September 19, 2013 - Big Racial Gap In de Blasio Blowout In New York City, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Dem Ties Lhota On Taxes And Leads Every Other Measure
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There are yawning racial gaps on many issues as Public Advocate Bill de Blasio, the Democratic candidate for New York City mayor, leads Republican candidate Joe Lhota on every measure except taxes and has a commanding 66 - 25 percent lead among likely voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll completed last night and released today.

Independence Party candidate Adolfo Carrion gets 2 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds.

De Blasio leads 52 - 40 percent among white voters, 90 - 3 percent among black voters and 68 - 18 percent among Hispanic voters. He leads 63 - 29 percent among men and 69 - 21 percent among women and has leads of 30 percent or higher among every income, education and age group.

Lhota's only lead is among Republicans, 79 - 15 percent, while de Blasio leads 82 - 11 percent among Democrats and 53 - 36 percent among independent voters.

Taxes is the only issue or character measure on which the candidates are close: If de Blasio wins, taxes will go up, 36 percent of voters say, while 6 percent say they will go down and 46 percent say they will be the same. If Lhota wins, taxes will go up, 36 percent of voters say, while 5 percent say they will go down and 44 percent say they will be the same.

"The same kind of coalition that won Public Advocate Bill de Blasio the Democratic primary is working for him in the general election campaign," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "He's OK among white voters and gang-busters among black and Hispanic voters.

"In these opening days of the campaign, Independence Party candidate Adolfo Carrion is no more than a footnote."

New York City likely voters have a 63 - 21 percent favorable opinion of de Blasio.

Lhota gets a negative 30 - 35 percent favorability and 32 percent haven't heard enough about him to form an opinion.

For Carrion, 78 percent don't know enough to form an opinion.

"Republican candidate Joe Lhota's first job is to simply tell people who he is. About one third of voters don't know enough to say if they like him or not," Carroll said.

Voters give Mayor Michael Bloomberg a 46 - 45 percent approval rating and say 61 - 30 percent that "the city needs to take a new direction from Mike Bloomberg." There are wide racial gaps as white voters approve of Bloomberg 60 - 34 percent, while disapproval is 63 - 25 percent among black voters and 50 - 43 percent among Hispanic voters. Fifty percent of white voters want a "new direction," compared to 77 percent of black voters and 68 percent of Hispanic voters.

Looking at de Blasio's qualities, New York City likely voters say:
  • 64 - 16 percent that he's honest and trustworthy;
  • 65 - 24 percent that he has the right kind of experience to be mayor;
  • 67 - 23 percent that he understands their problems;
  • 67 - 18 percent that he has strong leadership qualities.
Looking at Lhota's qualities, voters say:
  • 39 - 29 percent that he's honest and trustworthy;
  • 47 - 35 percent that he has the right kind of experience to be mayor;
  • 51 - 30 percent that he does not understand their problems;
  • 47 - 28 percent that he has strong leadership qualities.
Voters say 50 - 27 percent that de Blasio would do a better job than Lhota keeping them safe and say 61 - 17 percent that the Democrat would do a better job improving public schools.

Stop and frisk is excessive and harasses innocent people, 55 percent of voters say, while 39 percent say it is an acceptable way to make New York City safer. Again, there is a huge racial divide on this question.

The New York Police Department has treated Muslims appropriately, 50 percent of voters say, while 33 percent say police have unfairly targeted Muslims.

From September 15 - 18, Quinnipiac University surveyed 891 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa and the nation as a public service and for research.

For more information, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, or call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

1. If the election for Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Bill de Blasio the Democrat, Joe Lhota the Republican, and Adolfo Carrion, the Independence Party candidate, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward de Blasio, Lhota, or Carrion? (Table includes leaners)
                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
de Blasio            66%    15%    82%    53%    63%    69%    52%    90%    68%
Lhota                25     79     11     36     29     21     40      3     18
Carrion               2      1      2      3      2      2      1      1      7
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      1      -      1      1      1      -      1
DK/NA                 6      5      4      8      5      8      6      6      6
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
de Blasio            67%    66%    70%    74%    63%    69%    71%    65%
Lhota                24     25     20     21     31     26     23     24
Carrion               2      2      2      3      1      2      1      2
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      1      1      -      1      -      1      -
DK/NA                 7      6      6      2      4      3      3      8
 
                     DIRECTION Q14        STOP AND FRISK Q20
                     New    Same          Excssv Accptbl
                                          
de Blasio            79%    40%           84%    43%
Lhota                15     47             8     48
Carrion               1      3             1      3
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1             -      1
DK/NA                 4      8             6      5
 
 
2. Is your opinion of Bill de Blasio favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Favorable            63%    23%    75%    51%    62%    64%    51%    84%    52%
Unfavorable          21     64     11     29     25     17     35      5     11
Hvn't hrd enough     14     13     12     19     12     16     12      7     32
REFUSED               2      -      2      1      1      3      1      4      5
 
