Florida (FL) Poll * September 11, 2007 * Support For Florida Tax Cut Pl - Quinnipiac University

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September 11, 2007 - Support For Florida Tax Cut Plan 13 Points Short, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Gov. Crist's Approval Down Slightly

Word format Florida voters support 47 - 22 percent the Super Homestead Exemption plan, a constitutional amendment to reduce property taxes, with two-thirds of voters saying the proposal must be explained more clearly, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. This is down from 57 - 17 percent support for the tax cut plan in a July 19 poll and short of the 60-percent majority needed for passage.
Republican voters back the tax cut plan 52 - 19 percent, while Democrats back it 47 - 24 percent and independent voters back it 43 - 23 percent.
Gov. Charlie Crist gets a 65 - 17 percent job approval rating, down from his all-time high 73 - 11 percent score in the July 19 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. In
this latest survey, Democrats back the Republican Governor 64 - 23 percent. The tax cut proposal needs "a lot more explanation," 65 percent of Florida voters say; 23 percent want "a little more explanation" and 5 percent say it has been "clearly explained."
"The poll offers conflicting signals about the January 29 referendum. Opponents will be happy that the level of support has dropped from 57 percent to 47 percent - 13 points short of the margin needed for passage," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Supporters, however, can take some heart that there remains a strong desire for more tax cuts and not that much sympathy for local government claims they can't lose the revenue.
"Republicans like this tax cut plan more than Democrats. So the Democratic National Committee decision on the status of Florida's presidential primary could affect the Super Homestead Exemption plan if fewer Democrats turn out January 29 for a 'beauty contest.'"
By a 55 - 42 percent margin, Florida voters favor expanding legalized gambling to raise revenue needed to alleviate Florida's budget shortfall. On a separate question, 24 percent want lawmakers to tap the state's rainy day fund to fill the funding gap.
Florida voters prefer 51 - 31 percent service cuts instead of tax hikes to close the state budget deficit. By a 69 - 21 percent margin, voters want Crist and the Legislature to pick and choose which programs are cut rather than make an across-the board budget reduction.
"The bad news for Gov. Crist is that his approval rating is below 70 percent for the first time in months. The good news is he is still more popular than most governors in America and has a 64 - 23 percent rating from opposition Democrats," said Brown.
Florida voters say 55 - 23 percent that Crist has kept his campaign promises so far, but say 62 - 29 percent that property taxes will not drop significantly during his term as Governor.
On the property tax cut plan, 25 percent say the cut is too large; 13 percent say it is too small and 45 percent say it is "about right."
The main rationale of opponents, that the tax cut would rob local governments of needed revenue, is a valid reason to vote against it, 27 percent say, while 37 percent say it is a valid concern but not reason to vote against the tax plan and 27 percent say it is not a valid concern.
Asked about the 3 to 9 percent property tax cut passed by lawmakers this spring, depending on county of residence, 49 percent say it is not large enough; 8 percent say it is too large and 29 percent say it is "about right."
From September 3 - 9, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,141 Florida voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Florida, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research.
For more data -- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x271.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.
31. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charlie Crist is handling his job as Governor?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 65% 70% 64% 62% 66% 65% 67% Disapprove 17 13 23 16 18 16 12 DK/NA 18 17 13 22 16 19 21 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Approve 69% 69% 54% 62% 70% Disapprove 13 17 22 24 12 DK/NA 18 14 24 15 17
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charlie Crist is handling his job as Governor? * also 73% on 3/29/07
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Sep 11 Jul 19 Jun 6 Mar 29 Feb 6 Jul 19 Sep 11 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 * 2007 Approve 65 73 70 73 69 73 65 Disapprove 17 11 12 9 6 11 17 DK/NA 18 16 19 18 25 16 18
32. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 37% 46% 33% 34% 34% 39% 43% Disapprove 43 32 51 44 49 38 31 DK/NA 20 23 16 22 17 23 26 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Approve 41% 35% 32% 31% 41% Disapprove 36 50 45 45 41 DK/NA 23 16 23 24 18
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Sep 11 Jul 19 Jun 6 Mar 29 Feb 6 Sep 23 Sep 11 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2004 2007 Approve 37 39 41 42 50 51 37 Disapprove 43 37 38 33 27 34 43 DK/NA 20 24 22 25 24 15 20
33. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Nelson is handling his job as United States Senator?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 50% 40% 59% 52% 49% 50% 46% Disapprove 22 31 15 19 28 17 20 DK/NA 29 28 26 30 23 33 34 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Approve 52% 48% 48% 38% 55% Disapprove 19 22 24 33 18 DK/NA 29 30 28 29 27
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Nelson is handling his job as United States Senator?
