Connecticut (CT) Poll * September 30, 2004 * Kerry Up By 6 Points In Connec - Quinnipiac University

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September 30, 2004 - Kerry Up By 6 Points In Connecticut, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters Say Debates Are Important

Democratic challenger John Kerry tops President George W. Bush 50 - 44 percent among Connecticut likely voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Independent candidate Ralph Nader gets 2 percent in this tally which includes undecided voters leaning toward a candidate.
Sen. Kerry has a 47 - 38 percent lead over President Bush, with 4 percent for Nader, among Connecticut registered voters. This compares to a 45 - 38 percent Kerry lead in an August 19 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.
Connecticut voters disapprove 53 - 42 percent of the job Bush is doing. Voters say 56 - 39 percent going to war in Iraq was the wrong thing to do, one of the strongest anti- war sentiments in any poll conducted by Quinnipiac University.
Looking at presidential qualities, voters say:
56 - 35 percent that Bush acts more like a leader than Kerry; 57 - 32 percent that Bush does a better job explaining what he will do as president.
"The last time a Democratic challenger faced a sitting Republican President was 1992, when Bill Clinton beat George H.W. Bush in Connecticut by 6 points. Given the history, one could say that Sen. Kerry is on track," said Quinnipiac University Poll Director Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D.
"The race in Connecticut is all about Bush. Only 33 percent of Kerry supporters are voting mainly for the Democrat, while 63 percent are voting against Bush."
Offered four choices, 30 percent of Connecticut voters say the war in Iraq is most important in deciding how they will vote, with 26 percent who list the economy, 24 percent who list terrorism and 15 percent who list health care.
Looking at how the candidates will handle these issues:
Voters split 45 - 45 percent on who would do a better job in Iraq; Voters say 50 - 39 percent that Kerry will do a better job on the economy; Voters say 52 - 39 percent that Bush will do a better job on terrorism; Voters say 58 - 32 percent that Kerry will do a better job on health care.
A total of 91 percent of Connecticut voters are "very likely" or "somewhat likely" to watch the presidential debates, as 26 percent say the debates are "very important" in deciding how they will vote, with 34 percent who say "somewhat important," 18 percent who say "not too important" and 21 percent who say "not important at all." Senate Race
Democratic U.S. Sen. Christopher Dodd leads Republican challenger Jack Orchulli 69 - 24 percent among likely voters, including leaners.
Sen. Dodd has a 64 - 21 percent job approval rating and a 52 - 14 percent favorability rating, with 22 percent mixed and 11 percent who say they haven't heard enough to form an opinion. For Orchulli, 76 percent of Connecticut voters say they haven't heard enough to form an opinion.
Sen. Joseph Lieberman gets a 66 - 22 percent job approval rating and Gov. Jodi Rell has a 77 - 4 percent approval.
"While Connecticut is Kerry/Dodd country, voters think very highly of their new Republican Governor," Dr. Schwartz said.
From September 26 - 28, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,044 Connecticut registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points. The survey included 723 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts public opinion surveys in Connecticut, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Florida and the nation as a public service and for research.
For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jodi Rell is handling her job as Governor?
App Dis DK/NA Sep 30, 2004 77 4 20 Aug 19, 2004 73 4 24
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joseph Lieberman is handling his job as United States Senator?
