Florida (FL) Poll * April 2, 2007 * Giuliani Widens Lead Over Clin - Quinnipiac University

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April 2, 2007 - Giuliani Widens Lead Over Clinton In Florida, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Gore Squeaks Past Obama In Democratic Primary

Former New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani has opened double-digit leads over top 2008 Democratic presidential contenders in Florida, beating either New York Sen. Hillary Clinton or former Sen. John Edwards 50 - 40 percent, and topping Illinois Sen. Barack Obama 52 - 36 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
This compares to a 47 - 42 percent Giuliani lead over Sen. Clinton in a March 7 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.
Arizona Sen. John McCain gets 45 percent to Clinton's 44 percent. Edwards edges McCain 43 - 41 percent while McCain tops Obama 45 - 39 percent.
In this latest survey, Giuliani leads the Republican pack with 35 percent, followed by Arizona Sen. John McCain with 15 percent, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich at 11 percent, former U.S. Senator and actor Fred Thompson at 6 percent and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney at 5 percent.
With 36 percent, Clinton keeps her lead among Democrats. But former Vice President Al Gore has moved up to 16 percent, followed by Sen. Obama at 13 percent and Edwards at 11 percent.
"There is an old saying in Dixie that the further south you get the further north it looks, so perhaps that explains former Mayor Giuliani's strength. Whatever the reason, he is clearly the front-runner in Florida - home to relocated New Yorkers," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
All three Democrats defeat Romney, but by much smaller margins than in past Quinnipiac University polls. Romney, however, who has been actively campaigning for some time and has raised an estimated $15 million-plus, finds himself for the third consecutive recent Quinnipiac University poll (Ohio and Pennsylvania are the others) tied or trailing Thompson, whose supporters are pressing him to run.
"Obviously there is some support for a Thompson candidacy should he run. He is the least known of the candidates, but among the Republicans and independents who know him, he is well thought of," said Brown. "And if Gore is seriously thinking about running, his continued strength among party activists is encouraging news."
Giuliani's lead over McCain among GOP primary voters has gone from 6 points February 7, to 20 points March 7, with 20 points today.
Giuliani also has the most impressive showing when voters rate the candidates favorably or unfavorably, 59 - 19 percent. Favorability ratings for other candidates are:
48 - 25 percent for McCain; 47 - 45 percent for Clinton; 42 - 20 percent for Obama; 50 - 25 percent for Edwards; 65 percent haven't heard enough about Romney to form an opinion; 74 percent haven't heard enough about Thompson.
"While Sen. Obama has been narrowing the Democratic primary gap with Sen. Clinton in Pennsylvania and Ohio, he is far behind her in Florida. Former Vice President Gore, meanwhile, is moving toward center stage, even as he remains coy about his candidacy," said Brown.
From March 21 - 27, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,061 Florida voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points. The survey includes 445 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.7 percentage points, and 405 Democrats, with a margin of error of +/- 4.9 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Florida, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data -- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x271.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.
