March 27, 2014 - Virginia Blue For Warner, Clinton, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; But Obama Is In The Red, Especially On Foreign Policy
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Virginia, considered a swing state, is swinging blue for U.S. Sen. Mark Warner in his reelection drive this year and for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton if she runs for the White House in 2016, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Sen. Warner tops former White House aide Ed Gillespie, a possible Republican challenger, 46 - 31 percent, with 6 percent for Libertarian candidate Robert Sarvis, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds.

Virginia voters say 49 - 36 percent that Warner deserves reelection. They approve 55 - 33 percent of the job he is doing and have a 49 - 30 percent favorable opinion of him. For the other candidates, 64 percent don't know enough about Gillespie to form an opinion and 80 percent don't know enough about Sarvis.

Secretary Clinton squeaks by New Jersey Gov. Christopher Christie 45 - 41 percent and tops other possible Republican contenders in the 2016 presidential race:
  • 47 - 39 percent over former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush;
  • 48 - 42 percent over U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky;
  • 49 - 41 over former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee.
"U.S. Sen. Mark Warner passes for the closest thing to a household name in Virginia politics. He has a strong job approval rating and is flirting with the magic 50 percent threshold that generally marks an incumbent as a heavy favorite for re-election," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

"Ed Gillespie is no stranger to politics - but not in the Old Dominion. His extensive background in national politics will help him raise money but he's going to need a lot of it to introduce himself to Virginia voters."

"Interestingly, Virginian voters say 33 - 15 percent they would be less likely rather than more likely to vote for Warner if President Barack Obama campaigns for him," Brown added.

"Secretary Hillary Clinton's lead over New Jersey Gov. Christopher Christie, top-seeded among Republicans, is only four points, smaller than in other recent Quinnipiac University surveys. Whether that means the 'bridgegate' impact on Gov. Christie is fading in the rear-view mirror, only time will tell."

Virginia voters give Clinton a 52 - 44 percent favorability rating, compared to 39 - 35 percent for Huckabee and split decisions for the other Republicans:
  • 38 - 38 percent for Christie;
  • 35 - 36 percent for Bush;
  • 36 - 35 percent for Paul. President Obama's Approval
Virginia voters disapprove 52 - 44 percent of the job President Barack Obama is doing, with a 55 - 41 percent disapproval of the way he is handling the economy and a similar 55 - 40 percent disapproval for his handling of foreign policy.

Voters oppose the 2010 Affordable Care Act 52 - 44 percent and say 45 - 31 percent that they are less likely rather than more likely to vote for a U.S. Senate candidate who supports the health care law. Voters say 42 - 25 percent they are more likely to vote for a candidate who supports a minimum wage hike and say 40 - 27 they are less likely to vote for a Senate candidate who supports a path to citizenship for illegal aliens.

"President Obama's support in Virginia, which he narrowly carried in his re-election, remains stuck in negative territory, with his 58 - 36 percent disapproval among independent voters the big reason why," Brown said.

"The president gets the same negative ratings for his handling of the economy and foreign policy. His economy numbers have been in the dumpster for some time, but nationally his foreign policy numbers have remained good. It would be reasonable to assume that the current crisis involving Russia and the Ukraine may well be responsible for the low foreign policy grade."

From March 19 - 24, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,288 voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa and the nation as a public service and for research.

For more information, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

1. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Mark Warner the Democrat, Ed Gillespie the Republican, and Robert Sarvis the Libertarian, for whom would you vote?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Warner               46%    11%    84%    39%    41%    50%    33%    50%    48%    47%
Gillespie            31     73      1     30     37     27     27     31     32     34
Sarvis                6      2      3     11      8      6     11      8      6      3
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      1      1      2      2      2      5      2      2      1
DK/NA                15     13     10     18     12     17     24     11     13     15
 
