Connecticut (CT) Poll * February 19, 2007 * Clinton, Giuliani Neck And Nec - Quinnipiac University

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February 19, 2007 - Clinton, Giuliani Neck And Neck In Connecticut, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Dodd A Distant Fourth In Dem Primary Pack

New York Sen. Hillary Clinton and former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani are running neck and neck in Connecticut as they begin their 2008 presidential bid, with 46 percent of voters for Sen. Clinton and 44 percent for Giuliani, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Sen. Clinton tops Arizona Sen. John McCain 48 - 40 percent.
In other possible presidential matchups, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe- ack) University poll finds:
Clinton over former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney 55 - 27 percent; Illinois Sen. Barack Obama over McCain 43 - 38 percent; Sen. Christopher Dodd gets 43 percent to McCain's 42 percent, a tie; McCain over 2004 vice presidential candidate John Edwards 44 - 40 percent.
In a possible Democratic primary, Clinton leads with 33 percent, followed by Obama with 21 percent, former Vice President Al Gore with 9 percent, Sen. Christopher Dodd with 8 percent and Edwards with 5 percent.
Giuliani is the choice of 43 percent of Republicans, followed by McCain with 27 percent, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich at 5 percent and Romney at 4 percent.
"If Sen. Christopher Dodd can't even come close to winning a Democratic primary in his home state, that's obviously a bad sign for his presidential campaign," said Quinnipiac University Poll Director Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D.
Connecticut voters approve 60 - 25 percent of the job Sen. Dodd is doing, but only 30 percent say he would make a good President, with 49 percent saying no and 22 percent undecided.
"While the folks back home think Sen. Dodd is doing a good job in the Senate, they just can't see him in the White House," Dr. Schwartz added.
"The Clinton-Giuliani matchup is close, similar to recent results in Quinnipiac University polls in three potential swing states, Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, and in New Jersey," Schwartz said. "Could Giuliani's crossover appeal and next-door neighbor status put a blue state like Connecticut into play?"
Clinton gets a 53 - 36 percent favorability rating in Connecticut. Favorability ratings for other contenders are:
61 - 22 percent for Giuliani; 52 - 22 percent for McCain; 48 - 10 percent for Obama, with 40 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion; 39 - 28 percent for Edwards, with 30 percent who haven't heard enough; 44 - 49 percent for Gore; 20 - 56 percent for Gingrich; 49 - 30 percent for Dodd; For Romney, 67 percent haven't heard enough to form an opinion.
Connecticut voters disapprove 72 - 24 percent of the job President George W. Bush is doing.
The war in Iraq is the most important problem facing the country today, 51 percent of voters say. Voters disapprove 74 - 22 percent of President Bush's handling of the war in Iraq and oppose 69 - 25 percent the President's plan to send 22,000 more troops to Iraq.
From February 9 - 12, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,087 Connecticut registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points. The survey includes 269 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 6 percentage points, and 414 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4.9 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data -- www.quinnipiac.edu and click on Institutes and Centers, or call (203) 582-5201.
1. (If registered Democrat) If the 2008 Democratic primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Al Gore, Tom Vilsack, Joe Biden, John Edwards, Bill Richardson, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, Chris Dodd, Wesley Clark and Dennis Kucinich for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED DEMOCRATS Tot Men Wom Gore 9% 13% 6% Vilsack - - - Biden 2 2 1 Edwards 5 8 3 Richardson 1 2 1 Clinton 33 24 39 Obama 21 22 21 Dodd 8 6 10 Clark 1 2 - Kucinich 1 - 1 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 4 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 2 DK/NA 16 17 15
