30-44  45-64  65+
 
Yes                  51%    48%    42%    50%    56%    51%    44%    51%    46%
No                   35     23     27     28     29     16     28     31     30
DK/NA                14     30     31     23     15     34     28     17     24
 
TREND: Do you think Ken Cuccinelli has the right kind of experience to be Governor of Virginia or not?
                     Jul 18  May 16  Mar 27
                     2013    2013    2013
 
Yes                  49      45      44
No                   27      25      22
DK/NA                24      30      35
 
 
27. Do you think Terry McAuliffe is too liberal, too conservative, or about right?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Liberal              26%    48%     4%    27%    35%    18%    31%     6%
Conservative          4      1      4      5      4      3      4      1
About right          36     14     60     35     33     38     33     52
DK/NA                35     37     32     34     29     40     33     41
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS..............
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-29  30-44  45-64  65+
 
Liberal              31%    22%    20%    29%    29%    20%    23%    29%    27%
Conservative          2      5      5      5      2      7      2      4      2
About right          44     31     32     36     43     32     31     40     35
DK/NA                23     42     43     30     27     41     44     27     36
 
TREND: Do you think Terry McAuliffe is too liberal, too conservative, or about right?
                     Jul 18  May 16  Mar 27
                     2013    2013    2013
 
Liberal              26      22      21
Conservative          4       4       4
About right          36      33      29
DK/NA                35      41      45
 
 
28. Do you think Ken Cuccinelli is too liberal, too conservative, or about right?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Liberal               5%     3%     8%     4%     5%     6%     4%     9%
Conservative         33     10     49     38     32     33     33     31
About right          37     68     15     34     42     32     41     25
DK/NA                25     19     28     24     21     29     22     34
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS..............
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-29  30-44  45-64  65+
 
Liberal               2%     7%    10%     3%     2%     4%     3%     7%     6%
Conservative         54     20     21     32     48     24     32     37     33
About right          30     40     35     42     33     38     35     37     36
DK/NA                13     33     34     22     16     34     29     19     25
 
TREND: Do you think Ken Cuccinelli is too liberal, too conservative, or about right?
                     Jul 18  May 16  Mar 27
                     2013    2013    2013
 
Liberal               5       6       5
Conservative         33      28      29
About right          37      38      32
DK/NA                25      28      33
 
 
29. Who would you rather chat with at a barbecue, Terry McAuliffe or Ken Cuccinelli?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
McAuliffe            34%    11%    58%    34%    33%    36%    32%    43%
Cuccinelli           38     66     14     37     40     37     43     22
BOTH(VOL)             7      5      7      7      8      6      6      6
NEITHER(VOL)         10      7     11     11      9     11      9     17
DK/NA                10     11     10     11     10     10     10     12
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS..............
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-29  30-44  45-64  65+
 
McAuliffe            47%    26%    36%    28%    43%    31%    36%    35%    33%
Cuccinelli           33     41     32     44     38     40     35     40     36
BOTH(VOL)             5      8      9      8      5     13      6      7      5
NEITHER(VOL)          8     12     10     10      9      5     11     12     11
DK/NA                 6     13     13     10      6     11     12      7     15
 
 
35. How much have you heard or read about Governor McDonnell's relationship with a certain donor who provided multiple gifts, including large financial contributions, to the governor and his family; a lot, a little, or nothing at all?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
A lot                42%    39%    47%    38%    44%    40%    46%    30%
A little             34     38     28     38     35     33     35     32
Nothing at all       22     21     23     22     20     24     18     36
DK/NA                 2      1      1      3      1      3      1      2
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS..............
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-29  30-44  45-64  65+
 
A lot                55%    34%    37%    40%    48%    23%    31%    49%    56%
A little             32     35     29     39     37     33     34     37     29
Nothing at all       12     29     31     20     14     43     31     12     12
DK/NA                 2      2      3      1      2      1      4      2      2
 
 
36. Do you think Governor McDonnell was involved in any wrong-doing or not, or haven't you heard enough about this? IF YES: Do you think this is serious or not serious?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Yes/Serious          27%    11%    43%    26%    23%    31%    28%    23%
Yes/Not serious       5      3      5      5      6      4      5      6
No, not involved     16     31      4     14     20     12     19      4
Hvn't hrd enough     49     52     46     51     48     50     45     63
REFUSED               3      3      2      3      3      3      3      3
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS..............
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-29  30-44  45-64  65+
 
