Florida (FL) Poll * April 10, 2008 * Approval Down, But Still Ok Fo - Quinnipiac University

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April 10, 2008 - Approval Down, But Still Ok For Florida's Gov. Crist, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters Support Plans To Cut Spending, Taxes

Word format Florida Gov. Charlie Crist's job approval rating has dropped to its lowest point ever, but still remains a healthy 59 - 25 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
Meanwhile, voters are only vaguely aware of proposed constitutional amendments to change Florida's tax system and limit government spending. But they are positive about the ideas under discussion, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds:
50 - 31 percent in favor of a constitutional amendment to cap state and local spending at the rate of inflation and population growth, plus 1 percent; 48 - 41 percent in favor of cutting property taxes about 25 percent, while raising sales taxes 1 cent and eliminating sales tax exemptions.
Voters split on another tax/spending question, with 43 percent saying the State Legislature only should reduce spending and cut programs to balance the state budget, while 41 percent say legislators also should consider raising taxes and closing tax loopholes.
But by a strong 61 - 28 percent margin, voters oppose using state financial reserves to reduce the budget deficit.
Florida voters also say 64 - 27 percent the state's declining population growth rate is a good thing. Voters also say 55 - 40 percent that Gov. Crist's proposal to increase legalized gambling to help finance education and avoid more budget cuts is a "good idea."
"Even as Gov. Charlie Crist's approval ratings decline a bit, they remain the envy of most governors. The reason his numbers are lower is that they were so high to begin with and voter satisfaction with how things are going in Florida has plummeted," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"Moreover, about half of Florida voters give Gov. Crist credit for keeping his campaign promises," Brown added.
Crist's 59 percent rating continues his slow, incremental decline that has come more among independents and Democrats. His approval rating peaked at 73 percent in March and July of 2007, while his previous low was 65 percent in September and October of 2007. By a margin of 51 - 33 percent, including 46 - 40 percent among Democrats, Florida voters think the Republican Crist has kept his campaign promises.
Only 37 percent of Florida voters are "very satisfied" or "somewhat satisfied" with the way things are going in the state, while 62 percent are "somewhat dissatisfied" or "very dissatisfied." This is the lowest satisfaction rate since Quinnipiac University began asking this question in February, 2005.
Despite the attention in Tallahassee to proposed constitutional amendments that could change state and local government finances, only 32 percent of voters say they know "a lot" or "some" about a proposal to cap on state and local government spending, while 65 percent know "a lot" or "some" about the idea of cutting property taxes in exchange for higher and broader sales taxes.
"Nevertheless, there is support for the general ideas when they are briefly explained," said Brown.
Another tax idea, a $1 per pack increase in the levy on cigarettes with the money set aside for health care, receives 69 - 29 percent support.
Florida voters oppose 54 - 41 percent providing parents with tax money in the form of school vouchers to help pay for their children to attend private or religious schools. Among white, born again, evangelical Christians, support is a lukewarm 49 - 42 percent. By an even larger 59 - 36 percent margin, voters oppose a constitutional amendment to make it easier for the state to provide school vouchers. Even white, born again evangelical Christians oppose such an amendment 48 - 43 percent.
From April 7 - 8, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,215 Florida voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research.
For more data -- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.
