National (US) Poll * December 8, 2009 * Obama Gets Surge In Afghan War - Quinnipiac University

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December 8, 2009 - Obama Gets Surge In Afghan War Approval, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; But Only 26% Of U.S. Voters Say He Deserves Nobel Prize

Word format Public support for the war in Afghanistan is up nine percentage points in the last three weeks, as American voters say 57 - 35 percent that fighting the war is the right thing to do. Approval of President Barack Obama's handling of the war is up seven points in the same period, from a 38 - 49 percent negative November 18 to a 45 - 45 percent split, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
American voters approve 58 - 37 percent of President Obama's decision to send 30,000 more combat troops to the war-torn nation, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-per-ack) University poll finds. And voters approve 60 - 32 percent of the President's plan to begin withdrawing combat troops from Afghanistan in July 2011. But by a 45 - 40 percent margin, Americans do not believe he will be able to keep that promise.
The jump in public support for Obama's war policy comes as voters say 66 - 26 percent he does not deserve the Nobel Peace Prize he will be awarded this week, and 41 percent say the Nobel committee's choice of Obama for the award causes them to think less of it, while 6 percent say it makes them think better of the prize and 49 percent say it makes no difference.
"President Barack Obama's nationally televised speech explaining his policy and troop buildup has worked, at least in the short term, in bolstering support for the war effort and his decisions," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "History teaches that the bully pulpit can be a powerful tool for a president who knows how to use it, especially when it comes to foreign policy. The American people tend to rally around their presidents in military matters, at least for a while. It took some time for similar type speeches about Vietnam and Iraq by Presidents Lyndon Johnson and George W. Bush respectively to lose their ability to rally support."
"It's probably a good thing for President Obama that the time difference from Norway means the Nobel presentation will occur while most Americans are sleeping and might get less coverage in the United States," Brown added. "Two out of three Americans don't think he deserves it compared to the quarter who do. Even among Democrats, only 49 percent think he deserves it, compared to 8 percent of Republicans and 19 percent of independent voters. As is the case with many questions related to the President there are wide gender and racial gaps."
Among women, 31 percent think Obama deserves the award, compared to only 19 percent of men. Seventy-three percent of blacks, 29 percent of Hispanics and 18 percent of whites think so.
In a November 18 Quinnipiac University survey, American voters said 48 - 41 percent that fighting in Afghanistan was the right thing to do. Since then Democrats have moved from 58 - 31 percent against the war to a 47 - 46 percent split. Republican support inched up from 68 - 22 percent to 71 - 21 percent and independent backing is up from 51 - 39 percent to 58 - 34 percent.
"The dichotomy between the almost two-to-one support for setting a July 2011 date for beginning withdrawal of combat troops from Afghanistan and the doubt that Obama will be able to deliver on the promise reflects a skeptical public about America's ability to triumph there," Brown said.
"Similarly, American voters say 64 - 30 percent that eliminating the threat from terrorists operating from Afghanistan is a worthwhile goal for American troops to fight and possibly die for, but those same voters say 52 - 38 percent they don't think the United States will be successful in eliminating the terrorist threat from Afghanistan."
From December 1 - 6, Quinnipiac University surveyed 2,313 registered voters nationwide with a margin of error of +/- 2 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.
6. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling - foreign policy?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Approve 46% 21% 73% 42% 44% 49% 40% 79% 62% Disapprove 45 70 17 51 48 42 50 17 35 DK/NA 9 9 9 7 8 9 9 4 3 AGE IN YRS....... INCOME............. POL PHIL......... 18-34 35-54 55+ <50 50-100 >100K Lib Mod Con Approve 54% 45% 44% 48% 44% 48% 74% 56% 23% Disapprove 40 48 46 42 49 48 19 37 69 DK/NA 7 7 11 10 7 3 7 7 8 WHITE............. NoColl Coll BrnAgn Military Degree Degree Evngl Prot Cath Jew Households Approve 44% 52% 25% 35% 42% 50% 42% Disapprove 46 44 65 56 49 47 50 DK/NA 10 5 10 9 9 3 8
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling - foreign policy?