 
3. Is your opinion of Joe Lhota favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Favorable            30%    74%    18%    42%    33%    28%    47%    13%    14%
Unfavorable          35     12     43     27     39     32     32     44     31
Hvn't hrd enough     32     14     36     30     26     37     19     41     50
REFUSED               3      -      4      1      2      4      2      2      5
 
 
4. Is your opinion of Adolfo Carrion favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Favorable             9%     8%    11%     4%    10%     9%     7%    10%    14%
Unfavorable          10     11     10      9     11      9      8     10     12
Hvn't hrd enough     78     79     76     86     77     79     84     77     69
REFUSED               3      2      3      1      3      3      2      3      6
 
 
5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Michael Bloomberg is handling his job as Mayor?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Approve              46%    58%    42%    52%    49%    45%    60%    25%    43%
Disapprove           45     41     49     39     42     48     34     63     50
DK/NA                 8      1      8      9      9      7      6     12      7
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
Approve              53%    41%    35%    43%    63%    46%    44%    51%
Disapprove           40     50     56     48     34     53     50     38
DK/NA                 7      9      9      9      3      1      6     11
 
 
6. (INTRO Q6-13: Now, I'd like to ask whether you think each of these qualities describes each candidate in the election for mayor.) Would you say that Bill de Blasio - is honest and trustworthy or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Yes                  64%    37%    73%    54%    66%    63%    65%    72%    57%
No                   16     50      9     22     19     15     22     10     12
DK/NA                20     13     18     24     16     23     13     19     32
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
Yes                  67%    61%    64%    72%    67%    68%    62%    66%
No                   16     17     14     15     20     14     19     15
DK/NA                17     22     22     13     14     18     19     18
 
 
7. Do you think Bill de Blasio - has the right kind of experience to be Mayor of New York City or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Yes                  65%    39%    74%    53%    66%    64%    56%    80%    72%
No                   24     57     15     33     26     22     37      8     13
DK/NA                12      3     11     14      9     14      7     12     15
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
Yes                  61%    67%    74%    68%    60%    75%    66%    62%
No                   27     21     17     22     32     17     23     25
DK/NA                11     12     10     10      8      8     10     13
 
 
8. Would you say that Bill de Blasio - understands the problems of people like you or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Yes                  67%    29%    78%    58%    66%    68%    60%    81%    67%
No                   23     65     11     38     26     21     36      9     14
DK/NA                10      6     11      5      8     11      5      9     19
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
Yes                  68%    66%    73%    72%    65%    74%    71%    67%
No                   24     22     17     21     31     20     20     24
DK/NA                 8     11      9      7      4      7      9      9
 
 
9. Would you say that Bill de Blasio - has strong leadership qualities or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Yes                  67%    41%    78%    56%    65%    69%    57%    83%    79%
No                   18     46     10     28     22     15     29      8      6
DK/NA                14     13     12     15     12     16     14      9     15
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
Yes                  64%    70%    72%    74%    61%    81%    69%    64%
No                   20     17     15     17     25     12     19     19
DK/NA                16     13     13      9     14      7     12     17
 
 
10. Would you say that Joe Lhota - is honest and trustworthy or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Yes                  39%    66%    32%    46%    43%    35%    57%    20%    26%
No                   29     18     33     23     33     26     20     38     40
DK/NA                32     17     35     30     24     40     23     41     34
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
Yes                  43%    35%    30%    41%    50%    49%    36%    37%
No                   28     30     32     35     25     32     37     24
DK/NA                29     35     38     24     24     19     27     39
 
 
11. Do you think Joe Lhota - has the right kind of experience to be Mayor of New York City or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Yes                  47%    77%    37%    60%    51%    43%    62%    27%    38%
No                   35     16     43     24     37     33     25     52     39
DK/NA                18      7     20     16     12     24     13     21     23
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
Yes                  52%    43%    35%    46%    62%    53%    47%    43%
No                   32     37     40     40     30     37     37     34
DK/NA                16     20     25     14      9     11     16     22
 
 
12. Would you say that Joe Lhota - understands the problems of people like you or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Yes                  30%    75%    18%    44%    32%    28%    44%    15%    23%
No                   51     21     60     40     54     48     40     64     54
DK/NA                19      4     22     15     14     24     17     20     23
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
Yes                  31%    30%    24%    27%    39%    40%    28%    29%
No                   50     51     52     60     46     49     55     49
DK/NA                19     19     23     13     15     11     17     22
 
 
13. Would you say that Joe Lhota - has strong leadership qualities or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Yes                  47%    81%    39%    53%    49%    46%    61%    26%    47%
No                   28     10     34     21     32     25     18     41     31
DK/NA                25      9     26     26     20     29     21     33     22
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
Yes                  50%    45%    40%    48%    55%    53%    51%    43%
No                   27     29     31     33     25     32     29     26
DK/NA                23     27     30     19     20     15     20     31
 
