September 3, 2013 - De Blasio Surges Past 40% In New York City Mayoral Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Quinn, Thompson Battle For Runoff Spot - If There Is One Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
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With 47 percent of black voters and 44 percent of women voters, New York City Public Advocate Bill de Blasio surges to 43 percent of likely voters in the Democratic primary for mayor, passing the 40 percent cutoff and possibly avoiding a runoff, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Former City Comptroller and 2009 Democratic nominee William Thompson is at 20 percent, with 18 percent for City Council Speaker Christine Quinn, 7 percent for former U.S. Rep. Anthony Weiner, 4 percent for Comptroller John Liu, 1 percent for former Council member Sal Albanese and 8 percent undecided.

This compares to results of an August 28 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN- uh-pe-ack) University which showed de Blasio at 36 percent, with 21 percent for Quinn, 20 percent for Thompson, 8 percent for Weiner and 6 percent for Liu.

In today's survey, women likely Democratic primary voters go 44 percent for de Blasio, 19 percent for Thompson and 18 percent for Quinn. Men go 41 percent for de Blasio, 20 percent for Thompson and 18 percent for Quinn. Black voters go 47 percent for de Blasio, 25 percent for Thompson and 6 percent for Quinn. White voters go 42 percent for de Blasio, 28 percent for Quinn and 16 percent for Thompson.

"Can Public Advocate Bill de Blasio keep his surge going for seven more days? If he does, his first contribution could be to the New York City budget - saving the expense of a run- off election," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"Dante's big Afro is the campaign image everyone remembers. What a TV commercial! What a boost with everyone who has kids! What a plus in the black community!"

"Whether it's Dante or the issues, or a mixture of both, de Blasio leads Speaker Christine Quinn among women and former Comptroller Bill Thompson among black voters," Carroll added.

"Council Speaker Christine Quinn's collapse could be part of a seeming New York tradition of throwing female candidates under the bandwagon wheels. Well-known women such as Carol Bellamy, Mary Codd and Ruth Messinger all came up short."

If there is a Democratic primary runoff, matchups are:
  • De Blasio over Quinn 66 - 25 percent;
  • De Blasio leads Thompson 56 - 36 percent;
  • Thompson tops Quinn 59 - 33 percent.
With seven days until the primary, 24 percent of likely Democratic primary voters say there is a good chance they will change their mind, but 61 percent of Thompson voters, 59 percent of de Blasio backers and 56 percent of Quinn supporters say they definitely will vote for their candidate.

De Blasio and Thompson lead in the "enthusiasm" rating as 40 percent of de Blasio voters, 38 percent of Thompson backers and 30 percent of Quinn supporters say they are "very enthusiastic" about their candidate.

Former Metropolitan Transportation Authority CEO Joseph Lhota has 48 percent of likely Republican primary voters, with 24 percent for businessman John Catsimatidis and 10 percent for Doe Fund founder George McDonald.

"With his liberal platform, de Blasio would be a tempting target for Joseph Lhota and the Republicans, if the race works out that way," Carroll said.

From August 28 - September 1, Quinnipiac University surveyed 750 likely Democratic primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percentage points and 101 likely Republican primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 9.8 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa and the nation as a public service and for research.

For more information, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, or call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.
Likely Democratic Primary Voters


1. If the Democratic primary for Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were John Liu, Christine Quinn, Bill Thompson, Bill de Blasio, Anthony Weiner and Sal Albanese, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Liu, Quinn, Thompson, de Blasio, Weiner or Albanese? (Table includes leaners)
                     LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS............................
                                                        AGE IN YRS    COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    <50    50+    Yes    No
 
Liu                   4%     6%     3%     3%     6%     4%     5%     3%     5%
Quinn                18     18     18     28      6     19     17     23     13
Thompson             20     20     19     16     25     17     22     19     20
de Blasio            43     41     44     42     47     47     39     45     40
Weiner                7      8      6      4      7      7      7      3     10
Albanese              1      1      1      2      -      -      1      1      1
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      -      -      -      1      -      -      1
DK/NA                 8      5     10      5      9      5     10      5     10
 
                     POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                     LIBERAL.....  Mod/   DEMOCRAT........
                     Very   SmWht  Con    Strong NotStrong
 
