Connecticut (CT) Poll * October 20, 2006 * Lieberman Opens 17-Point Lead - Quinnipiac University

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October 20, 2006 - Lieberman Opens 17-Point Lead In Connecticut, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Dem Challenger Gains Slightly On Rell

Candidate debates this week did not help the two principal challengers in the Connecticut Senate race, as Sen. Joseph Lieberman now holds a 52 - 35 percent likely voter lead over Democratic candidate Ned Lamont, with 6 percent for Republican Alan Schlesinger and 7 percent undecided, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
This compares to a 49 - 39 percent Sen. Lieberman lead over Lamont, with 5 percent for Schlesinger in a September 28 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh- pe-ack) University.
In this latest survey, Lieberman leads Lamont 70 - 9 percent among likely Republican voters, with 18 percent for Schlesinger, and 58 - 32 - 5 percent among likely independent voters, while likely Democratic voters back Lamont 55 - 36 percent.
While 35 percent of Connecticut voters watched Monday's candidate debate, another 35 percent said they heard or read about the debate. Of those who watched the debate or read or heard about it, only 3 percent say they changed their mind about whom they would vote for as a result of the debate.
"Ned Lamont needed to score a knockout in the debates to catch Sen. Joseph Lieberman, but he apparently didn't lay a glove on him," said Quinnipiac University Poll Director Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D.
"Lamont's negatives are up and he has fallen farther behind in the matchup against Lieberman because of his drop among independent voters and men.
"Observers had speculated that Alan Schlesinger would benefit from the debate exposure and take Republican votes away from Lieberman," Dr. Schwartz added. "Instead, he took Republican votes away from Lamont."
Connecticut likely voters give Lieberman a 49 - 28 percent favorability rating, with 21 percent mixed.
Lamont gets a negative 29 - 36 percent favorability rating, with 21 percent mixed and 13 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion.
For Schlesinger, 65 percent don't know enough about him to form an opinion.
Among Lieberman supporters, 47 percent cite his experience as the main reason they are voting for him, with 9 percent citing his stand on the war in Iraq.
For Lamont supporters, 48 percent cite his position on Iraq as the main reason for their choice, with 15 percent each citing other issues or his political party.
Governor's Race
Republican incumbent Gov. Jodi Rell leads Democratic challenger John DeStefano 59 - 33 percent among likely voters, compared to 63 - 30 percent September 28. In this latest survey, 7 percent are undecided and 15 percent of those who name a candidate say they might change their mind.
Gov. Rell even gets 32 percent of Democratic voters, to 59 percent for DeStefano. She also gets 91 percent of Republican voters and 68 percent of independent voters.
"Mayor DeStefano's debate performance and his subsequent ads attacking Gov. Rell for saying she couldn't think of her biggest mistake may have gotten the Democrat a bump, but nowhere near enough to overcome Rell's huge lead," Dr. Schwartz said.
From October 17 - 19, Quinnipiac University surveyed 881 Connecticut likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research.
For additional data-www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks
1. If the 2006 election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were John DeStefano the Democrat and Jodi Rell the Republican for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward DeStefano or Rell? This table includes Leaners.
LIKELY VOTERS............................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom DeStefano 33% 4% 59% 25% 35% 32% Rell 59 91 32 68 60 58 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 2 - - 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - DK/NA 7 3 9 7 4 10
TREND: If the 2006 election for governor were being held today and the candidates were John DeStefano the Democrat and Jodi Rell the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward DeStefano or Rell? This table includes Leaners.
LIKELY VOTERS......... Oct 20 Sep 28 Aug 17 2006 2006 2006 DeStefano 33 30 32 Rell 59 63 64 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - DK/NA 7 6 4
1a. (If candidate choice q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
LIKELY CHOOSING CAND Q1 CAND CHOICE Q1 Tot JD JR Made up 85% 90% 82% Might change 15 9 17 DK/NA 1 1 -
TREND: Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the Election?
LIKELY VOTERS......... Oct 20 Sep 28 Aug 17 2006 2006 2006 Made up 85 81 72 Might change 15 19 28 DK/NA 1 - 1
2. If the 2006 election for senator were being held today, and the candidates were Ned Lamont the Democrat, Alan Schlesinger the Republican, and Joseph Lieberman running as an independent candidate, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q2) As of today, do you lean more toward Lamont, Schlesinger or Lieberman? This table includes Leaners.