App Dis DK/NA Sep 30, 2004 66 22 12 Aug 19, 2004 65 21 13 Jun 30, 2004 66 22 12 Jun 4, 2004 63 24 14 Nov 20, 2003 52 36 12 Oct 10, 2003 54 34 12 Jul 31, 2003 51 33 17 May 1, 2003 53 25 22 Mar 14, 2003 60 28 12 Oct 2, 2002 58 29 13 Aug 1, 2002 64 26 10 Jul 31, 2002 64 26 10 May 23, 2002 65 23 12 Feb 14, 2002 64 21 15 Dec 19, 2001 71 19 10 Apr 19, 2001 71 22 7 Feb 21, 2001 71 20 9 Sep 21, 2000 80 14 6 Jul 20, 2000 74 15 11 Jun 21, 2000 72 14 14 Apr 13, 2000 71 14 14 Feb 18, 2000 73 14 13 Oct 14, 1999 73 16 11 Jun 24, 1999 71 19 10 May 5, 1999 67 19 14 Oct 22, 1998 70 16 14 Oct 2, 1998 71 17 12 Jun 25, 1998 68 16 16 Apr 2, 1998 69 16 15 Feb 19, 1998 69 16 15 Nov 19, 1997 69 17 13 Oct 9, 1997 71 18 11 Jul 15, 1997 72 14 15 Feb 25, 1997 66 18 16 Jul 3, 1996 68 18 14 Mar 27, 1996 66 17 17 Apr 20, 1995 63 19 18 Aug 22, 1994 55 23 22 Jul 19, 1994 58 16 26
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Christopher Dodd is handling his job as United States Senator?
App Dis DK/NA Sep 30, 2004 64 21 14 Aug 19, 2004 60 22 18 Jun 30, 2004 66 17 18 Jun 4, 2004 59 22 19 Nov 20, 2003 60 22 17 Oct 10, 2003 62 20 18 Jul 31, 2003 58 20 22 May 1, 2003 52 16 31 Mar 14, 2003 57 22 21 Oct 2, 2002 58 21 21 Aug 1, 2002 61 20 19 Jul 31, 2002 61 20 19 May 23, 2002 61 18 21 Feb 14, 2002 52 17 31 Dec 19, 2001 63 20 18 Apr 19, 2001 71 16 13 Feb 21, 2001 68 15 16 Sep 21, 2000 66 20 14 Jul 20, 2000 64 24 12 Jun 21, 2000 64 21 14 Apr 13, 2000 63 22 15 Feb 18, 2000 64 21 16 Oct 14, 1999 70 22 8 Jun 24, 1999 65 25 10 May 5, 1999 61 25 14 Nov 2, 1998 (LV) 62 31 7 Oct 22, 1998 62 27 11 Oct 2, 1998 60 27 12 Jun 25, 1998 61 27 11 Apr 2, 1998 60 27 13 Feb 19, 1998 59 30 11 Nov 19, 1997 57 31 12 Oct 9, 1997 56 34 10 Jul 15, 1997 62 27 12 Feb 25, 1997 54 30 16 Jul 3, 1996 56 26 18 Mar 27, 1996 58 30 13 Apr 20, 1995 60 26 15 Aug 22, 1994 56 27 17
TREND: Is your opinion of Jodi Rell favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about her? (* ...Lieutenant Governor Jodi Rell will be taking over as Governor. Is your opinion...?) (** Is your opinion of Lieutenant Governor Jodi Rell ...?)
Hvn't Fav UnFav Mixed heard REFUSED Sep 30, 2004 62 2 13 22 1 Aug 19, 2004 60 2 12 25 1 Jun 30, 2004 * 34 1 6 59 1 Jan 7, 2004 20 2 7 70 1 Apr 19, 2001 31 3 12 53 1
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
App Dis DK/NA Sep 30, 2004 42 53 4 Aug 19, 2004 42 52 6 Jun 30, 2004 37 58 5 Jun 4, 2004 39 55 5 Nov 20, 2003 45 50 5 Oct 10, 2003 43 53 4 Jul 31, 2003 54 41 5 May 1, 2003 64 29 7 Mar 14, 2003 49 45 6 Oct 2, 2002 61 32 7 Jul 31, 2002 59 34 7 May 23, 2002 70 24 6 Feb 14, 2002 79 16 6 Dec 19, 2001 87 10 2 Apr 19, 2001 55 33 12 Feb 21, 2001 49 30 21
TREND: If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat, George W. Bush the Republican and Ralph Nader the Independent, for whom would you vote?