Liu                   3%     4%     6%     3%    11%
Quinn                21     24     14     20     14
Thompson             11     15     26     18     23
de Blasio            54     45     35     45     37
Weiner                4      2     11      7      6
Albanese              1      -      1      -      1
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      1      -      -
DK/NA                 6     10      7      6      8
 
TREND: If the Democratic primary for Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were John Liu, Christine Quinn, Bill Thompson, Bill de Blasio, Anthony Weiner and Sal Albanese, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Liu, Quinn, Thompson, de Blasio, Weiner or Albanese? (Table includes leaners)
                     LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS......
                     Sep 03  Aug 28  Aug 13  Jul 29  Jul 24
                     2013    2013    2013    2013    2013
 
Liu                   4       6       6       6       7
Quinn                18      21      24      27      22
Thompson             20      20      22      20      20
de Blasio            43      36      30      21      15
Weiner                7       8      10      16      26
Albanese              1       1       1       2       1
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       -       -       -       -
DK/NA                 8       8       7       7       8
 
 
1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Will you definitely vote for (Candidate of choice q1), or is there a chance you could change your mind and vote for another of the candidates? IF CHANGE MIND: Would you say there's a good chance you'll change your mind, or would you say it's pretty unlikely?
                     LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS
                            CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1
                     Tot    Quinn  Thompsn DeBlasio
 
Def vote for cand    60%    56%    61%     59%
Unlikely to change   13     17     12      12
Good chance change   24     23     25      25
DK/NA                 3      4      2       3
 
TREND: (If candidate chosen) Will you definitely vote for (Candidate of choice), or is there a chance you could change your mind and vote for another of the candidates? IF CHANGE MIND: Would you say there's a good chance you'll change your mind, or would you say it's pretty unlikely?
                     LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Sep 03  Aug 28  Aug 13  Jul 24
                     2013    2013    2013    2013
 
Def vote for cand    60      49      46      45
Unlikely to change   13      15      16      14
Good chance change   24      31      34      35
DK/NA                 3       6       4       6
 
 
1b. (If candidate chosen q1) Would you say you are very enthusiastic about supporting (Candidate chosen), somewhat enthusiastic, not so enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all?
                     LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS
                            CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1
                     Tot    Quinn  Thompsn DeBlasio
 
Very enthusiastic    38%    30%    38%     40%
Somewht enthusiastic 52     61     49      54
Not so enthusiastic   6      7      9       3
Not enthus at all     3      1      2       3
DK/NA                 1      -      1       -
 
TREND: (If candidate chosen) Would you say you are very enthusiastic about supporting (Candidate of choice), somewhat enthusiastic, not so enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all?
                     LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Sep 03  Aug 28  Aug 13  Jul 24
                     2013    2013    2013    2013
 
Very enthusiastic    38      33      30      27
Somewht enthusiastic 52      53      55      57
Not so enthusiastic   6       9      11      10
Not enthus at all     3       4       4       4
DK/NA                 1       1       1       2
 
 
1c. (If candidate chosen q1) Who is your second choice?
                     LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS
                            CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1
                     Tot    Quinn  Thompsn DeBlasio
 
Liu                   7%     5%     5%     10%
Quinn                14      -     13      22
Thompson             29     23      -      45
de Blasio            24     49     56       -
Weiner                7      4      7       8
Albanese              1      -      1       1
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      3       1
ALREADY VOTED         1      2      -       1
DK/NA                15     14     16      12
 
TREND: (If candidate chosen) Who is your second choice?
                     LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Sep 03  Aug 28
                     2013    2013
 
Liu                   7       6
Quinn                14      14
Thompson             29      23
de Blasio            24      26
Weiner                7       9
Albanese              1       1
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       2
ALREADY VOTED         1       -
DK/NA                15      18
 
 
2. Are there any candidates in the Democratic primary for Mayor that you would definitely not vote for under any circumstances? IF YES: Who is that? (Totals may add up to more than 100% because multiple responses were allowed)
                     LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS............................
                                                        AGE IN YRS    COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    <50    50+    Yes    No
 
