National (US) Poll * November 18, 2009 * Obama Approval Dips Below 50% - Quinnipiac University

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November 18, 2009 - Obama Approval Dips Below 50% For First Time, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; Support For U.S. Troops In Afghanistan Drops Below 50%

Word format President Barack Obama's job approval rating is 48 - 42 percent, the first time he has slipped below the 50 percent threshold nationally, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Support for the war in Afghanistan and approval of President Obama's handling of the war also is down in the last month, and Republican support for the war is more than twice as strong as Democratic support.
American voters say 48 - 41 percent that fighting the war in Afghanistan is the right thing to do, down from 52 - 37 percent in an October 7 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. Voters disapprove 49 - 38 percent of the President's handling of the war there, down from 42 - 40 percent approval in October.
But voters say 65 - 29 percent, including 68 - 25 percent among military households, that eliminating the threat of terrorists operating from Afghanistan "is a worthwhile goal for American troops to fight and possibly die for," compared to 65 - 28 percent last month.
Voters say 47 - 42 percent that President Obama should send 40,000 more combat troops to Afghanistan as the military commanders on the ground have requested. Only 27 percent of Democrats want more troops, compared to 68 percent of Republicans. Similarly, 68 percent of Republicans, but only 31 percent of Democrats, think the United States is doing the right thing fighting in Afghanistan.
"Increasingly, the President finds himself with two different coalitions, one that backs him on domestic matters and a completely different one that backs him on Afghanistan. That could create a challenge to his considerable political skills," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
Most American voters, 55 percent, say the U.S. should keep troops in Afghanistan for two years or less, up from 49 percent last month. Only 27 percent of voters say keep troops there as long as it takes, down from 30 percent. And 35 percent say the U.S. is getting into a situation like Vietnam, up from 32 percent last month.
"Although President Obama's job approval rating is below 50 percent for the first time nationally, it is not statistically different from his 50 percent approval rating in October. Nevertheless, in politics symbols matter and this is not a good symbol for the White House," said Brown. "Moreover, the percentage who approve of the way he is handling the economy has dropped from a split 47 - 46 percent approval in October to 52 - 43 percent disapproval today."
The President has a yawning gender and racial gap, with women approving his job performance 52 - 37 percent, compared to men's 47 - 44 percent disapproval. He gets 89 percent job approval among blacks and 62 percent approval among Hispanics while white voters disapprove 49 - 41 percent. His support also wanes as you go up the age and income scale.
"Overall, the new numbers on Afghanistan show an almost across the board erosion of support for the war and worries about getting too deeply involved there militarily. But when the focus is on fighting terror, American resolve remains strong," Brown said.
"Still, these results are an indication that there is not much stomach for a long-term U.S. commitment there and the number of Americans who feel that way is growing.
"One reason the President's approval for his handling of the Afghanistan situation may be falling is the criticism he is not deciding on troop levels quickly enough."
American voters trust Obama 53 - 42 percent to make the right decisions about troop levels, down from 55 - 38 percent in October. Voters trust the military 77 - 18 percent to make the right recommendations on that question, compared to 81 - 15 percent last month.
From November 9 - 16, Quinnipiac University surveyed 2,518 registered voters nationwide with a margin of error of +/- 2 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed - http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.
1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Approve 48% 14% 82% 43% 44% 52% 41% 89% 62% Disapprove 42 77 10 46 47 37 49 6 22 DK/NA 10 9 8 11 8 11 10 5 16 AGE IN YRS....... INCOME............. POL PHIL......... 18-34 35-54 55+ <50 50-100 >100K Lib Mod Con Approve 55% 50% 42% 53% 48% 47% 78% 59% 23% Disapprove 37 41 47 36 46 46 13 30 70 DK/NA 9 9 11 12 7 8 9 11 7 WHITE............. NoColl Coll BrnAgn Military Degree Degree Evngl Prot Cath Jew Households Approve 47% 52% 24% 32% 44% 75% 39% Disapprove 42 42 67 57 48 22 52 DK/NA 11 6 9 11 8 3 9
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? (*High also 59% Mar 2009)
APPROVE....... High Low Nov 18 Oct 8 Aug 6 July 2 Jun 4 Jun 4 Nov 18 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009* 2009 Approve 48 50 50 57 59 59 48 Disapprove 42 41 42 33 31 31 42 DK/NA 10 9 9 10 10 10 10
6. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling - the economy?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Approve 43% 13% 77% 38% 40% 46% 36% 83% 59% Disapprove 52 84 18 58 57 48 59 13 37 DK/NA 5 4 5 5 3 6 5 5 3 AGE IN YRS....... INCOME............. POL PHIL......... 18-34 35-54 55+ <50 50-100 >100K Lib Mod Con Approve 48% 45% 40% 48% 42% 43% 77% 51% 20% Disapprove 47 52 54 47 55 55 19 44 77 DK/NA 5 3 6 5 3 2 4 5 4 WHITE............. NoColl Coll BrnAgn Military Degree Degree Evngl Prot Cath Jew Households Approve 42% 48% 24% 30% 38% 63% 39% Disapprove 53 49 72 65 58 35 57 DK/NA 5 3 4 5 4 2 4
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling - the economy?