APPROVE....... High Low Dec 8 Nov 18 Oct 7 Aug 6 July 2 Apr 29 Dec 8 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 Approve 46 49 49 52 55 57 46 Disapprove 45 42 37 38 35 32 45 DK/NA 9 8 13 10 9 11 9
8. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling - the situation in Afghanistan?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Approve 45% 36% 55% 43% 47% 42% 43% 60% 45% Disapprove 45 54 34 47 44 46 46 33 45 DK/NA 11 10 10 10 10 11 11 7 10 AGE IN YRS....... INCOME............. POL PHIL......... 18-34 35-54 55+ <50 50-100 >100K Lib Mod Con Approve 46% 46% 42% 44% 44% 47% 54% 50% 35% Disapprove 45 45 45 46 47 44 37 40 55 DK/NA 9 9 13 10 10 9 9 10 10 WHITE............. NoColl Coll BrnAgn Military Degree Degree Evngl Prot Cath Jew Households Approve 43% 49% 39% 42% 46% 55% 44% Disapprove 46 42 50 45 45 40 46 DK/NA 11 9 10 13 9 5 10
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling - the situation in Afghanistan?
Dec 8 Nov 18 Oct 7 2009 2009 2009 Approve 45 38 42 Disapprove 45 49 40 DK/NA 11 12 17
17. Do you think the U.S. is doing the right thing by fighting the war in Afghanistan now, or should the U.S. not be involved in Afghanistan now?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Right thing 57% 71% 47% 58% 66% 49% 62% 42% 38% Shouldn't be inv 35 21 46 34 29 41 31 50 54 DK/NA 8 7 6 8 5 10 7 8 8 AGE IN YRS....... INCOME............. POL PHIL......... 18-34 35-54 55+ <50 50-100 >100K Lib Mod Con Right thing 52% 62% 54% 55% 62% 63% 46% 56% 66% Shouldn't be inv 41 32 36 39 31 31 47 37 28 DK/NA 6 6 10 6 7 7 7 7 6 WHITE............. NoColl Coll BrnAgn Military Degree Degree Evngl Prot Cath Jew Households Right thing 55% 62% 70% 66% 61% 64% 64% Shouldn't be inv 37 30 25 27 34 29 31 DK/NA 7 8 6 8 6 7 6
TREND: Do you think the U.S. is doing the right thing by fighting the war in Afghanistan now, or should the U.S. not be involved in Afghanistan now?
Dec 8 Nov 18 Oct 7 2009 2009 2009 Right thing 57 48 52 Shouldn't be inv 35 41 37 DK/NA 8 11 11
18. Do you think eliminating the threat from terrorists operating from Afghanistan is a worthwhile goal for American troops to fight and possibly die for or not?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Yes 64% 79% 56% 62% 73% 56% 68% 50% 44% No 30 15 38 32 24 36 26 42 55 DK/NA 6 6 6 6 4 9 6 8 1 AGE IN YRS....... INCOME............. POL PHIL......... 18-34 35-54 55+ <50 50-100 >100K Lib Mod Con Yes 60% 71% 59% 58% 72% 73% 53% 63% 73% No 36 25 32 36 22 24 40 31 23 DK/NA 4 4 10 6 6 4 7 6 5 WHITE............. NoColl Coll BrnAgn Military Degree Degree Evngl Prot Cath Jew Households Yes 62% 70% 76% 71% 67% 71% 70% No 32 25 20 23 28 19 26 DK/NA 7 5 5 6 4 11 4
TREND: Do you think eliminating the threat from terrorists operating from Afghanistan is a worthwhile goal for American troops to fight and possibly die for or not?
Dec 8 Nov 18 Oct 7 2009 2009 2009 Yes 64 65 65 No 30 29 28 DK/NA 6 7 7
19. Do you think the United States will be successful in eliminating the threat from terrorists operating from Afghanistan or not?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Yes 38% 46% 39% 33% 40% 35% 38% 44% 27% No 52 39 52 58 51 52 51 45 64 DK/NA 11 16 9 9 8 13 11 10 9 AGE IN YRS....... INCOME............. POL PHIL......... 18-34 35-54 55+ <50 50-100 >100K Lib Mod Con Yes 41% 39% 34% 39% 38% 41% 27% 39% 43% No 53 52 50 51 53 50 65 52 45 DK/NA 6 9 16 11 8 9 9 9 13 WHITE............. NoColl Coll BrnAgn Military Degree Degree Evngl Prot Cath Jew Households Yes 38% 37% 44% 38% 41% 36% 39% No 51 53 44 49 50 58 51 DK/NA 11 11 12 13 10 6 11
TREND: Do you think the United States will be successful in eliminating the threat from terrorists operating from Afghanistan or not?