Liu                  12%    13%    10%    17%     8%    11%    11%    15%     9%
Quinn                35     38     32     30     39     38     32     31     39
Thompson              5      8      3      5      4      7      4      5      5
de Blasio             6      8      5     10      1      3      9      6      7
Weiner               44     43     45     53     33     41     46     52     36
Albanese              9     12      7      9      8      8     10      9     10
Other                 1      1      2      2      -      1      2      1      1
No-one               12     15     11      9     19     13     12     12     12
ALREADY VOTED         1      -      2      2      -      -      2      1      1
DK/NA                 7      3     10      3     10      6      9      5     10
 
                     POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                     LIBERAL.....  Mod/   DEMOCRAT........
                     Very   SmWht  Con    Strong NotStrong
 
Liu                  11%    14%    11%    10%    15%
Quinn                37     32     35     29     47
Thompson              5      4      5      5      4
de Blasio             5      4      9      4     12
Weiner               47     49     42     42     49
Albanese              6      7     10      9     11
Other                 1      2      1      1      1
No-one               12      9     14     15      8
ALREADY VOTED         2      1      1      1      1
DK/NA                 5      8      8      9      3
 
TREND: Are there any candidates in the Democratic primary for Mayor that you would definitely not vote for under any circumstances? IF YES: Who is that? (Totals may add up to more than 100% because multiple responses were allowed)
                     LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Sep 03  Aug 28  Aug 13  Jul 24
                     2013    2013    2013    2013
 
Liu                  12      17      15      18
Quinn                35      29      24      31
Thompson              5       6       5       5
de Blasio             6       6       3       7
Weiner               44      47      51      28
Albanese              9       8       5       8
Other                 1       2       1       1
No-one               12      16      14      24
ALREADY VOTED         1       -       -       -
DK/NA                 7       7      10       9
 
 
3. (INTRO Q3-5: If none of the candidates in the Democratic primary for mayor gets 40% of the vote, there is a run-off election between the two candidates with the most votes.) If there is a run-off in the Democratic primary for mayor, and the candidates are Bill de Blasio and Christine Quinn, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If the runoff were today, would you lean more toward de Blasio or Quinn? (Table includes leaners)
                     LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS............................
                                                        AGE IN YRS    COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    <50    50+    Yes    No
 
de Blasio            66%    67%    65%    58%    79%    69%    63%    65%    67%
Quinn                25     24     26     34     15     24     25     28     22
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      7      2      4      2      3      5      3      5
DK/NA                 5      2      7      4      4      3      7      4      6
 
                     POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                     LIBERAL.....  Mod/   DEMOCRAT........
                     Very   SmWht  Con    Strong NotStrong
 
de Blasio            72%    66%    62%    65%    74%
Quinn                22     29     26     27     21
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      1      6      2      4
DK/NA                 4      4      6      6      1
 
TREND: (INTRO: If none of the candidates in the Democratic primary for mayor gets 40% of the vote, there is a run-off election between the two candidates with the most votes.) If there is a run-off in the Democratic primary for mayor, and the candidates are Bill de Blasio and Christine Quinn, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If the runoff were today, would you lean more toward de Blasio or Quinn? (Table includes leaners)
                     LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Sep 03  Aug 28  Aug 13
                     2013    2013    2013
 
de Blasio            66      59      54
Quinn                25      30      38
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4       3       3
DK/NA                 5       8       5
 
 
4. If there is a run-off in the Democratic primary for mayor, and the candidates are Bill de Blasio and Bill Thompson, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If the runoff were today, would you lean more toward de Blasio or Thompson? (Table includes leaners)
                     LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS............................
                                                        AGE IN YRS    COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    <50    50+    Yes    No
 
de Blasio            56%    52%    60%    62%    52%    60%    54%    62%    51%
Thompson             36     41     33     31     37     36     37     33     40
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      4      1      2      2      1      2      1      3
DK/NA                 5      4      6      5      9      3      7      4      7
 
                     POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                     LIBERAL.....  Mod/   DEMOCRAT........
                     Very   SmWht  Con    Strong NotStrong
 
de Blasio            72%    62%    46%    59%    54%
Thompson             25     34     45     35     39
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      1      3      1      2
DK/NA                 3      3      6      5      4
 