Nov 18 Oct 8 Aug 6 July 2 Apr 29 Apr 1 Mar 4 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 Approve 43 47 45 52 53 55 57 Disapprove 52 46 49 42 38 37 33 DK/NA 5 7 6 6 9 8 10
7. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling - foreign policy?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Approve 49% 19% 81% 45% 47% 52% 43% 87% 60% Disapprove 42 71 13 49 47 38 48 6 34 DK/NA 8 10 7 6 6 10 9 8 6 AGE IN YRS....... INCOME............. POL PHIL......... 18-34 35-54 55+ <50 50-100 >100K Lib Mod Con Approve 58% 51% 43% 54% 46% 52% 79% 61% 24% Disapprove 36 42 47 38 48 43 17 31 68 DK/NA 6 7 10 8 6 6 5 8 8 WHITE............. NoColl Coll BrnAgn Military Degree Degree Evngl Prot Cath Jew Households Approve 48% 53% 28% 35% 45% 75% 43% Disapprove 43 40 62 56 48 23 50 DK/NA 9 6 10 9 6 2 7
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling - foreign policy?
Nov 18 Oct 7 Aug 6 July 2 Apr 29 Apr 1 Mar 5 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 Approve 49 49 52 55 57 56 56 Disapprove 42 37 38 35 32 25 21 DK/NA 8 13 10 9 11 19 23
9. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling - the situation in Afghanistan?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Approve 38% 20% 63% 30% 36% 40% 33% 70% 47% Disapprove 49 69 25 57 54 45 54 20 44 DK/NA 12 11 13 12 10 15 13 10 9 AGE IN YRS....... INCOME............. POL PHIL......... 18-34 35-54 55+ <50 50-100 >100K Lib Mod Con Approve 44% 41% 32% 40% 39% 41% 55% 46% 22% Disapprove 48 49 52 47 52 53 33 41 67 DK/NA 8 10 16 14 9 6 12 13 11 WHITE............. NoColl Coll BrnAgn Military Degree Degree Evngl Prot Cath Jew Households Approve 37% 41% 28% 29% 32% 50% 33% Disapprove 50 48 61 56 57 31 57 DK/NA 13 12 10 14 11 19 10
TREND:Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling - the situation in Afghanistan?
Nov 18 Oct 7 2009 2009 Approve 38 42 Disapprove 49 40 DK/NA 12 17
13. Would you describe the state of the nation's economy these days as - excellent, good, not so good, or poor?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Excellent - - 1% - 1% - - 1% - Good 8 4 12 7 8 7 6 13 9 Not so good 42 31 56 39 42 43 40 49 56 Poor 49 65 31 54 49 49 52 36 35 DK/NA 1 - - 1 1 - 1 - - AGE IN YRS....... INCOME............. POL PHIL......... 18-34 35-54 55+ <50 50-100 >100K Lib Mod Con Excellent 1% - - - - 1% - - - Good 11 6 7 9 8 5 13 7 5 Not so good 47 42 39 43 39 45 52 49 31 Poor 40 52 53 48 53 49 34 43 62 DK/NA - - 1 - - - - - - WHITE............. NoColl Coll BrnAgn Military Degree Degree Evngl Prot Cath Jew Households Excellent - - - - 1% - - Good 8 7 4 5 6 15 5 Not so good 40 47 37 38 41 55 39 Poor 51 45 59 57 52 30 55 DK/NA 1 - - - - - 1
TREND: Would you describe the state of the nation's economy these days as - excellent, good, not so good, or poor?