LIKELY VOTERS............................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Lamont 35% 9% 55% 32% 32% 38% Schlesinger 6 18 - 5 8 4 Lieberman 52 70 36 58 53 50 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - DK/NA 7 3 9 5 6 8 CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT............ 01 02 03 04 05 Lamont 34% 35% 33% 28% 44% Schlesinger 5 4 6 8 7 Lieberman 51 54 53 57 43 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - DK/NA 9 6 8 7 6
TREND: If the 2006 election for senator were being held today and the candidates were Ned Lamont the Democrat, Alan Schlesinger the Republican, and Joseph Lieberman running as an independent candidate, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Lamont, Schlesinger or Lieberman? This table includes Leaners.
LIKELY VOTERS......... Oct 20 Sep 28 Aug 17 2006 2006 2006 Lamont 35 39 41 Schlesinger 6 5 4 Lieberman 52 49 53 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - DK/NA 7 7 2
2a. (If candidate choice q2) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
LIKELY CHOOSING CAND Q2 CAND CHOICE Q2 Tot NL JL Made up 86% 89% 88% Might change 13 10 12 DK/NA - 1 -
TREND: Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
LIKELY VOTERS......... Oct 20 Sep 28 Aug 17 2006 2006 2006 Made up 86 83 72 Might change 13 17 28 DK/NA - - -
3. (If Lieberman supporter) What is the main reason you support Lieberman? Is it because of A)his experience, B)his personal qualities, C)his stand on the war in Iraq, D)his stand on issues, other than the war in Iraq or E) Because of his political party?
LIEBERMAN SUPPORTERS...................... LIKELY VOTERS............................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom A) Experience 47% 36% 73% 44% 37% 59% B) Personal qualities 16 20 7 21 20 12 C) Stand on Iraq 9 19 - 7 11 7 D) Issues, not Iraq 12 11 7 17 14 10 E) Political party 2 3 3 - 3 - OTHER(VOL) 12 11 7 9 13 10 DK/NA 1 - 2 2 1 1
4. (If Lamont supporter) What is the main reason you support Lamont? Is it because of A)his experience, B)his personal qualities, C)his stand on the war in Iraq, D)his stand on issues, other than the war in Iraq or E) Because of his political party?
LAMONT SUPPORTERS.................. LIKELY VOTERS...................... Tot Dem Ind Men Wom A) Experience 1% - 1% 1% 1% B) Personal qualities 4 3 6 3 5 C) Stand on Iraq 48 52 48 45 50 D) Issues, not Iraq 15 16 10 19 11 E) Political party 15 17 13 15 16 OTHER(VOL) 17 11 21 16 17 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 -
5. Is your opinion of Joseph Lieberman favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS............................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 49% 67% 36% 53% 52% 47% Unfavorable 28 13 41 24 28 28 Mixed 21 19 21 22 19 23 Hvn't hrd enough - - 1 - - 1 REFUSED 1 1 2 1 1 2
TREND: Is your opinion of Joseph Lieberman favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS......... Oct 20 Sep 28 Aug 17 2006 2006 2006 Favorable 49 51 46 Unfavorable 28 24 30 Mixed 21 22 23 Hvn't hrd enough - 2 1 REFUSED 1 1 -
6. Is your opinion of Ned Lamont favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS............................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 29% 6% 51% 22% 29% 30% Unfavorable 36 70 17 36 42 31 Mixed 21 12 20 27 19 22 Hvn't hrd enough 13 12 11 15 10 16 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 - 1
TREND: Is your opinion of Ned Lamont favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS......... Oct 20 Sep 28 Aug 17 2006 2006 2006 Favorable 29 31 25 Unfavorable 36 28 30 Mixed 21 23 19 Hvn't hrd enough 13 17 26 REFUSED 1 1 -
7. Is your opinion of Alan Schlesinger favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS............................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 8% 12% 4% 9% 12% 4% Unfavorable 15 10 21 12 16 13 Mixed 11 15 9 10 13 9 Hvn't hrd enough 65 63 65 68 59 72 REFUSED 1 1 2 1 - 2
TREND: Is your opinion of Alan Schlesinger favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS......... Oct 20 Sep 28 Aug 17 2006 2006 2006 Favorable 8 3 3 Unfavorable 15 17 15 Mixed 11 10 11 Hvn't hrd enough 65 70 72 REFUSED 1 1 -
8. Did you watch any of the televised Senate debate on Monday between Ned Lamont, Joseph Lieberman and Alan Schlesinger?
LIKELY VOTERS............................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 35% 36% 33% 34% 39% 30% No 65 64 67 65 60 70 DK/NA - - - 1 1 -
9. (If "no" q8) Have you heard or read anything about the debate?
