Connecticut (CT) Poll * November 12, 2009 * Dems Fade In Ohio Senate Race, - Quinnipiac University

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November 12, 2009 - Dems Fade In Ohio Senate Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Obama Gets Negative Score In Key Swing State

Word format For the first time, Republican Rob Portman is inching ahead of the two Democrats in the 2010 race for Ohio's U.S. Senate seat, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Also for the first time, Ohio voters disapprove 50 - 45 percent of the job President Barack Obama is doing, down from his 53 - 42 percent approval September 16 and 49 - 44 percent approval July 7.
In still another first, voters are split 40 - 40 percent on who is doing a better job handling health care, the President or Congressional Republicans, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh- pe-ack) University survey finds. In a September 16 survey on the same question, Obama was on top 49 - 28 percent.
Ohio voters disapprove 53 - 42 percent of the way the President is handling the economy and disapprove 57 - 36 percent of the way he is handling health care. In September, they approved of his handling of the economy 48 - 46 percent and split on his handling of health care 44 - 45 percent.
"The Democratic wave that swept through Ohio in 2006 and 2008 may be cresting. The Democratic lead in the Governor's and Senate races has evaporated and for the first time President Barack Obama is under water in the most important swing state in the country," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"Ohio voters are not happy with the President's handling of health care and the economy. The fact that they now are split whether he or the Republicans in Congress are better able to handle health care should be a very worrisome number at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. since the GOP is still pretty much a four-letter word in most of America."
Independent voters, often the group that decides Ohio elections, disapprove 49 - 45 percent of the overall job Obama is doing and disapprove 54 - 39 percent of his handling of the economy. They disapprove 62 - 34 percent, almost 2-1, of his handling of health care.
"In July, when the President's job approval began falling nationally from the high 50s and low 60s into the low 50s, Ohio was the first place it showed up in the polls," said Brown.
Portman, a former Congressman running for the U.S. Senate in 2010, has small leads over two Democrats, topping Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner 38 - 34 percent and Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher 39 - 36 percent. In the battle for the Democratic Senate nomination, Fisher gets 24 percent to Brunner's 22 percent, with 51 percent undecided. Portman leads car dealer Tom Ganley 26 - 7 percent in a GOP primary with 64 percent undecided.
"None of the Senate candidates are very well known, but what is significant is that until now Democrats were winning all the Senate matchups. Clearly there is an at least temporary swing toward the GOP in Ohio. Whether it continues is anyone's guess," said Brown.
Ohio voters oppose Obama's health care plan 55 - 36 percent, with independents against it 57 - 33 percent. By a 61 - 35 percent margin, voters don't think Congress should approve a health care overhaul if it only gets Democratic votes.
But Ohio voters support 53 - 40 percent giving people the option of a government health insurance plan. Independent voters support this public option 55 - 38 percent.
Afghanistan
The United States is doing the right thing fighting in Afghanistan, Ohio voters say 48 - 43 percent. Voters support 51 - 40 percent the recommendations of the top U.S. commanders in Afghanistan that 40,000 more U.S. troops should be sent.
"But 55 percent of Ohioans say they are only willing to see large numbers of American troops in Afghanistan for two years or less, which is hardly a mandate for the type of long-term commitment that the Pentagon has said will be needed for victory," said Brown.
From November 5 - 9, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,123 Ohio voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points. The survey includes 406 Republicans and 394 Democrats, each with a margin of error of +/- 4.9 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Florida, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.