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Sep 11 Jul 19 Jun 7 Mar 29 Feb 6 Feb 6 Aug 12 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2004 Approve 50 47 47 53 54 54 42 Disapprove 22 26 21 18 18 18 18 DK/NA 29 27 32 29 28 28 40
34. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mel Martinez is handling his job as United States Senator?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 38% 53% 31% 33% 40% 37% 49% Disapprove 33 18 44 34 36 30 17 DK/NA 29 28 25 33 24 33 34 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Approve 42% 42% 37% 41% 33% Disapprove 26 33 35 28 38 DK/NA 32 25 27 31 29
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mel Martinez is handling his job as United States Senator?
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Sep 11 Jul 19 Jun 7 Mar 29 Feb 6 Feb 6 Jul 19 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 Approve 38 36 37 44 48 48 36 Disapprove 33 38 34 25 22 22 38 DK/NA 29 26 30 31 29 29 26
36. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Florida today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Very satisfied 7% 12% 3% 4% 7% 6% 11% Smwht satisfied 40 51 32 37 41 39 47 Smwht dissatisfied 33 25 41 36 34 33 26 Very dissatisfied 18 11 22 21 18 19 15 DK/NA 1 1 1 2 - 2 2 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Very satisfied 10% 7% 5% 7% 5% Smwht satisfied 47 39 40 39 37 Smwht dissatisfied 30 34 35 34 34 Very dissatisfied 13 18 20 18 21 DK/NA - 1 - 2 3
TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Florida today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
Sep 11 Jul 19 Dec 20 Jun 29 May 24 Apr 19 Feb 22 2007 2007 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 Very satisfied 7 8 10 13 15 14 15 Smwht satisfied 40 45 41 45 41 45 43 Smwht dissatisfied 33 33 29 26 25 24 26 Very dissatisfied 18 13 19 16 18 15 14 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 1 2 2
37. What do you think is the most important problem facing Florida today?
Tot Taxes Total 21% Taxes general 7 Property tax 14 Property Insurance 15% Education Total 9% Education general 5 Funding education 2 School choice/Vouchers 1 Education other 1 Economy Total 8% Economy general 2 Unemployment/jobs 3 Minimum wage too low 1 Cost of living 2 Immigration 6% Crime Total 5% Crime/Violence general 4 Drugs 1 Healthcare/Costs/ Ins/HMO's 4 Housing Total 3% Housing general 1 Housing Costs/ Availability 1 Housing other 1 Environment/Pollution 3% Politicians Total 3% Politicians/ Campaigns general 1 Political corruption 1 Governor/State leadership 1 Insurance general 2% Open space/Urban sprawl/Overdevelopment 2% Overcrowding/Over population 2% Budget General 1 Criminal justice system 1 Drought/Water problems 1 Hurricanes 1 War (Iraq) 1 Other 2 DK/NA 6
TREND: What do you think is the most important problem facing Florida today?
