November 14, 2012 - Sen. Warner Has Big Early Lead In Virginia Gov Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters Say Economy Will Get Better With Obama

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If U.S. Sen. Mark Warner wants to be governor of Virginia again in 2013, he would begin the campaign as the overwhelming favorite, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. If Warner does not want another four years in the Executive Mansion in Richmond, Terry McAuliffe, the former Democratic National Committee Chair, and Republicans Bill Bolling, the lieutenant governor, and Ken Cuccinelli, the state attorney general, start off basically even.

Warner, who says he will decide whether to run for governor or remain in the U.S. Senate by Thanksgiving, tops Lt. Gov. Bolling 53 - 33 percent and beats Attorney General Cuccinelli 52 - 34 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University survey finds.

If McAuliffe is the Democratic candidate, he would get 38 percent to 36 percent for Bolling, and 41 percent to 37 percent for Cuccinelli.

"If Sen. Mark Warner decides to run, he begins the campaign as the prohibitive favorite," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "He is much better known and much better liked than either of the Republican aspirants and his job approval rating - 60 percent - is the highest of any statewide elected official.

"Terry McAuliffe is another story, however. He is not well known and his rating among those who have an opinion of him it is not all that impressive. Bolling also is not well known, although he is slightly better liked at this point than is McAuliffe. Cuccinelli is somewhat better known than Bolling and McAuliffe. At this point McAuliffe is benefitting from his Democratic identification, which reflects the party's positive image in the state after President Barack Obama's victory and the president's 52 percent job approval."

"Virginia voters say 35 - 18 percent that they would prefer Warner stay in the U.S. Senate, rather than run for governor. Another 30 percent, mostly Republicans, want him to do neither," Brown added.

Asked whether they have a positive or negative view of the potential candidates for governor, Warner gets a 58 - 20 percent favorable verdict:
  • McAuliffe gets a 17 - 13 percent favorability with 68 percent who don't know enough about him to form an opinion;
  • Cuccinelli is at 29 - 24 percent, with 45 percent who don't know enough about him;
  • Bolling gets a 20 - 8 percent score, with 70 percent who don't know enough about him.
Among Republicans, Cuccinelli has a 59 - 5 percent favorability rating, while Bolling is at 44 - 2 percent favorable.

Virginia registered voters say 58 - 39 percent they are optimistic about the next four years with Obama as president. By the end of the president's second term, they expect 51 - 31 percent that the economy will be better than it is now.

Voters say 58 - 37 percent that Obama and congressional Democrats are more likely to make a "good faith" effort to work with congressional Republicans on issues important to voters. They split 46 - 47 percent on whether congressional Republicans will make a "good faith" effort.

From November 8 - 12, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,469 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

1. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Terry McAuliffe the Democrat and Bill Bolling the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
McAuliffe            38%     2%    79%    28%    36%    39%    29%    68%
Bolling              36     83      3     33     42     30     46      9
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      -      2      1      1      1      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      1      -      2      2      -      1      1
DK/NA                24     14     18     36     19     29     23     21
 
                     WHITE................................................
                     COLLEGE DEG   MARRIED...    SINGLE....    BornAgain
                     Yes    No     Men    Wom    Men    Wom    Evangelical
 
McAuliffe            40%    23%    28%    26%    27%    38%    14%
Bolling              37     51     53     47     47     32     61
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      2      2      -      2      2      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      1      1      -      3      1      1
DK/NA                21     24     17     27     22     28     23
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   POL PHIL.........    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     Lib    Mod    Con    18-34  35-54  55+
 
McAuliffe            47%    33%    72%    46%    11%    38%    41%    35%
Bolling              31     39      5     24     67     28     38     40
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      2      2      -      2      1      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      1      -      2      -      2      1      1
DK/NA                21     26     20     28     20     31     19     22
 
 
2. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Terry McAuliffe the Democrat and Ken Cuccinelli the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
McAuliffe            41%     2%    82%    33%    39%    42%    33%    66%
Cuccinelli           37     84      2     34     44     31     48      8
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      1      -      1      1      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      1      -      1      1      1      1      1
DK/NA                21     13     16     30     16     25     18     25
 
                     WHITE................................................
                     COLLEGE DEG   MARRIED...    SINGLE....    BornAgain
                     Yes    No     Men    Wom    Men    Wom    Evangelical
 
McAuliffe            46%    25%    31%    29%    29%    42%    16%
Cuccinelli           37     54     56     51     49     31     63
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      1      -      1      1      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      -      -      1      -      1      1
DK/NA                16     20     12     20     21     25     20
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   POL PHIL.........    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     Lib    Mod    Con    18-34  35-54  55+
 
