October 21, 2013 - De Blasio Up 3-1 In New York City Mayoral Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Low Crime Tops Fixing Stop And Frisk, Voters Say 2-1
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New York City Public Advocate Bill de Blasio, the Democratic candidate for mayor, tops Republican Joseph Lhota 68 - 24 percent among likely voters, with few voters undecided or likely to change their mind, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Independence Party candidate Adolfo Carrion has 2 percent.

This compares to a 71 - 21 percent de Blasio lead in an October 3 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

Today, de Blasio leads 54 - 42 percent among white voters, 94 - 5 percent among black voters, 79 - 10 percent, with 6 percent for Carrion, among Hispanic voters, 71 - 21 percent among women, 65 - 29 percent among men, 86 - 9 percent among Democrats and 55 - 33 percent among independent voters. Lhota takes Republicans 84 - 13 percent.

Only 5 percent of likely voters remain undecided and 8 percent of those who name a candidate say there's a "good chance" they will change their mind by November 5.

New York City likely voters give de Blasio a 65 - 23 percent favorability. Lhota gets a negative 31 - 39 percent favorability, with 27 percent who don't know enough about him to form an opinion. For Carrion, 77 percent don't know enough to form an opinion.

"The good news for Public Advocate Bill de Blasio is that he probably can start drafting his inauguration speech," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"The bad news is that New York City voters' priority for the next mayor is - you guessed it - jobs, something over which a mayor has very little control. The next priority is education and if he can succeed where so many have not, they can name a school after him."

Creating more jobs is the top priority for the next mayor, 32 percent of New York City likely voters say, followed by:
  • 24 percent who say education is the top priority;
  • 20 percent who want to keep crime rates low;
  • 18 percent who want to reduce the gap between rich and poor.
Stop and Frisk

Keeping crime rates down is more important than reforming stop and frisk, New York City likely voters say 62 - 30 percent. No group disagrees.

Voters say 56 - 29 percent, however, that the next mayor can reform stop and frisk without seeing an increase in crime.

New York City likely voters are divided on the issue of stop and frisk as 48 percent say it is excessive harassment while 45 percent say it is an acceptable way to make the city safer. This compares to results of Quinnipiac University polls October 3, in which voters said 51 - 41 percent that it was excessive rather than acceptable and September 19, in which voters say excessive rather than acceptable 55 - 39 percent.

In today's survey, men are divided 47 - 48 percent, while women say by a slim 48 - 43 percent that stop and frisk is excessive. White voters support stop and frisk 59 - 31 percent, with opposition at 73 - 22 percent among black voters and 58 - 38 percent among Hispanic voters.

The next mayor should increase the number of charter schools, 39 percent of likely voters say, while 18 percent want fewer charter schools and 35 percent say keep the number the same.

Charter schools in public school buildings should pay rent, 47 percent of voters say, while 43 percent say they should not pay rent.

"As he drafts that inauguration speech, Bill de Blasio will have to ponder the judgment by a sizable minority of voters that he won't be able to reform stop-and-frisk without crime going up. Plus the fact that charter schools - about which he's not enthusiastic - are popular."

From October 16 - 20, Quinnipiac University surveyed 973 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa and the nation as a public service and for research.

For more information, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, or call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

1. If the election for Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Bill de Blasio the Democrat, Joe Lhota the Republican, and Adolfo Carrion, the Independence Party candidate, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward de Blasio, Lhota, or Carrion?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
de Blasio            68%    13%    86%    55%    65%    71%    54%    94%    79%
Lhota                24     84      9     33     29     21     42      5     10
Carrion               2      3      1      6      2      2      1      -      6
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 5      -      4      6      4      6      4      1      6
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
de Blasio            68%    69%    72%    68%    64%    78%    73%    64%
Lhota                25     24     21     27     30     18     22     29
Carrion               1      3      4      1      2      4      2      2
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 5      5      3      5      4      -      3      5
 
                     TOP PRIORITY Q5...........  MORE IMPORTANT Q8......
                                   GapBtw        Reform        KeepCrime
                     Crime  Educ   Rch/Pr Jobs   Stop&Frisk    RateDown
 
de Blasio            39%    80%    88%    67%    85%           59%
Lhota                52     14      4     27      7            34
Carrion               4      1      4      1      2             3
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      -      -             -
DK/NA                 5      4      4      5      5             5
 
TREND: If the election for Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Bill de Blasio the Democrat, Joe Lhota the Republican, and Adolfo Carrion, the Independence Party candidate, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward de Blasio, Lhota, or Carrion? (Table includes leaners)
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........
                     Oct 21  Oct 03  Sep 19
                     2013    2013    2013
 
de Blasio            68      71      66
Lhota                24      21      25
Carrion               2       2       2
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -       1       1
DK/NA                 5       5       6
 
