September 19, 2012 - Obama Hits 50% In Wisconsin, Virginia; Colorado Is Close, Quinnipiac University/New York Times/CBS News Swing State Poll Finds

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Crosstabs by State

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  • COLORADO: Obama 48 - Romney 47, compared to Romney 50 - 45 August 8
  • VIRGINIA: Obama 50 - Romney 46, compared to Obama 49 - 45 percent August 8
  • WISCONSIN: Obama 51 - Romney 45, compared to Obama 49 - 47 percent August 23
President Barack Obama hits the magic 50 percent mark among likely voters in Wisconsin and Virginia and catches Gov. Mitt Romney in a too-close-to call race in Colorado, according to a Quinnipiac University/New York Times/CBS News Swing State poll released today.

Voters in these three critical states see the candidates as about even handling the economy, while President Obama is seen as better able to handle health care, Medicare and an international crisis. Voters in each state say the president cares about their needs and problems while Romney doesn't care. The Obama-Romney matchup in each of these states shows:
  • Colorado: Obama at 48 percent to Romney's 47 percent, too close to call, but a reverse of Romney's 50 - 45 percent lead August 8;
  • Virginia: Obama at 50 percent to Romney's 46 percent, compared to Obama's 49 - 45 percent lead August 8
  • Wisconsin: Obama edges Romney 51 - 45 percent, compared to Obama at 49 - 47 percent August 23 after Romney selected Wisconsin U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan as his running mate.
Voters say Obama would do a better job handling an international crisis, 50 - 43 percent in Colorado, 53 - 42 percent in Virginia and 53 - 41 percent in Wisconsin.

"All the bounces seem to be over as the candidates buckle down for a seven-week down- to-the-wire race to the finish. The races are close, but Gov. Mitt Romney is losing ground to President Barack Obama in Colorado and Wisconsin and still trailing in Virginia," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. (For a downloadable video of Quinnipiac Polling Institute Assistant Director Tim Malloy discussing the survey, click on http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling- institute/presidential-swing-states-(co-va-and-wi)/release-detail?ReleaseID=1799)

Voters say Obama cares about their needs and problems, while Romney does not:
  • Colorado: Obama cares 55 - 41 percent while Romney doesn't care 50 - 45 percent;
  • Virginia: Obama cares 59 - 37 percent while Romney doesn't care 50 - 44 percent;
  • Wisconsin: Obama cares 60 - 37 percent while Romney doesn't care 51 - 43 percent.
"Voters in all three key states, by roughly double digits, say that the country is worse off now than it was four years ago, reflecting a Romney campaign theme," Brown added. "In Wisconsin and Colorado, voters by the same margin say they and their families are worse off, also. But in Virginia, where the unemployment rate is under 6 percent and among the nation's lowest, voters are split down the middle on whether they are better or worse off during the Obama presidency.

"President Obama has an edge over Gov. Romney on who can best handle a variety of issues - health care, Medicare, national security, and women's reproductive rights.

"But on the number one issue to voters, the economy, the two are pretty much tied in the three states. On the topical question, given events in the Middle East, of who can best handle an international crisis, the president enjoys double-digit leads." Colorado

Obama leads 52 - 43 percent among Colorado women likely voters, while men back Romney by the same 52 - 43 percent. Independent voters are divided with 47 percent for Obama and 46 percent for Romney.

Six percent of voters for each candidate say they might change their mind in the next 48 days, but 73 percent of Obama voters say they "strongly favor" their candidate, compared to 55 percent of Romney voters.

The economy is the most important election issue for 42 percent of Colorado voters, while 22 percent name health care; 12 percent cite the budget deficit and 6 percent list national security. Romney would do a better job on the economy, 48 percent of voters say, while 47 percent pick Obama.

The president would do a better job on health care, voters say 49 - 45 percent, and do better on Medicare, voters say 49 - 44 percent.

The U.S. is worse off than it was four years ago, Colorado voters say 47 - 36 percent and they personally are worse off, voters say 34 - 25 percent.

Government should encourage self-reliance and personal responsibility, rather than community and shared responsibility, voters say 49 - 43 percent.

