National (US) Poll * May 14, 2008 * Obama, Clinton Both Top McCain - Quinnipiac University

Home> Institutes and Centers> Quinnipiac University Polling Institute> National (US)> Release Detail

May 14, 2008 - Obama, Clinton Both Top McCain In November Face-Off, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; Most Democrats Back Obama-Clinton 'dream Ticket'

Word format Either one of the two Democratic contenders, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama or New York Sen. Hillary Clinton, leads the likely Republican presidential nominee, Arizona Sen. John McCain, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll released today. Sen. Obama leads Sen. McCain 47 - 40 percent while Sen. Clinton is up 46 - 41 percent.
In an Obama-McCain matchup, independent voters back the Democrat 48 - 37 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. Men split with 45 percent for McCain and 44 percent for Obama, while women back Obama 49 - 36 percent. McCain leads 47 - 40 percent among white voters, while blacks back Obama 87 - 4 percent.
In a Clinton-McCain contest, independent voters split with 41 - 41 percent. Men go with McCain 46 - 42 percent while women back Clinton 51 - 36 percent. White voters back McCain 48 - 41 percent, the same margin as the Obama-McCain matchup, while black voters back Clinton 79 - 8 percent.
Among Democrats, Obama is ahead slightly as 45 percent say they want to see him win the nomination while 41 percent want to see Clinton as the nominee. And Democrats say 63 - 34 percent that Clinton should stay in the presidential race.
By a 60 - 33 percent margin, Democrats say Obama should pick Clinton as his vice presidential running mate.
"Sen. Hillary Clinton's never-say-die campaign still has lots of fans. Just as in delegates, states, money, you-name-it, Obama leads her in national support - but only by a bit," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"Either Democrat leads Sen. John McCain, with heavy support from black voters. McCain has an edge among white voters."
"Party leaders may be cringing over the potential damage to Democratic chances in November from the endless primary campaign, but two-thirds of the rank-and-file think Clinton ought to keep battling," Carroll added.
"The 'dream ticket?' Three out of five Democrats like the idea."
The economy is the single most important issue in their vote for President, 48 percent of voters say, with 20 percent listing the war in Iraq and 11 percent listing health care. Americans are split in what quality they want most in a candidate, as 31 percent most want a strong leader and 29 percent want someone trustworthy.
Bush Approval
American voters disapprove 67 - 28 percent of the job President George W. Bush is doing, his lowest approval ever in a Quinnipiac University national poll. Voters disapprove 67 - 29 percent of the way President Bush is handling the war in Iraq and disapprove 75 - 20 percent of the way he is handling the economy.
The war in Iraq was the wrong thing to do, voters say 62 - 33 percent. The U.S. should set a timetable for troop withdrawal, 48 percent say, while 28 percent say U.S. troops should stay as long as needed and 22 percent say withdraw all U.S. troops as soon as possible.
"The overall numbers blur a big partisan split over Iraq. By a large margin, Republicans think the war was the right thing to do. By an even larger margin, Democrats think it was wrong," Carroll said. "What should the next President do about Iraq? Get out or set a withdrawal timetable, Democrats say. Stay the course, say a majority of Republicans."
From May 8 -12, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,745 registered voters nationwide, with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research. For more data -- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.
1a. (Democrats only) Who would you like to see win the Democratic nomination for President this year - Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama?
DEMOCRATS ......... Tot Men Wom Clinton 41% 38% 43% Obama 45 49 43 DK/NA 14 14 14
1b. (Democrats supporting Clinton q1a) Is your support more for Clinton or more against Obama?
DEM/CLINTON SUP Q1a Tot Men Wom For Clinton 86% 86% 86% Against Obama 12 9 13 DK/NA 3 5 1
1c. (Democrats supporting Obama q1a) Is your support more for Obama or more against Clinton?
