November 4, 2013 - McAuliffe Has 6-Point Lead In Close Virginia Gov Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Libertarian Has 8 Percent
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In the final day of the hard-fought Virginia governor's race, Democrat Terry McAuliffe has a 46 - 40 percent likely voter lead over Republican State Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli, with 8 percent for Libertarian Party candidate Robert Sarvis, according to a Quinnipiac University poll completed last night and released today.

This compares to a 45 - 41 percent McAuliffe lead in an October survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. Today, 5 percent of likely voters remain undecided and 5 percent of those who name a candidate say there's a good chance they will change their mind by tomorrow's Election Day.

There is a large gender gap as McAuliffe leads 50 - 36 percent among women, with 9 percent for Sarvis, while men are divided with 44 percent for Cuccinelli, 42 percent for McAuliffe and 8 percent for Sarvis. Democrats go 93 - 1 percent for McAuliffe, with 3 percent for Sarvis, while Republicans go 85 - 5 percent for Cuccinelli, with 7 percent for Sarvis. Independent voters are divided 40 - 40 percent, with 14 percent for Sarvis.

"Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli made the race to become Virginia's next governor interesting. But barring a late surge of Republicans returning to the fold and independents jumping on the GOP train, Terry McAuliffe has a small but steady lead that is formidable entering the final day of the campaign," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"All year long, Cuccinelli has suffered from an inability to unite the Republican base, and if today's data holds true for another 24 hours, analysts may look back at his 85 percent of the GOP vote as his fatal flaw, while McAuliffe was getting 93 percent of the Democratic vote."

Cuccinelli wins the enthusiasm race among Virginia likely voters: 54 percent of his backers strongly favor him, compared to 39 percent of McAuliffe supporters and 14 percent of Sarvis backers. Among Sarvis supporters, 74 percent say they back the Libertarian because they dislike the other candidates.

With Sarvis out of the race, McAuliffe leads 49 - 42 percent.

"Libertarian Robert Sarvis continues to get almost one in 10 votes, apparently taking many of the Republican and independent votes Cuccinelli needs," Brown added. "If Sarvis' supporters stay with him in those numbers it is difficult to see where Cuccinelli can find enough votes to turn his fortunes around.

"To make a comeback in the final hours Cuccinelli will need to take virtually all the undecided; peel off a few percent from Sarvis and hope that his turnout operation is superior to that of McAuliffe. Obviously that is a longshot formula for victory. The good news for Cuccinelli is that his supporters seem more enthusiastic about their guy than are the McAuliffe backers, but there just doesn't seem to be enough of them to get Cuccinelli over the top."

In the race to the bottom, McAuliffe gets a negative 42 - 45 percent favorability rating from Virginia likely voters, compared to Cuccinelli's negative 38 - 52 percent. For Sarvis, 70 percent still haven't heard enough to form an opinion.

From October 29 - November 3, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,606 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa and the nation as a public service and for research. For more information, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

1. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Terry McAuliffe the Democrat, Ken Cuccinelli the Republican, and Robert Sarvis the Libertarian, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward McAuliffe, Cuccinelli, or Sarvis? (Table includes leaners)
                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
McAuliffe            46%     5%    93%    40%    42%    50%    36%    84%
Cuccinelli           40     85      1     40     44     36     51      3
Sarvis                8      7      3     14      8      9      9      5
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      1      -      1      1      -      1      -
DK/NA                 5      2      3      6      5      6      4      9
 
TREND: If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Terry McAuliffe the Democrat, Ken Cuccinelli the Republican, and Robert Sarvis the Libertarian, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward McAuliffe, Cuccinelli, or Sarvis? (Table includes leaners)
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Nov 4  Oct 30  Oct 23  Oct 10  Sep 18
                     2013    2013    2013    2013    2013
 
McAuliffe            46      45      46      47      44
Cuccinelli           40      41      39      39      41
Sarvis                8       9      10       8       7
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -       1       1       -       1
DK/NA                 5       4       4       5       6
 
 
1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Will you definitely vote for (Candidate of choice), or is there a chance you could change your mind and vote for another of the candidates? IF CHANGE MIND: Would you say there's a good chance you'll change your mind, or would you say it's pretty unlikely?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...................................
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1.............................
                                   CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1............
                     Total         McAuliffe     Cuccinelli    Sarvis
 
Def vote for cand    89%           93%           90%           59%
Unlikely to change    5             4             4            12
Good chance change    5             2             3            24
DK/NA                 2             1             3             5
 