1. (If registered Democrat) If the 2008 Democratic primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden, Wesley Clark, Hillary Clinton, Chris Dodd, John Edwards, Al Gore, Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich, Barack Obama and Bill Richardson for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED DEMOCRATS Tot Men Wom Biden 1% 1% 2% Clark 1 1 1 Clinton 36 37 36 Dodd - 1 - Edwards 11 10 12 Gore 16 17 15 Gravel - - - Kucinich 1 1 1 Obama 13 13 13 Richardson 2 2 1 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 3 2 DK/NA 14 11 17
TREND: (If registered Democrat) If the 2008 Democratic primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden, Wesley Clark, Hillary Clinton, Chris Dodd, John Edwards, Al Gore, Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich, Barack Obama and Bill Richardson, for whom would you vote? na = not asked
REGISTERED DEMOCRATS Apr 2 Mar 7 Feb 7 2007 2007 2007 Biden 1 4 2 Clark 1 1 1 Clinton 36 38 49 Dodd - - - Edwards 11 6 7 Gore 16 13 7 Gravel - na na Kucinich 1 1 - Obama 13 13 13 Richardson 2 2 3 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 3 3 DK/NA 14 18 13
2. (If registered Republican) If the 2008 Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Sam Brownback, Jim Gilmore, Newt Gingrich, Rudy Giuliani, Chuck Hagel, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, John McCain, George Pataki, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, Tom Tancredo, Fred Thompson and Tommy Thompson, for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED REPUBLICANS.......... WtBrnAgn Tot Men Wom Evnglcl Brownback 1% 1% - - Gilmore - - - - Gingrich 11 15 6 14 Giuliani 35 33 37 30 Hagel - - - - Huckabee - 1 - 1 Hunter - - - - McCain 15 11 19 15 Pataki - - - - Paul 1 1 - 1 Romney 5 7 3 4 Tancredo - - - - Thompson, F. 6 9 2 10 Thompson, T. 1 1 - 2 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 3 4 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 3 2 DK/NA 19 15 25 20
TREND: (If registered Republican) If the 2008 Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Sam Brownback, Jim Gilmore, Newt Gingrich, Rudy Giuliani, Chuck Hagel, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, John McCain, George Pataki, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, Tom Tancredo, Fred Thompson, and Tommy Thompson, for whom would you vote? na = not asked
REGISTERED REPUBLICANS Apr 2 Mar 7 Feb 7 2007 2007 2007 Brownback 1 1 1 Gilmore - - - Gingrich 11 14 14 Giuliani 35 38 29 Hagel - - - Huckabee - 1 - Hunter - 1 - McCain 15 18 23 Pataki - - 2 Paul 1 - na Romney 5 6 6 Tancredo - 1 - Thompson, F. 6 na na Thompson, T. 1 1 2 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 2 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 - 2 DK/NA 19 16 19
3. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Clinton 40% 5% 80% 34% 37% 42% 24% Giuliani 50 89 15 49 55 46 67 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 - 2 2 2 3 DK/NA 7 4 4 14 6 9 4 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Clinton 38% 35% 35% 37% 50% Giuliani 51 55 53 54 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 - 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 1 3 1 DK/NA 5 8 9 4 8
TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today and the candidates were Hillary Rodham Clinton the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Apr 2 Mar 7 Feb 7 May 24 Apr 20 Feb 24 2007 2007 2007 2006 2006 2006 Clinton 40 42 44 42 41 41 Giuliani 50 47 47 49 52 50 SMONE ELSE 1 1 1 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE 2 2 2 2 1 2 DK/NA 7 8 7 6 6 5
4. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Obama 36% 6% 67% 33% 34% 37% 23% Giuliani 52 87 23 45 55 48 67 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 1 2 2 2 2 DK/NA 10 6 8 19 7 12 8 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Obama 33% 33% 36% 31% 41% Giuliani 55 53 52 62 45 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 1 2 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 3 1 1 DK/NA 10 10 9 4 13
TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Apr 2 Mar 7 2007 2007 Obama 36 36 Giuliani 52 48 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 4 DK/NA 10 12
5. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were John Edwards the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Edwards 40% 8% 73% 38% 37% 42% 32% Giuliani 50 85 20 43 53 47 59 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 2 - 2 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 2 1 1 2 2 DK/NA 8 5 4 17 6 9 7 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Edwards 44% 35% 38% 34% 44% Giuliani 46 53 52 58 45 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 3 - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 2 1 3 DK/NA 6 8 8 7 9
TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were John Edwards the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Apr 2 Mar 7 2007 2007 Edwards 40 40 Giuliani 50 48 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 3 DK/NA 8 10
6. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Clinton 44% 7% 85% 39% 40% 47% 25% McCain 45 82 9 47 51 41 65 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 1 1 2 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 4 1 2 3 2 2 DK/NA 7 5 5 11 5 9 5 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Clinton 40% 39% 39% 42% 55% McCain 50 51 48 43 36 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 6 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 3 4 2 DK/NA 6 7 9 4 6
TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today and the candidates were Hillary Rodham Clinton the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Apr 2 Mar 7 Feb 7 May 24 Apr 20 Feb 24 2007 2007 2007 2006 2006 2006 Clinton 44 44 47 42 42 38 McCain 45 44 43 48 48 53 SMONE ELSE 2 1 1 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE 2 2 2 1 2 1 DK/NA 7 8 7 6 6 7
7. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Obama 39% 9% 74% 36% 36% 42% 21% McCain 45 76 15 47 51 40 63 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 3 2 3 4 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 3 2 3 2 3 DK/NA 11 10 8 13 8 13 10 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Obama 35% 38% 39% 33% 46% McCain 50 46 44 46 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 6 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 3 5 2 DK/NA 10 13 12 10 10
TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Apr 2 Mar 7 Feb 7 2007 2007 2007 Obama 39 39 40 McCain 45 43 42 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 3 DK/NA 11 14 13
8. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were John Edwards the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Edwards 43% 11% 78% 36% 37% 47% 29% McCain 41 75 11 40 49 33 53 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 2 2 2 3 2 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 2 2 2 3 2 DK/NA 12 8 7 19 8 15 13 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Edwards 46% 38% 41% 37% 47% McCain 40 45 39 44 38 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 4 4 2 7 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 4 3 3 DK/NA 10 12 13 9 12
TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were John Edwards the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Apr 2 Mar 7 Feb 7 2007 2007 2007 Edwards 43 41 42 McCain 41 43 43 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 2 DK/NA 12 12 11
9. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Clinton 45% 7% 86% 41% 41% 48% 25% Romney 39 78 4 35 44 34 61 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 3 3 5 4 4 4 DK/NA 10 9 6 17 9 12 9 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Clinton 41% 43% 38% 38% 59% Romney 40 43 45 51 25 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 3 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 8 3 3 2 2 DK/NA 9 9 12 7 12
TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Rodham Clinton the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Apr 2 Mar 7 Feb 7 May 30 2007 2007 2007 2006 Clinton 45 48 52 50 Romney 39 36 34 39 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 2 2 2 DK/NA 10 12 9 8
10. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Obama 42% 10% 74% 40% 39% 44% 25% Romney 35 71 6 32 42 29 52 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 2 3 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 3 3 5 3 4 5 DK/NA 17 15 15 21 13 21 17 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Obama 33% 42% 41% 35% 50% Romney 41 38 36 39 27 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 3 2 6 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 6 1 5 2 3 DK/NA 17 16 16 18 19
TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Apr 2 Mar 7 2007 2007 Obama 42 43 Romney 35 34 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 4 DK/NA 17 18
11. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were John Edwards the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Edwards 50% 17% 88% 43% 46% 53% 38% Romney 31 68 1 25 39 24 43 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 1 3 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 4 3 2 4 4 DK/NA 14 11 5 27 10 17 14 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Edwards 54% 44% 44% 45% 60% Romney 25 37 34 43 24 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 5 4 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 2 4 2 3 DK/NA 13 13 18 10 13
TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were John Edwards the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Apr 2 Mar 7 2007 2007 Edwards 50 48 Romney 31 32 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 DK/NA 14 15
TREND:. Is your opinion of -- favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him/her? Score = Favorable (Haven't Heard Enough)
Apr 2 Mar 7 Feb 7 2007 2007 2007 Clinton, Hillary 47( 5) 48( 9) 51( 7) Edwards, John 50(24) 46(29) 44(27) Giuliani, Rudy 59(19) 56(22) 60(17) McCain, John 48(24) 46(27) 50(24) Obama, Barack 42(37) 40(39) 37(44) Romney, Mitt 19(65) 20(64) 13(75) Thompson, Fred 16(74) na na
12. Is your opinion of -- Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 47% 13% 82% 47% 44% 50% 27% Unfavorable 45 81 11 44 50 41 68 Hvn't hrd enough 5 4 3 6 3 6 4 REFUSED 3 2 3 3 3 3 1
TREND: Is your opinion of -- Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't heard enough about her?
