October 30, 2013 - Mcauliffe Up By 4 Points In Close Virginia Gov Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Libertarian Has 9 Percent
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The Virginia governor's race is going down to the wire with Democrat Terry McAuliffe clinging to a slight 45 - 41 percent likely voter lead over Republican State Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli, and 9 percent for Libertarian Party candidate Robert Sarvis, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to the results of an October 23 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University, showing McAuliffe up 46 - 39 percent, with Sarvis at 10 percent.

Today's survey shows that if Sarvis were not in the race, McAuliffe would have 47 percent to 45 percent for Cuccinelli, too close to call.

In the three-way matchup, 4 percent of likely voters remain undecided and 7 percent of those who name a candidate say there's a "good chance" they will change their mind in the next six days.

McAuliffe leads 91 - 2 percent among Democrats, with 4 percent for Sarvis, while Cuccinelli leads 86 - 5 percent among Republicans, with 7 percent for Sarvis. Independent voters go to McAuliffe 46 - 31 percent, with 16 percent for Sarvis.

Women back the Democrat 50 - 37 percent, with 7 percent for Sarvis. Men go to Cuccinelli 45 - 39 percent with 11 percent for Sarvis.

"State Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli is nipping at Terry McAuliffe's heels as the race to be Virginia's next governor enters the final week of the campaign," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "It goes without saying that turnout is the key to this race and the harshly negative tone of the campaign is the kind that often turns off voters."

"With the race this close, the final decision by the roughly one in 10 voters who are supporting Libertarian Robert Sarvis has become even more critical. Nationally, third-party candidates often lose support in the end as voters enter the voting booth and back someone they consider the lesser of two evils. Only six in 10 Sarvis supporters say they definitely will vote for him. Almost nine in 10 McAuliffe and Cuccinelli backers are committed.

"Cuccinelli seems to be benefitting from Republicans coming home, but McAuliffe still does a little better among Democrats than Cuccinelli does among GOPers. And, McAuliffe leads among independents, perhaps the key voting group. It is difficult to see Cuccinelli winning if he can't run at least even or slightly ahead among independents. Here, too, Sarvis' voters matter greatly since the libertarian is getting 16 percent of independents, but only 9 percent overall."

Virginia likely voters give McAuliffe a negative 41 - 46 percent favorability rating, compared to a negative 40 - 52 percent for Cuccinelli. For Sarvis, 75 percent don't know enough to form an opinion.

From October 22 - 28, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,182 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa and the nation as a public service and for research. For more information, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

1. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Terry McAuliffe the Democrat, Ken Cuccinelli the Republican, and Robert Sarvis the Libertarian, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward McAuliffe, Cuccinelli, or Sarvis? (Table includes leaners)
                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
McAuliffe            45%     5%    91%    46%    39%    50%    36%    85%
Cuccinelli           41     86      2     31     45     37     49      9
Sarvis                9      7      4     16     11      7     11      4
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      1      1      -      1      -
DK/NA                 4      2      3      6      4      5      3      3
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
McAuliffe            55%    37%    48%    46%    45%    52%    43%    44%
Cuccinelli           33     48     39     40     44     41     41     42
Sarvis                8     10      9      9     10      5     12      9
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      1      -      -      1      1
DK/NA                 4      4      3      4      1      2      3      4
 
TREND: If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Terry McAuliffe the Democrat, Ken Cuccinelli the Republican, and Robert Sarvis the Libertarian, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward McAuliffe, Cuccinelli, or Sarvis? (Table includes leaners)
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................
                     Oct 30  Oct 23  Oct 10  Sep 18
                     2013    2013    2013    2013
 
McAuliffe            45      46      47      44
Cuccinelli           41      39      39      41
Sarvis                9      10       8       7
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       1       -       1
DK/NA                 4       4       5       6
 
 
1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Will you definitely vote for (Candidate of choice), or is there a chance you could change your mind and vote for another of the candidates? IF CHANGE MIND: Would you say there's a good chance you'll change your mind, or would you say it's pretty unlikely?
                     LIKELY VOTERS............................
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1......................
                             CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1............
                     Tot     McAuliffe     Cuccinelli    Sarvis
                             
Def vote for cand    85%     86%           88%           62%
Unlikely to change    7       6             5            15
Good chance change    7       5             6            18
DK/NA                 2       2             1             4
 
TREND: (If candidate chosen) Will you definitely vote for (Candidate of choice), or is there a chance you could change your mind and vote for another of the candidates? IF CHANGE MIND: Would you say there's a good chance you'll change your mind, or would you say it's pretty unlikely?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN..............
                     Oct 30  Oct 23  Oct 10  Sep 18
                     2013    2013    2013    2013
 