DEM/OBAMA SUP Q1a . Tot Men Wom For Obama 90% 86% 93% Against Clinton 7 11 4 DK/NA 3 3 3
1. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Clinton 46% 5% 80% 41% 42% 51% 41% 79% McCain 41 87 11 41 46 36 48 8 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 3 3 1 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 2 4 5 4 4 3 4 DK/NA 7 4 5 9 6 8 6 6 Red Blue Purple Clinton 44% 47% 49% McCain 46 38 38 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 5 5 DK/NA 6 8 7 WHITE....................................... Working Age Age Class College BrnAgn 18-44 45+ (NoCol) Degree Men Wom Evngl Cath Clinton 46% 47% 41% 41% 36% 45% 33% 41% McCain 43 40 48 48 53 43 57 49 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 2 1 2 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 3 4 3 2 4 4 2 DK/NA 5 7 6 7 5 7 5 7 DEMS Q1a..... Clin Obama IMP ISSUE TO VOTE..... /IMP QUALITY IN CANDIDATE. Supp Supp War Econ HlthCr Trust Leader Competent Clinton 94% 69% 60% 48% 64% 39% 52% 51% McCain 3 15 25 39 24 42 39 40 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 2 2 2 2 4 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 7 6 3 6 6 3 2 DK/NA 2 8 6 8 4 9 5 5
TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
May 14 Oct 31 Aug 15 Jun 13 May 3 Feb 21 Dec 6 2008 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2005 Clinton 46 44 47 44 41 44 40 McCain 41 44 41 42 46 46 44 SMONE ELSE 2 2 3 3 2 1 3 WLDN'T VOTE 4 3 3 4 3 3 3 DK/NA 7 6 6 7 8 6 11
2. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Obama 47% 7% 75% 48% 44% 49% 40% 87% McCain 40 84 13 37 45 36 47 4 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 2 2 1 2 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 2 5 1 3 5 3 3 DK/NA 8 5 6 11 6 9 8 5 Red Blue Purple Obama 41% 52% 48% McCain 46 33 39 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 3 3 DK/NA 7 10 7 WHITE....................................... Working Age Age Class College BrnAgn 18-44 45+ (NoCol) Degree Men Wom Evngl Cath Obama 52% 45% 39% 43% 38% 42% 27% 37% McCain 37 41 46 47 52 42 60 46 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 3 1 2 2 1 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 4 4 1 2 5 6 3 DK/NA 6 8 8 8 6 10 6 10 DEMS Q1a..... Clin Obama IMP ISSUE TO VOTE..... /IMP QUALITY IN CANDIDATE. Supp Supp War Econ HlthCr Trust Leader Competent Obama 57% 96% 66% 48% 60% 44% 49% 53% McCain 24 2 24 37 28 39 39 37 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 2 2 3 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 9 - 3 4 2 5 3 2 DK/NA 9 2 6 10 8 9 8 8
TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
May 14 Oct 31 Aug 15 Jun 13 May 3 Feb 21 2008 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 Obama 47 43 43 43 42 43 McCain 40 43 39 41 42 43 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 3 3 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 3 4 4 2 4 DK/NA 8 8 11 10 12 10
3. Is your opinion of -- Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 47% 17% 70% 44% 43% 51% 45% 60% Unfavorable 44 77 22 45 48 40 47 25 Hvn't hrd enough 7 4 6 8 7 6 5 14 REFUSED 2 1 2 3 2 3 2 2 Red Blue Purple Favorable 46% 46% 50% Unfavorable 45 46 40 Hvn't hrd enough 6 6 7 REFUSED 3 2 2
TREND: Is your opinion of -- Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
May 14 Oct 31 Aug 15 Jun 13 May 3 Feb 21 2008 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 Favorable 47 46 48 47 44 46 Unfavorable 44 46 43 45 46 45 Hvn't hrd enough 7 6 6 6 7 7 REFUSED 2 2 3 2 3 2
4. Is your opinion of -- Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 49% 23% 63% 57% 47% 51% 45% 81% Unfavorable 33 60 20 25 36 31 38 7 Hvn't hrd enough 15 15 13 15 15 14 15 9 REFUSED 3 2 3 3 2 3 2 3 Red Blue Purple Favorable 46% 54% 47% Unfavorable 37 26 37 Hvn't hrd enough 13 17 14 REFUSED 4 2 2
TREND: Is your opinion of -- Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
May 14 Oct 31 Aug 15 Jun 13 May 3 Feb 21 2008 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 Favorable 49 50 48 48 46 44 Unfavorable 33 26 22 21 18 14 Hvn't hrd enough 15 21 28 29 34 40 REFUSED 3 2 3 2 2 1