McAuliffe            52%    34%    75%    48%    13%    42%    42%    39%
Cuccinelli           31     41      5     27     69     30     41     39
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      -      1      -      -      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      -      1      1      -      1      -      1
DK/NA                15     24     18     24     17     27     17     20
 
 
3. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Mark Warner the Democrat and Bill Bolling the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Warner               53%    12%    90%    51%    49%    56%    43%    85%
Bolling              33     80      2     25     39     27     43      5
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      1      -      -      -      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      -      -      1      1      -      1      1
DK/NA                14      8      8     22     10     16     13      9
 
                     WHITE................................................
                     COLLEGE DEG   MARRIED...    SINGLE....    BornAgain
                     Yes    No     Men    Wom    Men    Wom    Evangelical
 
Warner               56%    35%    40%    42%    41%    50%    26%
Bolling              33     49     50     44     44     30     58
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      1      -      -      -      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      1      1      -      -      1      1
DK/NA                10     15      9     14     14     19     14
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   POL PHIL.........    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     Lib    Mod    Con    18-34  35-54  55+
 
Warner               63%    47%    82%    65%    23%    55%    56%    49%
Bolling              27     36      7     19     65     23     35     38
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      1      -      -      1      1      1      -
DK/NA                 9     16     11     15     11     20      8     12
 
 
4. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Mark Warner the Democrat and Ken Cuccinelli the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Warner               52%     8%    91%    49%    48%    54%    42%    84%
Cuccinelli           34     81      1     27     40     29     44      5
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      1      1      -      -      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      1      -      1      1      -      1      1
DK/NA                14     10      7     21     10     16     13     10
 
                     WHITE................................................
                     COLLEGE DEG   MARRIED...    SINGLE....    BornAgain
                     Yes    No     Men    Wom    Men    Wom    Evangelical
 
Warner               55%    34%    39%    40%    39%    51%    26%
Cuccinelli           35     49     49     45     45     31     56
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      1      -      -      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      1      1      -      1      -      1
DK/NA                 9     15      9     15     14     17     17
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   POL PHIL.........    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     Lib    Mod    Con    18-34  35-54  55+
 
Warner               63%    45%    86%    62%    21%    53%    54%    49%
Cuccinelli           28     37      4     23     64     26     37     37
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      -      -      -      -      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      1      1      -      1      1      -      -
DK/NA                 8     17      8     15     13     20      8     13
 
 
5. Is your opinion of - Terry McAuliffe favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Favorable            17%     5%    30%    15%    20%    16%    16%    23%
Unfavorable          13     25      4     13     18      9     17      3
Hvn't hrd enough     68     69     65     71     61     74     67     71
REFUSED               1      1      1      1      1      1      1      3
 
 
6. Is your opinion of - Mark Warner favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Favorable            58%    32%    79%    59%    57%    58%    54%    71%
Unfavorable          20     42      3     17     24     16     25      5
Hvn't hrd enough     20     21     16     23     17     22     19     22
REFUSED               2      5      1      1      1      3      2      2
 
 
7. Is your opinion of - Ken Cuccinelli favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Favorable            29%    59%     5%    28%    35%    25%    35%    12%
Unfavorable          24      5     41     23     26     22     24     23
Hvn't hrd enough     45     34     51     48     38     51     40     61
REFUSED               2      2      2      1      1      3      1      5
 
 
8. Is your opinion of - Bill Bolling favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Favorable            20%    44%     4%    17%    24%    17%    26%     5%
Unfavorable           8      2     12      9      9      7      7      8
Hvn't hrd enough     70     54     81     74     65     75     66     84
REFUSED               1      1      2      -      1      1      1      4
 
 
12. Do you approve or disapprove of the way - Mark Warner is handling his job as United States Senator?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Approve              60%    35%    82%    60%    61%    59%    55%    76%
Disapprove           25     47      6     23     29     20     30      9
DK/NA                16     18     12     17     10     20     15     15
 
                     AREA........................
                                   East/  West/
                     North  SthEst Rchmnd Shndoah
 
Approve              63%    64%    55%    60%
Disapprove           21     18     28     29
DK/NA                16     18     16     10
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mark Warner is handling his job as United States Senator? (*High also 64% Sep 2011, **Low also 57% Jun 2011)
                                                             APPROVE.......
                                                             High    Low
                     Nov 14  Jul 18  Jun 06  Mar 21  Feb 09  Feb 09  Jul 18
                     2012    2012    2012    2012    2012    2012*   2012**
 