 
2. Is your opinion of Mark Warner favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Favorable            49%    24%    76%    44%    44%    53%    31%    50%    51%    56%
Unfavorable          30     52      4     35     36     24     28     30     30     29
Hvn't hrd enough     19     21     18     17     18     19     38     17     15     12
REFUSED               3      3      2      4      2      4      3      3      5      3
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Mark Warner favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Mar 27  Nov 14
                     2014    2012
 
Favorable            49      58
Unfavorable          30      20
Hvn't hrd enough     19      20
REFUSED               3       2
 
 
3. Is your opinion of Ed Gillespie favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Favorable            20%    38%     3%    21%    25%    16%    12%    23%    21%    19%
Unfavorable          14      4     28     10     17     12     16     15     13     13
Hvn't hrd enough     64     57     66     67     57     70     68     59     65     67
REFUSED               2      -      3      2      2      2      3      2      1      2
 
 
4. Is your opinion of Robert Sarvis favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Favorable             8%     5%     6%    11%    11%     5%    10%    10%     7%     5%
Unfavorable          11     10      9     11     12     10     12     11     11      8
Hvn't hrd enough     80     84     84     76     76     83     76     77     81     85
REFUSED               1      1      1      2      1      2      2      1      1      2
 
 
5. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Chris Christie the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Clinton              45%     5%    90%    34%    42%    47%    54%    43%    46%    41%
Christie             41     84      4     48     43     40     35     41     40     48
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      2      1      2      4      1      2      4      2      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      5      4      2      7      5      5      5      6      6      3
DK/NA                 6      5      4      9      6      6      4      6      6      7
 
TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Chris Christie the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Mar 27  Sep 19  Aug 22  Jul 17
                     2014    2013    2013    2013
 
Clinton              45      42      46      45
Christie             41      41      37      40
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2       3       4       3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      5       4       4       3
DK/NA                 6      10       8       9
 
 
6. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Jeb Bush the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Clinton              47%     5%    90%    41%    43%    51%    55%    46%    49%    43%
Bush                 39     86      3     42     43     36     33     39     39     46
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      -      2      2      3      2      2      4      2      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      4      1      5      4      5      6      4      4      3
DK/NA                 7      4      3     11      7      6      4      8      5      7
 
 
7. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Rand Paul the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Clinton              48%     6%    91%    41%    42%    52%    51%    48%    50%    44%
Paul                 42     86      3     45     47     37     38     41     41     47
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      -      2      2      2      2      2      3      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      4      1      4      3      3      5      3      3      3
DK/NA                 6      4      3      8      5      6      4      5      6      5
 
TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Rand Paul the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Mar 27  Sep 19  Jul 17
                     2014    2013    2013
 
Clinton              48      49      51
Paul                 42      40      37
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2       2       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3       2       2
DK/NA                 6       7       7
 
 
8. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Mike Huckabee the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Clinton              49%     4%    91%    44%    45%    52%    55%    49%    50%    43%
Huckabee             41     89      3     42     44     39     34     39     42     47
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      -      1      2      2      1      1      2      1      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      2      2      5      5      3      8      4      3      3
DK/NA                 5      4      3      7      5      5      2      7      4      5
 
 
9. Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Favorable            52%    11%    94%    47%    46%    57%    51%    52%    55%    49%
Unfavorable          44     84      5     49     50     39     44     45     42     47
Hvn't hrd enough      3      4      1      2      3      2      4      1      2      3
REFUSED               1      1      -      1      1      1      -      1      1      2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     Mar 27  Sep 19  Aug 22  Jul 17
                     2014    2013    2013    2013
 
Favorable            52      53      57      58
Unfavorable          44      42      38      37
Hvn't hrd enough      3       4       3       4
REFUSED               1       1       1       1
 
 
10. Is your opinion of Chris Christie favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Favorable            38%    57%    22%    42%    39%    37%    26%    41%    37%    44%
Unfavorable          38     22     52     34     40     36     35     40     40     32
Hvn't hrd enough     22     19     24     21     19     25     38     17     20     22
REFUSED               2      2      2      3      2      2      1      1      3      2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Chris Christie favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Mar 27  Sep 19  Aug 22  Jul 17
                     2014    2013    2013    2013
 