Sep 11 Jul 19 Mar 29 Dec 20 Jun 29 2007 2007 2007 2006 2006 Crime Total 5% 4% 3% 4% 5% Crime/Violence general 4 3 3 3 4 Drugs 1 1 - 1 1 Economy Total 8% 7% 5% 6% 6% Economy general 2 2 1 2 1 Unemployment/jobs 3 2 3 2 2 Minimum wage too low 1 - - 1 1 Cost of living 2 3 1 1 2 Education Total 9% 9% 10% 15% 19% Education general 5 6 8 9 14 Teachers - - - 1 1 Funding education 2 2 2 2 3 School choice/Vouchers 1 - - 1 - Education other 1 1 - 2 1 Environment/Pollution 3% 3% 2% 2% 3% Healthcare Total 4% 7% 4% 2% 2% Healthcare/Costs/Insurance/HMO's 4 6 3 2 2 Medicare - 1 - - - Prescription costs - - 1 - - Home/Property Insurance 15% 11% 15% 22% 5% Housing Total 3% 1% 1% 1% 1% Housing general 1 - - - - Housing Costs/Availability 1 1 1 1 1 Housing other 1 - - - - Hurricanes/Weather Total 1% 1% 1% - 5% Hurricanes 1 1 1 - 4 Prepared for weather - - - - 1 Immigration 6% 8% 6% 9% 10% Insurance general 2% 2% 3% - - Open space/Urban sprawl/Overdev 2% 1% 3% 3% 5% Overcrowding/Over population 2% 3% 4% 4% 6% Politicians/Campaigns Total 3% 2% 1% 1% 2% Politicians/Campaigns general 1 1 1 - - Political corruption 1 1 - - 1 Bush administration - - - 1 - Governor/State leadership 1 - - - 1 Taxes Total 21% 22% 19% 9% 3% Taxes general 7 7 4 3 1 Property tax 14 15 15 6 2 Other 2 1 10 7 6 DK/NA 6 4 6 4 5
38. Do you think that Charlie Crist has kept his campaign promises so far or not?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Yes 55% 62% 53% 53% 54% 56% 58% No 23 18 28 23 26 21 16 DK/NA 22 20 19 24 20 23 26 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Yes 59% 58% 47% 59% 56% No 18 26 28 22 22 DK/NA 23 16 26 19 22
TREND: Do you think that Charlie Crist has kept his campaign promises so far or not?
Sep 11 Feb 6 2007 2007 Yes 55 67 No 23 6 DK/NA 22 27
39. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Governor Crist is handling taxes?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 47% 58% 41% 45% 51% 44% 51% Disapprove 35 26 41 35 34 35 26 DK/NA 18 16 17 20 15 21 23 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Approve 49% 52% 45% 36% 48% Disapprove 34 33 37 42 32 DK/NA 17 16 18 22 20
40. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Governor Crist is handling property taxes?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 39% 46% 31% 41% 41% 36% 44% Disapprove 46 41 54 41 46 46 37 DK/NA 15 13 14 18 13 18 20 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Approve 44% 42% 34% 31% 39% Disapprove 36 47 51 55 45 DK/NA 19 11 15 14 16
41. When Governor Crist said that property taxes would "drop like a rock", do you think that he was promising something that he knew he could not deliver or do you think that he believed property taxes would drop much more significantly than they have so far?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Knew he cldn't deliver 37% 27% 43% 37% 36% 37% 29% Believed taxes would drop more 53 61 47 55 53 54 63 DK/NA 10 12 10 8 10 9 8 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Knew he cldn't deliver 29% 38% 39% 41% 39% Believed taxes would drop more 58 57 53 43 51 DK/NA 13 5 8 16 11
42. Do you think property taxes will drop significantly during Crist's term or not?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Yes 29% 34% 27% 26% 34% 24% 30% No 62 56 67 63 60 64 57 ALREADY HAVE (VOL) 1 2 - - 1 1 2 DK/NA 9 9 6 10 5 11 11 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Yes 31% 25% 26% 30% 32% No 56 69 65 60 59 ALREADY HAVE (VOL) 1 1 1 - - DK/NA 12 5 8 10 9
43. As you may know, the state passed a new property tax law cutting property taxes this year by an average of about 3 to 9 percent depending on where you live. Is this year's cut in property taxes too large, not large enough, or about right?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Too large 8% 5% 10% 11% 7% 9% 8% Not large enough 49 51 51 45 52 48 49 About right 29 32 28 31 30 29 30 DK/NA 13 12 11 14 12 14 14 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Too large 13% 7% 9% 5% 6% Not large enough 43 55 43 56 55 About right 30 31 32 23 27 DK/NA 14 7 16 15 12
TREND: As you may know, the state also passed a new property tax law cutting property taxes this year by an average of about 3 to 9 percent depending on where you live. Is this year's cut in property taxes too large, not large enough, or about right?