Approve              60      57      60      62      64      64      57
Disapprove           25      24      21      23      22      22      24
DK/NA                16      19      19      16      14      14      19
 
 
13. Do you approve or disapprove of the way - Jim Webb is handling his job as United States Senator?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Approve              44%    25%    59%    49%    45%    44%    43%    48%
Disapprove           28     45     15     24     32     24     32     20
DK/NA                28     31     26     27     23     32     25     32
 
                     AREA........................
                                   East/  West/
                     North  SthEst Rchmnd Shndoah
 
Approve              53%    44%    42%    39%
Disapprove           20     29     32     29
DK/NA                28     27     26     32
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jim Webb is handling his job as United States Senator?
                                                             APPROVE.......
                                                             High    Low
                     Nov 14  Jul 18  Jun 06  Mar 21  Feb 09  Feb 09  Jul 18
                     2012    2012    2012    2012    2012    2012    2012
 
Approve              44      43      48      49      52      52      43
Disapprove           28      30      26      28      26      26      30
DK/NA                28      26      25      23      22      22      26
 
 
14. Do you approve or disapprove of the way - Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Approve              52%     5%    94%    50%    47%    56%    40%    88%
Disapprove           44     93      3     45     50     38     56      6
DK/NA                 4      2      3      5      2      5      4      6
 
                     WHITE................................................
                     COLLEGE DEG   MARRIED...    SINGLE....    BornAgain
                     Yes    No     Men    Wom    Men    Wom    Evangelical
 
Approve              54%    32%    34%    37%    42%    53%    23%
Disapprove           44     63     63     59     57     42     74
DK/NA                 2      5      3      4      2      5      3
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   POL PHIL.........    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     Lib    Mod    Con    18-34  35-54  55+
 
Approve              62%    47%    93%    61%    18%    56%    55%    48%
Disapprove           36     48      6     34     77     38     42     50
DK/NA                 2      5      1      5      4      6      3      2
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
                                                             APPROVE.......
                                                             High    Low
                     Nov 14  Jul 19  Jun 07  Mar 20  Feb 08  Nov 14  Sep 15
                     2012    2012    2012    2012    2012    2012    2011
 
Approve              52      45      48      49      46      52      40
Disapprove           44      51      47      47      49      44      54
DK/NA                 4       4       5       4       5       4       6
 
 
15. Do you approve or disapprove of the way - Bill Bolling is handling his job as Lieutenant Governor?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Approve              38%    55%    27%    35%    42%    33%    40%    32%
Disapprove           15      7     22     14     16     13     15     16
DK/NA                47     37     52     51     41     53     45     52
 
                     AREA........................
                                   East/  West/
                     North  SthEst Rchmnd Shndoah
 
Approve              28%    35%    44%    42%
Disapprove           13     16     16     13
DK/NA                58     48     40     45
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Bolling is handling his job as Lieutenant Governor? (*High also 39% Jun 2011, **Low also 35% Oct 2011)
                                                             APPROVE.......
                                                             High    Low
                     Nov 14  Jul 18  Jun 06  Mar 21  Feb 09  Sep 14  Dec 22
                     2012    2012    2012    2012    2012    2011*   2011**
 
Approve              38      36      36      36      38      39      35
Disapprove           15      19      21      21      19      15      18
DK/NA                47      45      44      43      43      45      46
 
 
16. Do you approve or disapprove of the way - Ken Cuccinelli is handling his job as Virginia Attorney General?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Approve              43%    69%    23%    42%    48%    39%    47%    34%
Disapprove           29      7     46     30     30     27     28     32
DK/NA                28     25     31     28     22     34     25     34
 
                     AREA........................
                                   East/  West/
                     North  SthEst Rchmnd Shndoah
 
Approve              33%    44%    49%    46%
Disapprove           37     22     28     26
DK/NA                30     34     24     28
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ken Cuccinelli is handling his job as Virginia Attorney General?
                                                             APPROVE.......
                                                             High    Low
                     Nov 14  Jul 18  Jun 06  Mar 21  Feb 09  Jun 29  Nov 14
                     2012    2012    2012    2012    2012    2011    2012
 
Approve              43      44      46      45      46      49      43
Disapprove           29      31      29      32      31      31      29
DK/NA                28      25      25      23      23      20      28
 