5. Is your opinion of -- John McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 45% 78% 22% 47% 50% 40% 52% 9% Unfavorable 31 8 50 27 29 33 29 47 Hvn't hrd enough 22 12 25 24 19 24 17 42 REFUSED 3 2 3 2 2 3 3 2 Red Blue Purple Favorable 46% 45% 43% Unfavorable 29 31 33 Hvn't hrd enough 21 22 22 REFUSED 3 2 2
TREND: Is your opinion of -- John McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
May 14 Oct 31 Aug 15 Jun 13 May 3 Feb 21 2008 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 Favorable 45 49 42 45 49 51 Unfavorable 31 25 28 28 26 22 Hvn't hrd enough 22 24 27 24 21 25 REFUSED 3 2 3 2 4 2
6. Which of the following will be the single most important issue in your vote in the election for President this year? (Read options)
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Terrorism 6% 16% 2% 4% 7% 5% 7% - The war in Iraq 20 12 25 21 17 22 19 21 The economy 48 43 51 49 51 46 48 51 Illegal immigration 9 17 4 8 12 6 9 3 Health care 11 6 14 11 8 14 10 19 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 4 3 3 4 3 4 4 2 DK/NA 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 Red Blue Purple Terrorism 7% 6% 4% The war in Iraq 18 22 19 The economy 48 48 49 Illegal immigration 10 9 8 Health care 10 10 13 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 2 4 5 DK/NA 4 1 1
7. When you decide how to vote for president, which of the following is the single most important quality you look for in a candidate? (Read options)
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Trustworthy 29% 29% 23% 33% 27% 31% 28% 33% Shares your values 16 22 13 13 16 16 17 12 A strong leader 31 29 36 29 30 32 29 40 Competent 20 18 22 21 22 18 21 10 Inspiring 3 2 3 4 4 2 3 2 DK/NA 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 3 Red Blue Purple Trustworthy 30% 25% 31% Shares your values 17 15 17 A strong leader 30 29 33 Competent 18 25 16 Inspiring 2 4 2 DK/NA 1 2 0
10. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 28% 63% 7% 23% 30% 25% 32% 6% Disapprove 67 29 91 70 65 69 63 93 DK/NA 5 8 2 7 5 5 6 1 Red Blue Purple Approve 31% 24% 27% Disapprove 63 72 68 DK/NA 6 4 6
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President? * also 28% on 6/13/2007
Highest Lowest Approve Approve May 14 Oct 31 Aug 15 Jun 13 May 3 Dec 11 May 14 2008 2007 2007 2007 2007 2001 2008 * Approve 28 35 29 28 35 83 28 Disapprove 67 59 64 65 60 11 67 DK/NA 5 7 7 7 6 6 5
11. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Congress is handling its job?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 16% 16% 18% 14% 16% 16% 16% 15% Disapprove 76 77 74 78 81 72 76 78 DK/NA 8 7 8 8 3 12 7 7 Red Blue Purple Approve 17% 15% 16% Disapprove 76 75 77 DK/NA 7 10 6
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Congress is handling its job?
Highest Lowest Approve Approve May 14 Oct 31 Aug 16 Jun 13 May 3 Mar 6 May 14 2008 2007 2007 2007 2007 2003 2008 Approve 16 21 20 23 39 42 16 Disapprove 76 70 70 66 52 46 76 DK/NA 8 10 10 11 9 12 8
13. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the situation with Iraq?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 29% 66% 7% 25% 34% 24% 34% 3% Disapprove 67 30 91 71 62 72 62 94 DK/NA 4 4 2 5 3 4 4 3 Red Blue Purple Approve 35% 24% 27% Disapprove 61 73 70 DK/NA 5 3 3
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the situation with Iraq?
Highest Lowest Approve Approve May 14 Oct 31 Aug 16 Jun 13 May 3 Jul 24 Jun 13 2008 2007 2007 2007 2007 2003 2007 Approve 29 31 29 25 31 52 25 Disapprove 67 65 67 70 64 43 70 DK/NA 4 4 4 6 5 5 6
14. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the economy?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 20% 48% 5% 15% 23% 18% 23% 5% Disapprove 75 44 93 80 74 77 72 93 DK/NA 4 8 1 5 4 5 5 2 Red Blue Purple Approve 23% 21% 16% Disapprove 71 75 81 DK/NA 7 3 3
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the economy?
May 14 Dec 16 May 26 May 5 Dec 10 Oct 29 Sep 17 2008 2004 2004 2004 2003 2003 2003 Approve 20 42 42 41 46 39 44 Disapprove 75 53 52 52 50 55 50 DK/NA 4 5 6 7 4 6 6
23. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Right thing 33% 69% 13% 27% 38% 29% 37% 8% Wrong thing 62 26 84 67 57 66 58 86 DK/NA 5 6 3 6 5 5 5 7 Red Blue Purple Right thing 40% 27% 31% Wrong thing 54 68 64 DK/NA 5 5 5
TREND: Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?