EXLNT+GOOD.... High Low Nov 18 Aug 6 July 2 Apr 29 Apr 1 Dec 10 Mar 4 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2003 2009 Excellent - - 1 - 1 3 - Good 8 6 7 6 4 37 3 Not so good 42 49 44 41 39 42 28 Poor 49 44 47 52 56 16 68 DK/NA 1 - 1 1 - 1 -
27. Do you think the U.S. is doing the right thing by fighting the war in Afghanistan now, or should the U.S. not be involved in Afghanistan now?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Right thing 48% 68% 31% 51% 52% 44% 53% 25% 38% Shouldn't be inv 41 22 58 39 39 43 35 67 57 DK/NA 11 10 11 10 8 12 11 8 5 AGE IN YRS....... INCOME............. POL PHIL......... 18-34 35-54 55+ <50 50-100 >100K Lib Mod Con Right thing 48% 53% 43% 42% 56% 55% 35% 44% 61% Shouldn't be inv 43 40 43 46 38 37 55 45 30 DK/NA 9 7 14 12 6 8 10 11 9 WHITE............. NoColl Coll BrnAgn Military Degree Degree Evngl Prot Cath Jew Households Right thing 45% 56% 60% 58% 48% 57% 48% Shouldn't be inv 44 34 30 31 40 34 42 DK/NA 10 10 10 11 12 9 10
TREND: Do you think the U.S. is doing the right thing by fighting the war in Afghanistan now, or should the U.S. not be involved in Afghanistan now?
Nov 18 Oct 7 2009 2009 Right thing 48 52 Shouldn't be inv 41 37 DK/NA 11 11
28. Do you think building a stable democratic government in Afghanistan is a worthwhile goal for American troops to fight and possibly die for or not?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Yes 37% 54% 25% 36% 40% 34% 42% 12% 32% No 54 37 66 54 53 54 48 80 59 DK/NA 10 9 9 9 7 12 10 8 9 AGE IN YRS....... INCOME............. POL PHIL......... 18-34 35-54 55+ <50 50-100 >100K Lib Mod Con Yes 36% 39% 35% 32% 45% 40% 24% 32% 49% No 56 53 52 60 47 50 67 59 42 DK/NA 8 8 13 8 8 9 8 9 9 WHITE............. NoColl Coll BrnAgn Military Degree Degree Evngl Prot Cath Jew Households Yes 34% 45% 49% 45% 40% 42% 40% No 56 46 43 44 49 46 50 DK/NA 10 9 8 11 11 12 10
TREND: Do you think building a stable democratic government in Afghanistan is a worthwhile goal for American troops to fight and possibly die for or not?
Nov 18 Oct 7 2009 2009 Yes 37 39 No 54 52 DK/NA 10 9
29. Do you think the United States will be successful in building a stable democratic government in Afghanistan or not?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Yes 22% 31% 17% 20% 24% 20% 22% 18% 29% No 63 51 68 68 64 63 63 69 57 DK/NA 15 17 15 11 13 16 15 13 13 AGE IN YRS....... INCOME............. POL PHIL......... 18-34 35-54 55+ <50 50-100 >100K Lib Mod Con Yes 24% 24% 19% 21% 28% 20% 14% 21% 27% No 62 65 64 65 62 66 74 65 57 DK/NA 14 10 17 14 10 14 11 14 16 WHITE............. NoColl Coll BrnAgn Military Degree Degree Evngl Prot Cath Jew Households Yes 22% 23% 25% 22% 24% 13% 22% No 64 63 61 63 60 66 64 DK/NA 15 13 14 16 16 21 14
TREND: Do you think the United States will be successful in building a stable democratic government in Afghanistan or not?
Nov 18 Oct 7 2009 2009 Yes 22 22 No 63 62 DK/NA 15 16
30. Do you think eliminating the threat from terrorists operating from Afghanistan is a worthwhile goal for American troops to fight and possibly die for or not?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Yes 65% 81% 52% 67% 71% 58% 69% 43% 53% No 29 15 39 28 25 32 24 46 40 DK/NA 7 4 9 5 4 10 7 11 7 AGE IN YRS....... INCOME............. POL PHIL......... 18-34 35-54 55+ <50 50-100 >100K Lib Mod Con Yes 69% 68% 58% 56% 73% 74% 55% 63% 73% No 29 27 30 36 23 23 40 30 22 DK/NA 3 5 11 8 4 3 5 7 5 WHITE............. NoColl Coll BrnAgn Military Degree Degree Evngl Prot Cath Jew Households Yes 61% 73% 73% 73% 69% 68% 68% No 31 23 20 20 25 26 25 DK/NA 8 4 7 8 6 6 7
TREND: Do you think eliminating the threat from terrorists operating from Afghanistan is a worthwhile goal for American troops to fight and possibly die for or not?
