National (US) Poll * August 19, 2008 * McCain, Seen 2-1 As Better Aga - Quinnipiac University

Home> Institutes and Centers> Quinnipiac University Polling Institute> National (US)> Release Detail

August 19, 2008 - McCain, Seen 2-1 As Better Against Russia, Gains On Obama, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; Men And White Voters Go Republican

Word format American likely voters say 55 - 27 percent that Arizona Sen. John McCain is better qualified than Illinois Sen. Barack Obama to deal with Russia and now trails the Democrat 47 - 42 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll released today.
This compares to a 50 - 41 percent Sen. Obama lead in a July 15 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.
In this latest survey, Democrats say 48 - 31 percent that Obama is better qualified to deal with Russia, while Sen. McCain is seen as better by Republicans 86 - 5 percent and independent voters 55 - 24 percent.
In the presidential matchup, McCain leads 46 - 41 percent among men, up from 47 - 44 percent July 15, and 48 - 40 percent among white voters, compared to 49 - 42 percent last month. He also leads 65 - 25 percent among white Evangelical Christians, up from 61 - 29 percent.
But Obama leads 53 - 39 percent among women, compared to 55 - 36 percent last month, and 94 - 4 percent among black voters. The Democrat leads 55 - 36 percent among voters 18 to 34 years old, compared to 63 - 31 percent last month. Obama's strength among voters 35 to 54 is up from 48 - 44 percent to 49 - 41 percent. McCain leads 47 - 40 percent among voters over 55, compared to a 45 - 44 percent split July 15.
Independent voters shift from a 44 - 44 percent split to a 45 - 39 percent Democratic tilt.
"The poll underlines Sen. Barack Obama's strengths and weaknesses. Strengths: He leads overall and he's strong with women, even stronger among young folks and astronomically strong with blacks. Weaknesses: Sen. John McCain beats him among white voters, men, older folks and white Catholics," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"Next week's Democratic Convention, a week-long political campaign commercial, should help Obama - at least until the Republican Convention, a week-long celebration of McCain the following week," Carroll added.
"In dealing with Russia, even a large minority of Democrats think McCain would do better than Obama," Carroll added. "We'll have to see how important this issue becomes in the Fall campaign."
Only 20 percent of Obama supporters and 17 percent of McCain backers say they might change their mind before Election Day.
By a 52 - 30 percent margin, likely voters nationwide have a favorable opinion of Obama. McCain gets a 50 - 32 percent favorability.
A total of 89 percent of American voters say they are "entirely comfortable" or "somewhat comfortable" having a black President, while 8 percent are "somewhat uncomfortable" or "entirely uncomfortable."
A total of 64 percent of voters say they are "entirely comfortable" or "somewhat comfortable" with a President who is 72 years old, while 34 percent are "somewhat uncomfortable" or "entirely uncomfortable."
"More Americans are willing to admit prejudice against an older candidate than against a black candidate," Carroll said.
The economy is the single most important issue in their vote, 52 percent of American voters say, followed by 16 percent who list the war in Iraq, 10 percent who list health care and 9 percent who cite terrorism.
Obama leads McCain 49 - 41 percent among those who list the economy, 61 - 30 percent among those who cite the war and 66 - 24 percent among those worried about health care. McCain leads 76 - 19 percent among those who worry most about terrorism.
From August 12 -17, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,547 likely voters nationwide, with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research. For more data -- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.
1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners".
LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Obama 47% 12% 79% 45% 41% 53% 40% 94% McCain 42 83 13 39 46 39 48 4 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 1 4 3 1 2 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - DK/NA 9 5 7 12 10 7 9 3 IMP ISSUE Q8..................... Illeg War Econ Terr HlthCr Immig Red Blue Purple Obama 61% 49% 19% 66% 23% 42% 53% 47% McCain 30 41 76 24 64 48 37 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 4 1 - 2 4 2 1 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - DK/NA 6 8 4 8 9 9 8 9 WHITE.................................. AGE IN YRS....... NoColl College BrnAgn 18-34 35-54 55+ Degree Degree Men Wom Evngl Cath Obama 55% 49% 40% 38% 46% 35% 45% 25% 40% McCain 36 41 47 49 46 51 46 65 48 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 2 2 3 1 3 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - - DK/NA 7 8 11 10 8 11 8 7 11 PresVt2004.. DemPrim2008. BushJobAppQ9 Bush Kerry Clintn Obama App Dis Obama 14% 81% 63% 95% 10% 67% McCain 76 11 23 3 82 22 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 - 1 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - DK/NA 9 7 13 2 7 9
TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners".
LIKELY VOTERS. Aug 19 Jul 15 2008 2008 Obama 47 50 McCain 42 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - DK/NA 9 7
1a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
