Connecticut (CT) Poll * July 2, 2008 * Obama Tops McCain Among Most G - Quinnipiac University

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July 2, 2008 - Obama Tops McCain Among Most Groups In Connecticut, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Lieberman On The Ticket Doesn't Help Republicans

Word format Illinois Sen. Barack Obama crushes Arizona Sen. John McCain 56 - 35 percent among Connecticut likely voters, topping the Republican among every sub-group except Republican voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
Sen. Obama leads Sen. McCain 86 - 9 percent among Democrats and 52 - 36 percent among independent voters, while trailing 79 - 16 percent among Republicans, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. The Democrat is ahead;
53 - 40 percent among men; 59 - 31 percent among women; 53 - 40 percent among white voters; 90 - 2 percent among black voters; 68 - 26 percent among voters 18 to 34 years old; 54 - 38 percent among voters 35 to 54 years old; 53 - 38 percent among voters over 55.
Connecticut voters say 53 - 35 percent that Obama should not pick New York Sen. Hillary Clinton as his running mate. Democrats like the idea 51 - 42 percent, but Republicans oppose it 66 - 18 percent and independent voters balk 54 - 31 percent.
"At this stage of the campaign, Sen. Barack Obama is rolling over Sen. John McCain in Connecticut. Quinnipiac University also has conducted surveys in seven swing states in the last two weeks and Sen. Obama is ahead in every one" said Quinnipiac University Poll Director Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D.
"It still is very early in the campaign and Obama gets a bump from not having to run against Sen. Clinton any more, but for now, the Connecticut landslide looks like part of a trend."
"Obama is winning among the demographic groups where he seemed to be having problems when he faced Sen. Clinton: white voters, especially whites with less than a college degree," Dr Schwartz added.
If McCain picks Sen. Joseph Lieberman as his running mate, only 14 percent of Connecticut voters say they are more likely to vote Republican, while 32 percent are less likely and 52 percent say it won't affect their vote.
By a 61 - 23 percent margin, Connecticut voters have a favorable opinion of Obama, compared to 46 - 38 percent for McCain.
Because of his age, 23 percent of voters say they are less likely to vote for McCain, while 75 percent say it won't affect their vote. Obama's race won't affect their vote, 89 percent say.
The economy is the single most important issue in their vote, 55 percent say, while 21 percent cite the war in Iraq and 9 percent list healthcare.
Connecticut voters disapprove 78 - 19 percent of the job President George W. Bush is doing. Only 14 percent are "very satisfied" or "somewhat satisfied" with the way things are going in the U.S. today, while 85 percent are "somewhat dissatisfied" or "very dissatisfied."
"Is President Bush just an impossible burden for McCain? In Connecticut, it appears to be so," Dr. Schwartz said.
From June 26 - 29, Quinnipiac University surveyed 2,437 Connecticut likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research.
For more data -- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.
1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?(If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners".
LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Obama 56% 16% 86% 52% 53% 59% 53% 90% 61% McCain 35 79 9 36 40 31 40 2 30 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 2 1 1 1 - 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - - DK/NA 7 5 5 11 6 8 7 8 6 IMP ISSUE Q12 MdlSex Toll,Wndm War Econ Farfld Hrford Lchfld NewHvn NewLon Obama 74% 55% 54% 60% 58% 56% 54% McCain 18 36 38 31 35 35 39 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 2 1 - 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - DK/NA 7 8 6 8 7 9 6 WHITES.......................... AGE IN YRS....... NoColl College 18-34 35-54 55+ Degree Degree Men Wom Cath Obama 68% 54% 53% 50% 58% 50% 55% 47% McCain 26 38 38 42 36 45 36 44 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - DK/NA 5 7 8 7 5 4 9 7 PresVt2004.. BushJobAppQ5 Bush Kerry App Dis Obama 20% 86% 8% 70% McCain 73 8 86 21 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - DK/NA 6 5 6 7
TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED VOTERS............. Jul 2 Mar 27 May 10 Feb 19 2008 2008 2007 2007 Obama 52 52 46 43 McCain 32 35 38 38 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 3 3 2 DK/NA 13 9 12 15