Yes/Serious          38%    21%    24%    29%    32%    15%    23%    34%    33%
Yes/Not serious       8      3      2      5      7      3      8      5      3
No, not involved     12     18     14     15     17     17      9     17     18
Hvn't hrd enough     38     56     57     49     42     63     58     40     42
REFUSED               4      2      3      2      3      2      2      3      5
 
                     Heard/
                     ReadQ35
 
Yes/Serious          35%
Yes/Not serious       6
No, not involved     20
Hvn't hrd enough     35
REFUSED               3
 
TREND: Do you think Governor McDonnell was involved in any wrong-doing or not, or haven't you heard enough about this? IF YES: Do you think this is serious or not serious?
                     Jul 17  May 15
                     2013    2013
 
Yes/Serious          27      12
Yes/Not serious       5       6
No, not involved     16      16
Hvn't hrd enough     49      63
REFUSED               3       2
 
 
37. Are you satisfied or not satisfied with the way Governor McDonnell is handling this matter?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Satisfied            30%    52%    15%    28%    34%    26%    33%    24%
Not satisfied        41     21     57     44     39     42     42     38
DK/NA                30     28     28     28     27     32     26     37
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS..............
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-29  30-44  45-64  65+
 
Satisfied            27%    32%    30%    34%    29%    27%    25%    31%    34%
Not satisfied        52     34     38     41     48     34     38     46     41
DK/NA                21     35     32     26     23     39     36     23     25
 
                     Heard/
                     ReadQ35
 
Satisfied            32%
Not satisfied        50
DK/NA                18
 
 
38. Do you think Governor McDonnell should resign over this matter or not?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Yes/Resign           16%     4%    29%    13%    12%    19%    15%    17%
No/Not               61     75     45     65     69     53     62     57
DK/NA                24     21     26     23     19     28     22     26
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS..............
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-29  30-44  45-64  65+
 
Yes/Resign           18%    15%    14%    17%    16%     8%    13%    18%    20%
No/Not               62     60     60     62     64     66     57     62     58
DK/NA                20     26     26     21     19     26     30     20     22
 
                     Heard/
                     ReadQ35
 
Yes/Resign           18%
No/Not               67
DK/NA                15
 
 
39. Does this matter make you more likely to vote for Ken Cuccinelli for governor, less likely to vote for Ken Cuccinelli for governor, or doesn't it make a difference?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
More likely          10%    15%     5%    11%     9%    11%    10%     8%
Less likely          14      6     22     13     12     15     13     16
No difference        70     75     66     69     74     66     73     63
DK/NA                 6      4      7      6      5      8      5     13
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS..............
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-29  30-44  45-64  65+
 
More likely           8%    12%    11%    10%     9%     9%    11%    12%     8%
Less likely          17     12     13     15     14      9     11     16     19
No difference        71     69     69     72     72     78     70     68     64
DK/NA                 4      8      7      4      5      5      8      5      9
 
                     Heard/
                     ReadQ35
 
More likely          11%
Less likely          16
No difference        70
DK/NA                 3
 
 
40. Do you support or oppose allowing same sex couples to get married in Virginia?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Support              50%    26%    68%    52%    43%    55%    51%    42%
Oppose               43     68     26     39     49     39     43     48
DK/NA                 7      6      6      9      8      6      6     10
 
                     WHITE.....................................................
                     COLLEGE DEG   RELIGION..........                 BornAgnEv
                     Yes    No     Prot   Cath   None   Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Support              60%    45%    36%    56%    82%    43%    58%    22%    56%
Oppose               34     49     57     40     16     51     36     74     37
DK/NA                 6      6      8      4      2      6      6      4      7
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS..............
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-29  30-44  45-64  65+
 
Support              57%    45%    49%    49%    57%    74%    52%    43%    37%
Oppose               35     48     45     44     37     22     36     51     54
DK/NA                 8      7      7      7      6      4     11      6      9
 
 
 

Demographic Summary