Colorado voters approve 62 - 19 percent of the job Gov. John Hickenlooper is doing.

"Colorado is emblematic of Mitt Romney's problems with Hispanic voters. George Bush got almost 40 percent of Hispanics in 2004 and won the election, while John McCain received little more than 30 percent in 2008 and lost," Brown said. "Colorado is typical of what is happening in states with large Hispanic populations: Romney is at 31 percent, about where McCain was, and that is an ominous sign for the GOP." Virginia

Virginia women likely voters back Obama 54 - 42 percent. Romney wins among men 51 - 45 percent. Independent voters go with Romney 53 - 42 percent.

Among Obama backers, 9 percent say they might change their mind, compared to 7 percent of Romney voters. Again, 71 percent of Obama voters say they "strongly favor" their candidate, compared to 55 percent of Romney voters.

The economy is the most important election issue for 50 percent of Virginia voters, while 20 percent name health care; 8 percent cite the budget deficit and 5 percent list national security. Obama would do a better job on the economy, 49 percent of voters say, while 47 percent pick Romney.

The president would do a better job on health care, voters say 52 - 44 percent, and do better on Medicare, voters say 52 - 42 percent.

The U.S. is worse off than it was four years ago, Virginia voters say 45 - 35 percent. They personally are worse off, 29 percent of voters say, as 27 percent say they are better off.

Government should encourage community and shared responsibility, 48 percent of voters say, while 44 percent want to encourage self-reliance and personal responsibility.

In Virginia's U.S. Senate race, Democrat Tim Kaine leads Republican George Allen 51 - 44 percent. Independent voters split 46 - 46 percent.

Virginia voters approve 54 - 27 percent of the job Gov. Bob McDonnell is doing.

"Racial polarization in the presidential election nationally is on display in Virginia where blacks back the president 93 - 5 percent and whites go for Romney 57 - 39 percent," Brown said. "Looking at the subgroup of evangelical Christians who share similar religious beliefs, the president leads 93 - 6 percent among black evangelicals , while Romney leads among white evangelicals 78 - 17 percent."

Wisconsin

Wisconsin women likely voters back Obama 55 - 42 percent. Romney gets 49 percent of men to Obama's 47 percent. Independent voters back Romney 50 - 44 percent.

Only 7 percent of Obama voters and 6 percent of Romney voters say they might change their mind. The president's support seems stronger as 74 percent of his voters say they "strongly favor" him, compared to 56 percent of Romney voters.

The economy is the most important election issue for 45 percent of Wisconsin voters, while 23 percent name health care; 12 percent cite the budget deficit and 4 percent list national security. The president would do a better job on the economy, 49 percent of voters say, while 46 percent pick Romney.

The president would do a better job on health care, voters say 51 - 45 percent, and do better on Medicare, voters say 50 - 43 percent.

The U.S. is worse off than it was four years ago, Wisconsin voters say 41 - 33 percent. They personally are worse off, voters say 33 - 23 percent.

Government should encourage self-reliance and personal responsibility, 47 percent of voters say, while 44 percent want to encourage community and shared responsibility.

Wisconsin's U.S. Senate race is a dead heat as Democrat Tammy Baldwin is tied with Republican Tommy Thompson, 47 - 47 percent, compared to a 50 - 44 percent Thompson lead August 23. Independent voters back Thompson 50 - 42 percent.

Wisconsin voters approve 52 - 44 percent of the job Gov. Scott Walker is doing.

"Wisconsin's U.S. Senate race appears to be a dead heat, with Democrat Tammy Baldwin, who would be the nation's first openly gay senator, pulling into a deadlock with former Gov. Tommy Thompson," said Brown. "And Gov. Scott Walker remains in solid shape with Badger state voters, holding a 52-44 percent job approval, not bad for a guy who faced the prospect of being thrown out of office earlier this year."

From September 11 - 17, Quinnipiac University, in cooperation with The New York Times and CBS News, surveyed:
  • 1,497 Colorado likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percent;
  • 1,474 Virginia likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percent;
  • 1,485 Wisconsin likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percent.
Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. For individual statewide crosstabs and trends visit - http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x2881.xml or call (203) 582-5201.