Def vote for cand    85      82      79      77
Unlikely to change    7       9       9       8
Good chance change    7       7      11      12
DK/NA                 2       1       1       2
 
 
1b. (If candidate chosen q1) Would you describe your support for (Candidate of choice) as strongly favoring him, or do you like him but with reservations, or do you support him because you dislike the other candidates?
                     LIKELY VOTERS............................
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1......................
                             CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1............
                     Tot     McAuliffe     Cuccinelli    Sarvis
                             
Strongly favor       43%     39%           53%           22%
Like/Reservations    23      27            22             9
Dislike other cands  32      33            22            68
DK/NA                 2       2             3             -
 
TREND: (If candidate chosen) Would you describe your support for (Candidate of choice) as strongly favoring him, or do you like him but with reservations, or do you support him because you dislike the other candidates?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN......
                     Oct 30  Oct 23  Oct 10
                     2013    2013    2013
 
Strongly favor       43      39      40
Like/Reservations    23      28      27
Dislike other cands  32      30      31
DK/NA                 2       3       3
 
 
1c. (If voting for Sarvis q1) Who is your second choice? (* q1 Recalculated gubernatorial vote without Sarvis using second choice question)
                     LIKELY VOTERS WITHOUT SARVIS........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
McAuliffe            47%     7%    92%    50%    41%    52%    38%    86%
Cuccinelli           45     89      2     37     50     39     54      9
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      1      1      3      1      2      2      1
DK/NA                 7      3      5     10      7      7      6      5
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
McAuliffe            57%    39%    51%    47%    48%    53%    46%    46%
Cuccinelli           35     52     41     43     48     45     45     45
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      2      1      2      1      -      2      2
DK/NA                 6      7      7      8      3      2      8      7
 
TREND: (If voting for Sarvis) Who is your second choice? (* Recalculated gubernatorial vote without Sarvis using second choice question)
                     LIKELY VOTERS WITHOUT SARVIS
                     Oct 30  Oct 23  Oct 10
                     2013    2013    2013
 
McAuliffe            47      50      49
Cuccinelli           45      42      42
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2       2       1
DK/NA                 7       7       7
 
 
2. Is your opinion of Terry McAuliffe favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Favorable            41%     7%    82%    41%    36%    46%    32%    77%
Unfavorable          46     77      8     48     49     42     56     10
Hvn't hrd enough     11     14      7     10     13      9     10     10
REFUSED               2      1      2      2      2      3      1      3
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
Favorable            50%    34%    42%    44%    43%    48%    39%    42%
Unfavorable          42     48     41     43     51     37     50     46
Hvn't hrd enough      6     15     14     12      5     13     10     11
REFUSED               2      2      2      2      1      1      2      2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Terry McAuliffe favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Oct 30  Oct 23  Oct 10  Sep 18  Aug 21
                     2013    2013    2013    2013    2013
 
Favorable            41      39      41      38      34
Unfavorable          46      43      40      38      33
Hvn't hrd enough     11      16      16      22      31
REFUSED               2       2       3       2       1
 
 
3. Is your opinion of Ken Cuccinelli favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Favorable            40%    80%     4%    30%    43%    36%    48%    11%
Unfavorable          52     12     88     62     47     56     46     77
Hvn't hrd enough      6      6      6      6      7      5      5      9
REFUSED               3      3      1      2      2      3      2      3
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
Favorable            31%    47%    38%    38%    41%    42%    39%    40%
Unfavorable          62     44     50     55     56     47     54     52
Hvn't hrd enough      4      7     10      5      3      9      6      5
REFUSED               3      2      2      2      -      2      1      3
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Ken Cuccinelli favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Oct 30  Oct 23  Oct 10  Sep 18  Aug 21
                     2013    2013    2013    2013    2013
 
Favorable            40      38      39      34      35
Unfavorable          52      52      49      51      41
Hvn't hrd enough      6       9      10      13      22
REFUSED               3       1       2       1       2
 
 
4. Is your opinion of Robert Sarvis favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Favorable            12%    11%     4%    18%    15%     9%    13%     5%
Unfavorable          11     13     10     11     12     10     12     12
Hvn't hrd enough     75     74     85     69     72     78     74     83
REFUSED               2      1      1      1      1      3      1      1
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
Favorable            12%    12%    12%    11%    12%     7%    14%    12%
Unfavorable          10     12     12      9     12     16      8     12
Hvn't hrd enough     76     74     75     79     75     76     76     74
REFUSED               2      2      1      2      -      1      1      2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Robert Sarvis favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................
                     Oct 30  Oct 23  Oct 10  Sep 18
                     2013    2013    2013    2013
 
Favorable            12      13      10       8
Unfavorable          11       8       7       6
Hvn't hrd enough     75      78      80      85
REFUSED               2       1       2       1
 
 

Demographic Summary