LIKELY DID NOT SEE DEBATE Q8.............. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 54% 55% 58% 52% 60% 49% No 45 45 41 46 39 50 DK/NA 1 - 1 1 1 1 COMBINDED questions 8 & 9
8. Did you watch any of the televised Senate debate on Monday between Ned Lamont, Joseph Lieberman and Alan Schlesinger? 9. (If "no" q8) Have you heard or read anything about the debate?
LIKELY VOTERS............................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Watched debate 35% 36% 33% 34% 39% 30% Heard or read only 35 35 38 34 37 34 Did not see/hear/read 29 29 27 30 24 35 DK/NA 1 - 1 1 1 1
10. (If "yes" q8 or q9)As a result of the senate debate, have you changed your vote from one senate candidate to another?
WATCHED,HEARD,READ DEBATE................. LIKELY VOTERS............................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 3% 3% 1% 6% 4% 2% No 96 96 99 92 94 97 DK/NA 1 1 - 2 2 1
12. Is your opinion of John DeStefano favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS............................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 32% 8% 50% 30% 32% 33% Unfavorable 19 43 5 18 22 16 Mixed 25 24 23 29 23 27 Hvn't hrd enough 22 24 21 22 21 23 REFUSED 1 - 2 2 1 2
TREND: Is your opinion of John DeStefano favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS......... Oct 20 Sep 28 Aug 17 2006 2006 2006 Favorable 32 27 25 Unfavorable 19 13 14 Mixed 25 27 16 Hvn't hrd enough 22 32 45 REFUSED 1 2 1
13. Is your opinion of Jodi Rell favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about her?
LIKELY VOTERS............................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 59% 82% 42% 63% 55% 62% Unfavorable 12 4 22 6 15 8 Mixed 26 11 31 27 26 25 Hvn't hrd enough 3 3 4 3 3 3 REFUSED 1 - 1 1 - 1
TREND: Is your opinion of Jodi Rell favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about her?
LIKELY VOTERS......... Oct 20 Sep 28 Aug 17 2006 2006 2006 Favorable 59 67 62 Unfavorable 12 10 10 Mixed 26 18 21 Hvn't hrd enough 3 5 7 REFUSED 1 1 -
14. (If support DeStefano) What is the main reason you support DeStefano? Is it because of A) his experience, B) his personal qualities, C) his stand on issues, or D) Because of his political party?
DESTEFANO SUPPORTERS............... LIKELY VOTERS...................... Tot Dem Ind Men Wom A) Experience 11% 15% 4% 8% 14% B) Personal qualities 4 3 4 6 1 C) Stand on issues 45 41 56 44 46 D) Political party 30 33 23 32 27 OTHER(VOL) 9 7 11 10 8 DK/NA 2 2 2 - 4
15. (If support Rell) What is the main reason you support Rell? Is it because of A) her experience, B) her personal qualities, C) her stand on issues or D) Because of her political party?
RELL SUPPORTERS........................... LIKELY VOTERS............................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom A) Experience 24% 20% 22% 27% 24% 24% B) Personal qualities 23 21 35 22 21 25 C) Stand on issues 34 33 29 35 31 36 D) Political party 8 19 5 3 13 4 OTHER(VOL) 9 6 8 11 9 9 DK/NA 2 1 1 2 2 2
16. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
LIKELY VOTERS.............................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 28% 63% 5% 30% 31% 24% Disapprove 67 30 92 64 64 69 DK/NA 6 8 3 6 5 6 CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT............ 01 02 03 04 05 Approve 18% 30% 29% 29% 32% Disapprove 75 67 64 66 61 DK/NA 7 3 7 5 8