For individual statewide crosstabs call (203) 582-5201 or click: Crosstabs by State

1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or Romney? (Table includes leaners)
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     CO     VA     WI
 
Obama                48%    50%    51%
Romney               47     46     45
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      1      1
DK/NA                 3      3      3
 
 
1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS......
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1
                     CO     VA     WI
 
Mind made up         93%    92%    93%
Might change          6      8      7
DK/NA                 1      -      -
 
 
1b. (If Obama q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     OBAMA Q1........
                     CO     VA     WI
 
Mind made up         93%    91%    92%
Might change          6      9      7
DK/NA                 -      -      1
 
 
1c. (If Romney q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     ROMNEY Q1.......
                     CO     VA     WI
 
Mind made up         93%    92%    94%
Might change          6      7      6
DK/NA                 1      -      -
 
 
2. Is your opinion of Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     CO     VA     WI
 
Favorable            46%    45%    45%
Unfavorable          47     44     44
Hvn't hrd enough      5      9      9
REFUSED               2      2      1
 
 
3. Is your opinion of Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     CO     VA     WI
 
Favorable            49%    53%    52%
Unfavorable          47     43     44
Hvn't hrd enough      1      3      2
REFUSED               2      2      2
 
 
4. (If Obama q1) Would you describe your support for Barack Obama as strongly favoring him, or do you like him but with reservations, or do you support him because you dislike Mitt Romney?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     OBAMA Q1........
                     CO     VA     WI
 
Strongly favor       73%    71%    74%
Like/Reservations    21     24     21
Dislike Romney        5      4      4
DK/NA                 -      1      1
 
 
5. (If Romney q1) Would you describe your support for Mitt Romney as strongly favoring him, or do you like him but with reservations, or do you support him because you dislike Barack Obama?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     ROMNEY Q1.......
                     CO     VA     WI
 
Strongly favor       55%    55%    56%
Like/Reservations    27     28     25
Dislike Obama        16     15     17
DK/NA                 2      2      2
 
 
6a. (VA) If the election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Tim Kaine the Democrat and George Allen the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Allen or Kaine? (Table includes leaners)
                     VIRGINIA LIKELY VOTERS..............................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Kaine                51%     5%    93%    46%    47%    55%    43%    86%
Allen                44     94      5     46     49     40     54      8
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      1      -      -      1      -      2
DK/NA                 5      1      2      8      4      5      3      4
 
 
6b. (WI) If the election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Tammy Baldwin the Democrat and Tommy Thompson the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Baldwin or Thompson? (Table includes leaners)
                     WISCONSIN LIKELY VOTERS......................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht
 
Baldwin              47%     2%    91%    42%    43%    51%    45%
Thompson             47     94      5     50     52     42     50
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      1      -      1      -      -
DK/NA                 6      4      4      7      4      7      5
 
 
7. Do you approve or disapprove of the way - John Hickenlooper(CO)/Bob McDonnell(VA)/Scott Walker(WI) - is handling his job as Governor?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     CO     VA     WI
 
Approve              62%    54%    52%
Disapprove           19     27     44
DK/NA                19     19      5
 
 
8. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     CO     VA     WI
 
Approve              47%    49%    51%
Disapprove           50     47     46
DK/NA                 3      3      3
 
 
9. (CO & WI) Do you think you'll vote in person on Election Day, or do you think that you will vote early by mail or absentee ballot or will you vote at an early voting location? (VA) Do you think you'll vote in person on Election Day, or do you think that you will vote early by mail or absentee ballot? (na = not asked)
                     LIKELY VOTERS... 
                     CO     VA     WI 
  
Election day         29%    91%    87% 
Mail/Absentee        59      7      8 
Early voting location 9     na      5 
DK/NA                 3      2      1 
   
 
10. Is your opinion of the Democratic Party favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about it?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     CO     VA     WI
 
Favorable            44%    46%    47%
Unfavorable          47     44     43
Hvn't hrd enough      5      6      7
REFUSED               4      4      3
 
 
11. Is your opinion of the Republican Party favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about it?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     CO     VA     WI
 
