March 21, 2013 - Clinton Tops Florida Favorite Sons In 2016 Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; 91% Back Universal Gun Background Checks

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Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has double-digit leads over either of Florida's favorite sons, former Gov. Jeb Bush or U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio, in an early look at the 2016 presidential election, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

By a 91 - 8 percent margin, consistent with margins found in other states surveyed by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University, Florida voters support universal background checks for gun purchases. Voters in gun-owning households support universal background checks 88 - 11 percent.

Mrs. Clinton, who shows the most strength of any potential 2016 aspirant in Quinnipiac University's national polls, leads Jeb Bush 51 - 40 percent and bests Sen. Rubio 52 - 41 percent in a poll of Sunshine State registered voters.

Clinton is viewed much more favorably than either man, 62 - 33 percent favorable for Clinton, compared to 50 - 35 percent favorable for Bush and 41 - 34 percent for Rubio.

"We probably won't know for some time whether former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton runs for president in 2016, but if she decides to make the race, she begins with a sizable lead in a state that Republicans cannot win the White House without," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Florida voters have a very positive view of Mrs. Clinton and it's not just Democrats who feel that way."

Mrs. Clinton is viewed favorably by 26 percent of Republicans, not bad for a Democrat who's had her share of battles with the GOP, and gets a 57 - 35 percent favorability among the key voting group, independents. Not surprisingly, she gets 93 - 5 percent favorability among Democrats. She has a 10-point gender gap: 66 percent of women and 56 percent of men view her favorably.

In a head-to-head with Jeb Bush, Mrs. Clinton would get 10 percent of Republicans while he would only get 4 percent of Democrats. Independent voters are divided 42 percent for Clinton and 41 percent for Bush.

President Obama remains slightly above water in Florida, with a 50 - 45 percent job approval rating.

Gun-Control

Florida voters support 51 - 44 percent stricter statewide gun-control laws, with gun owners opposed 61 - 33 percent. Attitudes on specific gun measures are:
  • 56 - 41 percent support a nationwide ban on the sale of assault weapons, with gun- owners opposed 57 - 41 percent;
  • 53 - 43 percent support a nationwide ban on the sale of high-capacity magazines holding more than 10 rounds, with gun-owners opposed 56 - 40 percent;
  • 59 - 36 percent support placing armed police officers in schools;
  • 57 - 33 percent that gun ownership in Florida does more to protect people from crime than to put them at risk;
  • 60 - 31 percent say allowing people to own assault weapons makes the country more dangerous rather than safer, with gun owners divided 44 - 44 percent.
President Barack Obama better reflects their views on guns, 44 percent of Florida voters say, while 45 percent say the National Rifle Association better reflects their views.

"Floridians' views on guns are pretty much in line with results seen in other states surveyed by Quinnipiac University," Brown said. "Women are more likely to support restricting guns than men; blacks more than whites and Democrats more than Republicans. The idea of requiring background checks on those who want to buy guns has overwhelming support, 91 - 8 percent, in a country where getting a majority to agree on anything is often difficult."

From March 13 - 18, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,000 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and the nation as a public service and for research.

For more information or RSS feed, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, or call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

10. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Jeb Bush the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Clinton              51%    10%    92%    42%    45%    56%    44%    86%    62%
Bush                 40     88      4     41     45     36     48      9     30
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      2      1      1      1      -      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      1      1      4      4      1      2      3      -
DK/NA                 5      1      2     11      5      6      5      1      8
 
                     WHITE..............................................
                     COLLEGE DEG                               BornAgnEv
                     Yes    No     Prot   Cath   Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Clinton              47%    42%    32%    42%    38%    49%    25%    44%
Bush                 45     50     60     51     53     44     66     48
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      1      2      -      1      1      2      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      2      1      -      3      1      3      2
DK/NA                 5      5      4      7      5      6      5      5
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
Clinton              52%    51%    53%    54%    51%    55%    51%    50%
Bush                 39     41     39     43     39     31     45     42
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      1      -      3      1      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      3      2      1      2      6      1      1
DK/NA                 6      5      5      2      5      8      2      5
 
 
11. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Marco Rubio the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Clinton              52%     8%    90%    47%    48%    55%    45%    88%    57%
Rubio                41     90      6     38     44     37     48      6     35
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      1      2      1      1      1      1      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      -      -      2      1      -      1      3      -
DK/NA                 6      1      3     11      5      6      5      2      8
 
                     WHITE..............................................
                     COLLEGE DEG                               BornAgnEv
                     Yes    No     Prot   Cath   Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Clinton              50%    42%    32%    47%    41%    49%    27%    45%
Rubio                46     49     62     47     53     44     67     48
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      1      -      1      1      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      1      1      -      1      -      2      1
DK/NA                 3      6      4      6      4      6      3      5
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
Clinton              55%    51%    52%    56%    55%    54%    53%    51%
Rubio                39     41     38     41     41     33     43     42
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      1      2      -      1      2      -      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      1      1      -      -      3      -      -
DK/NA                 5      6      6      3      4      8      4      5
 
