June 6, 2012 - Cuccinelli Has 3-1 Lead In 2013 Virginia GOP Gov Primary, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Dead Heat In U.S. Senate Race

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Virginia Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli holds a commanding 51 - 15 percent lead over Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling in the 2013 Republican primary for governor, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

In Virginia's U.S. Senate race, two former governors, Democrat Tim Kaine and Republican George Allen, are locked in a year-long, too-close-to-call race with 44 percent for Kaine and 43 percent for Allen.

Gov. Bob McDonnell gets a 53 - 30 percent job approval rating, matching his all-time low of 53 - 32 percent in a March 21 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

The race for governor in 2013 on the Republican side is shaping up as a battle between the lieutenant governor and attorney general with no other Republican appearing likely to enter the race. At this point Cuccinelli holds huge leads among all GOP demographic groups.

He leads among GOP men 55 - 20 percent, women 46 - 9 percent, 54 - 15 percent among conservatives and 45 - 15 percent among moderates, 51 - 15 percent among white evangelical Christians and 67 - 8 percent among those who consider themselves part of the Tea Party movement.

"While the ratio of job approval/disapproval among all voters is similar for Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling and Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli, Republicans give the attorney general much higher ratings," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "It is early in the campaign, but at this point, Cuccinelli holds a very, very strong position in the race for governor."

Among all voters Bolling has a 36 - 21 percent job approval rating compared to Cuccinelli's 46 - 29 percent. But when just Republicans are surveyed, Bolling's 48 - 12 percent trails Cuccinelli's 70 - 9 percent.

Since Quinnipiac University began polling Virginia's U.S. Senate race Kaine and Allen have been in a dead heat with neither ever holding a lead larger than the poll's margin of error.

"The Senate race looks like it will go down to the wire on Election Day," said Brown. "With 10 percent of voters undecided, each man has the opportunity to win the seat."

Kaine wins Democrats 85 - 7 percent, while Allen takes Republicans 85 - 5 percent. Independent voters go to the Republican 43 - 37 percent. Allen leads 47 - 42 percent among men while Kaine leads 45 - 39 percent among women.

On the gay marriage issue, voters for the most part do not know where the two candidates stand.

Allen opposes gay marriage, 24 percent say, while 1 percent says he supports it and the rest do not know his position. On Kaine 15 percent think he supports gay marriage, while 4 percent believe he opposes it and the rest don't know.

"The Senate race is so close that whatever small margin of victory occurs could well be based on whether President Barack Obama or Gov. Mitt Romney has coattails," said Brown.

Although Gov. McDonnell's job approval rating is among the lowest during his term, his scores are still much better than many of his gubernatorial colleagues around the country, at least in part because the Old Dominion's economy ranks among the nation's best. He gets a thumbs up 82 - 7 percent from Republicans and 48 - 33 percent among independent voters, while losing Democrats 48 - 33 percent. Men approve 59 - 27 percent as women approve 48 - 33 percent.

"Although Gov. McDonnell's numbers have come down from their highs in the 60s, he still ranks among the nation's more popular governors," Brown said.

The most popular politician in the state remains U.S. Sen. Mark Warner with a 60 - 21 percent approval rating, while retiring U.S. Sen. Jim Webb scores a 48 - 26 percent approval.

From May 30 - June 4, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,282 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The survey includes 549 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.2 percent.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.
1. (If Republican or Republican Leaner) If the 2013 Republican primary for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Bill Bolling and Ken Cuccinelli, for whom would you vote?
                     REPUBLICANS/REPUBLICAN LEANERS.............................
                                                        TEA PARTY    WhtBrnAgnEv
                     Tot    Men    Wom    Con    Mod    Yes    No     Yes    No
 
Bolling              15%    20%     9%    15%    15%     8%    18%    15%    15%
Cuccinelli           51     55     46     54     45     67     46     51     51
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      1      3      2      3      -      3      2      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      1      -      -      2      -      1      -      -
DK/NA                31     23     41     29     35     25     32     31     33
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME     AGE IN YEARS.....
                     Yes    No     <30K  30-50  50-100  >100   18-49  50-64  65+
 
Bolling              15%    14%    15%    16%    12%    17%    12%    15%    19%
Cuccinelli           53     50     41     54     57     50     45     55     56
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      2      1      -      5      1      4      -      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      1      2      2      -      1      1      1      1
DK/NA                29     33     42     27     26     30     38     29     23
 
 
9. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were George Allen the Republican and Tim Kaine the Democrat, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Allen                43%    85%     7%    43%    47%    39%    51%    16%
Kaine                44      5     85     37     42     45     38     71
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      1      1      2      2      1      1      3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      1      -      4      3      1      1      1
DK/NA                10      8      7     13      6     14      8      9
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME     AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <30K   30-50  50-100 >100   18-34  35-54  55+
 