Highest Lowest Right Right May 14 Oct 31 Aug 16 Jun 13 May 3 Sep 17 May 14 2008 2007 2007 2007 2007 2003 2008 Right 33 38 35 37 39 58 33 Wrong 62 55 59 57 55 37 62 DK/NA 5 6 6 7 6 5 5
24. What should the United States do in Iraq? Withdraw all troops as soon as possible, OR Set a timetable to withdraw troops gradually OR Keep troops in Iraq as long as needed?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Withdraw all troops 22% 9% 31% 21% 19% 23% 17% 42% Set a timetable 48 33 57 48 40 55 48 50 Keep troops as needed 28 57 9 27 37 19 32 6 DK/NA 3 1 3 4 4 2 3 2 Red Blue Purple Withdraw all troops 22% 22% 20% Set a timetable 42 52 50 Keep troops as needed 32 24 26 DK/NA 4 3 3
25. If Hillary Clinton is elected President, do you think the situation in Iraq will get better, better, get worse or stay about the same?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Get better 38% 9% 61% 37% 34% 42% 34% 51% Get worse 27 58 7 25 32 23 31 9 Stay the same 29 27 28 32 30 27 29 37 DK/NA 6 6 4 6 4 8 6 3 Red Blue Purple Get better 34% 41% 41% Get worse 30 26 25 Stay the same 30 28 27 DK/NA 6 5 7
26. If Barack Obama is elected President, do you think the situation in Iraq will get better, get worse or stay about the same?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Get better 39% 11% 59% 40% 37% 40% 34% 62% Get worse 27 58 8 25 33 22 31 6 Stay the same 27 25 26 29 27 27 28 28 DK/NA 7 6 7 6 4 10 7 5 Red Blue Purple Get better 33% 42% 41% Get worse 32 23 27 Stay the same 27 28 26 DK/NA 8 7 6
27. If John McCain is elected President, do you think the situation in Iraq will get better, get worse or stay about the same?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Get better 22% 42% 8% 24% 26% 19% 26% 5% Get worse 21 3 35 18 19 23 19 38 Stay the same 52 50 54 53 54 50 52 50 DK/NA 5 4 2 5 2 7 4 7 Red Blue Purple Get better 25% 18% 23% Get worse 19 23 22 Stay the same 51 55 51 DK/NA 5 4 4
34. Do you think Hillary Clinton should stay in the Presidential race, or do you think she should drop out?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Stay in 56% 50% 63% 53% 52% 59% 56% 57% Drop out 37 41 34 39 41 33 36 40 DK/NA 7 9 3 8 6 8 8 4 Red Blue Purple Stay in 55% 53% 59% Drop out 36 41 33 DK/NA 9 5 7 WHITES...................................... Working Age Age Class College BrnAgn 18-44 45+ (NoCol) Degree Men Wom Evngl Cath Stay in 55% 57% 57% 53% 54% 59% 56% 63% Drop out 42 35 34 41 40 33 36 32 DK/NA 4 8 8 5 7 9 8 5 DEMS Q.1a.... Clin Obama IMP ISSUE TO VOTE..... /IMP QUALITY IN CANDIDATE. Supp Supp War Econ HlthCr Trust Leader Competent Stay in 95% 31% 52% 55% 62% 45% 64% 57% Drop out 5 65 44 38 31 45 31 37 DK/NA 1 4 5 7 7 10 4 6
35. If Barack Obama wins the Democratic Presidential nomination, would you like him to pick Hillary Clinton to be his Vice-Presidential running mate?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Yes 45% 25% 60% 43% 39% 50% 40% 62% No 47 66 33 47 54 40 50 35 DK/NA 9 9 7 9 7 10 10 3 Red Blue Purple Yes 41% 45% 48% No 49 48 43 DK/NA 11 6 9 WHITES...................................... Working Age Age Class College BrnAgn 18-44 45+ (NoCol) Degree Men Wom Evngl Cath Yes 47% 44% 44% 33% 36% 45% 39% 38% No 47 47 48 56 57 43 52 55 DK/NA 6 9 9 11 7 12 10 7 DEMS Q.1a.... Clin Obama IMP ISSUE TO VOTE..... /IMP QUALITY IN CANDIDATE. Supp Supp War Econ HlthCr Trust Leader Competent Yes No 71% 47% 50% 44% 61% 41% 51% 45% DK/NA 23 47 44 47 32 50 42 46 6 6 6 9 7 9 8 9