 
12. Is your opinion of Jeb Bush favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Favorable            50%    87%    27%    48%    50%    50%    58%    20%    41%
Unfavorable          35      5     61     32     36     35     31     62     32
Hvn't hrd enough     13      7     11     17     13     12      9     17     25
REFUSED               2      1      1      3      1      3      2      1      1
 
 
13. Is your opinion of Marco Rubio favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Favorable            41%    81%    12%    41%    45%    38%    48%    10%    39%
Unfavorable          34      3     60     30     34     33     31     51     34
Hvn't hrd enough     24     15     26     26     20     27     20     39     25
REFUSED               1      -      2      2      1      2      1      -      2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Marco Rubio favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                             FAVORABLE......
                                                             High    Low
                     Mar 21  May 23  Feb 03  Aug 19  Jul 30  May 23  Apr 16
                     2013    2012    2011    2010    2010    2012    2009
 
Favorable            41      44      41      35      35      44      10
Unfavorable          34      24      17      28      24      24      11
Hvn't hrd enough     24      31      41      34      38      31      78
REFUSED               1       1       2       2       3       1       2
 
 
14. Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Favorable            62%    26%    93%    57%    56%    66%    57%    88%    68%
Unfavorable          33     68      5     35     37     29     39      7     25
Hvn't hrd enough      4      3      2      4      5      2      3      5      6
REFUSED               2      2      -      3      1      2      2      -      1
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? (*Low also 44% Jun 2007)
                                                             FAVORABLE......
                                                             High    Low
                     Mar 21  May 22  May 1   Apr 2   Dec 5   Mar 21  Apr 2
                     2013    2008    2008    2008    2007    2013    2008*
 
Favorable            62      48      49      44      52      62      44
Unfavorable          33      43      40      45      41      33      45
Hvn't hrd enough      4       5       7       8       5       4       8
REFUSED               2       4       4       4       3       2       4
 
 
19. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Approve              50%     7%    89%    46%    47%    52%    41%    95%    52%
Disapprove           45     92      7     48     48     43     56      -     32
DK/NA                 5      1      4      6      5      5      3      5     16
 
                     WHITE..............................................
                     COLLEGE DEG                               BornAgnEv
                     Yes    No     Prot   Cath   Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Approve              44%    40%    29%    42%    38%    44%    25%    41%
Disapprove           55     56     70     56     59     53     73     58
DK/NA                 1      4      1      2      3      3      1      2
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
Approve              51%    49%    51%    54%    51%    54%    48%    48%
Disapprove           47     45     43     44     45     35     48     48
DK/NA                 2      6      5      2      4     10      3      4
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
                                                             APPROVE.......
                                                             High    Low
                     Mar 21  Dec 19  Jun 27  Jun 21  May 23  Feb 19  Sep 22
                     2013    2012    2012    2012    2012    2009    2011
 
Approve              50      54      47      47      44      64      39
Disapprove           45      42      49      49      52      23      57
DK/NA                 5       4       5       4       3      13       5
 
 
28. Do you favor or oppose stricter gun control laws in Florida?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Favor                51%    23%    79%    46%    43%    57%    45%    72%    62%
Oppose               44     75     16     48     52     37     50     22     30
DK/NA                 5      2      5      6      4      6      5      6      8
 
                     DENSITY............  GUN HSHOLD    HAVE KIDS......
                     Urban  Suburb Rural  Yes    No     <18    InPubSch
 
Favor                55%    53%    38%    33%    66%    46%    49%
Oppose               41     42     55     61     29     50     49
DK/NA                 5      5      6      5      5      4      3
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
Favor                58%    48%    50%    54%    54%    46%    48%    53%
Oppose               39     47     44     44     42     49     46     41
DK/NA                 4      6      6      2      4      5      5      5
 
TREND: Do you favor or oppose stricter gun control laws in Florida?
                     Mar 21  May 24
                     2013    2012
 
Favor                51      45
Oppose               44      51
DK/NA                 5       5
 
 
29. Do you favor or oppose a nationwide ban on the sale of assault weapons?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Favor                56%    29%    83%    51%    47%    63%    51%    74%    67%
Oppose               41     68     14     47     51     33     46     19     32
DK/NA                 3      3      3      2      2      4      3      7      1
 
                     DENSITY............  GUN HSHOLD    HAVE KIDS......
                     Urban  Suburb Rural  Yes    No     <18    InPubSch
 
Favor                60%    58%    44%    41%    69%    49%    50%
Oppose               37     40     53     57     28     47     46
DK/NA                 3      2      3      3      3      3      4
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
Favor                64%    52%    55%    57%    60%    45%    54%    63%
Oppose               34     44     41     42     40     55     43     33
DK/NA                 2      4      4      2      -      -      3      4
 
 
30. Do you favor or oppose a nationwide ban on the sale of high-capacity ammunition magazines that hold more than 10 bullets?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Favor                53%    31%    75%    50%    47%    59%    50%    68%    61%
Oppose               43     65     21     48     51     37     47     25     34
DK/NA                 4      3      4      2      3      4      3      6      5
 