LIKELY VOTERS......... CANDIDATE CHOICE GIVEN CAND CHOICE Q1 Tot Obama McCain Made up 80% 78% 81% Might change 19 20 17 DK/NA 2 2 2
1b.(If support Obama q1) Is your vote more for Obama or more against McCain? (* Too few members of this subgroup to report)
LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep* Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk For Obama 69% 73% 62% 69% 70% 65% 80% Against McCain 23 21 25 22 23 27 13 DK/NA 8 6 13 10 7 8 8
1c.(If support McCain q1) Is your vote more for McCain or more against Obama? (* Too few members of this subgroup to report)
LIKELY VOTERS................................ Tot Rep Dem* Ind Men Wom Wht For McCain 60% 61% 64% 60% 60% 60% Against Obama 33 31 30 34 32 33 DK/NA 7 8 7 6 8 7
2. Is your opinion of -- Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 52% 26% 77% 48% 48% 55% 46% 88% Unfavorable 30 57 10 28 36 26 35 3 Hvn't hrd enough 15 14 12 20 15 15 16 7 REFUSED 3 3 1 3 1 4 2 3
TREND: Is your opinion of -- Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS. Aug 19 Jul 15 2008 2008 Favorable 52 55 Unfavorable 30 29 Hvn't hrd enough 15 13 REFUSED 3 3
3. Is your opinion of -- John McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 50% 79% 28% 52% 56% 46% 55% 22% Unfavorable 32 9 52 30 30 34 29 49 Hvn't hrd enough 13 9 16 13 11 15 12 21 REFUSED 5 3 5 5 4 5 4 8
TREND: Is your opinion of -- John McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS. Aug 19 Jul 15 2008 2008 Favorable 50 50 Unfavorable 32 31 Hvn't hrd enough 13 15 REFUSED 5 4
5. Putting aside for a moment the question of who each party's nominee might be, what is your preference for the outcome of the 2008 presidential election - that a Democrat be elected president or that a Republican be elected president?
LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Democrat 46% 7% 86% 38% 41% 50% 40% 82% Republican 34 80 5 27 38 31 38 8 DK/NA 20 14 10 35 21 19 22 10
6. If you honestly assessed yourself, thinking in general about - An African- American president of the United States, is that something you'd be entirely comfortable with, somewhat comfortable, somewhat uncomfortable or entirely uncomfortable with?
LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Entirely Cmfrtable 72% 63% 74% 77% 71% 73% 71% 88% Smwht Cmfrtable 17 23 16 12 16 18 17 8 Smwht Uncmfrtable 5 8 3 4 5 4 5 1 Entirely Uncmfrtable 3 4 2 2 3 2 3 - DK/NA 4 2 5 5 6 3 4 3
TREND: If you honestly assessed yourself, thinking in general about an African- American president of the United States, is that something you'd be entirely comfortable with, somewhat comfortable, somewhat uncomfortable or entirely uncomfortable with?
LIKELY VOTERS. Aug 19 Jul 15 2008 2008 Entirely Cmfrtable 72 71 Smwht Cmfrtable 17 17 Smwht Uncmfrtable 5 6 Entirely Uncmfrtable 3 3 DK/NA 4 4
7. If you honestly assessed yourself, thinking in general about - Someone entering office as president of the United States at age 72, is that something you'd be entirely comfortable with, somewhat comfortable, somewhat uncomfortable or entirely uncomfortable with?
LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Entirely Cmfrtable 37% 56% 21% 38% 42% 33% 39% 17% Smwht Cmfrtable 27 31 22 27 27 26 29 17 Smwht Uncmfrtable 24 9 38 23 19 28 23 32 Entirely Uncmfrtable 10 2 17 9 8 11 7 30 DK/NA 2 2 2 3 3 2 2 4
TREND: If you honestly assessed yourself, thinking in general about someone entering office as president of the United States at age 72, is that something you'd be entirely comfortable with, somewhat comfortable, somewhat uncomfortable or entirely uncomfortable with?
LIKELY VOTERS. Aug 19 Jul 15 2008 2008 Entirely Cmfrtable 37 37 Smwht Cmfrtable 27 27 Smwht Uncmfrtable 24 23 Entirely Uncmfrtable 10 11 DK/NA 2 2
8. Which of the following will be the single most important issue in your vote in the election for President this year? (READ OPTIONS)
LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Terrorism 9% 17% 3% 9% 9% 9% 9% 8% The war in Iraq 16 11 22 15 15 17 16 12 The economy 52 50 55 52 55 50 52 57 Illegal immigration 6 8 2 8 7 5 7 - Health care 10 8 12 7 7 12 9 16 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 3 4 3 4 4 3 3 2 DK/NA 4 2 3 5 4 4 3 4
TREND: Which of the following will be the single most important issue in your vote in the election for President this year? (READ OPTIONS)
LIKELY VOTERS. Aug 19 Jul 15 2008 2008 Terrorism 9 7 The war in Iraq 16 16 The economy 52 53 Illegal immigration 6 6 Health care 10 11 SOMETHING ELSE (VOL) 3 3 DK/NA 4 4
9. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 30% 58% 10% 27% 31% 29% 33% 8% Disapprove 64 33 89 66 64 64 61 87 DK/NA 5 9 2 6 5 6 5 5
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
LIKELY VOTERS. Aug 19 Jul 15 2008 2008 Approve 30 26 Disapprove 64 67 DK/NA 5 6
10. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Congress is handling its job?
LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 16% 16% 18% 14% 15% 16% 15% 19% Disapprove 74 76 71 75 80 69 75 68 DK/NA 10 8 11 11 5 15 10 13
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Congress is handling its job?
LIKELY VOTERS. Aug 19 Jul 15 2008 2008 Approve 16 14 Disapprove 74 77 DK/NA 10 9
28. Regardless of whom you support, which candidate for President - Barack Obama or John McCain - is better qualified to deal with Russia?
LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Obama 27% 5% 48% 24% 26% 28% 21% 72% McCain 55 86 31 55 61 51 61 13 DK/NA 18 9 20 21 13 21 18 15