Sep 11 Jul 19 2007 2007 Too large 8 8 Not large enough 49 47 About right 29 29 DK/NA 13 16
44. Voters will have the the option in a referendum next January to vote on a constitutional amendment creating additional property tax cuts in the form of a "Super Homestead Exemption". How much have you heard or read about this proposal? A lot, some, only a little or nothing at all?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl A lot 16% 15% 16% 17% 18% 14% 9% Some 26 26 29 24 26 26 22 Only a little 26 23 26 30 28 25 31 Nothing at all 29 33 26 28 26 32 35 DK/NA 2 3 2 1 2 2 3 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE A lot 11% 19% 11% 20% 20% Some 23 28 22 28 30 Only a little 31 24 29 23 24 Nothing at all 33 27 34 29 24 DK/NA 2 2 3 - 2
TREND: Voters will have the the option in a referendum next January to vote on a constitutional amendment creating additional property tax cuts in the form of a "Super Homestead Exemption". How much have you heard or read about this proposal? A lot, some, only a little or nothing at all?
Sep 11 Jul 19 2007 2007 A lot 16 14 Some 26 26 Only a little 26 30 Nothing at all 29 27 DK/NA 2 2
45. In general do you support or oppose the Super Homestead Exemption plan?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Support 47% 52% 47% 43% 46% 48% 52% Oppose 22 19 24 23 24 20 18 DK/NA 31 29 29 34 29 32 30 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Support 39% 49% 49% 53% 50% Oppose 24 21 15 24 27 DK/NA 37 30 36 23 23
TREND: In general do you support or oppose the Super Homestead Exemption plan?
Sep 11 Jul 19 2007 2007 Support 47 57 Oppose 22 17 DK/NA 31 26
46. At this point in time what comes closest to your view about the details of this plan:
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl A) Clearly explained 5% 5% 4% 5% 5% 4% 3% B) Needs a little more explanation 23 26 23 18 24 23 24 C) Needs a lot more explanation 65 60 66 70 63 67 65 DK/NA 7 8 7 6 8 7 9 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE A) Clearly explained 4% 5% 3% 3% 7% B) Needs a little more explanation 22 21 22 17 28 C) Needs a lot more explanation 63 69 64 75 61 DK/NA 11 4 12 5 4
TREND: At this point in time what comes closest to your view about the details of this plan -- A) It has been clearly explained. B) It could use a little more explanation. OR C) It could use a lot more explanation.
Sep 11 Jul 19 2007 2007 A) Clearly explained 5 5 B) Needs a little more 23 21 C) Needs a lot more 65 67 DK/NA 7 7
47. Under the Super Homestead Exemption plan homeowners would not have to pay taxes on 75 percent of the first $200,000 of their home's value and would not have to pay taxes on 15 percent of the next $300,000 of their home's value. In general, do you think this proposed tax cut is too large, not large enough, or about right?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Too large 25% 22% 29% 27% 26% 24% 22% Not large enough 13 12 15 11 16 11 9 About right 45 50 40 44 43 46 49 DK/NA 17 17 16 19 15 19 19 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Too large 28% 31% 26% 19% 19% Not large enough 10 7 13 11 21 About right 45 39 44 52 47 DK/NA 17 22 18 18 12
TREND: Under the Super Homestead Exemption plan homeowners would not have to pay taxes on 75 percent of the first $200,000 of their home's value and would not have to pay taxes on 15 percent of the next $300,000 of their home's value. In general, do you think this proposed tax cut is too large, not large enough, or about right?