Favorable            38      55      56      55
Unfavorable          38      19      18      17
Hvn't hrd enough     22      24      24      26
REFUSED               2       2       2       2
 
 
11. Is your opinion of Jeb Bush favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Favorable            35%    66%    14%    36%    39%    32%    21%    33%    37%    45%
Unfavorable          36      9     63     28     33     38     30     44     37     27
Hvn't hrd enough     28     24     22     33     26     29     48     22     25     26
REFUSED               2      1      1      2      2      1      1      1      2      2
 
 
12. Is your opinion of Rand Paul favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Favorable            36%    68%     6%    41%    44%    29%    27%    37%    37%    37%
Unfavorable          35      6     62     30     32     37     25     38     37     34
Hvn't hrd enough     28     25     30     28     23     33     47     24     26     27
REFUSED               1      1      2      1      1      1      1      1      1      1
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Rand Paul favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Mar 27  Sep 19  Jul 17
                     2014    2013    2013
 
Favorable            36      38      36
Unfavorable          35      33      32
Hvn't hrd enough     28      27      31
REFUSED               1       1       1
 
 
13. Is your opinion of Mike Huckabee favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Favorable            39%    77%     9%    41%    42%    37%    26%    39%    41%    47%
Unfavorable          35      7     59     34     37     34     34     40     33     33
Hvn't hrd enough     25     16     32     24     20     29     41     21     25     20
REFUSED               -      -      -      1      -      -      -      -      1      -
 
 
16. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mark Warner is handling his job as United States Senator?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Approve              55%    33%    80%    52%    48%    61%    42%    57%    57%    60%
Disapprove           33     55      7     37     41     26     39     31     32     31
DK/NA                12     12     13     11     11     14     19     12     11     10
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mark Warner is handling his job as United States Senator? (*High also 64% Sep 2011)
                                                             APPROVE.......
                                                             High    Low
                     Mar 27  Sep 19  Aug 22  Jul 17  May 15  Feb 09  Mar 27  
                     2014    2013    2013    2013    2013    2012*   2014    
                                                                             
Approve              55      61      61      61      59      64      55      
Disapprove           33      22      25      23      22      22      33      
DK/NA                12      16      14      16      18      14      12      
 
 
17. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Tim Kaine is handling his job as United States Senator?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Approve              48%    26%    72%    46%    45%    50%    48%    49%    47%    48%
Disapprove           37     58     12     40     41     33     34     36     39     37
DK/NA                15     16     15     14     14     17     18     15     14     16
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Tim Kaine is handling his job as United States Senator?
                                                             APPROVE.......
                                                             High    Low
                     Mar 27  Sep 19  Aug 22  Jul 17  May 15  Aug 22  May 15
                     2014    2013    2013    2013    2013    2013    2013
 
Approve              48      53      55      51      46      55      46
Disapprove           37      34      32      30      33      32      33
DK/NA                15      13      14      19      21      14      21
 
 
18. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Approve              44%     4%    87%    36%    42%    45%    51%    43%    45%    39%
Disapprove           52     94     11     58     56     49     45     53     51     57
DK/NA                 4      3      3      6      3      5      4      4      3      4
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? (*High also 52% Nov 2012)
                                                             APPROVE.......
                                                             High    Low
                     Mar 27  Sep 19  Aug 22  Jul 17  May 15  Jan 10  Sep 15
                     2014    2013    2013    2013    2013    2013*   2011
 
Approve              44      44      48      46      49      52      40
Disapprove           52      52      48      51      47      44      54
DK/NA                 4       4       4       4       4       3       6
 
 
19. Do you feel that Mark Warner deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Yes/Deserves         49%    27%    77%    44%    45%    53%    40%    48%    53%    53%
No/Does not          36     62     10     39     43     30     39     36     37     34
DK/NA                15     11     13     17     12     17     21     16     10     13
 
