June 30, 2011 - Dead Heat In Virginia Senate Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters Split On Obama Job Approval, But Like Him

Word format


Virginia's U.S. Senate race of former governors is a dead heat with Democrat Tim Kaine at 43 percent and Republican George Allen at 42 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Equally close is the 2012 presidential race, with President Barack Obama at 43 percent and an unnamed Republican challenger at 41 percent.

In what is expected to be a tightly fought Kaine-Allen Senate race, right up to the November 2012 finish, Kaine leads 85 - 5 percent among Democrats and Allen leads 83 - 8 percent among Republicans. Independent voters, often the deciding factor, go to Allen 46 - 38 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds.

Men favor Allen 47 - 40 percent, while women back Kaine 45 - 37 percent. White voters back Allen 52 - 37 percent, as black voters back Kaine 69 - 11 percent.

"Perhaps the only surprising thing about these numbers, given the expectation of a 'to the finish' tussle for the Senate, is that one in 10 Virginia voters remains undecided. Those are the folks who will decide the identity of Virginia's next U.S. senator," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Gov. Tim Kaine has a lock on Democrats and their core demographic groups, while Gov. George Allen is in the same shape on the other side of the aisle.

"In these kinds of races, independent voters are the key."

The re-election trifecta for President Obama is just about dead even in Virginia:
  • He gets a 48 - 48 percent approval rating;
  • Voters split 47 - 47 percent on whether Obama deserves re-election;
  • He gets 43 percent to 41 percent for an unnamed GOP challenger.
In the trial heat against an unnamed Republican, the president carries Democrats 92 - 3 percent, but loses Republicans 86 - 4 percent and independent voters 41 - 35 percent. Men go Republican 46 - 38 percent, but in a 10-point gender gap, women back Obama 48 - 36 percent.

Like Gov. Bob McDonnell and virtually every other governor in the states where Quinnipiac University polls, voters are much higher on the president personally than they are about his policies. Three in four Virginians, 74 percent, say they like the president personally. Even Republicans agree, 56 - 28 percent.

But when voters are asked if they liked most of the president's policies, that overwhelming margin drops to a split 47 - 48 percent. On that question Republicans say no 87 - 9 percent and independent voters turn thumbs down 54 - 39 percent, while Democrats say yes 90 - 5 percent.

"President Barack Obama's great strength looking toward re-election in Virginia, as in many states, is that voters like him personally by an overwhelming margin. The Republicans must make this election about his policies if they are to prevail in 2012," said Brown.

Asked about some of the president's policies, Virginia voters:
  • Oppose 55 - 38 percent U.S. involvement in Afghanistan;
  • Oppose 60 - 31 percent U.S. involvement in Libya;
  • Say 49 - 42 percent that Congress should repeal the new health care law.
From June 21 - 27, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,434 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

1. If the 2012 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were - Tim Kaine the Democrat and George Allen the Republican for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Kaine                43%     8%    85%    38%    40%    45%    37%    69%
Allen                42     83      5     46     47     37     52     11
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      1      1      2      2      1      2      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      -      1      3      2      2      2      2
DK/NA(VOL)           11      8      9     11      8     14      8     17
 
                     AGE IN YRS.......    COLL DEGREE  WtBnAgn POL PHIL.........
                     18-34  35-54  55+    No     Yes    Evglcl Lib    Mod    Con
 
Kaine                59%    39%    37%    38%    50%    20%    80%    48%    19%
Allen                27     48     47     45     39     65      8     35     71
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      2      1      2      1      3      2      2      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      2      2      3      1      3      1      1      3
DK/NA(VOL)           10      9     12     12      9      9      9     14      7
 
 
4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mark Warner is handling his job as United States Senator?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Approve              57%    44%    77%    55%    52%    61%    55%    69%
Disapprove           29     42     13     32     36     22     31     17
DK/NA                14     14     10     13     12     16     14     14
 
                     AGE IN YRS.......    COLL DEGREE  WtBnAgn POL PHIL.........
                     18-34  35-54  55+    No     Yes    Evglcl Lib    Mod    Con
 
Approve              58%    56%    59%    53%    62%    47%    68%    69%    40%
Disapprove           24     33     28     32     25     37     19     20     45
DK/NA                18     11     13     15     13     16     13     12     15
 
 
5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jim Webb is handling his job as United States Senator?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Approve              50%    37%    67%    48%    51%    49%    48%    61%
Disapprove           31     44     15     34     36     28     34     19
DK/NA                18     19     18     18     13     23     17     19
 
                     AGE IN YRS.......    COLL DEGREE  WtBnAgn POL PHIL.........
                     18-34  35-54  55+    No     Yes    Evglcl Lib    Mod    Con
 
Approve              56%    48%    49%    47%    54%    38%    62%    57%    38%
Disapprove           21     35     35     34     28     43     22     25     44
DK/NA                23     17     16     19     17     19     16     18     18
 
 
6. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Approve              48%     9%    92%    41%    42%    54%    36%    88%
Disapprove           48     88      5     54     54     41     59      9
DK/NA                 4      3      3      5      4      5      4      4
 
                     AGE IN YRS.......    COLL DEGREE  WtBnAgn POL PHIL.........
                     18-34  35-54  55+    No     Yes    Evglcl Lib    Mod    Con
 
Approve              61%    47%    43%    46%    52%    22%    80%    55%    23%
Disapprove           37     49     53     51     43     75     17     41     73
DK/NA                 2      4      4      4      5      4      3      4      3
 