Dec 8 Nov 18 Oct 7 2009 2009 2009 Yes 38 36 38 No 52 53 49 DK/NA 11 11 13
20. Do you approve or disapprove of President Obama's decision to send 30,000 additional troops to Afghanistan?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Approve 58% 70% 50% 57% 65% 50% 61% 48% 33% Disapprove 37 26 43 37 29 43 33 47 63 DK/NA 6 5 6 6 5 6 6 6 5 AGE IN YRS....... INCOME............. POL PHIL......... 18-34 35-54 55+ <50 50-100 >100K Lib Mod Con Approve 53% 60% 58% 53% 65% 62% 48% 56% 66% Disapprove 43 35 35 41 31 32 47 39 28 DK/NA 4 5 7 6 4 5 5 5 5 WHITE............. NoColl Coll BrnAgn Military Degree Degree Evngl Prot Cath Jew Households Approve 55% 64% 67% 64% 64% 64% 63% Disapprove 39 30 28 30 31 26 31 DK/NA 6 6 5 6 5 10 6
21. Do you approve or disapprove of President Obama's decision to begin withdrawing U.S. troops from Afghanistan in July 2011?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Approve 60% 36% 82% 56% 55% 65% 55% 85% 67% Disapprove 32 57 12 35 38 26 37 8 22 DK/NA 8 6 6 9 7 9 8 7 11 AGE IN YRS....... INCOME............. POL PHIL......... 18-34 35-54 55+ <50 50-100 >100K Lib Mod Con Approve 69% 57% 58% 68% 51% 52% 82% 66% 43% Disapprove 24 37 33 27 38 41 11 27 49 DK/NA 8 6 9 5 11 7 7 7 8 WHITE............. NoColl Coll BrnAgn Military Degree Degree Evngl Prot Cath Jew Households Approve 62% 55% 45% 50% 59% 63% 54% Disapprove 29 40 47 41 34 23 38 DK/NA 9 6 8 9 7 14 8
22. Do you think President Obama will or will not begin withdrawing U.S. troops from Afghanistan in July 2011?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Will 40% 33% 57% 32% 38% 43% 38% 63% 41% Will not 45 51 31 53 48 42 48 25 46 DK/NA 14 15 11 15 14 15 14 12 13 AGE IN YRS....... INCOME............. POL PHIL......... 18-34 35-54 55+ <50 50-100 >100K Lib Mod Con Will 46% 37% 40% 43% 38% 37% 50% 45% 33% Will not 43 53 39 44 50 51 35 44 53 DK/NA 11 10 22 14 13 12 15 11 15 WHITE............. NoColl Coll BrnAgn Military Degree Degree Evngl Prot Cath Jew Households Will 40% 42% 36% 34% 41% 46% 36% Will not 45 46 50 52 48 44 50 DK/NA 15 12 14 14 11 10 14
23. How much longer would you be willing to have large numbers of U.S. troops remain in Afghanistan - less than a year, one to two years, two to five years, five to ten years, or as long as it takes?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Less than 1 year 27% 13% 35% 30% 23% 32% 25% 31% 46% 1 to 2 years 22 15 30 21 20 25 21 35 16 2 to 5 years 14 17 13 14 18 10 16 6 8 5 to 10 years 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 - 3 Long as it takes 31 48 19 30 36 27 33 24 23 DK/NA 4 6 3 3 2 6 4 5 3 AGE IN YRS....... INCOME............. POL PHIL......... 18-34 35-54 55+ <50 50-100 >100K Lib Mod Con Less than 1 year 32% 26% 27% 32% 23% 21% 39% 29% 18% 1 to 2 years 23 22 22 22 23 20 31 26 14 2 to 5 years 13 15 14 13 16 16 10 16 15 5 to 10 years 1 2 1 1 1 2 1 1 2 Long as it takes 30 33 30 29 33 37 16 25 46 DK/NA 1 2 7 3 4 3 2 3 5 WHITE............. NoColl Coll BrnAgn Military Degree Degree Evngl Prot Cath Jew Households Less than 1 year 29% 22% 20% 20% 28% 19% 24% 1 to 2 years 21 26 17 19 23 32 21 2 to 5 years 13 16 19 16 16 14 14 5 to 10 years 1 1 2 1 1 5 2 Long as it takes 31 32 39 39 29 29 34 DK/NA 4 3 4 5 3 - 5
TREND: How much longer would you be willing to have large numbers of U.S. troops remain in Afghanistan - less than a year, one to two years, two to five years, five to ten years, or as long as it takes?