 
42. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in the nation today; are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Very satisfied        2%     -      5%     1%     2%     3%     6%     2%     2%     2%
Smwht satisfied      27      6     49     24     28     27     28     32     27     20
Smwht dissatisfied   31     29     31     33     30     31     43     28     29     29
Very dissatisfied    39     66     14     41     40     38     24     37     42     48
DK/NA                 1      -      1      -      1      1      -      -      1      1
 
TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in the nation today; are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
                     Mar 27  Oct 12
                     2014    2011
 
Very satisfied        2       2
Smwht satisfied      27      17
Smwht dissatisfied   31      33
Very dissatisfied    39      49
DK/NA                 1       1
 
 
43. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling - the economy?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Approve              41%     4%    80%    34%    40%    41%    45%    39%    44%    36%
Disapprove           55     95     14     62     56     54     50     57     53     58
DK/NA                 4      2      6      5      4      5      5      4      3      6
 
 
44. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling - foreign policy?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Approve              40%     6%    77%    33%    41%    39%    43%    43%    41%    33%
Disapprove           55     90     18     64     57     53     51     53     55     61
DK/NA                 5      4      5      3      2      7      6      4      3      6
 
 
45. Would you describe the state of the nation's economy these days as excellent, good, not so good, or poor?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Excellent             1%     -      1%     1%     1%     -      1%     1%     -      1%
Good                 26      7     45     25     28     25     21     30     29     21
Not so good          43     46     46     40     39     45     52     42     39     44
Poor                 29     46      7     33     31     28     25     26     31     33
DK/NA                 1      1      -      1      -      2      2      1      -      1
 
 
46. Do you think the nation's economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Better               31%     6%    51%    31%    34%    29%    34%    36%    29%    24%
Worse                30     46     13     30     27     32     27     30     28     32
The same             38     47     35     38     39     38     37     34     43     43
DK/NA                 1      -      1      1      -      2      2      1      1      1
 
 
47. Do you support or oppose the health care law passed by Barack Obama and Congress in 2010?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Support              44%     5%    83%    38%    44%    43%    45%    45%    46%    39%
Oppose               52     92     12     59     53     51     51     52     51     54
DK/NA                 4      3      5      3      3      6      4      3      3      7
 
 
48. If a candidate for United States Senator supports - raising the national minimum wage, would you be more likely to vote for a candidate who held this position, less likely, or wouldn't it make a difference?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
More likely          42%    15%    73%    32%    39%    44%    41%    41%    42%    43%
Less likely          25     45      2     29     32     19     25     25     25     25
No difference        32     38     25     36     29     35     34     33     31     29
DK/NA                 2      3      -      2      1      2      -      1      1      3
 
 
49. If a candidate for United States Senator supports - the 2010 health care law passed by President Obama and Congress, would you be more likely to vote for a candidate who held this position, less likely, or wouldn't it make a difference?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
More likely          31%     3%    64%    23%    30%    32%    26%    31%    33%    32%
Less likely          45     86      5     51     50     40     40     44     44     49
No difference        23      9     30     25     20     25     32     24     21     17
DK/NA                 1      2      1      1      -      2      2      1      1      2
 
 
50. If a candidate for United States Senator supports - a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants, would you be more likely to vote for a candidate who held this position, less likely, or wouldn't it make a difference?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
More likely          27%     8%    47%    23%    26%    28%    33%    26%    26%    27%
Less likely          40     65     19     41     42     39     38     40     39     44
No difference        28     21     31     32     29     28     28     30     31     23
DK/NA                 4      6      3      4      3      5      2      4      4      6
 
 
51. If President Obama campaigns for Mark Warner in his Senate race, would that make you more likely to vote for Warner, less likely to vote for Warner, or wouldn't it make a difference?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
More likely          15%     -     35%     9%    16%    15%    24%    15%    12%    14%
Less likely          33     68      3     35     37     30     32     32     31     39
No difference        50     31     61     55     46     54     43     53     55     46
DK/NA                 1      -      1      1      1      1      2      1      2      1
 
 

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