 
14. Which comes closer to your point of view, would you say the city needs to take a new direction from Mike Bloomberg's, or the city should continue in the direction in which Mike Bloomberg has been leading?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
New direction        61%    48%    68%    51%    58%    64%    50%    77%    68%
Bloomberg direction  30     47     24     38     32     28     43     10     25
BOTH(VOL)             5      3      4      7      5      4      5      6      5
DK/NA                 4      1      5      4      4      4      3      7      2
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
New direction        55%    66%    72%    67%    51%    63%    65%    59%
Bloomberg direction  36     25     20     24     43     30     27     33
BOTH(VOL)             5      4      4      3      5      3      3      6
DK/NA                 4      5      4      5      1      4      5      3
 
                     STOP AND FRISK Q20
                     Excssv Accptbl
 
New direction        76%    45%
Bloomberg direction  16     48
BOTH(VOL)             5      4
DK/NA                 3      3
 
 
15. Regardless of who you support in the election for mayor, do you think - Bill de Blasio or Joe Lhota would do a better job keeping you and your family safe?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
de Blasio            50%    15%    61%    38%    50%    50%    38%    69%    57%
Lhota                27     80     14     39     32     24     43      6     23
DK/NA                23      5     24     23     18     27     19     25     20
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
de Blasio            51%    49%    53%    58%    47%    58%    52%    48%
Lhota                28     27     23     24     36     27     30     25
DK/NA                22     23     24     18     17     15     18     27
 
 
16. Regardless of who you support in the election for mayor, do you think - Bill de Blasio or Joe Lhota would do a better job improving the public schools?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...................................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
de Blasio            61%    20%    74%    49%    62%    61%    53%    74%    64%
Lhota                17     60      8     26     21     15     28      6     15
DK/NA                21     21     19     25     17     25     20     20     21
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......    HvKids
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+    InPubSch
 
de Blasio            61%    61%    66%    65%    62%    69%    61%    61%    69%
Lhota                17     18     13     16     24     16     18     18     10
DK/NA                21     22     20     19     14     15     21     22     21
 
 
17. If Bill de Blasio is elected Mayor, do you think your taxes will go up, go down, or stay about the same?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Go up                36%    68%    27%    45%    40%    34%    47%    26%    23%
Go down               6      2      8      5      4      8      4     14      4
Stay about the same  46     25     53     42     46     46     42     48     58
DK/NA                11      4     11      8      9     12      8     12     16
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
Go up                42%    32%    28%    34%    50%    29%    38%    38%
Go down               4      8     10      4      3      5      8      5
Stay about the same  47     46     51     57     42     59     47     43
DK/NA                 8     14     11      5      5      6      7     14
 
 
18. If Joe Lhota is elected Mayor, do you think your taxes will go up, go down, or stay about the same?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Go up                36%    23%    42%    28%    33%    39%    24%    57%    41%
Go down               5      4      4      7      4      5      6      1      4
Stay about the same  44     65     38     52     51     38     59     25     32
DK/NA                15      7     16     13     12     18     11     16     23
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
Go up                31%    40%    43%    43%    26%    38%    36%    36%
Go down               6      4      7      2      4      9      5      2
Stay about the same  53     37     33     44     63     43     49     40
DK/NA                10     19     18     10      6     10     10     21
 
 
19. When Michael Bloomberg leaves office, do you think that the next mayor should retain complete control of the public schools or share control of the public schools with other elected leaders?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...................................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Retain control       24%    32%    22%    28%    35%    15%    30%    17%    21%
Share control        69     64     71     65     58     78     61     78     71
DK/NA                 7      4      7      7      8      7      9      5      8
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......    HvKids
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+    InPubSch
 
Retain control       30%    19%    17%    22%    37%    24%    26%    23%    21%
Share control        63     73     77     72     57     73     68     67     74
DK/NA                 7      7      6      5      6      4      6      9      5
 
 
20. As you may know, there is a police practice known as stop and frisk, where police stop and question a person they suspect of wrongdoing and, if necessary, search that person. Do you think stop and frisk is excessive and innocent people are being harassed, or do you think stop and frisk is an acceptable way to make New York City safer?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Excessive            55%    17%    63%    52%    51%    58%    43%    74%    54%
Acceptable           39     81     30     44     41     38     52     17     42
DK/NA                 6      2      7      4      8      4      5      9      4
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
Excessive            59%    52%    57%    57%    58%    57%    59%    54%
Acceptable           35     43     40     39     37     41     35     39
DK/NA                 6      5      4      4      6      3      6      6
 
 
21. Do you think the New York City Police Department has unfairly targeted Muslims to combat terrorism or has acted appropriately?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Unfair               33%    13%    38%    32%    34%    32%    25%    42%    29%
Appropriate          50     82     44     50     54     46     62     33     57
DK/NA                17      6     18     18     12     21     14     24     15
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
Unfair               38%    29%    33%    39%    37%    49%    34%    29%
Appropriate          47     52     51     46     50     44     50     50
DK/NA                15     19     16     15     14      8     17     21
 

Demographic Summary