Apr 2 Mar 7 Feb 7 2007 2007 2007 Favorable 47 48 51 Unfavorable 45 39 39 Hvn't hrd enough 5 9 7 REFUSED 3 3 2
13. Is your opinion of -- Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 42% 24% 61% 43% 41% 43% 30% Unfavorable 20 35 6 16 23 17 28 Hvn't hrd enough 37 40 33 38 34 39 40 REFUSED 1 1 - 3 2 1 2
TREND: Is your opinion of -- Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Apr 2 Mar 7 Feb 7 2007 2007 2007 Favorable 42 40 37 Unfavorable 20 19 18 Hvn't hrd enough 37 39 44 REFUSED 1 2 1
14. Is your opinion of -- John McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 48% 63% 31% 57% 51% 44% 54% Unfavorable 25 18 36 20 29 22 19 Hvn't hrd enough 24 17 30 20 17 30 24 REFUSED 3 2 3 4 3 4 3
TREND: Is your opinion of -- John McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Apr 2 Mar 7 Feb 7 2007 2007 2007 Favorable 48 46 50 Unfavorable 25 24 21 Hvn't hrd enough 24 27 24 REFUSED 3 3 4
15. Is your opinion of -- Rudy Giuliani favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 59% 80% 45% 54% 61% 58% 58% Unfavorable 19 6 31 17 20 18 16 Hvn't hrd enough 19 12 22 24 16 22 23 REFUSED 3 1 2 5 3 2 3
TREND: Is your opinion of -- Rudy Giuliani favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Apr 2 Mar 7 Feb 7 2007 2007 2007 Favorable 59 56 60 Unfavorable 19 20 20 Hvn't hrd enough 19 22 17 REFUSED 3 2 3
16. Is your opinion of -- Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 19% 33% 7% 16% 25% 13% 18% Unfavorable 15 5 21 15 16 14 10 Hvn't hrd enough 65 61 71 66 58 71 71 REFUSED 2 1 1 2 1 2 -
TREND: Is your opinion of -- Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Apr 2 Mar 7 Feb 7 2007 2007 2007 Favorable 19 20 13 Unfavorable 15 14 11 Hvn't hrd enough 65 64 75 REFUSED 2 2 1
17. Is your opinion of -- John Edwards favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 50% 29% 72% 47% 45% 53% 39% Unfavorable 25 44 7 23 32 18 34 Hvn't hrd enough 24 24 21 26 21 26 26 REFUSED 2 2 - 4 2 2 1
TREND: Is your opinion of -- John Edwards favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Apr 2 Mar 7 Feb 7 2007 2007 2007 Favorable 50 46 44 Unfavorable 25 23 27 Hvn't hrd enough 24 29 27 REFUSED 2 1 2
18. Is your opinion of -- Fred Thompson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 16% 24% 6% 17% 23% 9% 19% Unfavorable 9 3 13 8 12 5 6 Hvn't hrd enough 74 71 80 74 63 85 75 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 2 1 -
23. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 37% 76% 7% 30% 42% 33% 54% Disapprove 58 19 89 64 55 60 44 DK/NA 5 5 4 6 4 7 2
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President? * - also 35% on 4/20/2006
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Apr 2 Feb 7 Dec 21 Oct 11 Jul 27 Sep 23 Feb 7 2007 2007 2006 2006 2006 2004 2007 * Approve 37 35 38 37 39 50 35 Disapprove 58 60 59 59 58 47 60 DK/NA 5 5 3 4 3 3 5
24. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the situation with Iraq?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 34% 72% 6% 26% 41% 28% 49% Disapprove 61 26 89 66 55 67 45 DK/NA 5 3 5 8 4 5 6
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the situation with Iraq?
Apr 2 Feb 7 Oct 11 Jun 29 May 24 Apr 20 Feb 24 2007 2007 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 Approve 34 30 34 36 36 34 41 Disapprove 61 63 61 59 60 63 54 DK/NA 5 7 5 5 4 4 5