November 4, 2013 - Christie Up 2-1 In New Jersey Gov Race That Never Was, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Republican Gov Takes Almost One-Third Of Democrats
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The New Jersey governor's race, where Republican incumbent Gov. Christopher Christie maintained leads of about 2-1 for months, ends with the governor leading State Sen. Barbara Buono, his Democratic challenger, 61 - 33 percent among likely voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll completed last night and released today.

This compares to Christie's 64 - 31 percent lead in an October 29 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. Today, 6 percent of voters are undecided and 6 percent of those who name a candidate say there's a "good chance" they will change their mind by tomorrow's Election Day.

Christie leads 66 - 29 percent among men and 57 - 36 percent among women, 94 - 5 percent among Republicans and 64 - 29 percent among independent voters. He even gets 30 percent of Democrats, to Buono's 64 percent.

"That weekend bus ride around the Garden State must have felt like a victory tour for Gov. Christopher Christie" said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"Sen. Barbara Buono gave it a good New Jersey try, but she wasn't stronger than the Christie Storm. Quinnipiac's final numbers say blow-out.

"The only uncertainty is the State Legislature. Christie talked up Republican candidates in the final days, but those legislative district lines were drawn for Democrats.

"With his appeal to independent voters, and even Democrats, Christie-for-President 2016 begins a few minutes after 8 o'clock tomorrow night."

New Jersey likely voters give Christie a 64 - 29 percent favorability, including 65 - 27 percent among independent voters. His favorability among Democrats is a negative 39 - 52 percent.

"Favorability ratings that high make Christie the envy of the governors in the other eight states polled by Quinnipiac University," Carroll said. "And a 60 - 32 percent favorability rating among women might be unheard-of for a Republican office-holder."

Buono ends the campaign with a negative 27 - 32 percent favorability and 37 percent of voters who still don't know enough about her to form an opinion.

From October 30 - November 3, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,388 New Jersey likely voters in the election for governor, with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research. For more information, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

1. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Barbara Buono the Democrat and Chris Christie the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Buono or Christie? (Table includes leaners)
                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Buono                33      5     64     29     29     36     28     57
Christie             61     94     30     64     66     57     67     33
SOMEONE ELSE(VOL)     1      -      -      1      1      1      1      -
DK/NA                 6      1      6      6      4      7      4      9
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
Buono                37     30     40     28     30     39     30     34
Christie             57     63     52     66     67     56     67     58
SOMEONE ELSE(VOL)     1      1      1      1      -      -      1      1
DK/NA                 5      6      7      5      2      5      3      8
 
TREND: If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Barbara Buono the Democrat and Chris Christie the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Buono or Christie? (Table includes leaners)
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Nov 4  Oct 29  Oct 17  Oct 10  Sep 25
                     2013    2013    2013    2013    2013
 
Buono                33      31      33      33      30
Christie             61      64      62      62      64
SOMEONE ELSE (VOL)    1       1       -       1       1
DK/NA                 6       5       5       4       5
 
 
1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Will you definitely vote for (Candidate of choice), or is there a chance you could change your mind and vote for (Candidate not chosen)? IF CHANGE MIND: Would you say there's a good chance you'll change your mind, or would you say it's pretty unlikely?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.............
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN .........
                            CANDIDATE OF CHOICE
                     Tot    Buono  Christie
 
Def vote for cand    88     87     88
Unlikely to change    5      5      4
Good chance change    6      7      6
DK/NA                 1      1      1
 
TREND: (If candidate chosen) Will you definitely vote for (Candidate of choice), or is there a chance you could change your mind and vote for (Candidate not chosen)? IF CHANGE MIND: Would you say there's a good chance you'll change your mind, or would you say it's pretty unlikely?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Nov 4  Oct 29  Oct 17  Oct 10  Sep 25
                     2013    2013    2013    2013    2013
 
Def vote for cand    88      85      87      87      86
Unlikely to change    5       8       6       6       5
Good chance change    6       5       6       7       8
DK/NA                 1       2       1       1       1
 
 
1b. (If candidate chosen q1) Would you say you are very enthusiastic about supporting (Candidate of choice), somewhat enthusiastic, not so enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.............
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN .........
                            CANDIDATE OF CHOICE
                     Tot    Buono  Christie
 
Very enthusiastic    44     29     53
Somewht enthusiastic 43     50     39
Not so enthusiastic   8     13      5
Not enthus at all     4      6      3
DK/NA                 1      1      1
 
TREND: (If candidate chosen) Would you say you are very enthusiastic about supporting (Candidate of choice), somewhat enthusiastic, not so enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Nov 4  Oct 29  Oct 17  Oct 10  Sep 25
                     2013    2013    2013    2013    2013
 
Very enthusiastic    44      39      48      48      50
Somewht enthusiastic 43      47      39      41      37
Not so enthusiastic   8       8       9       7       8
Not enthus at all     4       5       4       3       4
DK/NA                 1       1       1       -       1
 
 
2. Is your opinion of Chris Christie favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Favorable            64%    93%    39%    65%    69%    60%    70%    36%
Unfavorable          29      6     52     27     25     32     25     50
Hvn't hrd enough      2      -      4      2      3      2      1      8
REFUSED               4      -      4      6      3      5      4      5
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
Favorable            61%    67%    63%    65%    67%    65%    64%    66%
Unfavorable          35     25     28     31     29     28     30     28
Hvn't hrd enough      1      3      5      2      2      5      3      1
REFUSED               3      6      4      2      2      2      3      5
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Chris Christie favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Nov 4  Oct 29  Oct 17  Oct 10  Sep 25
                     2013    2013    2013    2013    2013
 
Favorable            64      65      63      63      67
Unfavorable          29      29      31      31      27
Hvn't hrd enough      2       2       3       2       2
REFUSED               4       3       3       4       4
 
 
3. Is your opinion of Barbara Buono favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Favorable            27%     6%    51%    25%    25%    29%    25%    38%
Unfavorable          32     55      9     34     35     30     36      6
Hvn't hrd enough     37     37     38     36     37     36     36     51
REFUSED               4      2      3      6      3      5      3      5
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
Favorable            35%    22%    31%    27%    26%    32%    25%    29%
Unfavorable          32     32     24     38     35     23     31     35
Hvn't hrd enough     30     41     41     31     37     37     41     33
REFUSED               3      5      4      4      2      7      3      3
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Barbara Buono favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Nov 4  Oct 29  Oct 17  Oct 10  Sep 25
                     2013    2013    2013    2013    2013
 
Favorable            27      26      28      29      23
Unfavorable          32      37      36      35      36
Hvn't hrd enough     37      35      34      34      40
REFUSED               4       3       2       2       1
 

Demographic Summary