Favorable            40%    40%    42%
Unfavorable          51     49     48
Hvn't hrd enough      6      7      8
REFUSED               4      3      3
 
 
12. Is your opinion of Joe Biden favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     CO     VA     WI
 
Favorable            40%    42%    36%
Unfavorable          44     42     42
Hvn't hrd enough     15     14     21
REFUSED               2      1      1
 
 
13. Is your opinion of Paul Ryan favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     CO     VA     WI
 
Favorable            38%    37%    43%
Unfavorable          38     37     38
Hvn't hrd enough     24     26     18
REFUSED               -      1      1
 
 
14. Is your opinion of Bill Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     CO     VA     WI
 
Favorable            63%    67%    63%
Unfavorable          32     29     29
Hvn't hrd enough      3      2      4
REFUSED               3      2      4
 
 
15. In deciding who you would like to see elected President this year, which one of the following issues will be most important to you, national security, the economy, health care, the budget deficit, taxes, immigration, or something else?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     CO     VA     WI
 
National security     6%     5%     4%
The economy          42     50     45
Health care          22     20     23
The budget deficit   12      8     12
Taxes                 2      3      3
Immigration           3      1      1
Something else       11     10      8
DK/NA                 3      3      3
 
 
16. Compared to past presidential elections, how would you describe your level of enthusiasm about voting in this year's presidential election; are you more enthusiastic than usual, less enthusiastic, or about the same as usual?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     CO     VA     WI
 
More                 40%    39%    39%
Less                 16     15     12
About the same       43     46     48
DK/NA                 1      1      1
 
 
17. Would you say that - Barack Obama cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     CO     VA     WI
 
Yes                  55%    59%    60%
No                   41     37     37
DK/NA                 3      3      3
 
 
18. Would you say that - Mitt Romney cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     CO     VA     WI
 
Yes                  45%    44%    43%
No                   50     50     51
DK/NA                 5      6      6
 
 
19. How confident are you in - Barack Obama's ability to be an effective Commander-in-Chief of the nation's military; are you very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident, or not at all confident?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     CO     VA     WI
 
Very confident       35%    38%    36%
Somewhat confident   19     22     24
Not too  confident   14     13     13
Not at all confident 30     27     27
DK/NA                 1      1      -
 
 
20. How confident are you in - Mitt Romney's ability to be an effective Commander-in-Chief of the nation's military; are you very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident, or not at all confident?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     CO     VA     WI
 
Very confident       24%    23%    23%
Somewhat  confident  28     31     29
Not too confident    16     19     20
Not at all confident 30     25     25
DK/NA                 2      3      2
 
 
21. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on - the economy, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     CO     VA     WI
 
Obama                47%    49%    49%
Romney               48     47     46
DK/NA                 5      4      5
 
 
22. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on - health care, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     CO     VA     WI
 
Obama                49%    52%    51%
Romney               45     44     45
DK/NA                 6      4      4
 
 
23. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on - national security, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     CO     VA     WI
 
Obama                48%    51%    50%
Romney               46     44     43
DK/NA                 7      6      7
 
 
24. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on - Medicare, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     CO     VA     WI
 
Obama                49%    52%    50%
Romney               44     42     43
DK/NA                 6      6      7
 
 
25. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on - taxes, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     CO     VA     WI
 
Obama                49%    50%    50%
Romney               45     45     45
DK/NA                 6      5      5
 
26. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on - women's reproductive health issues, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     CO     VA     WI
 
Obama                57%    59%    55%
Romney               32     31     34
DK/NA                11     11     11
 
 
27. (Added Wednesday) Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - handling an international crisis, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........
                     WEDNESDAY THRU MONDAY
                     CO     VA     WI
 
Obama                50%    53%    53%
Romney               43     42     41
DK/NA                 6      6      6
 
 
28. Which comes closest to your view of Barack Obama's economic policies, A) They are improving the economy now, and will probably continue to do so, or B) They have not improved the economy yet, but will if given more time, or C) They are not improving the economy and probably never will.
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     CO     VA     WI
 