JK GWB RN SmnEls Wld'tVt DK/NA Sep 30, 2004 47 38 4 - 1 10 Aug 19, 2004 45 38 6 1 2 8 Jun 30, 2004 50 32 9 1 1 7 Jun 4, 2004 46 36 8 1 2 7
TREND: Is your opinion of George W. Bush favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Hvn't Fav UnFav Mixed heard REFUSED Sep 30, 2004 36 45 17 1 1 Aug 19, 2004 35 42 20 2 1 Jun 6, 2004 33 42 22 2 1
TREND: Is your opinion of John Kerry favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Hvn't Fav UnFav Mixed heard REFUSED Sep 30, 2004 31 30 31 7 1 Aug 19, 2004 37 26 29 8 1 Jun 6, 2004 31 24 32 12 1
TREND: Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?
Right Wrong DK/NA Sep 30, 2004 39 56 5 Aug 19, 2004 43 49 8 Jun 4, 2004 42 52 6
1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jodi Rell is handling her job as Governor?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veterans Approve 77% 81% 72% 80% 77% 76% 81% Disapprove 4 2 6 2 4 3 2 DK/NA 20 17 21 18 19 21 17
2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veterans Approve 42% 82% 14% 40% 45% 40% 52% Disapprove 53 15 84 53 51 55 45 DK/NA 4 3 2 7 4 5 3
3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joseph Lieberman is handling his job as United States Senator?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veterans Approve 66% 67% 70% 63% 63% 68% 63% Disapprove 22 25 16 26 27 18 29 DK/NA 12 8 14 12 10 13 8
4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Christopher Dodd is handling his job as United States Senator?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veterans Approve 64% 54% 80% 62% 60% 68% 60% Disapprove 21 34 10 21 27 17 29 DK/NA 14 12 10 18 14 15 11
5. How much attention have you been paying to the election campaign for President -- a lot, some, only a little, or none at all?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veterans A lot 57% 61% 59% 52% 65% 50% 71% Some 31 30 27 35 25 35 22 Only a little 10 5 11 11 8 12 6 None at all 3 4 2 2 2 3 1 DK/NA - - - - - - -
6. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat, George W. Bush the Republican, and Ralph Nader the Independent for whom would you vote? (* Number of respondents is 75 or less in the Litchfield subgroup. Additional caution should be taken when interpreting the findings of this subgroup because of the larger margin of error.)
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veterans Kerry 47% 9% 79% 48% 42% 51% 39% Bush 38 79 11 35 42 35 47 Nader 4 2 4 5 5 3 3 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - - 1 - 1 1 DK/NA 10 10 6 10 10 10 11 * MdlSex Toll,Wndm Tot Fairfld Hrtford Ltchfld NewHvn NewLon Kerry 47% 49% 51% 38% 45% 44% Bush 38 36 38 47 36 43 Nader 4 4 6 3 4 2 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 - 2 1 - DK/NA 10 9 5 9 13 10 No Coll Coll PRES VOTE 2000 Degree Degree Lib Mod Con Gore Bush Kerry 43% 55% 72% 49% 20% 82% 11% Bush 40 34 14 37 64 7 76 Nader 4 4 4 4 4 2 1 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 DK/NA 11 8 8 9 10 8 11 Age in years............... Annual hshold income......... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ <30 30-50 50-100 >100K Kerry 55% 45% 46% 45% 46% 46% 47% 52% Bush 31 41 41 38 34 43 43 36 Nader 10 3 3 1 3 3 5 3 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - - - - 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - 2 1 2 1 - - DK/NA 2 10 9 15 16 6 5 9 Important issue q19........... Going to war q26 Iraq Econ Ter HlthCr Right Wrong Kerry 61% 54% 21% 49% 12% 73% Bush 24 30 71 28 78 10 Nader 5 4 2 5 3 5 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - - - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - - 2 - 1 DK/NA 8 11 6 15 8 9
6. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat, George W. Bush the Republican, and Ralph Nader the Independent for whom would you vote?