 
1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Will you definitely vote for (Candidate of choice), or is there a chance you could change your mind and vote for another of the candidates? IF CHANGE MIND: Would you say there's a good chance you'll change your mind, or would you say it's pretty unlikely?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...............
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1.........
                           CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1
                     Tot   Lhota  deBlasio
 
Def vote for cand    80%    75%    83%
Unlikely to change   10     11      9
Good chance change    8     10      6
DK/NA                 3      3      2
 
TREND: (If candidate chosen) Will you definitely vote for (Candidate of choice), or is there a chance you could change your mind and vote for another of the candidates? IF CHANGE MIND: Would you say there's a good chance you'll change your mind, or would you say it's pretty unlikely?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN
                     Oct 21  Oct 03
                     2013    2013
 
Def vote for cand    80      77
Unlikely to change   10      10
Good chance change    8      11
DK/NA                 3       2
 
 
1b. (If candidate chosen q1) Would you say you are very enthusiastic about supporting (Candidate chosen), somewhat enthusiastic, not so enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...............
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1.........
                           CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1
                     Tot   Lhota  deBlasio
 
Very enthusiastic    37%    25%    42%
Somewht enthusiastic 46     52     44
Not so enthusiastic  10     16      8
Not enthus at all     4      5      3
DK/NA                 2      1      3
 
TREND: (If candidate chosen) Would you say you are very enthusiastic about supporting (Candidate of choice), somewhat enthusiastic, not so enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN
                     Oct 21  Oct 03
                     2013    2013
 
Very enthusiastic    37      35
Somewht enthusiastic 46      50
Not so enthusiastic  10       9
Not enthus at all     4       4
DK/NA                 2       2
 
 
2. Is your opinion of Bill de Blasio favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Favorable            65%    15%    80%    56%    60%    69%    54%    87%    72%
Unfavorable          23     73      9     31     27     19     37      3      8
Hvn't hrd enough     10     10     10     11     12      9      7     10     20
REFUSED               2      2      1      3      1      3      1      -      -
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Bill de Blasio favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........
                     Oct 21  Oct 03  Sep 19
                     2013    2013    2013
 
Favorable            65      69      63
Unfavorable          23      19      21
Hvn't hrd enough     10      11      14
REFUSED               2       2       2
 
 
3. Is your opinion of Joe Lhota favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Favorable            31%    79%    19%    37%    36%    26%    44%    13%    21%
Unfavorable          39      6     48     35     40     39     33     49     38
Hvn't hrd enough     27     14     30     24     23     30     20     35     38
REFUSED               3      1      3      4      1      5      3      3      2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Joe Lhota favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........
                     Oct 21  Oct 03  Sep 19
                     2013    2013    2013
 
Favorable            31      26      30
Unfavorable          39      36      35
Hvn't hrd enough     27      33      32
REFUSED               3       4       3
 
 
4. Is your opinion of Adolfo Carrion favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Favorable            11%    12%    12%    13%    13%    10%     8%    12%    20%
Unfavorable          11      4     13      9     14      8      8     13     12
Hvn't hrd enough     77     84     74     78     73     79     83     74     67
REFUSED               1      1      1      -      1      2      1      -      1
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Adolfo Carrion favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........
                     Oct 21  Oct 03  Sep 19
                     2013    2013    2013
 
Favorable            11      10       9
Unfavorable          11      14      10
Hvn't hrd enough     77      73      78
REFUSED               1       2       3
 
 
5. Which of the following do you think should be the top priority for the next Mayor, keep crime rates low, improve education, narrow the gap between rich and poor, or create more jobs?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Crime                20%    38%    15%    23%    23%    18%    25%     9%    16%
Education            24     18     27     23     22     26     22     25     35
Gap btwn rich/poor   18      4     22     15     19     18     19     16     16
Jobs                 32     34     31     34     31     32     30     42     25
SOMETHING ELSE(VOL)   2      3      2      1      3      2      2      5      1
DK/NA                 3      2      3      4      3      4      2      3      7
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
Crime                16%    23%    22%    19%    20%    12%    16%    25%
Education            27     22     22     30     20     37     25     20
Gap btwn rich/poor   23     14     17     18     21     22     22     15
Jobs                 30     34     32     28     36     26     29     35
SOMETHING ELSE(VOL)   2      2      2      3      2      -      3      2
DK/NA                 2      5      4      1      1      3      4      3
 