Nov 18 Oct 7 2009 2009 Yes 65 65 No 29 28 DK/NA 7 7
31. Do you think the United States will be successful in eliminating the threat from terrorists operating from Afghanistan or not?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Yes 36% 47% 31% 36% 39% 33% 35% 35% 44% No 53 41 57 55 52 54 53 56 47 DK/NA 11 12 11 9 9 13 12 9 8 AGE IN YRS....... INCOME............. POL PHIL......... 18-34 35-54 55+ <50 50-100 >100K Lib Mod Con Yes 38% 39% 33% 34% 39% 38% 27% 34% 44% No 55 53 52 55 53 54 63 57 44 DK/NA 8 8 16 11 8 8 10 9 12 WHITE............. NoColl Coll BrnAgn Military Degree Degree Evngl Prot Cath Jew Households Yes 36% 37% 38% 37% 39% 38% 34% No 53 53 50 51 50 47 55 DK/NA 11 10 12 11 11 16 11
TREND: Do you think the United States will be successful in eliminating the threat from terrorists operating from Afghanistan or not?
Nov 18 Oct 7 2009 2009 Yes 36 38 No 53 49 DK/NA 11 13
32. General Stanley McChrystal, the top U.S. commander in Afghanistan, has asked President Obama to send 40,000 additional combat troops. Should Obama send the troops or not?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Yes 47% 68% 27% 53% 57% 39% 53% 19% 32% No 42 22 61 38 36 47 36 73 60 DK/NA 11 10 12 9 7 14 12 8 8 AGE IN YRS....... INCOME............. POL PHIL......... 18-34 35-54 55+ <50 50-100 >100K Lib Mod Con Yes 41% 51% 48% 41% 54% 53% 30% 41% 64% No 49 41 38 49 36 35 59 47 28 DK/NA 10 8 14 10 10 12 11 13 8 WHITE............. NoColl Coll BrnAgn Military Degree Degree Evngl Prot Cath Jew Households Yes 46% 52% 60% 57% 52% 38% 53% No 44 37 29 31 38 42 37 DK/NA 10 12 11 12 9 20 10
33. Do you think President Obama should replace McChrystal or not?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Yes 13% 5% 18% 13% 11% 15% 9% 28% 25% No 63 78 51 66 72 54 67 50 48 DK/NA 24 17 30 21 17 31 25 22 27 AGE IN YRS....... INCOME............. POL PHIL......... 18-34 35-54 55+ <50 50-100 >100K Lib Mod Con Yes 20% 14% 7% 17% 9% 10% 19% 13% 11% No 59 64 65 58 72 66 54 60 72 DK/NA 21 22 27 25 18 25 28 27 17 WHITE............. NoColl Coll BrnAgn Military Degree Degree Evngl Prot Cath Jew Households Yes 15% 8% 9% 7% 7% 4% 11% No 59 72 70 68 72 75 66 DK/NA 26 20 21 25 20 20 23
34. How much longer would you be willing to have large numbers of U.S. troops remain in Afghanistan - less than a year, one to two years, two to five years, five to ten years, or as long as it takes?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Less than 1 year 31% 19% 42% 28% 26% 36% 29% 44% 38% 1 to 2 years 24 17 30 25 23 25 23 31 28 2 to 5 years 12 14 10 13 14 10 13 6 10 5 to 10 years 2 2 1 1 3 - 2 - - Long as it takes 27 43 15 27 30 24 29 15 17 DK/NA 5 5 3 5 4 6 5 4 7 AGE IN YRS....... INCOME............. POL PHIL......... 18-34 35-54 55+ <50 50-100 >100K Lib Mod Con Less than 1 year 31% 32% 32% 36% 28% 24% 41% 34% 23% 1 to 2 years 25 24 22 23 27 25 31 28 17 2 to 5 years 13 12 12 9 13 17 9 13 13 5 to 10 years 2 1 1 1 1 2 - 2 2 Long as it takes 27 28 26 25 27 30 13 19 41 DK/NA 2 4 7 5 4 2 4 3 5 WHITE............. NoColl Coll BrnAgn Military Degree Degree Evngl Prot Cath Jew Households Less than 1 year 35% 23% 25% 25% 31% 22% 32% 1 to 2 years 23 26 20 21 24 30 21 2 to 5 years 10 17 14 16 11 16 11 5 to 10 years 2 2 1 2 1 6 2 Long as it takes 27 28 35 30 29 26 30 DK/NA 4 5 4 5 4 1 5
TREND: How much longer would you be willing to have large numbers of U.S. troops remain in Afghanistan - less than a year, one to two years, two to five years, five to ten years, or as long as it takes?