1a.(If candidate choice given q1)Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Made up 76% 81% 82% 67% 75% 77% 75% 91% 81% Might change 23 19 17 32 24 22 24 9 18 DK/NA 1 - 1 2 1 1 1 - 1 CAND CHOICEQ1. Tot Obama McCain Made up 76% 78% 73% Might change 23 21 26 DK/NA 1 1 1
5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Approve 19% 50% 3% 17% 23% 16% 22% 1% 17% Disapprove 78 45 95 79 75 80 75 98 81 DK/NA 3 5 2 4 2 4 3 1 2
10. Is your opinion of -- Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Favorable 61% 32% 83% 58% 59% 63% 58% 91% 64% Unfavorable 23 51 7 23 27 20 26 4 19 Hvn't hrd enough 14 15 9 18 12 16 15 2 14 REFUSED 2 2 1 2 2 2 1 2 2
11. Is your opinion of -- John McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Favorable 46% 79% 23% 48% 51% 40% 50% 10% 41% Unfavorable 38 11 60 34 35 41 35 62 42 Hvn't hrd enough 15 9 15 17 12 18 13 26 15 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1
12. Which of the following will be the single most important issue in your vote in the election for President this year? (READ OPTIONS)
LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Terrorism 7% 16% 1% 6% 8% 6% 7% 1% 6% The war in Iraq 21 13 27 20 19 23 22 18 16 The economy 55 56 55 55 57 54 54 59 63 Illegal immigration 3 4 1 5 4 2 3 - 3 Health care 9 5 11 10 8 10 8 14 9 SOMETHING ELSE (VOL) 3 4 3 2 3 3 3 2 3 DK/NA 2 2 2 2 1 3 2 6 2
13. If elected, John McCain would be the first person to become President at age 72. Does that make you more likely to vote for McCain, less likely to vote for McCain, or doesn't it make a difference?
LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds More likely 1% 3% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% Less likely 23 10 35 20 21 26 21 45 23 Doesn't make diff 75 86 64 78 77 72 77 53 76 DK/NA 1 - 1 1 - 1 - - -
14. If elected, Barack Obama would be the first African-American President. Does that make you more likely to vote for Obama, less likely to vote for Obama, or doesn't it make a difference?
LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds More likely 7% 3% 11% 4% 6% 7% 5% 25% 6% Less likely 3 7 1 3 4 3 4 - 2 Doesn't make diff 89 89 86 92 89 89 91 75 93 DK/NA 1 1 1 - 1 - 1 - -
15. Would you like Barack Obama to pick Hillary Clinton to be his vice-presidential running mate or not?
LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Yes 35% 18% 51% 31% 26% 42% 32% 48% 41% No 53 66 42 54 60 46 55 39 46 DK/NA 12 16 7 15 14 11 13 13 13
16. If Barack Obama chooses Hillary Clinton to be his vice-presidential running mate, would that make you more likely to vote for Obama, less likely to vote for Obama, or doesn't it make a difference?
LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds More likely 18% 7% 26% 17% 12% 23% 17% 20% 22% Less likely 25 47 9 28 30 20 26 8 19 Doesn't make diff 55 45 64 52 56 55 55 70 57 DK/NA 2 2 1 3 2 2 2 2 1
17. If John McCain chooses Joe Lieberman to be his vice-presidential running mate, would that make you more likely to vote for McCain, less likely to vote for McCain, or doesn't it make a difference?
LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds More likely 14% 24% 7% 16% 15% 14% 15% 3% 11% Less likely 32 15 42 33 33 32 31 44 33 Doesn't make diff 52 59 50 50 51 54 53 52 55 DK/NA 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
18. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in the nation today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied or very dissatisfied?
LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Very satisfied 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% - Smwht satisfied 13 29 6 11 15 12 14 6 12 Smwht dissatisfied 37 44 32 40 37 37 39 34 34 Very dissatisfied 48 25 61 48 47 49 46 58 53 DK/NA - - 1 - - 1 - - 1
19. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?
LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Right thing 28% 63% 9% 25% 33% 24% 31% 5% 25% Wrong thing 67 31 88 69 63 70 65 94 69 DK/NA 5 6 3 6 4 5 5 1 6
20. Regardless of how you intend to vote, what would you prefer the next president do about the war in Iraq - Begin immediately a withdrawal of American troops with a fixed date to have them all out within 18 months OR Keep troops in Iraq until the situation is more stable and then begin to withdraw them without a fixed date for full withdrawal?
LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Immediate withdrawal/ fixed date 47% 23% 67% 43% 41% 53% 44% 75% 52% Keep troops/without a fixed date 48 74 28 52 54 43 51 19 43 DK/NA 5 3 5 5 5 5 5 6 5