                     DENSITY............  GUN HSHOLD    HAVE KIDS......
                     Urban  Suburb Rural  Yes    No     <18    InPubSch
 
Favor                57%    55%    44%    40%    66%    46%    48%
Oppose               41     41     50     56     31     50     48
DK/NA                 2      3      6      4      3      4      3
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
Favor                61%    50%    51%    60%    57%    49%    51%    57%
Oppose               36     46     46     37     42     47     48     39
DK/NA                 3      4      4      3      1      4      1      4
 
 
31. Do you favor or oppose requiring background checks for all gun buyers?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Favor                91%    87%    98%    89%    89%    93%    89%    96%    96%
Oppose                8     11      2     11     10      6     10      4      2
DK/NA                 1      2      -      -      1      1      1      -      2
 
                     DENSITY............  GUN HSHOLD    HAVE KIDS......
                     Urban  Suburb Rural  Yes    No     <18    InPubSch
 
Favor                93%    92%    87%    88%    95%    90%    93%
Oppose                6      7     13     11      5     10      7
DK/NA                 1      1      1      1      -      -      -
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
Favor                91%    91%    92%    91%    97%    96%    91%    90%
Oppose                8      8      8      9      2      4      9      9
DK/NA                 1      1      1      -      1      -      1      1
 
 
32. Do you favor or oppose placing an armed police officer in public schools in Florida?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Favor                59%    71%    53%    58%    58%    61%    56%    63%    66%
Oppose               36     26     43     37     39     33     38     36     30
DK/NA                 5      3      5      5      4      6      6      1      4
 
                     DENSITY............  GUN HSHOLD    HAVE KIDS......
                     Urban  Suburb Rural  Yes    No     <18    InPubSch
 
Favor                57%    56%    71%    67%    53%    69%    70%
Oppose               39     37     26     28     43     26     29
DK/NA                 4      6      3      5      4      5      1
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
Favor                54%    62%    65%    52%    51%    71%    62%    53%
Oppose               42     33     30     44     45     27     34     41
DK/NA                 4      5      5      5      5      2      4      6
 
 
33. Do you think that gun ownership in Florida does more to protect people from becoming victims of crime, or does more to put people's safety at risk?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Protects people      57%    77%    36%    62%    65%    49%    59%    44%    55%
Puts people at risk  33     16     50     29     27     39     32     40     33
DK/NA                10      7     14      9      7     13      9     16     12
 
                     DENSITY............  GUN HSHOLD    HAVE KIDS......
                     Urban  Suburb Rural  Yes    No     <18    InPubSch
 
Protects people      55%    52%    70%    71%    44%    60%    62%
Puts people at risk  34     38     22     19     45     29     30
DK/NA                10     10      8      9     11     11      8
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
Protects people      50%    60%    61%    53%    49%    61%    63%    51%
Puts people at risk  42     29     30     40     44     29     31     38
DK/NA                 8     11      9      7      7     10      6     11
 
 
34. Do you think allowing citizens to own assault weapons makes the country safer or more dangerous?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Safer                31%    48%    10%    39%    39%    24%    35%    11%    20%
More dangerous       60     40     88     51     52     68     56     83     69
DK/NA                 9     12      3     10      9      9      9      5     11
 
                     DENSITY............  GUN HSHOLD    HAVE KIDS......
                     Urban  Suburb Rural  Yes    No     <18    InPubSch
 
Safer                26%    28%    44%    44%    19%    40%    39%
More dangerous       64     63     47     44     75     55     56
DK/NA                 9      9      9     12      6      5      4
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
Safer                29%    32%    30%    34%    26%    37%    35%    25%
More dangerous       62     59     62     60     64     51     57     67
DK/NA                 8      9      7      7     10     12      8      7
 
 
35. Who do you think better reflects your views on guns, President Obama or the National Rifle Association?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Obama                44%    10%    75%    41%    40%    48%    40%    72%    42%
NRA                  45     85     13     47     52     39     51     12     42
BOTH (VOL)            1      1      -      -      -      1      -      -      1
NEITHER (VOL)         5      3      4      8      6      5      4      9      6
DK/NA                 5      1      7      4      2      7      4      7     10
 
                     DENSITY............  GUN HSHOLD    HAVE KIDS......
                     Urban  Suburb Rural  Yes    No     <18    InPubSch
 
Obama                49%    47%    31%    27%    59%    39%    38%
NRA                  41     43     57     61     31     48     49
BOTH (VOL)            1      -      1      1      -      1      1
NEITHER (VOL)         5      6      5      7      4      7      6
DK/NA                 5      4      6      4      6      5      5
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
Obama                54%    40%    40%    52%    57%    38%    44%    47%
NRA                  38     49     47     43     38     46     48     42
BOTH (VOL)            2      -      -      -      2      -      1      -
NEITHER (VOL)         4      6      7      1      2     11      2      5
DK/NA                 3      6      6      4      2      6      4      5
 
 

Demographic Summary