 
6. Do you think the next police commissioner should: A) Come from the ranks of the New York City Police Department, or B) Be a fresh face from outside the New York City Police Department?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
A) Inside NYPD       61%    80%    56%    62%    63%    60%    67%    54%    63%
B) Outside NYPD      24     10     27     24     22     25     16     34     27
DK/NA                15      9     17     15     15     15     17     12     10
 
                     TOP PRIORITY Q5...........  MORE IMPORTANT Q8......
                                   GapBtw        Reform        KeepCrime
                     Crime  Educ   Rch/Pr Jobs   Stop&Frisk    RateDown
 
A) Inside NYPD       78%    59%    48%    60%    50%           69%
B) Outside NYPD      11     29     32     25     36            19
DK/NA                11     13     20     16     14            12
 
TREND: Do you think the next police commissioner should: A) Come from the ranks of the New York City Police Department, or B) Be a fresh face from outside the New York City Police Department?
                     LIKELY VOTERS
                     Oct 21  Oct 03
                     2013    2013
 
A) Inside NYPD       61      62
B) Outside NYPD      24      24
DK/NA                15      14
 
 
7. As you may know, there is a police practice known as stop and frisk, where police stop and question a person they suspect of wrongdoing and, if necessary, search that person. Do you think stop and frisk is excessive and innocent people are being harassed, or do you think stop and frisk is an acceptable way to make New York City safer?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Excessive            48%    14%    55%    47%    47%    48%    31%    73%    58%
Acceptable           45     83     37     48     48     43     59     22     38
DK/NA                 7      2      9      5      5      9      9      5      4
 
                     TOP PRIORITY Q5...........  MORE IMPORTANT Q8......
                                   GapBtw        Reform        KeepCrime
                     Crime  Educ   Rch/Pr Jobs   Stop&Frisk    RateDown
 
Excessive            17%    57%    68%    48%    72%           36%
Acceptable           75     37     26     45     22            58
DK/NA                 8      7      6      7      6             6
 
TREND: As you may know, there is a police practice known as stop and frisk, where police stop and question a person they suspect of wrongdoing and, if necessary, search that person. Do you think stop and frisk is excessive and innocent people are being harassed, or do you think stop and frisk is an acceptable way to make New York City safer?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........
                     Oct 21  Oct 03  Sep 19
                     2013    2013    2013
 
Excessive            48      51      55
Acceptable           45      41      39
DK/NA                 7       8       6
 
 
8. Which do you think is more important, reforming stop and frisk or keeping crime rates down?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Reform stop & frisk  30%    13%    32%    32%    32%    28%    22%    39%    31%
Keep crime down      62     82     60     61     61     64     68     55     67
DK/NA                 8      5      8      6      8      8     10      6      2
 
                     TOP PRIORITY Q5..........
                                   GapBtw
                     Crime  Educ   Rch/Pr Jobs
 
Reform stop & frisk  16%    33%    47%    28%
Keep crime down      76     59     45     65
DK/NA                 8      8      8      7
 
 
9. Do you think the next mayor can reform stop and frisk without seeing an increase in crime, or don't you think so?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Yes                  56%    22%    63%    59%    57%    55%    50%    67%    53%
No                   29     61     21     30     31     27     36     18     33
DK/NA                15     17     16     11     12     18     14     16     14
 
                     TOP PRIORITY Q5...........  MORE IMPORTANT Q8......
                                   GapBtw        Reform        KeepCrime
                     Crime  Educ   Rch/Pr Jobs   Stop&Frisk    RateDown
 
Yes                  34%    66%    74%    54%    86%           42%
No                   48     21     17     30     10            40
DK/NA                18     13      9     16      5            18
 
 
10. As you may know, charter schools are operated by private or non-profit organizations. The schools are paid for with public funds and do not charge tuition. Do you think the next Mayor should increase the number of charter schools, decrease the number of charter schools, or keep the number of charter schools the same?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Increase             39%    49%    35%    39%    43%    35%    41%    33%    45%
Decrease             18      9     19     20     19     16     19     17     15
Keep the same        35     34     36     34     30     39     30     42     33
DK/NA                 9      9      9      7      7     10     10      8      7
 
 
11. Do you think charter schools should be required to pay rent when they are located in New York City public school buildings or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Yes                  47%    31%    50%    47%    49%    44%    47%    51%    38%
No                   43     59     38     47     42     44     41     40     55
DK/NA                10     10     12      7      9     11     12      8      7
 
 
12. Do you have any children in a charter school or on a waiting list to get into a charter school?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Yes/In school or
 on waiting list      5%     4%     6%     4%     7%     3%     3%     5%    11%
No/Neither           95     96     94     96     93     97     97     95     89
DK/NA                 -      -      -      1      -      -      -      1      -
 
 

Demographic Summary