2. (If registered Republican) If the 2008 Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Duncan Hunter, Sam Brownback, Tommy Thompson, Jim Gilmore, Chuck Hagel, Mike Huckabee, George Pataki and Tom Tancredo for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED REPUBLICANS Tot Men Wom Giuliani 43% 41% 45% McCain 27 29 25 Romney 4 3 5 Gingrich 5 7 2 Hunter 1 3 - Brownback 1 2 - Thompson - - - Gilmore - - - Hagel 2 2 3 Huckabee 1 - 1 Pataki - - - Tancredo - - - SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 3 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - 1 DK/NA 12 9 15
3. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Clinton 46% 7% 78% 42% 37% 53% Giuliani 44 88 16 46 52 38 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 2 2 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 2 2 2 2 DK/NA 7 3 4 9 8 7 MdlSex Toll,Wndm Fairfld Hrtford Ltchfld NewHvn NewLon Clinton 47% 44% 35% 51% 39% Giuliani 43 46 54 39 48 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - - - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 1 2 2 DK/NA 6 7 10 7 10
4. If..., and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Clinton 55% 16% 87% 52% 49% 60% Romney 27 72 4 24 34 22 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 1 4 3 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 3 3 5 4 3 DK/NA 12 9 6 16 10 13 MdlSex Toll,Wndm Fairfld Hrtford Ltchfld NewHvn NewLon Clinton 56% 55% 38% 60% 50% Romney 26 28 34 25 28 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 3 2 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 4 5 3 4 DK/NA 11 11 20 10 15
5. If..., and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Clinton 48% 7% 84% 43% 40% 55% McCain 40 84 11 42 46 35 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 - 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 1 2 2 1 DK/NA 9 4 4 12 9 8 MdlSex Toll,Wndm Fairfld Hrtford Ltchfld NewHvn NewLon Clinton 50% 47% 32% 53% 46% McCain 41 41 55 35 39 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 3 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 3 2 2 2 DK/NA 8 7 10 9 12
6. If..., and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Obama 43% 14% 68% 38% 38% 46% McCain 38 74 18 37 45 32 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 2 3 3 1 DK/NA 15 8 11 20 11 19 MdlSex Toll,Wndm Fairfld Hrtford Ltchfld NewHvn NewLon Obama 39% 46% 31% 47% 42% McCain 44 37 43 34 34 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 1 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 4 4 2 1 DK/NA 16 11 20 15 21
7. If..., and the candidates were John Edwards the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Edwards 40% 6% 69% 35% 37% 43% McCain 44 83 18 46 49 39 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 3 2 3 1 DK/NA 13 8 8 16 9 15 MdlSex Toll,Wndm Fairfld Hrtford Ltchfld NewHvn NewLon Edwards 36% 43% 35% 43% 40% McCain 48 41 42 44 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 1 3 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 5 2 1 DK/NA 13 12 18 9 17
8. If..., and the candidates were Chris Dodd the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Dodd 43% 11% 72% 37% 38% 47% McCain 42 79 16 46 48 36 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 2 3 3 1 DK/NA 11 8 9 13 10 13 MdlSex Toll,Wndm Fairfld Hrtford Ltchfld NewHvn NewLon Dodd 41% 44% 26% 48% 45% McCain 45 42 46 39 40 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 3 3 2 1 DK/NA 12 8 24 10 13
9. Is your opinion of -- Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 53% 13% 83% 53% 46% 59% Unfavorable 36 79 11 34 42 30 Hvn't hrd enough 8 5 5 11 10 7 REFUSED 3 4 2 2 2 4
10. Is your opinion of -- Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 48% 38% 65% 42% 43% 51% Unfavorable 10 16 5 11 13 8 Hvn't hrd enough 40 43 30 46 42 39 REFUSED 2 3 1 2 1 3
11. Is your opinion of -- John McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 52% 78% 38% 52% 56% 48% Unfavorable 22 9 33 20 24 21 Hvn't hrd enough 22 11 27 23 16 28 REFUSED 4 2 2 5 4 4
12. Is your opinion of -- Rudy Giuliani favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 61% 87% 46% 64% 65% 58% Unfavorable 22 5 36 20 23 21 Hvn't hrd enough 14 8 17 14 11 18 REFUSED 2 1 2 2 1 3
13. Is your opinion of -- Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 13% 33% 5% 10% 15% 11% Unfavorable 19 8 32 15 21 17 Hvn't hrd enough 67 58 62 74 63 70 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 2
14. Is your opinion of -- John Edwards favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 39% 17% 57% 36% 40% 38% Unfavorable 28 49 17 26 33 24 Hvn't hrd enough 30 32 25 34 25 35 REFUSED 3 2 2 4 2 4