A)Improving now      29%    31%    28%
B)Will improve       23     23     29
C)Will never improve 46     45     42
ECONOMY WORSE(VOL)    -      -      -
DK/NA                 1      1      2
 
 
29. If Barack Obama is re-elected President, do you think the policies of his administration will favor the rich, favor the middle class, favor the poor, or will they treat all groups the same?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     CO     VA     WI
 
Favor the rich        9%     7%    10%
Favor middle class   30     33     34
Favor the poor       25     27     26
Treat all the same   26     25     24
DK/NA                10      9      7
 
 
30. If Mitt Romney is elected President, do you think the policies of his administration will favor the rich, favor the middle class, favor the poor, or will they treat all groups the same?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     CO     VA     WI
 
Favor the rich       54%    55%    55%
Favor middle class   10     11     10
Favor the poor        1      1      1
Treat all the same   32     31     31
DK/NA                 4      3      4
 
 
31. Compared with four years ago, is the United States better off today, worse off today, or about the same?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     CO     VA     WI
 
Better off           36%    35%    33%
Worse off            47     45     41
About the same       16     19     25
DK/NA                 1      1      1
 
 
32. Compared with four years ago, are you and your family better off today, worse off today, or about the same?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     CO     VA     WI
 
Better off           25%    27%    23%
Worse off            34     29     33
About the same       41     44     44
DK/NA                 1      -      1
 
 
33. Which of these comes closer to your opinion, The United States is more successful when the government emphasizes self-reliance and individual responsibility, or The United States is more successful when the government emphasizes community and shared responsibility.
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     CO     VA     WI
 
Self-reliance        49%    44%    47%
Community            43     48     44
BOTH (VOL)            2      2      3
DK/NA                 5      6      6
 
 
34. In general, do you support or oppose the United States increasing the amount of drilling for oil and natural gas in offshore waters?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     CO     VA     WI
 
Support              63%    66%    65%
Oppose               31     27     27
DK/NA                 6      8      8
 
 
35. In general, do you support or oppose the United States increasing the amount of drilling for oil and natural gas on federally owned land?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     CO     VA     WI
 
Support              69%    68%    68%
Oppose               24     24     22
DK/NA                 7      8      9
 
 
36. Did you watch any of the Republican National Convention? (IF YES, ASK:) Did what you see make you think better of Mitt Romney or worse of him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     CO     VA     WI
 
Yes/Better           34%    36%    33%
Yes/Worse            25     20     23
YES/NO DIFF(VOL)     12     16     14
No/Didn't watch      27     26     29
DK/NA                 2      1      1
 
 
37. Did you watch any of the Democratic National Convention? (IF YES, ASK:) Did what you see make you think better of Barack Obama or worse of him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     CO     VA     WI
 
Yes/Better           35%    35%    35%
Yes/Worse            21     17     18
YES/NO DIFF(VOL)     17     19     18
No/Didn't watch      25     27     28
DK/NA                 2      2      1
 
 
38. How often do you think the Romney campaign presents information that is accurate; just about always, most of the time, only some of the time, or almost never?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     CO     VA     WI
 
Just about always     9%     9%     8%
Most of the time     29     30     29
Some of the time     39     39     44
Almost never         20     18     16
DK/NA                 3      3      3
 
 
39. How often do you think the Obama campaign presents information that is accurate; just about always, most of the time, only some of the time, or almost never?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     CO     VA     WI
 
Just about always    11%    11%    11%
Most of the time     32     38     34
Some of the time     37     35     39
Almost never         19     14     13
DK/NA                 2      2      2
 
 
40. Have you seen any commercials on television for - Mitt Romney, or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     CO     VA     WI
 
Yes                  93%    94%    85%
No/Haven't seen       7      6     14
DK/NA                 -      1      1
 
 
41. Have you seen any commercials on television for - Barack Obama, or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     CO     VA     WI
 
Yes                  93%    96%    86%
No/Haven't seen       6      4     14
DK/NA                 -      -      -
 
 

Additional info by state:
Colorado: Crosstabs Demographic Summary
Virginia: Crosstabs Demographic Summary
Wisconsin: Crosstabs Demographic Summary