Allen                40%    44%    39%    45%    46%    43%    35%    45%    45%
Kaine                49     40     45     40     47     48     48     44     42
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      2      -      2      2      2      1      2      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      2      3      2      2      1      3      1      1
DK/NA                 8     12     13     11      4      6     13      8     10
 
TREND: If the election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were George Allen the Republican and Tim Kaine the Democrat, for whom would you vote? (2011 wording referenced "2012 election")
                     Jun 06  Mar 20  Feb 08  Dec 21  Oct 11  Sep 15  Jun 30
                     2012    2012    2012    2011    2011    2011    2011
 
Allen                43      44      44      44      44      45      42
Kaine                44      47      45      42      45      44      43
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2       1       1       1       1       1       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2       1       2       2       1       1       2
DK/NA(VOL)           10       8       9      12       9       9      11
 
 
10. Is your opinion of George Allen favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Favorable            41%    77%    12%    40%    45%    37%    49%    19%
Unfavorable          27      5     50     29     28     27     28     35
Hvn't hrd enough     31     17     37     30     26     35     22     44
REFUSED               1      1      2      1      1      2      1      2
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME     AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <30K   30-50  50-100 >100   18-34  35-54  55+
 
Favorable            38%    43%    38%    40%    43%    40%    29%    44%    46%
Unfavorable          38     22     18     29     29     34     20     30     30
Hvn't hrd enough     23     35     44     28     27     25     50     25     23
REFUSED               1      1      1      2      1      1      1      1      2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of George Allen favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Jun 06  Mar 20  Feb 08  Dec 21  Oct 11
                     2012    2012    2012    2011    2011
 
Favorable            41      41      42      41      45
Unfavorable          27      26      29      27      28
Hvn't hrd enough     31      32      27      30      26
REFUSED               1       1       1       2       1
 
 
11. Is your opinion of Tim Kaine favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Favorable            44%    17%    75%    39%    46%    43%    42%    64%
Unfavorable          28     55      5     30     33     24     35      8
Hvn't hrd enough     26     26     19     29     20     31     22     26
REFUSED               2      2      1      1      1      2      1      1
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME     AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <30K   30-50  50-100 >100   18-34  35-54  55+
 
Favorable            53%    39%    38%    41%    48%    52%    44%    46%    42%
Unfavorable          29     28     21     30     31     30     17     31     33
Hvn't hrd enough     17     31     38     27     19     17     39     21     23
REFUSED               1      2      2      2      2      1      1      1      2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Tim Kaine favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Jun 06  Mar 20  Feb 08  Dec 21  Oct 11
                     2012    2012    2012    2011    2011
 
Favorable            44      48      46      42      47
Unfavorable          28      29      29      27      29
Hvn't hrd enough     26      23      25      28      23
REFUSED               2       1       1       2       1
 
 
12. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bob McDonnell is handling his job as Governor?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Approve              53%    82%    33%    48%    59%    48%    60%    39%
Disapprove           30      7     48     33     27     33     26     40
DK/NA                17     12     19     18     14     20     14     20
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME     AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <30K   30-50  50-100 >100   18-34  35-54  55+
 
Approve              53%    54%    47%    53%    56%    57%    41%    57%    57%
Disapprove           34     28     30     28     36     30     34     29     28
DK/NA                14     19     24     19      8     13     25     14     15
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bob McDonnell is handling his job as Governor?
                     Jun 06  Mar 21  Feb 09  Dec 22  Oct 12  Sep 14  Jun 29
                     2012    2012    2012    2011    2011    2011    2011
 
Approve              53      53      58      57      62      61      55
Disapprove           30      32      24      21      22      21      26
DK/NA                17      14      18      22      16      18      19
 
 
13. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Approve              41%    60%    29%    34%    48%    34%    43%    37%
Disapprove           44     24     55     52     41     47     43     45
DK/NA                16     16     16     14     12     19     14     18
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME     AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <30K   30-50  50-100 >100   18-34  35-54  55+
 
Approve              40%    41%    44%    37%    42%    44%    42%    45%    36%
Disapprove           48     42     41     47     46     47     44     43     45
DK/NA                12     17     15     16     11      9     14     12     19
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
                     Jun 06  Mar 21  Feb 09  Dec 22  Oct 12  Sep 14  Jun 29
                     2012    2012    2012    2011    2011    2011    2011
 
Approve              41      38      47      46      47      48      48
Disapprove           44      47      37      36      35      34      33
DK/NA                16      15      17      18      18      18      19
 
 
14. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mark Warner is handling his job as United States Senator?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Approve              60%    43%    79%    55%    59%    61%    59%    73%
Disapprove           21     34      7     26     25     18     24      9
DK/NA                19     23     14     19     16     21     17     18
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME     AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <30K   30-50  50-100 >100   18-34  35-54  55+
 