15. Is your opinion of -- Chris Dodd favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 49% 32% 64% 45% 45% 52% Unfavorable 30 47 16 35 37 25 Hvn't hrd enough 18 19 18 17 16 20 REFUSED 3 2 2 4 2 4
16. Is your opinion of -- Al Gore favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 44% 25% 65% 39% 42% 46% Unfavorable 49 72 30 53 55 43 Hvn't hrd enough 6 3 4 7 3 9 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 2
17. Is your opinion of -- Bill Richardson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 14% 18% 17% 11% 19% 11% Unfavorable 12 14 14 10 12 12 Hvn't hrd enough 72 66 68 77 67 76 REFUSED 2 1 1 2 2 1
18. Is your opinion of -- Chuck Hagel favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 7% 4% 10% 5% 10% 4% Unfavorable 13 18 14 10 14 12 Hvn't hrd enough 79 77 76 83 74 83 REFUSED 1 1 1 2 2 1
19. Is your opinion of -- Duncan Hunter favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 2% 6% 1% 1% 2% 1% Unfavorable 9 8 13 7 11 7 Hvn't hrd enough 88 85 87 90 84 91 REFUSED 1 1 - 3 2 1
20. Is your opinion of -- Dennis Kucinich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 7% 2% 12% 6% 9% 6% Unfavorable 18 26 18 16 25 13 Hvn't hrd enough 74 73 69 78 66 80 REFUSED 1 - 1 - 1 1
21. Is your opinion of -- George Pataki favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 25% 46% 18% 23% 29% 22% Unfavorable 30 25 36 26 31 29 Hvn't hrd enough 42 27 43 48 38 45 REFUSED 3 2 3 3 3 3
22. Is your opinion of -- Joe Biden favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 18% 16% 25% 14% 21% 15% Unfavorable 25 36 22 23 29 21 Hvn't hrd enough 56 46 52 62 48 62 REFUSED 2 1 1 1 1 2
23. Is your opinion of -- Jim Gilmore favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 2% 3% 1% 1% 1% 2% Unfavorable 7 3 12 6 9 6 Hvn't hrd enough 90 93 86 92 89 91 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 2 1
24. Is your opinion of -- Mike Huckabee favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 5% 12% 2% 4% 8% 3% Unfavorable 9 7 13 8 9 10 Hvn't hrd enough 85 81 84 88 83 86 REFUSED 1 - - 1 - 1
25. Is your opinion of -- Newt Gingrich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 20% 46% 6% 19% 24% 17% Unfavorable 56 35 72 54 55 56 Hvn't hrd enough 22 18 21 25 19 25 REFUSED 2 2 2 2 3 2
26. Is your opinion of -- Sam Brownback favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 3% 7% 3% 2% 3% 3% Unfavorable 15 10 18 15 19 12 Hvn't hrd enough 81 83 78 82 77 84 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 1
27. Is your opinion of -- Tom Vilsack favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 2% 2% 3% 1% 2% 2% Unfavorable 10 11 11 9 13 8 Hvn't hrd enough 87 86 85 89 85 89 REFUSED 1 1 1 - 1 -
28. Is your opinion of -- Tom Tancredo favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 3% 8% 1% 2% 3% 2% Unfavorable 8 5 14 5 12 6 Hvn't hrd enough 87 84 84 91 83 90 REFUSED 2 3 1 2 2 2
29. Is your opinion of -- Tommy Thompson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 7% 12% 4% 6% 8% 6% Unfavorable 12 12 17 8 14 10 Hvn't hrd enough 80 75 78 85 78 83 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 - 2
30. Is your opinion of -- Wesley Clark favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 12% 7% 18% 11% 16% 9% Unfavorable 25 35 20 24 31 20 Hvn't hrd enough 61 57 61 64 52 69 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 2
TREND:. Is your opinion of -- favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him/her? Score = Favorable (Haven't Heard Enough)
Feb 19 2007 Biden, Joe 18(56) Brownback, Sam 3(81) Clark, Wesley 12(61) Clinton, Hillary 53( 8) Dodd, Chris 49(18) Edwards, John 39(30) Gilmore, Jim 2(90) Gingrich, Newt 20(22) Giuliani, Rudy 61(14) Gore, Al 44( 6) Hagel, Chuck 7(79) Huckabee, Mike 5(85) Hunter, Duncan 2(88) Kucinich, Dennis 7(74) McCain, John 52(22) Obama, Barack 48(40) Pataki, George 25(42) Richardson, Bill 14(72) Romney, Mitt 13(67) Tancredo, Tom 3(87) Thompson, Tommy 7(80) Vilsack, Tom 2(87)
31. Do you think Chris Dodd would make a good President or not?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 30% 18% 41% 26% 29% 30% No 49 64 38 50 55 43 DK/NA 22 18 21 23 16 27
34. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Lieberman is handling his job as United States Senator?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 52% 81% 34% 54% 52% 53% Disapprove 40 13 58 39 42 39 DK/NA 7 6 7 7 6 9 MdlSex Toll,Wndm Fairfld Hrtford Ltchfld NewHvn NewLon Approve 54% 50% 54% 52% 52% Disapprove 38 44 40 39 39 DK/NA 8 5 6 9 8
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joseph Lieberman is handling his job as United States Senator?