1. (If registered Republican) If the 2010 Republican primary for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Rob Portman and Tom Ganley, for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED REPS.. Tot Men Wom Portman 26% 29% 24% Ganley 7 6 8 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 2 DK/NA 64 62 65
TREND: (If registered Republican) If the 2010 Republican primary for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Rob Portman and Tom Ganley, for whom would you vote? (*Someone Else & Wouldn't Vote volunteered options not in option list / na = not asked)
REGISTERED REPUBLICANS....................... Nov 12 Sep 16 Jul 7 May 6 Mar 18 Feb 4 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009* Portman 26 27 33 29 31 33 Ganley 7 9 10 8 na na Taylor na na na 8 14 11 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 2 1 1 - DK/NA 64 61 55 54 52 56
2. (If registered Democrat) If the 2010 Democratic primary for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Lee Fisher and Jennifer Brunner, for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED DEMS.. Tot Men Wom Fisher 24% 29% 20% Brunner 22 23 22 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 3 - DK/NA 51 43 57
TREND: (If registered Democrat) If the 2010 Democratic primary for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Lee Fisher and Jennifer Brunner, for whom would you vote? (*Someone Else & Wouldn't Vote volunteered options not in option list / na = not asked)
REGISTERED DEMOCRATS......................... Nov 12 Sep 16 Jul 7 May 6 Mar 18 Feb 4 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009* Fisher 24 26 24 20 18 18 Brunner 22 17 21 16 14 16 Yates na na na 4 6 na Ryan na na na na 12 14 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 2 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 3 1 2 - DK/NA 51 55 51 59 46 53
4. If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Lee Fisher the Democrat and Rob Portman the Republican, for whom would you vote?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Fisher 36% 3% 70% 27% 33% 38% 29% Portman 39 76 10 38 44 34 48 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 1 - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 - 2 1 1 1 DK/NA 24 20 19 33 22 26 21 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Fisher 31% 41% 48% 44% 19% 33% Portman 46 29 18 38 62 45 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - - 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 - - - - DK/NA 19 28 34 17 18 22
TREND: If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Lee Fisher the Democrat and Rob Portman the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Nov 12 Sep 16 Jul 7 May 6 Mar 18 Feb 4 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 Fisher 36 42 37 42 41 42 Portman 39 31 33 31 33 27 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 2 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 2 - 2 1 DK/NA 24 26 26 26 24 29
5. If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Lee Fisher the Democrat and Tom Ganley the Republican, for whom would you vote?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Fisher 38% 6% 72% 28% 38% 38% 30% Ganley 34 70 7 32 37 31 43 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 1 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 - 3 1 2 1 DK/NA 27 22 21 36 24 30 26 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Fisher 33% 40% 47% 53% 28% 38% Ganley 43 30 25 29 33 39 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 - - 1 - DK/NA 21 27 28 18 38 23
TREND: If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Lee Fisher the Democrat and Tom Ganley the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Nov 12 Sep 16 Jul 7 2009 2009 2009 Fisher 38 41 36 Ganley 34 29 30 SMONE ELSE(VOL - 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 2 DK/NA 27 27 31
6. If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Jennifer Brunner the Democrat and Tom Ganley the Republican, for whom would you vote?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Brunner 35% 3% 69% 31% 31% 39% 31% Ganley 32 68 4 29 39 26 40 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 1 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 2 1 2 1 - DK/NA 30 28 25 38 27 33 28 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Brunner 31% 35% 45% 53% 29% 36% Ganley 41 29 18 23 33 42 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - - 2 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 - 3 4 - DK/NA 26 34 37 22 33 22
TREND: If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Jennifer Brunner the Democrat and Tom Ganley the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Nov 12 Sep 16 Jul 7 2009 2009 2009 Brunner 35 39 35 Ganley 32 31 31 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 2 DK/NA 30 27 31
7. If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Jennifer Brunner the Democrat and Rob Portman the Republican, for whom would you vote?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Brunner 34% 4% 65% 30% 31% 37% 28% Portman 38 74 10 36 43 34 48 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 1 - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 1 - DK/NA 27 21 24 33 26 28 24 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Brunner 33% 34% 46% 45% 23% 36% Portman 44 31 17 33 57 47 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 - 2 - - DK/NA 22 34 36 21 19 17