Approve              62%    60%    61%    55%    62%    65%    59%    62%    60%
Disapprove           23     20     17     23     24     20     17     20     25
DK/NA                16     20     22     23     14     16     25     18     15
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mark Warner is handling his job as United States Senator?
                     Jun 06  Mar 21  Feb 09  Dec 22  Oct 12  Sep 14  Jun 30
                     2012    2012    2012    2011    2011    2011    2011
 
Approve              60      62      64      62      61      64      57
Disapprove           21      23      22      23      24      22      29
DK/NA                19      16      14      16      15      13      14
 
 
15. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jim Webb is handling his job as United States Senator?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Approve              48%    31%    66%    49%    52%    45%    48%    54%
Disapprove           26     40      9     29     29     24     29     17
DK/NA                25     28     25     22     20     30     24     29
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME     AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <30K   30-50  50-100 >100   18-34  35-54  55+
 
Approve              55%    44%    51%    41%    51%    55%    54%    50%    44%
Disapprove           28     26     21     32     28     27     23     26     30
DK/NA                17     30     28     26     22     18     24     24     27
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jim Webb is handling his job as United States Senator?
                     Jun 06  Mar 21  Feb 09  Dec 22  Oct 12  Sep 14  Jun 30
                     2012    2012    2012    2011    2011    2011    2011
 
Approve              48      49      52      48      51      51      50
Disapprove           26      28      26      29      27      30      31
DK/NA                25      23      22      23      22      19      18
 
 
17. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Bolling is handling his job as Lieutenant Governor?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Approve              36%    48%    27%    35%    41%    31%    35%    34%
Disapprove           21     12     28     21     22     19     20     26
DK/NA                44     40     45     44     37     49     45     40
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME     AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <30K   30-50  50-100 >100   18-34  35-54  55+
 
Approve              31%    38%    38%    35%    34%    38%    45%    34%    33%
Disapprove           24     19     21     21     25     21     21     21     20
DK/NA                45     43     41     44     41     41     34     45     47
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Bolling is handling his job as Lieutenant Governor?
                     Jun 06  Mar 21  Feb 09  Dec 22  Oct 12  Sep 14  Jun 29
                     2012    2012    2012    2011    2011    2011    2011
 
Approve              36      36      38      35      35      39      39
Disapprove           21      21      19      18      17      15      20
DK/NA                44      43      43      46      48      45      42
 
 
18. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ken Cuccinelli is handling his job as Virginia Attorney General?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Approve              46%    70%    28%    40%    53%    39%    48%    44%
Disapprove           29      9     45     34     29     30     30     31
DK/NA                25     21     27     26     19     30     22     25
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME     AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <30K   30-50  50-100 >100   18-34  35-54  55+
 
Approve              42%    48%    45%    48%    51%    43%    42%    46%    48%
Disapprove           39     24     23     30     32     35     27     31     29
DK/NA                19     28     32     22     17     22     31     22     23
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ken Cuccinelli is handling his job as Virginia Attorney General?
                     Jun 06  Mar 21  Feb 09  Dec 22  Oct 12  Sep 14  Jun 29
                     2012    2012    2012    2011    2011    2011    2011
 
Approve              46      45      46      47      46      47      49
Disapprove           29      32      31      27      30      29      31
DK/NA                25      23      23      26      24      24      20
 
 
30. Do you happen to know whether George Allen supports or opposes same-sex marriage?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Supports              1%     1%     1%     1%     1%     1%     1%     2%
Opposes              24     27     26     23     29     20     29     15
Don't know           74     71     73     76     69     79     70     82
REFUSED               1      1      -      1      1      1      1      1
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME     AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <30K   30-50  50-100 >100   18-34  35-54  55+
 
Supports              1%     1%     1%     1%     -      2%     1%     1%     1%
Opposes              34     18     16     21     27     34     18     29     24
Don't know           65     80     83     78     71     64     80     70     74
REFUSED               1      1      -      -      2      -      1      -      1
 
 
31. Do you happen to know whether Tim Kaine supports or opposes same-sex marriage?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Supports             15%    18%    15%    14%    19%    11%    17%     8%
Opposes               4      4      5      4      4      5      4      6
Don't know           80     78     80     80     77     83     78     84
REFUSED               1      1      -      1      1      1      1      1
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME     AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <30K   30-50  50-100 >100   18-34  35-54  55+
 
Supports             20%    12%    11%    12%    15%    20%    14%    16%    14%
Opposes               5      4      5      5      5      5      5      5      4
Don't know           75     83     84     82     79     75     81     79     81
REFUSED               1      1      -      1      2      -      1      -      2
 

Demographic Summary