TREND: (If candidate chosen) Will you definitely vote for (Candidate of choice), or is there a chance you could change your mind and vote for another of the candidates? IF CHANGE MIND: Would you say there's a good chance you'll change your mind, or would you say it's pretty unlikely?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN......................
                     Nov 4  Oct 30  Oct 23  Oct 10  Sep 18
                     2013    2013    2013    2013    2013
 
Def vote for cand    89      85      82      79      77
Unlikely to change    5       7       9       9       8
Good chance change    5       7       7      11      12
DK/NA                 2       2       1       1       2
 
 
1b. (If candidate chosen q1) Would you describe your support for (Candidate of choice) as strongly favoring him, or do you like him but with reservations, or do you support him because you dislike the other candidates?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...................................
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1.............................
                                   CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1............
                     Total         McAuliffe     Cuccinelli    Sarvis
 
Strongly favor       43%           39%           54%           14%
Like/Reservations    24            27            23             7
Dislike other cands  30            32            19            74
DK/NA                 4             3             4             4
 
TREND: (If candidate chosen) Would you describe your support for (Candidate of choice) as strongly favoring him, or do you like him but with reservations, or do you support him because you dislike the other candidates?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN..............
                     Nov 4  Oct 30  Oct 23  Oct 10
                     2013    2013    2013    2013
 
Strongly favor       43      43      39      40
Like/Reservations    24      23      28      27
Dislike other cands  30      32      30      31
DK/NA                 4       2       3       3
 
 
1c. (If voting for Sarvis q1) Who is your second choice? (* q1 Recalculated gubernatorial vote without Sarvis using second choice question)
                     LIKELY VOTERS WITHOUT SARVIS........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
McAuliffe            49%     6%    96%    44%    45%    53%    39%    86%
Cuccinelli           42     90      1     43     47     38     54      3
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      -      3      1      1      1      1
DK/NA                 7      3      3     10      7      8      6     10
 
TREND: (If voting for Sarvis) Who is your second choice? (* Recalculated gubernatorial vote without Sarvis using second choice question)
                     LIKELY VOTERS WITHOUT SARVIS..
                     Nov 4  Oct 30  Oct 23  Oct 10
                     2013    2013    2013    2013
 
McAuliffe            49      47      50      49
Cuccinelli           42      45      42      42
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       2       2       1
DK/NA                 7       7       7       7
 
 
2. Is your opinion of Terry McAuliffe favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Favorable            42%     6%    83%    35%    38%    45%    33%    78%
Unfavorable          45     80      9     52     51     40     56      7
Hvn't hrd enough     10     12      7     12      9     12      9     11
REFUSED               3      2      2      2      2      3      2      5
TREND: Is your opinion of Terry McAuliffe favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................
                     Nov 4  Oct 30  Oct 23  Oct 10  Sep 18  Aug 21
                     2013    2013    2013    2013    2013    2013
 
Favorable            42      41      39      41      38      34
Unfavorable          45      46      43      40      38      33
Hvn't hrd enough     10      11      16      16      22      31
REFUSED               3       2       2       3       2       1
 
 
3. Is your opinion of Ken Cuccinelli favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Favorable            38%    79%     4%    37%    43%    33%    47%     7%
Unfavorable          52     13     88     53     49     54     46     76
Hvn't hrd enough      7      7      6      8      6      8      5     12
REFUSED               3      1      2      2      2      4      2      5
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Ken Cuccinelli favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................
                     Nov 4  Oct 30  Oct 23  Oct 10  Sep 18  Aug 21
                     2013    2013    2013    2013    2013    2013
 
Favorable            38      40      38      39      34      35
Unfavorable          52      52      52      49      51      41
Hvn't hrd enough      7       6       9      10      13      22
REFUSED               3       3       1       2       1       2
 
 
4. Is your opinion of Robert Sarvis favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Favorable            16%    13%    13%    21%    18%    14%    17%    10%
Unfavorable          11     11     13     10     10     12     13      7
Hvn't hrd enough     70     74     72     66     69     71     68     80
REFUSED               2      2      2      2      2      3      3      3
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Robert Sarvis favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Nov 4  Oct 30  Oct 23  Oct 10  Sep 18
                     2013    2013    2013    2013    2013
 
Favorable            16      12      13      10       8
Unfavorable          11      11       8       7       6
Hvn't hrd enough     70      75      78      80      85
REFUSED               2       2       1       2       1
 

Demographic Summary