TREND: If there is a run-off in the Democratic primary for mayor, and the candidates are Bill de Blasio and Bill Thompson, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If the runoff were today, would you lean more toward de Blasio or Thompson? (Table includes leaners)
                     LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Sep 03  Aug 28  Aug 13
                     2013    2013    2013
 
de Blasio            56      52      50
Thompson             36      36      41
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2       2       2
DK/NA                 5       9       7
 
 
5. If there is a run-off in the Democratic primary for mayor, and the candidates are Christine Quinn and Bill Thompson, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If the runoff were today, would you lean more toward Quinn or Thompson? (Table includes leaners)
                     LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS............................
                                                        AGE IN YRS    COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    <50    50+    Yes    No
 
Quinn                33%    29%    35%    47%    17%    34%    32%    38%    28%
Thompson             59     62     58     47     75     62     58     56     63
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      7      1      3      3      3      4      2      5
DK/NA                 5      2      7      3      5      2      6      4      5
 
                     POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                     LIBERAL.....  Mod/   DEMOCRAT........
                     Very   SmWht  Con    Strong NotStrong
 
Quinn                41%    38%    26%    38%    22%
Thompson             53     56     64     57     69
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      1      6      1      4
DK/NA                 5      5      4      4      5
 
TREND: If there is a run-off in the Democratic primary for mayor, and the candidates are Christine Quinn and Bill Thompson, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If the runoff were today, would you lean more toward Quinn or Thompson? (Table includes leaners)
                     LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS......
                     Sep 03  Aug 28  Aug 13  Jul 29  Jul 24
                     2013    2013    2013    2013    2013
 
Quinn                33      33      41      40      42
Thompson             59      57      51      50      51
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3       3       3       2       2
DK/NA                 5       8       6       7       5
 
 
7. Have you personally been contacted by a representative of the - Thompson campaign, either by phone, in-person, or online asking you for your support, or not?
                     LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS
                            CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1
                     Tot    Quinn  Thompsn DeBlasio
 
Yes                  19%    11%    30%     18%
No                   78     87     63      79
DK/NA                 3      2      6       3
 
TREND: Have you personally been contacted by a representative of the Thompson campaign, either by phone, in-person, or online asking you for your support, or not?
                     LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Sep 03  Aug 28
                     2013    2013
 
Yes                  19      16
No                   78      82
DK/NA                 3       2
 
 
8. Have you personally been contacted by a representative of the - Quinn campaign, either by phone, in-person, or online asking you for your support, or not?
                     LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS
                            CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1
                     Tot    Quinn  Thompsn DeBlasio
 
Yes                  25%    30%    29%     26%
No                   73     69     70      72
DK/NA                 2      1      1       2
 
TREND: Have you personally been contacted by a representative of the Quinn campaign, either by phone, in-person, or online asking you for your support, or not?
                     LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Sep 03  Aug 28
                     2013    2013
 
Yes                  25      20
No                   73      77
DK/NA                 2       3
 
 
9. Have you personally been contacted by a representative of the - De Blasio campaign, either by phone, in-person, or online asking you for your support, or not?
                     LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS
                            CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1
                     Tot    Quinn  Thompsn DeBlasio
 
Yes                  17%    14%    17%     20%
No                   81     85     79      79
DK/NA                 3      1      4       1
 
TREND: Have you personally been contacted by a representative of the De Blasio campaign, either by phone, in-person, or online asking you for your support, or not?
                     LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Sep 03  Aug 28
                     2013    2013
 
Yes                  17      17
No                   81      80
DK/NA                 3       2
 
 
10. If the Republican primary for Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Lhota, John Catsimatidis, and George McDonald, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Lhota, Catsimatidis, or McDonald? (Table includes leaners)
                     LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Tot
 
Lhota                48%
Catsimatidis         24
McDonald             10
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1
DK/NA                17
 
TREND: If the Republican primary for Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Lhota, John Catsimatidis, and George McDonald, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If the primary were today, would you lean more toward Lhota, Catsimatidis, or McDonald? (Table includes leaners)
                     LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Sep 03  Aug 13  Jul 24
                     2013    2013    2013
 
Lhota                48      43      49%
Catsimatidis         24      37      35
McDonald             10       9       7
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       -       -
DK/NA                17      11       9
 
 

Demographic Summary