 
18. Are you generally optimistic or pessimistic about the next four years with Barack Obama as president?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Optimistic           58%    14%    95%    56%    51%    64%    47%    92%
Pessimistic          39     84      3     39     46     33     50      5
DK/NA                 3      2      2      5      3      3      2      3
 
                     WHITE................................................
                     COLLEGE DEG   MARRIED...    SINGLE....    BornAgain
                     Yes    No     Men    Wom    Men    Wom    Evangelical
 
Optimistic           57%    41%    39%    44%    50%    62%    28%
Pessimistic          42     55     58     53     49     35     68
DK/NA                 1      4      3      3      1      2      4
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   POL PHIL.........    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     Lib    Mod    Con    18-34  35-54  55+
 
Optimistic           64%    54%    94%    67%    26%    64%    62%    51%
Pessimistic          35     41      4     29     72     33     35     47
DK/NA                 1      5      3      3      3      3      3      3
 
 
19. By the end of Barack Obama's second term in office, do you expect the economy to be better than it is today, worse than it is today, or about the same?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Better               51%     8%    87%    50%    48%    54%    40%    87%
Worse                31     70      1     30     36     27     40      2
About the same       16     21     10     20     15     17     18     10
DK/NA                 1      1      1      1      1      2      1      -
 
                     WHITE................................................
                     COLLEGE DEG   MARRIED...    SINGLE....    BornAgain
                     Yes    No     Men    Wom    Men    Wom    Evangelical
 
Better               53%    32%    36%    36%    42%    52%    24%
Worse                29     48     41     45     45     28     57
About the same       18     19     22     17     13     18     17
DK/NA                 1      1      -      2      -      2      1
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   POL PHIL.........    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     Lib    Mod    Con    18-34  35-54  55+
 
Better               59%    47%    89%    61%    18%    54%    54%    46%
Worse                24     35      4     21     60     28     29     36
About the same       16     17      7     17     21     16     17     16
DK/NA                 1      1      1      1      1      1      -      2
 
 
20. Do you think - the Republicans in Congress will or will not make a good faith effort to cooperate with President Obama and the Democrats on issues that are important to you?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Will make effort     46%    65%    30%    44%    46%    46%    47%    41%
Will not make effort 47     28     64     48     48     45     45     54
DK/NA                 7      7      7      8      6      9      8      5
 
                     WHITE................................................
                     COLLEGE DEG   MARRIED...    SINGLE....    BornAgain
                     Yes    No     Men    Wom    Men    Wom    Evangelical
 
Will make effort     40%    52%    47%    49%    46%    44%    58%
Will not make effort 52     40     47     41     47     43     34
DK/NA                 8      8      5     10      6     13      8
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   POL PHIL.........    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     Lib    Mod    Con    18-34  35-54  55+
 
Will make effort     39%    50%    30%    42%    60%    42%    45%    49%
Will not make effort 53     43     63     51     34     53     51     40
DK/NA                 8      7      7      8      7      5      4     11
 
 
21. Do you think - President Obama and the Democrats in Congress will or will not, make a good faith effort to cooperate with the Republicans on issues that are important to you?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Will make effort     58%    21%    93%    54%    52%    64%    48%    92%
Will not make effort 37     75      4     40     44     31     48      6
DK/NA                 4      4      3      6      4      5      5      2
 
                     WHITE................................................
                     COLLEGE DEG   MARRIED...    SINGLE....    BornAgain
                     Yes    No     Men    Wom    Men    Wom    Evangelical
 
Will make effort     60%    41%    38%    48%    53%    59%    31%
Will not make effort 38     54     59     47     41     35     65
DK/NA                 3      6      2      5      6      6      4
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   POL PHIL.........    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     Lib    Mod    Con    18-34  35-54  55+
 
Will make effort     65%    55%    92%    67%    29%    64%    62%    51%
Will not make effort 32     41      6     28     68     32     34     45
DK/NA                 3      5      2      5      4      4      4      4
 
 
23. Which would you prefer, that Mark Warner run for governor in 2013 or that he run for reelection to the US Senate in 2014 or that he does neither of these things?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Governor 2013        18%     5%    27%    19%    15%    21%    15%    28%
US Senate 2014       35     23     44     38     38     33     33     38
Neither              30     56     12     25     34     27     36     15
DK/NA                17     16     17     18     14     20     16     19
 
                     AREA........................
                                   East/  West/
                     North  SthEst Rchmnd Shndoah
 
Governor 2013        18%    18%    18%    16%
US Senate 2014       41     35     30     36
Neither              25     25     34     35
DK/NA                17     21     17     13
 

Demographic Summary