Likely Voters Kerry 49% Bush 42 Nader 2 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - DK/NA 8
6. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat, George W. Bush the Republican, and Ralph Nader the Independent for whom would you vote? (If undecided q6) As of today, do you lean more to Kerry, Bush, or Nader? This table includes 'Leaners'
Likely plus Leaners Kerry 50% Bush 44 Nader 2 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - DK/NA 4
9. (If Nader q6) What if Ralph Nader were not running? If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote? This table includes 'Leaners'. Recalculated Bush vs Kerry matchup without Nader among likely voters.
Likely plus Leaners Kerry 51% Bush 44 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - WLDN'T VOTE - DK/NA 4
7. (If candidate choice q6) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
Kerry Bush Vtr q6 Vtr q6 Made up 84% 87% Might change 15 13 DK/NA 1 1
8a. (If 'Kerry' q6) Is your vote more for Kerry or more against Bush?
Kerry Vtr q6 For Kerry 33% Against Bush 63 DK/NA 4
8b. (If 'Bush' q6) Is your vote more for Bush or more against Kerry?
Bush Vtr q6 For Bush 75% Against Kerry 22 DK/NA 2
10. How much attention have you been paying to the election campaign for United States Senator from Connecticut - a lot, some, only a little, or none at all?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veterans A lot 13% 11% 17% 11% 13% 13% 16% Some 38 37 42 38 34 42 40 Only a little 36 41 31 36 39 33 35 None at all 13 12 10 15 14 12 9 DK/NA - - - - - - -
11. If the election for senator were being held today, and the candidates were Christopher Dodd the Democrat and Jack Orchulli the Republican for whom would you vote? (* Number of respondents is 75 or less in the Litchfield subgroup. Additional caution should be taken when interpreting the findings of this subgroup because of the larger margin of error.)
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veterans Dodd 66% 44% 90% 65% 62% 70% 53% Orchulli 21 46 3 21 26 18 35 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - - 1 1 1 1 DK/NA 11 10 7 13 11 12 11 * MdlSex Toll,Wndm Tot Fairfld Hrtford Ltchfld NewHvn NewLon Dodd 66% 67% 70% 63% 67% 60% Orchulli 21 18 21 18 23 24 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 - 7 1 1 DK/NA 11 13 9 10 9 16
11. If the election for senator were being held today, and the candidates were Christopher Dodd the Democrat and Jack Orchulli the Republican for whom would you vote?
Likely Voters Dodd 66% Orchulli 23 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - DK/NA 10
11. If the election for senator were being held today, and the candidates were Christopher Dodd the Democrat and Jack Orchulli the Republican for whom would you vote? (If undecided q11) As of today, do you lean more to Dodd or Orchulli? This table includes 'Leaners'.
Likely plus Leaners Dodd 69% Orchulli 24 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - DK/NA 7
12. Is your opinion of George W. Bush favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veterans Favorable 36% 76% 12% 29% 39% 33% 48% Unfavorable 45 10 74 48 44 47 38 Mixed 17 12 13 21 17 18 14 Hvn't hrd enough 1 1 - 2 - 2 - REFUSED 1 - 1 1 1 1 1
13. Is your opinion of John Kerry favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veterans Favorable 31% 8% 58% 28% 29% 33% 29% Unfavorable 30 61 8 28 33 27 40 Mixed 31 23 29 38 30 32 25 Hvn't hrd enough 7 8 4 6 8 7 6 REFUSED 1 - - 1 - 1 -
14. Is your opinion of Ralph Nader favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veterans Favorable 16% 15% 14% 18% 19% 13% 23% Unfavorable 32 30 40 30 36 28 43 Mixed 23 25 17 26 23 24 21 Hvn't hrd enough 28 29 29 25 21 34 11 REFUSED 1 1 - 2 1 1 2
15. Is your opinion of Christopher Dodd favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veterans Favorable 52% 39% 73% 48% 52% 53% 54% Unfavorable 14 25 3 15 18 10 28 Mixed 22 25 13 26 19 24 14 Hvn't hrd enough 11 10 10 10 10 12 4 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 1 -