TREND: If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Jennifer Brunner the Democrat and Rob Portman the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Nov 12 Sep 16 Jul 7 May 6 Mar 18 Feb 4 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 Brunner 34 39 35 40 39 38 Portman 38 34 34 32 34 28 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 1 - 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 - 2 1 DK/NA 27 25 29 27 25 31
10. Is your opinion of - Lee Fisher favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 25% 9% 42% 22% 28% 22% 16% Unfavorable 15 31 4 15 21 10 17 Hvn't hrd enough 58 58 52 61 50 66 65 REFUSED 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Favorable 24% 27% 21% 35% 24% 18% Unfavorable 21 15 7 18 12 14 Hvn't hrd enough 54 55 71 46 63 65 REFUSED 1 2 - 1 1 3
TREND: Is your opinion of - Lee Fisher favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Nov 12 Sep 16 Jul 7 May 6 Mar 18 Feb 4 Dec 10 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2008 Favorable 25 33 29 37 32 33 23 Unfavorable 15 13 17 13 13 10 10 Hvn't hrd enough 58 54 53 48 54 55 66 REFUSED 2 1 1 1 1 2 1
11. Is your opinion of - Jennifer Brunner favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 20% 4% 36% 20% 22% 19% 13% Unfavorable 18 39 5 14 21 15 19 Hvn't hrd enough 61 57 57 64 56 65 67 REFUSED 1 - 2 2 2 1 1 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Favorable 24% 23% 15% 34% 13% 16% Unfavorable 28 16 9 13 19 15 Hvn't hrd enough 47 61 71 53 65 69 REFUSED 1 1 5 - 3 -
TREND: Is your opinion of - Jennifer Brunner favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
Nov 12 Sep 16 Jul 7 May 6 Mar 18 Feb 4 Dec 10 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2008 Favorable 20 27 27 31 31 34 26 Unfavorable 18 14 16 12 14 10 24 Hvn't hrd enough 61 58 56 55 55 55 49 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
12. Is your opinion of - Rob Portman favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 22% 38% 11% 21% 25% 19% 24% Unfavorable 7 2 12 7 7 7 4 Hvn't hrd enough 70 60 75 71 67 73 71 REFUSED 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Favorable 22% 11% 6% 21% 59% 22% Unfavorable 7 5 7 18 12 3 Hvn't hrd enough 69 83 87 60 27 74 REFUSED 2 1 - - 2 1
TREND: Is your opinion of - Rob Portman favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Nov 12 Sep 16 Jul 7 May 6 Mar 18 Feb 4 Dec 10 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2008 Favorable 22 20 21 22 25 21 12 Unfavorable 7 7 6 9 7 6 7 Hvn't hrd enough 70 72 72 68 67 72 80 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
13. Is your opinion of - Tom Ganley favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 12% 18% 4% 13% 16% 8% 12% Unfavorable 5 1 9 5 7 3 2 Hvn't hrd enough 82 80 85 82 76 88 85 REFUSED 1 1 2 - 2 1 1 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Favorable 9% 18% 2% 7% 9% 9% Unfavorable 3 6 6 14 - 3 Hvn't hrd enough 87 74 92 79 90 87 REFUSED - 2 - - 1 1
TREND: Is your opinion of - Tom Ganley favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Nov 12 Sep 16 Jul 7 May 6 2009 2009 2009 2009 Favorable 12 15 12 6 Unfavorable 5 5 4 4 Hvn't hrd enough 82 80 83 89 REFUSED 1 - 1 1
18. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Lee Fisher is handling his job as Ohio's lieutenant governor?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 39% 17% 54% 42% 39% 39% 33% Disapprove 23 43 8 24 31 17 25 DK/NA 37 40 38 34 30 44 42 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Approve 40% 40% 39% 52% 35% 37% Disapprove 29 21 15 24 23 29 DK/NA 31 39 46 24 42 34
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Lee Fisher is handling his job as Ohio's lieutenant governor?
Nov 12 Sep 16 Jul 7 May 6 2009 2009 2009 2009 Approve 39 44 39 49 Disapprove 23 21 24 17 DK/NA 37 35 38 33
19. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jennifer Brunner is handling her job as Ohio's Secretary of State?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 38% 13% 54% 41% 40% 36% 32% Disapprove 25 48 8 23 29 23 28 DK/NA 37 38 38 35 31 42 41 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Approve 35% 39% 41% 52% 31% 40% Disapprove 38 22 15 20 25 28 DK/NA 27 39 44 28 44 32
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jennifer Brunner is handling her job as Ohio's Secretary of State? (*Low also 38% Jul 2009, Aug 2008 & Jun 2008)
APPROVE...... High Low Nov 12 Sep 16 Jul 7 May 6 Mar 18 May 6 Nov 12 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009* Approve 38 41 38 45 41 45 38 Disapprove 25 23 25 20 19 20 25 DK/NA 37 36 37 34 39 34 37
20. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 45% 8% 80% 45% 42% 49% 31% Disapprove 50 89 17 49 54 46 61 DK/NA 5 3 4 6 4 5 8
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
Nov 12 Sep 16 Jul 7 May 6 Mar 18 Feb 6 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 Approve 45 53 49 62 57 67 Disapprove 50 42 44 31 33 16 DK/NA 5 5 8 7 11 17
24. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling the economy?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 42% 10% 75% 39% 39% 45% 29% Disapprove 53 87 19 54 57 49 65 DK/NA 5 3 6 6 4 6 6
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling the economy?