Dec 8 Nov 18 Oct 7 2009 2009 2009 Less than 1 year 27 31 28 1 to 2 years 22 24 21 2 to 5 years 14 12 14 5 to 10 years 1 2 2 Long as it takes 31 27 30 DK/NA 4 5 6
24. Do you think the United States is heading for the same kind of involvement in Afghanistan as it had in the Vietnam War, or do you think the United States will avoid that kind of involvement this time?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Same as Vietnam 32% 28% 27% 38% 33% 31% 33% 23% 35% Will avoid that 57 57 66 51 59 55 57 65 56 DK/NA 11 15 7 11 8 14 10 12 9 AGE IN YRS....... INCOME............. POL PHIL......... 18-34 35-54 55+ <50 50-100 >100K Lib Mod Con Same as Vietnam 30% 31% 36% 33% 33% 26% 36% 32% 31% Will avoid that 58 62 52 56 58 68 57 60 57 DK/NA 12 7 13 11 9 6 7 8 13 WHITE............. NoColl Coll BrnAgn Military Degree Degree Evngl Prot Cath Jew Households Same as Vietnam 34% 26% 32% 31% 32% 26% 35% Will avoid that 54 67 55 57 61 65 56 DK/NA 12 7 13 11 7 9 10
TREND: Do you think the United States is heading for the same kind of involvement in Afghanistan as it had in the Vietnam war, or do you think the United States will avoid that kind of involvement this time?
Dec 8 Nov 18 Oct 7 2009 2009 2009 Same as Vietnam 32 35 32 Will avoid that 57 51 56 DK/NA 11 13 12
25. Do you think that President Obama deserved to win the Nobel Peace prize or not?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Yes 26% 8% 49% 19% 19% 31% 18% 73% 29% No 66 87 41 73 72 61 73 17 62 DK/NA 9 5 11 8 9 8 8 9 8 AGE IN YRS....... INCOME............. POL PHIL......... 18-34 35-54 55+ <50 50-100 >100K Lib Mod Con Yes 29% 22% 26% 29% 20% 22% 40% 31% 12% No 64 70 62 62 72 74 48 61 82 DK/NA 7 8 12 10 8 4 12 8 6 WHITE............. NoColl Coll BrnAgn Military Degree Degree Evngl Prot Cath Jew Households Yes 26% 24% 11% 15% 20% 21% 23% No 65 70 83 77 73 74 67 DK/NA 10 6 6 8 7 4 10
26. Does the Nobel committee's awarding of the peace prize to President Obama make you think more of the peace prize, less of the peace prize or not affect your view of it?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Think more of 6% 3% 11% 2% 4% 7% 3% 31% 2% Think less of 41 66 17 46 47 36 48 7 34 Not affect view 49 29 68 48 46 52 47 57 59 DK/NA 3 1 4 5 2 4 2 5 5 AGE IN YRS....... INCOME............. POL PHIL......... 18-34 35-54 55+ <50 50-100 >100K Lib Mod Con Think more of 6% 4% 8% 7% 2% 3% 6% 5% 5% Think less of 36 42 44 38 46 46 19 35 62 Not affect view 55 52 44 51 49 49 73 57 30 DK/NA 3 2 5 3 2 2 2 3 3 WHITE............. NoColl Coll BrnAgn Military Degree Degree Evngl Prot Cath Jew Households Think more of 6% 5% 2% 3% 2% 4% 6% Think less of 40 45 62 54 47 40 45 Not affect view 50 49 34 41 48 54 47 DK/NA 4 1 2 3 2 1 3