December 18, 2013 - Obama Approval Drops To New Low In Iowa, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Braley, Whitaker Close In Senate Race
PDF format

President Barack Obama gets a negative 38 - 59 percent job approval rating among Iowa voters, according to a poll released today, his lowest score in the state and one of his lowest in any state or national survey conducted by Quinnipiac University.

This compares to a negative 41 - 55 percent approval rating in a July 22 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

President Obama gets negative scores of 30 - 67 percent among men, 45 - 51 percent among women, 7 - 93 percent among Republicans and 31 - 62 percent among independent voters. Democrats approve 82 - 15 percent.

Looking at the 2014 U.S. Senate race, 29 percent see their vote as a vote against Obama, while 14 percent say it is a vote for Obama and 54 percent say Obama is not much of a factor.

In the 2014 Senate race, U.S. Rep. Bruce Braley, the Democrat, gets 43 percent, while U.S. Attorney Matt Whitaker, the Republican, gets 40 percent. Braley tops other possible Republican contenders:
  • 44 - 38 percent over State Sen. Joni Ernst;
  • 46 - 37 percent over businessman Mark Jacobs;
  • 44 - 36 percent over former U.S. Senate aide David Young;
  • 45 - 34 percent over radio commentator Sam Clovis;
  • 46 - 40 percent over political activist Bob Vander Plaats.
"President Barack Obama twice carried Iowa and it was the Iowa Caucuses which began his march to the presidency, but if he were on the ballot here today he would be toast," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"And, his overwhelmingly negative job approval - including thumbs down from 15 percent of Democrats and 62 percent of independent voters - could be having an impact on the prospects for Iowa Democrats who do face the voters in 2014," Brown added.

"Half of the voters say their Senate vote will have nothing to do with Obama, but among the other half, twice as many say it is a vote against the president rather than for him. His job approval among women is six points negative, compared to 37 points among men.

Iowa voters say 46 - 41 percent that they want the Republican Party to control the U.S. Senate. Independent voters go Republican 41 - 34 percent. Voters tend Republican on a number of issues which could affect their Senate vote:
  • 52 percent are less likely to back a candidate who supports the 2010 Affordable Care Act, with 25 percent more likely and 20 percent who say it makes no difference to their Senate vote;
  • 45 percent are less likely to vote for a candidate who supports stricter gun control laws, with 33 percent more likely and 20 percent saying no difference;
  • 46 percent are less likely to back a candidate who supports a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants, with 24 percent more likely and 27 percent saying no difference.
Working for the Democrats is that 52 percent of voters are less likely to vote for a candidate who supported the government shutdown.

"Almost half of Iowa voters want Republicans to control the U.S. Senate. And even though Democrat U.S. Rep. Bruce Braley defeats his potential GOP opponents in trial heats, when asked about what they want in the views of their next U.S. senator, voters appear to be leaning toward the GOP agenda," Brown said.

"Iowa voters say 2-1 they want a senator who opposes Obamacare and a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants, and by a plurality want someone opposed to stricter gun control."

From December 10 - 15, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,617 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa and the nation as a public service and for research.

For more information, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

4. (Split Sample) If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Bruce Braley the Democrat and Matt Whitaker the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Braley               43%     7%    86%    39%    35%    50%
Whitaker             40     79      4     35     48     31
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      1      1      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      1      3      4      4      2
DK/NA                14     13      6     20     12     16
 
 
5. (Split Sample) If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Bruce Braley the Democrat and Joni Ernst the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Braley               44%     4%    88%    44%    39%    49%
Ernst                38     84      4     27     44     31
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      1      1      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      1      2      2      3      1
DK/NA                15     10      6     25     13     18
 
 
6. (Split Sample) If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Bruce Braley the Democrat and Mark Jacobs the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Braley               46%     8%    90%    45%    38%    54%
Jacobs               37     79      3     31     45     29
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      1      1      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      1      1      4      3      2
DK/NA                14     12      6     19     13     15
 
 
7. (Split Sample) If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Bruce Braley the Democrat and David Young the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Braley               44%     8%    89%    43%    41%    47%
Young                36     74      2     29     41     31
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      2      -      1      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      2      1      4      4      2
DK/NA                16     14      7     22     14     18
 
 
8. (Split Sample) If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Bruce Braley the Democrat and Sam Clovis the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Braley               45%     9%    88%    44%    38%    51%
Clovis               34     76      1     24     43     26
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      2      2      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      2      3      4      3      3
DK/NA                17     13      7     25     15     19
 
 
9. (Split Sample) If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Bruce Braley the Democrat and Bob Vander Plaats the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Braley               46%     7%    88%    46%    38%    52%
Vander Plaats        40     80      5     36     47     34
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      1      1      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      3      1      2      3      2
DK/NA                11     10      6     15     10     12
 
 
22. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Chuck Grassley is handling his job as United States Senator?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Approve              60%    78%    38%    60%    62%    58%
Disapprove           30     13     50     29     30     30
DK/NA                10      9     12     11      8     12
 
                     POLITICAL PHILSPHY   AGE IN YRS..............
                     Lib    Mod    Con    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Approve              30%    56%    78%    58%    57%    61%    62%
Disapprove           60     33     15     27     27     33     33
DK/NA                 9     11      7     15     15      6      5
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Chuck Grassley is handling his job as United States Senator?
                     Dec 18  Jul 19  May 23
                     2013    2013    2013
 
Approve              60      59      52
Disapprove           30      29      33
DK/NA                10      12      15
 
 
23. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Tom Harkin is handling his job as United States Senator?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Approve              50%    32%    74%    47%    45%    54%
Disapprove           38     57     14     40     46     30
DK/NA                12     11     13     13      9     15
 