Nov 12 Sep 16 Jul 7 May 6 Mar 18 Feb 6 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 Approve 42 48 46 57 53 58 Disapprove 53 46 48 36 36 21 DK/NA 5 6 6 7 11 21
28. Do you think the U.S. is doing the right thing by fighting the war in Afghanistan now, or should the U.S. not be involved in Afghanistan now?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Right thing 48% 71% 32% 46% 58% 39% 55% Shouldn't be inv 43 22 61 43 37 49 34 DK/NA 9 7 6 11 5 12 12
29. General Stanley McChrystal, the top U.S. commander in Afghanistan, has asked President Obama to send 40,000 additional combat troops. Should Obama send the troops or not?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Yes 51% 77% 30% 50% 59% 44% 58% No 40 18 60 39 36 44 34 DK/NA 8 5 10 11 5 12 8
30. Do you think President Obama should replace McChrystal or not?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Yes 11% 4% 15% 12% 6% 15% 12% No 65 81 51 67 76 56 66 DK/NA 24 15 33 21 17 29 22
31. How much longer would you be willing to have large numbers of U.S. troops remain in Afghanistan - less than a year, one to two years, two to five years, five to ten years, or as long as it takes?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Less than 1 year 33% 18% 47% 32% 24% 41% 29% 1 to 2 years 22 15 26 25 23 21 22 2 to 5 years 9 14 7 9 11 8 10 5 to 10 years 1 2 - 1 2 - 1 As long as it takes 30 47 17 28 37 23 32 DK/NA 5 4 3 5 4 6 5
32. Do you think the United States is heading for the same kind of involvement in Afghanistan as it had in the Vietnam War, or do you think the United States will avoid that kind of involvement this time?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Yes/Same as Vietnam 35% 26% 39% 36% 38% 33% 33% No/Will avoid that 50 54 49 50 50 50 48 DK/NA 15 20 11 14 12 17 19
33. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling - health care?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 36% 4% 69% 34% 32% 39% 24% Disapprove 57 92 22 62 62 54 72 DK/NA 6 4 9 4 6 7 4
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling - health care?
Nov 12 Sep 16 2009 2009 Approve 36 44 Disapprove 57 45 DK/NA 6 10
34. Do you support or oppose President Obama's health care reform plan?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Support 36% 5% 69% 33% 32% 39% 24% Oppose 55 91 19 57 59 52 69 DK/NA 9 4 12 10 9 9 8
TREND: Do you support or oppose President Obama's health care reform plan?
Nov 12 Sep 16 2009 2009 Support 36 44 Oppose 55 44 DK/NA 9 12
35. Who do you trust to do a better job handling health care - President Obama or the Republicans in Congress?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl President Obama 40% 3% 80% 36% 37% 42% 26% Reps in Congress 40 78 10 35 43 36 51 DK/NA 21 18 11 30 19 22 23
TREND: Who do you trust to do a better job handling health care - President Obama or the Republicans in Congress?
Nov 12 Sep 16 2009 2009 President Obama 40 49 Reps in Congress 40 28 DK/NA 21 23
36. Do you support or oppose giving people the option of being covered by a government health insurance plan that would compete with private plans?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Support 53% 24% 81% 55% 49% 58% 46% Oppose 40 71 15 38 45 35 47 DK/NA 7 5 4 6 6 7 7
TREND: Do you support or oppose giving people the option of being covered by a government health insurance plan that would compete with private plans?
Nov 12 Sep 16 2009 2009 Support 53 57 Oppose 40 35 DK/NA 7 9
37. Do you agree or disagree with the following: Congress should approve a health care overhaul plan even if only Democrats support it.
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Agree 35% 6% 61% 36% 36% 34% 23% Disagree 61 91 32 61 60 61 73 DK/NA 4 3 7 4 4 4 4
38. Do you think Republicans in Congress are playing a constructive role in improving a health care reform bill or do you think they just want President Obama to fail?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Playing const role 38% 65% 14% 39% 40% 36% 47% Want Obama to fail 45 15 74 43 44 45 33 DK/NA 18 21 12 18 16 19 20
TREND: Do you think Republicans in Congress are playing a constructive role in improving a health care reform bill or do you think they just want President Obama to fail?
Nov 12 Sep 16 2009 2009 Playing const role 38 33 Want Obama to fail 45 50 DK/NA 18 17