16. Is your opinion of Jack Orchulli favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veterans Favorable 6% 15% 2% 5% 7% 6% 10% Unfavorable 6 2 10 5 5 6 3 Mixed 11 10 7 14 11 11 13 Hvn't hrd enough 76 72 80 75 76 76 71 REFUSED 1 2 1 1 2 - 3
17. Is your opinion of Jodi Rell favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about her?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veterans Favorable 62% 70% 59% 62% 59% 65% 64% Unfavorable 2 1 1 4 3 1 1 Mixed 13 9 18 12 13 13 12 Hvn't hrd enough 22 18 21 21 23 21 20 REFUSED 1 2 1 1 2 1 2
18. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in the nation today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veterans Very satisfied 6% 14% 1% 5% 8% 4% 12% Smwht satisfied 35 58 17 36 39 32 36 Smwht dissatisfied 33 20 39 35 29 36 28 Very dissatisfied 25 6 42 24 24 26 24 DK/NA 1 1 - 1 1 1 -
19. If you had to choose, which of the following issues will be most important to your vote for president; the situation in Iraq, the economy, terrorism or health care?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veterans Iraq 30% 24% 32% 33% 27% 33% 28% Economy 26 24 29 26 30 23 26 Terrorism 24 36 16 25 27 22 28 Health care 15 11 19 13 11 18 14 DK/NA 4 5 3 3 5 3 4
20. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on health care, -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veterans Bush 32% 65% 9% 29% 34% 29% 40% Kerry 58 22 85 60 57 58 48 DK/NA 11 13 6 11 9 13 12
21. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on the economy, -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veterans Bush 39% 80% 12% 36% 43% 37% 46% Kerry 50 13 80 52 49 52 41 DK/NA 10 7 9 12 9 12 12
22. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on the situation in Iraq, -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veterans Bush 45% 84% 20% 42% 52% 40% 52% Kerry 45 12 68 48 43 46 41 DK/NA 10 5 12 10 6 14 6
23. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on terrorism, -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veterans Bush 52% 86% 24% 51% 58% 46% 58% Kerry 39 9 66 37 36 41 33 DK/NA 10 5 10 12 7 12 8
24. Regardless of how you intend to vote, which candidate would you say acts more like a leader -- John Kerry or George W. Bush?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veterans Kerry 35% 8% 61% 32% 30% 39% 26% Bush 56 90 30 56 62 50 65 DK/NA 9 2 9 12 8 10 9
25. Regardless of how you intend to vote, which candidate would you say has done a better job making it clear what he would do if he were elected president - John Kerry or George W. Bush?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veterans Kerry 32% 10% 54% 31% 28% 35% 27% Bush 57 86 34 57 63 52 63 DK/NA 11 4 12 12 9 13 10
26. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veterans Right thing 39% 72% 17% 37% 45% 34% 51% Wrong thing 56 23 79 58 52 59 44 DK/NA 5 5 4 5 3 6 5
27. Would you describe the state of the nation's economy these days as: Excellent, good, not so good, or poor?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veterans Excellent 1% 1% - 1% 1% 1% 1% Good 36 67 17 33 41 32 47 Not so good 45 24 60 46 42 48 35 Poor 18 7 22 20 16 19 17 DK/NA 1 1 - 1 - 1 -
28. How likely is it that you will watch the upcoming presidential debates between John Kerry and George W. Bush? Very likely, somewhat likely, or not likely?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veterans Very likely 66% 67% 70% 64% 66% 66% 68% Smwht likely 25 22 23 27 25 25 23 Not likely 8 10 7 8 8 9 9 DK/NA - - - - - - -
29. How important will the debates be to you in deciding how to vote for president - Very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not important at all?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veterans Very important 26% 16% 29% 28% 21% 30% 20% Somewhat 34 36 31 36 33 35 34 Not too 18 22 16 19 21 16 20 Not at all 21 25 24 16 24 19 26 DK/NA - - - 1 1 - 1