Nov 18 Oct 7 2009 2009 Less than 1 year 31 28 1 to 2 years 24 21 2 to 5 years 12 14 5 to 10 years 2 2 Long as it takes 27 30 DK/NA 5 6
35. Do you trust President Obama to make the right decisions about U.S. troop levels in Afghanistan or not?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Yes 53% 26% 84% 46% 48% 57% 48% 82% 61% No 42 70 12 47 48 36 46 13 33 DK/NA 6 4 4 7 4 7 6 5 6 AGE IN YRS....... INCOME............. POL PHIL......... 18-34 35-54 55+ <50 50-100 >100K Lib Mod Con Yes 57% 55% 48% 57% 52% 54% 74% 65% 31% No 40 40 44 37 46 43 22 31 64 DK/NA 4 4 8 6 2 3 4 5 5 WHITE............. NoColl Coll BrnAgn Military Degree Degree Evngl Prot Cath Jew Households Yes 52% 56% 36% 43% 52% 64% 46% No 42 40 59 51 44 29 48 DK/NA 6 4 5 6 5 7 5
TREND: Do you trust President Obama to make the right decisions about U.S. troop levels in Afghanistan or not?
Nov 18 Oct 7 2009 2009 Yes 53 55 No 42 38 DK/NA 6 7
36. Do you trust the U.S. military to make the right recommendations about U.S. troop levels in Afghanistan or not?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Yes 77% 91% 68% 78% 78% 76% 79% 68% 75% No 18 7 26 18 19 17 16 26 24 DK/NA 5 2 6 4 3 6 5 5 2 AGE IN YRS....... INCOME............. POL PHIL......... 18-34 35-54 55+ <50 50-100 >100K Lib Mod Con Yes 80% 78% 74% 75% 81% 78% 63% 76% 87% No 18 19 18 20 16 20 30 20 10 DK/NA 2 3 8 6 3 2 7 4 3 WHITE............. NoColl Coll BrnAgn Military Degree Degree Evngl Prot Cath Jew Households Yes 77% 78% 88% 82% 79% 61% 78% No 18 18 9 12 16 28 17 DK/NA 5 4 3 6 4 11 5
TREND: Do you trust the U.S. military to make the right recommendations about U.S. troop levels in Afghanistan or not?
Nov 18 Oct 7 2009 2009 Yes 77 81 No 18 15 DK/NA 5 4
37. Which concerns you more - the United States will stay in Afghanistan too long or the United States will leave Afghanistan too soon?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Stay too long 54% 32% 71% 56% 50% 58% 51% 76% 57% Leave too soon 38 61 20 38 44 32 42 18 38 DK/NA 7 6 9 6 6 9 8 6 5 AGE IN YRS....... INCOME............. POL PHIL......... 18-34 35-54 55+ <50 50-100 >100K Lib Mod Con Stay too long 55% 58% 51% 60% 53% 52% 71% 63% 39% Leave too soon 41 39 36 32 43 44 21 31 55 DK/NA 4 3 13 8 5 4 8 6 7 WHITE............. NoColl Coll BrnAgn Military Degree Degree Evngl Prot Cath Jew Households Stay too long 56% 50% 43% 46% 52% 53% 52% Leave too soon 36 44 49 45 41 40 41 DK/NA 8 6 8 9 8 7 7
TREND: Which concerns you more - the United States will stay in Afghanistan too long, or the United States will leave Afghanistan too soon?
Nov 18 Oct 7 2009 2009 Stay too long 54 50 Leave too soon 38 42 DK/NA 7 8
38. Do you think the United States is heading for the same kind of involvement in Afghanistan as it had in the Vietnam War, or do you think the United States will avoid that kind of involvement this time?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Same as Vietnam 35% 30% 35% 39% 37% 34% 36% 28% 37% Will avoid that 51 56 51 50 54 48 50 58 52 DK/NA 13 14 15 11 9 18 13 14 11 AGE IN YRS....... INCOME............. POL PHIL......... 18-34 35-54 55+ <50 50-100 >100K Lib Mod Con Same as Vietnam 36% 36% 36% 37% 37% 32% 43% 37% 30% Will avoid that 54 53 47 50 53 58 45 51 56 DK/NA 10 11 17 13 10 9 11 12 14 WHITE............. NoColl Coll BrnAgn Military Degree Degree Evngl Prot Cath Jew Households Same as Vietnam 37% 31% 35% 34% 37% 27% 40% Will avoid that 49 57 49 51 53 66 48 DK/NA 14 11 16 15 10 7 12
TREND: Do you think the United States is heading for the same kind of involvement in Afghanistan as it had in the Vietnam war, or do you think the United States will avoid that kind of involvement this time?
Nov 18 Oct 7 2009 2009 Same as Vietnam 35 32 Will avoid that 51 56 DK/NA 13 12