                     POLITICAL PHILSPHY   AGE IN YRS..............
                     Lib    Mod    Con    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Approve              71%    61%    32%    52%    47%    51%    52%
Disapprove           14     28     59     24     39     41     40
DK/NA                15     12      9     24     14      8      9
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Tom Harkin is handling his job as United States Senator?
                     Dec 18  Jul 19  May 23
                     2013    2013    2013
 
Approve              50      50      47
Disapprove           38      35      35
DK/NA                12      15      18
 
 
24. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Approve              38%     7%    82%    31%    30%    45%
Disapprove           59     93     15     62     67     51
DK/NA                 4      1      2      7      3      4
 
                     POLITICAL PHILSPHY   AGE IN YRS..............
                     Lib    Mod    Con    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Approve              82%    45%    12%    35%    32%    43%    42%
Disapprove           16     50     85     62     64     54     54
DK/NA                 2      5      3      3      4      3      4
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
                     Dec 18  Jul 22  May 24
                     2013    2013    2013
 
Approve              38      41      45
Disapprove           59      55      50
DK/NA                 4       4       6
 
 
32. And if the election were today, would you want to see the Republican Party or the Democratic Party win control of the United States Senate?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Republican Party     46%    95%     2%    41%    54%    38%
Democratic Party     41      2     94     34     33     48
DK/NA                13      3      4     25     12     14
 
                     POLITICAL PHILSPHY   AGE IN YRS..............
                     Lib    Mod    Con    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Republican Party      6%    31%    80%    46%    50%    43%    43%
Democratic Party     85     51     12     41     35     46     44
DK/NA                10     17      8     13     16     11     12
 
 
33. Do you think of your vote for United States Senator as a vote for Barack Obama, or as a vote against Barack Obama, or isn't Barack Obama much of a factor in your vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
For Obama            14%     1%    39%     7%     9%    19%
Against Obama        29     57      3     27     34     25
Not much of a factor 54     40     56     63     54     53
DK/NA                 3      2      3      3      3      3
 
                     POLITICAL PHILSPHY   AGE IN YRS..............
                     Lib    Mod    Con    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
For Obama            36%    15%     4%    13%    11%    17%    16%
Against Obama         6     20     50     30     30     27     30
Not much of a factor 56     63     44     54     58     53     48
DK/NA                 2      3      3      3      2      2      6
 
 
34. If a candidate for United States Senator - supports the 2010 health care law passed by President Obama and Congress, would you be more likely to vote for a candidate who held this position, less likely, or wouldn't it make a difference?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
More likely          25%     2%    62%    16%    20%    29%
Less likely          52     89     11     53     60     45
No difference        20      8     22     28     18     22
DK/NA                 3      1      5      3      2      4
 
                     POLITICAL PHILSPHY   AGE IN YRS..............
                     Lib    Mod    Con    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
More likely          69%    27%     4%    23%    18%    29%    31%
Less likely          13     44     79     49     60     47     48
No difference        16     27     15     28     19     21     17
DK/NA                 2      3      2      -      3      2      5
 
 
35. If a candidate for United States Senator - supports stricter gun control laws, would you be more likely to vote for a candidate who held this position, less likely, or wouldn't it make a difference?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
More likely          33%    15%    64%    27%    25%    41%
Less likely          45     64     15     48     57     33
No difference        20     19     19     23     17     23
DK/NA                 2      1      1      2      1      2
 
                     POLITICAL PHILSPHY   AGE IN YRS..............
                     Lib    Mod    Con    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
More likely          62%    38%    17%    30%    24%    40%    43%
Less likely          18     36     65     53     54     37     34
No difference        18     25     17     17     22     22     19
DK/NA                 2      1      2      1      1      1      4
 
 
36. If a candidate for United States Senator - supports a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants, would you be more likely to vote for a candidate who held this position, less likely, or wouldn't it make a difference?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
More likely          24%    13%    46%    16%    21%    26%
Less likely          46     63     22     48     47     44
No difference        27     21     29     31     29     25
DK/NA                 4      3      2      5      3      5
 
                     POLITICAL PHILSPHY   AGE IN YRS..............
                     Lib    Mod    Con    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
More likely          57%    23%    12%    24%    18%    27%    28%
Less likely          16     43     62     43     51     43     43
No difference        26     31     23     32     29     27     22
DK/NA                 2      4      3      1      2      3      7
 
 
37. If a candidate for United States Senator - supported the partial federal government shutdown, would you be more likely to vote for a candidate who held this position, less likely, or wouldn't it make a difference?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
More likely          13%    19%     4%    15%    18%     9%
Less likely          52     34     73     51     44     59
No difference        31     44     21     31     35     28
DK/NA                 3      3      2      3      3      3
 
                     POLITICAL PHILSPHY   AGE IN YRS..............
                     Lib    Mod    Con    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
More likely           6%     8%    23%    11%    16%    14%    10%
Less likely          77     62     30     52     44     54     62
No difference        15     27     43     33     38     29     24
DK/NA                 2      3      4      4      2      3      5
 
 
38. If a candidate for United States Senator - has experience in Washington, would you be more likely to vote for that candidate, less likely, or wouldn't it make a difference?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
More likely          23%    22%    32%    18%    20%    25%
Less likely          19     17      9     24     22     15
No difference        55     56     56     54     56     54
DK/NA                 4      5      3      4      3      5
 
                     POLITICAL PHILSPHY   AGE IN YRS..............
                     Lib    Mod    Con    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
More likely          27%    26%    16%    29%    22%    21%    22%
Less likely          13     16     24     17     17     19     21
No difference        57     54     55     51     60     56     48
DK/NA                 3      4      4      3      1      4      8
 
 

Demographic Summary