Sep 11 Jul 19 2007 2007 Too large 25 20 Not large enough 13 13 About right 45 52 DK/NA 17 15
48. Some local government's officials, government employee unions and others are opposed to this plan saying that the proposal would deprive local governments of tax revenue they need to provide necessary services to residents. Which of the following comes closer to your view?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl A) Valid/Reason to vote against 27% 23% 33% 25% 26% 28% 21% B) Valid/NOT reason to vote against 37 36 38 38 34 39 42 C) Not a valid concern 27 31 23 26 33 22 26 DK/NA 10 10 5 11 7 12 12 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE A) Valid/Reason to vote against 30% 29% 23% 25% 27% B) Valid/NOT reason to vote against 33 34 42 41 35 C) Not a valid concern 29 26 22 21 32 DK/NA 8 11 13 13 6
TREND: Some local government's officials, government employee unions and others are opposed to this plan saying that the proposal would deprive local governments of tax revenue they need to provide necessary services to residents. Which of the following comes closer to your view -- A) That is a valid concern and a reason to vote against the proposal. B) This is a valid concern but not a reason to vote against the proposal. OR C) This is not a valid concern.
Sep 11 Jul 19 2007 2007 A) Valid/Vote against 27 21 B) Valid/Not vote agnst 37 40 C) Not valid concern 27 28 DK/NA 10 11
49. As you may know this years state budget is at least 1.1 billion dollars short of the 71 billion dollars needed to balance. Who do you trust more to solve Florida's budget problems the legislature or the Governor?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Legislature 34% 30% 38% 36% 32% 36% 34% Governor 49 56 45 45 54 44 49 DK/NA 17 14 16 19 15 20 17 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Legislature 34% 36% 34% 35% 34% Governor 48 49 49 37 52 DK/NA 18 15 17 28 15
50. To balance the state budget, if you had to choose, which would you prefer -- A) Raising taxes to keep state services at their current level B) Cutting state services to keep taxes at their current level
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl A) Raise taxes/ Hold services 31% 24% 42% 30% 30% 32% 27% B) Cut services/ Hold taxes 51 60 42 48 55 47 51 DK/NA 18 16 15 22 15 21 22 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE A) Raise taxes/ Hold services 33% 35% 31% 29% 28% B) Cut services/ Hold taxes 49 45 53 50 56 DK/NA 18 20 16 22 17
51. If lawmakers decide to cut spending would you favor cutting all state programs by the same amount, or letting the Governor and legislature decide how much to cut each program?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Cut all the same 21% 16% 23% 23% 22% 20% 18% Gov and legislature decide 69 78 66 64 72 65 71 DK/NA 10 6 11 13 5 15 11 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Cut all the same 22% 17% 21% 24% 23% Gov and legislature decide 70 73 69 61 67 DK/NA 8 10 11 15 11
52. Another alternative is that the state has 1.8 billion dollars in reserve for emergencies. Do you think that lawmakers should use that money to close the current budget gap or save it in case the budget situation worsens?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Use that money 24% 18% 27% 27% 23% 25% 22% Save it 70 74 69 67 73 67 68 DK/NA 6 8 4 6 4 7 9 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Use that money 17% 31% 23% 36% 21% Save it 73 66 69 56 77 DK/NA 10 4 8 8 1
53. Another alternative is that the state government allow more legalized gambling in Florida and use the additional tax revenue from gambling as a way to help close the budget deficit. Do you think that Florida should allow more legalized gambling or not?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Yes 55% 49% 61% 56% 59% 51% 40% No 42 49 35 40 38 45 56 DK/NA 3 2 4 4 2 4 4 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Yes 51% 54% 53% 53% 61% No 45 42 44 43 37 DK/NA 4 4 3 4 2