Connecticut (CT) Poll * November 1, 2006 * Lieberman Has 12-Point Lead In - Quinnipiac University

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November 1, 2006 - Lieberman Has 12-Point Lead In Connecticut, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Rell Is Up By 24 Points With Six Days To Go

Democratic challenger Ned Lamont has gained some ground, but incumbent Connecticut Sen. Joseph Lieberman now holds a 49 - 37 percent likely voter lead over Democratic candidate Ned Lamont, with 8 percent for Republican Alan Schlesinger, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Five percent are undecided and 12 percent of those who name a candidate say they might change their mind before Election Day.
This compares to a 52 - 35 percent Sen. Lieberman lead over Lamont, with 6 percent for Schlesinger in an October 20 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh- pe-ack) University.
In this latest survey, Lieberman leads Lamont 73 - 6 percent among likely Republican voters, with 19 percent for Schlesinger, and 51 - 36 - 6 percent among independent voters, while likely Democratic voters back Lamont 56 - 37 percent.
The only noticeable shift among party groups is a drop in independent support for Lieberman, from 58 percent October 20 to 51 percent today.
Women voters back Lieberman over Lamont 46 - 41 percent, while men back Lieberman 52 - 33 percent.
"For Ned Lamont to catch Sen. Joseph Lieberman, he needs Alan Schlesinger to break out of single digits and take away Republican votes from Lieberman. That hasn't happened. Lieberman, the once and future Democrat, is winning 73 percent of the Republican vote," said Quinnipiac University Poll Director Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D.
"The good news for Lamont is that he has cut Lieberman's lead by 5 points. The bad news for Lamont is that he still trails by 12 points, which is about where he has been since his Democratic primary victory in August," Dr. Schwartz added.
"If Lamont has an October surprise, he'd better check the calendar."
Governor's Race
Republican incumbent Gov. Jodi Rell leads Democratic challenger John DeStefano 59 - 35 percent among likely voters, compared to 59 - 33 percent October 20. In this latest survey, 6 percent are undecided and 13 percent of those who name a candidate say they might change their mind.
Gov. Rell even gets 36 percent of Democratic voters, to 56 percent for DeStefano. She also gets 93 percent of Republican voters and 62 percent of independent voters.
"With 6 days to go before the election, things are looking very good for Jodi Rell," Schwartz said.
From October 24 - 30, Quinnipiac University surveyed 926 Connecticut likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research.
For additional data-www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks
1. If the 2006 election for governor were being held today and the candidates were John DeStefano the Democrat and Jodi Rell the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward DeStefano or Rell? This table includes Leaners.
LIKELY VOTERS............................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom DeStefano 35% 6% 56% 29% 31% 38% Rell 59 93 36 62 64 53 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - DK/NA 6 1 7 9 4 8 MdlSex Toll,Wndm Fairfld Hrtford Ltchfld NewHvn NewLon DeStefano 23% 41% 30% 39% 39% Rell 72 53 70 51 55 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - DK/NA 4 6 - 9 5 CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT............ 01 02 03 04 05 DeStefano 36% 40% 36% 24% 39% Rell 56 55 54 73 57 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - DK/NA 9 5 10 3 3
TREND: If the 2006 election for governor were being held today and the candidates were John DeStefano the Democrat and Jodi Rell the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward DeStefano or Rell? This table includes Leaners.
LIKELY VOTERS................. Nov 1 Oct 20 Sep 28 Aug 17 2006 2006 2006 2006 DeStefano 35 33 30 32 Rell 59 59 63 64 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - DK/NA 6 7 6 4
1a. (If candidate choice q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
LIKELY CHOOSING CAND Q1 CAND OF CHOICE Q1 Tot JD JR Made up 87% 88% 86% Might change 13 12 14 DK/NA - - -
TREND: Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the Election?
LIKELY VOTERS................. Nov 1 Oct 20 Sep 28 Aug 17 2006 2006 2006 2006 Made up 87 85 81 72 Might change 13 15 19 28 DK/NA - 1 - 1
2. If the 2006 election for senator were being held today and the candidates were Ned Lamont the Democrat, Alan Schlesinger the Republican, and Joseph Lieberman running as an independent candidate, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q2) As of today, do you lean more toward Lamont, Schlesinger or Lieberman? This table includes Leaners.
LIKELY VOTERS............................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Lamont 37% 6% 56% 36% 33% 41% Schlesinger 8 19 3 6 9 6 Lieberman 49 73 37 51 52 46 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 - 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - DK/NA 5 3 3 7 4 6 MdlSex Toll,Wndm Fairfld Hrtford Ltchfld NewHvn NewLon Lamont 39% 41% 33% 34% 36% Schlesinger 9 7 11 7 7 Lieberman 46 46 54 52 54 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - - 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - DK/NA 4 6 1 7 4 CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT............ 01 02 03 04 05 Lamont 40% 39% 32% 39% 36% Schlesinger 7 7 9 10 5 Lieberman 46 51 51 46 52 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - DK/NA 6 3 8 3 5
TREND: If the 2006 election for senator were being held today and the candidates were Ned Lamont the Democrat, Alan Schlesinger the Republican, and Joseph Lieberman running as an independent candidate, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Lamont, Schlesinger or Lieberman? This table includes Leaners.
LIKELY VOTERS................. Nov 1 Oct 20 Sep 28 Aug 17 2006 2006 2006 2006 Lamont 37 35 39 41 Schlesinger 8 6 5 4 Lieberman 49 52 49 53 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - DK/NA 5 7 7 2
2a. (If candidate choice q2) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
LIKELY CHOOSING CAND Q2.... CAND OF CHOICE Q2.. Tot NL JL AS Made up 87% 92% 87% 69% Might change 12 8 13 31 DK/NA - - - -
TREND: Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
LIKELY VOTERS................. Nov 1 Oct 20 Sep 28 Aug 17 2006 2006 2006 2006 Made up 87 86 83 72 Might change 12 13 17 28 DK/NA - - - -