 
9. Looking ahead to the 2012 election for President... If the 2012 election for President were being held today, do you think you would vote for Barack Obama the Democratic candidate, or for the Republican candidate?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Obama                43%     4%    92%    35%    38%    48%    31%    85%
Republican           41     86      3     41     46     36     51      3
DEPENDS ON CAND(VOL) 10      7      2     17     10     10     11      6
DK/NA                 6      3      2      7      6      6      6      6
 
                     AGE IN YRS.......    COLL DEGREE  WtBnAgn POL PHIL.........
                     18-34  35-54  55+    No     Yes    Evglcl Lib    Mod    Con
 
Obama                56%    42%    37%    40%    48%    15%    83%    48%    17%
Republican           30     45     45     43     37     65      8     34     68
DEPENDS ON CAND(VOL)  9      8     11     10     11     13      5     12     10
DK/NA                 5      4      7      7      5      6      4      6      4
 
 
10. Do you feel that Barack Obama deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Yes/Deserves         47%     9%    91%    39%    41%    53%    35%    88%
No/Does not          47     87      5     53     53     41     58      7
DK/NA                 6      4      4      8      6      6      7      5
 
                     AGE IN YRS.......    COLL DEGREE  WtBnAgn POL PHIL.........
                     18-34  35-54  55+    No     Yes    Evglcl Lib    Mod    Con
 
Yes/Deserves         60%    45%    41%    44%    51%    19%    85%    53%    21%
No/Does not          34     49     53     50     43     74     13     39     76
DK/NA                 6      6      6      6      7      6      3      9      4
 
 
11. Regardless of how you feel about Barack Obama's policies, would you say you like or don't like Barack Obama as a person?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Like                 74%    56%    94%    76%    73%    75%    71%    90%
Don't Like           14     28      1     12     16     12     16      3
DK/NA                12     16      5     13     11     13     13      7
 
                     AGE IN YRS.......    COLL DEGREE  WtBnAgn POL PHIL.........
                     18-34  35-54  55+    No     Yes    Evglcl Lib    Mod    Con
 
Like                 85%    76%    67%    73%    77%    63%    88%    83%    58%
Don't Like            7     12     19     15     11     22      5      9     24
DK/NA                 8     12     14     12     12     15      7      8     18
 
 
12. And regardless of how you feel about Barack Obama as a person, would you say you like or don't like most of Barack Obama's policies?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Like                 47%     9%    90%    39%    41%    53%    36%    83%
Don't Like           48     87      5     54     54     41     59     11
DK/NA                 6      4      5      6      5      6      5      6
 
                     AGE IN YRS.......    COLL DEGREE  WtBnAgn POL PHIL.........
                     18-34  35-54  55+    No     Yes    Evglcl Lib    Mod    Con
 
Like                 62%    46%    39%    44%    52%    19%    82%    53%    21%
Don't Like           34     49     55     50     44     74     14     41     75
DK/NA                 3      4      6      6      4      7      4      6      4
 
 
27. Do you think the U.S. is doing the right thing by fighting the war in Afghanistan now, or should the U.S. not be involved in Afghanistan now?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Right thing          38%    54%    29%    34%    43%    33%    42%    28%
Shld not be involved 55     42     64     57     52     59     53     63
DK/NA                 7      4      7      9      5      8      6      8
 
                     AGE IN YRS.......    COLL DEGREE  WtBnAgn POL PHIL.........
                     18-34  35-54  55+    No     Yes    Evglcl Lib    Mod    Con
 
Right thing          32%    46%    33%    37%    40%    45%    28%    37%    45%
Shld not be involved 60     49     59     57     52     50     67     55     49
DK/NA                 8      4      7      6      7      4      6      8      6
 
                     Military
                     HsHlds
 
Right thing          42%
Shld not be involved 50
DK/NA                 8
 
 
28. Do you think the U.S. is doing the right thing by using military force in Libya now, or should the U.S. not be involved in Libya now?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Right thing          31%    30%    38%    29%    35%    28%    31%    33%
Shld not be involved 60     63     51     65     59     61     61     56
DK/NA                 9      7     11      6      6     11      7     11
 
                     AGE IN YRS.......    COLL DEGREE  WtBnAgn POL PHIL.........
                     18-34  35-54  55+    No     Yes    Evglcl Lib    Mod    Con
 
Right thing          34%    32%    28%    31%    32%    31%    37%    33%    26%
Shld not be involved 53     64     62     61     59     62     53     58     68
DK/NA                13      4     10      9      8      7     11      9      6
 
                     Military
                     HsHlds
 
Right thing          32%
Shld not be involved 61
DK/NA                 7
 
 
29. Do you think Congress should try to repeal the new health care law, or should they let it stand?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Repeal it            49%    81%    16%    53%    54%    44%    56%    25%
Let it stand         42      9     76     39     39     44     36     65
DK/NA                 9     10      9      8      6     12      8     10
 
                     AGE IN YRS.......    COLL DEGREE  WtBnAgn POL PHIL.........
                     18-34  35-54  55+    No     Yes    Evglcl Lib    Mod    Con
 
Repeal it            41%    55%    50%    52%    44%    70%    19%    43%    73%
Let it stand         52     38     39     37     49     21     75     48     17
DK/NA                 8      7     11     10      7      9      6      9     10