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Feb 19 Aug 17 Jul 20 Jun 8 May 2 Sep 21 Jul 31 2007 2006 2006 2006 2006 2000 2003 Approve 52 55 55 56 59 80 51 Disapprove 40 40 35 32 29 14 33 DK/NA 7 6 10 13 12 6 17
35. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Chris Dodd is handling his job as United States Senator?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 60% 40% 78% 58% 56% 63% Disapprove 25 42 11 27 31 20 DK/NA 15 18 12 15 13 17 MdlSex Toll,Wndm Fairfld Hrtford Ltchfld NewHvn NewLon Approve 62% 63% 50% 58% 60% Disapprove 21 25 39 26 23 DK/NA 16 13 11 16 17
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Christopher Dodd is handling his job as United States Senator? (* = Also hit 52% on 2/14/2002)
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Feb 19 Aug 17 Jul 20 Jun 8 May 2 Apr 19 May 1 2007 2006 2006 2006 2006 2001 2003 * Approve 60 57 57 57 58 71 52 Disapprove 25 27 25 24 27 16 16 DK/NA 15 16 19 19 15 13 31
36. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 24% 65% 4% 19% 25% 23% Disapprove 72 29 95 75 72 72 DK/NA 5 6 - 6 4 5
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President? (* also hit 24% 6/8/06)
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Feb 19 Aug 17 Jul 20 Jun 8 May 2 Dec 19 Feb 19 2007 2006 2006 2006 2006 2001 2007 Approve 24 29 27 24 25 87 24 Disapprove 72 67 68 72 71 10 72 DK/NA 5 4 5 4 4 2 5
36a. Generally speaking, would you say things in this country are heading in the right direction, or are they off on the wrong track?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Right direction 19% 51% 7% 15% 20% 19% Wrong track 74 38 91 77 74 73 DK/NA 7 11 2 8 7 7
36. What do you think is the most important problem facing the country today?
Tot War (Iraq) 51% Healthcare/Costs/ Ins/HMO's 7% Economy Total 6% Economy general 3 Unemployment/jobs 1 Cost of living 1 Business leaving/ Outsourcing 1 Terrorism Total 5% Terrorism general 3 Security/Safety 2 Foreign Affairs Total 4% Foreign affairs/ policy general 2 Priorities s/b at home, not abroad 1 Middle East 1 Politicians Total 3% Politicians/ Campaigns general 1 *Bush administration 2 Education general 2% Immigration 2% Budget general 1 Energy costs general 1 Environment/Pollution 1 Lack of ethics/Morality 1 Poverty/Homeless 1 Taxes general 1 Other 5 DK/NA 3
37. Which political party do you think can do a better job of handling that problem, the Republican Party or the Democratic Party?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Republican 24% 75% 1% 18% 27% 21% Democratic 52 10 88 46 49 54 NO DIFFERENCE(VOL) 15 10 7 22 14 15 DK/NA 10 5 4 14 10 10
38. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the situation with Iraq?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 22% 57% 4% 19% 21% 22% Disapprove 74 38 94 77 74 74 DK/NA 4 5 2 4 5 4
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the situation with Iraq?
Feb 19 Aug 17 Jul 20 Jun 8 May 2 Feb 16 Jan 11 2007 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 Approve 22 26 25 23 25 29 32 Disapprove 74 70 70 73 71 66 64 DK/NA 4 4 4 4 4 5 4
39. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Right thing 30% 68% 9% 28% 31% 29% Wrong thing 65 26 90 65 63 67 DK/NA 5 6 1 7 6 4
TREND: Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?
Feb 19 Aug 17 Jul 20 Jun 8 May 2 Feb 16 Jan 11 2007 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 Right thing 30 33 31 33 34 34 35 Wrong thing 65 62 63 63 61 61 60 DK/NA 5 5 5 4 5 5 5
40. Do you support or oppose Bush's plan to send approximately 22,000 additional U.S. military forces to Iraq?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Support 25% 56% 6% 26% 29% 22% Oppose 69 36 90 70 67 72 DK/NA 5 7 4 4 4 6