1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charlie Crist is handling his job as Governor?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 59% 62% 57% 60% 62% 57% 55% Disapprove 25 24 29 24 27 24 28 DK/NA 15 14 14 16 11 19 17 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Approve 56% 62% 50% 71% 64% Disapprove 28 22 32 15 24 DK/NA 16 15 19 13 12
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charlie Crist is handling his job as Governor? * also 73% on 3/29/07
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Apr 10 Oct 24 Sep 11 Jul 19 Jun 6 Jul 19 Apr 10 2008 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007* 2008 Approve 59 65 65 73 70 73 59 Disapprove 25 17 17 11 12 11 25 DK/NA 15 18 18 16 19 16 15
2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 32% 43% 26% 28% 35% 29% 38% Disapprove 48 38 56 51 50 47 44 DK/NA 20 19 19 21 16 25 18 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Approve 33% 31% 29% 49% 27% Disapprove 45 49 52 28 52 DK/NA 22 19 19 23 21
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Apr 10 Oct 24 Sep 11 Jul 19 Jun 6 Sep 23 Apr 10 2008 2007 2007 2007 2007 2004 2008 Approve 32 36 37 39 41 51 32 Disapprove 48 43 43 37 38 34 48 DK/NA 20 22 20 24 22 15 20
3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Nelson is handling his job as United States Senator?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 49% 38% 60% 49% 47% 50% 47% Disapprove 25 35 18 22 30 21 25 DK/NA 26 28 22 29 23 29 28 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Approve 46% 53% 51% 34% 50% Disapprove 30 24 23 29 24 DK/NA 24 23 26 38 26
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Nelson is handling his job as United States Senator?
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Apr 10 Oct 24 Sep 11 Jul 19 Jun 7 Feb 6 Aug 12 2008 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2004 Approve 49 48 50 47 47 54 42 Disapprove 25 24 22 26 21 18 18 DK/NA 26 28 29 27 32 28 40
4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mel Martinez is handling his job as United States Senator?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 36% 48% 33% 28% 39% 33% 40% Disapprove 37 28 43 42 40 34 29 DK/NA 27 25 24 31 21 33 31 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Approve 35% 34% 37% 35% 38% Disapprove 35 36 41 30 37 DK/NA 31 29 22 36 24
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mel Martinez is handling his job as United States Senator?
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Apr 10 Oct 24 Sep 11 Jul 19 Jun 7 Feb 6 Oct 24 2008 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 Approve 36 35 38 36 37 48 35 Disapprove 37 34 33 38 34 22 34 DK/NA 27 31 29 26 30 29 31
5. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Florida today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Very satisfied 5% 7% 3% 7% 4% 6% 5% Smwht satisfied 32 41 26 33 35 30 40 Smwht dissatisfied 34 31 36 33 32 36 32 Very dissatisfied 28 20 35 27 28 28 21 DK/NA 1 1 - 1 1 1 1 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Very satisfied 2% 7% 5% 8% 5% Smwht satisfied 41 34 29 40 24 Smwht dissatisfied 33 32 39 31 33 Very dissatisfied 23 27 26 20 37 DK/NA 1 - 1 1 1
TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Florida today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
Apr 10 Oct 24 Sep 11 Jul 19 Dec 20 Jun 29 May 24 2008 2007 2007 2007 2006 2006 2006 Very satisfied 5 5 7 8 10 13 15 Smwht satisfied 32 42 40 45 41 45 41 Smwht dissatisfied 34 33 33 33 29 26 25 Very dissatisfied 28 19 18 13 19 16 18 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
6. Do you think that Charlie Crist has kept his campaign promises so far or not?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Yes 51% 58% 46% 51% 53% 50% 53% No 33 27 40 32 33 33 28 DK/NA 16 15 14 17 14 18 19 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Yes 51% 58% 44% 64% 48% No 28 28 38 21 40 DK/NA 21 14 17 15 12
TREND: Do you think that Charlie Crist has kept his campaign promises so far or not?
Apr 10 Oct 24 Sep 11 Feb 6 2008 2007 2007 2007 Yes 51 57 55 67 No 33 24 23 6 DK/NA 16 19 22 27
7. There is a proposed constitutional amendment to cap state and local spending at the rate of inflation and population growth, plus 1 percent. How much have you heard or read about this plan? A lot, some, not much or nothing at all?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl A lot 6% 6% 5% 6% 6% 6% 3% Some 26 26 24 25 30 22 27 Not much 37 36 41 34 34 39 38 Nothing at all 31 31 29 34 29 33 31 DK/NA - - 1 - 1 - 1 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE A lot 5% 5% 5% 6% 8% Some 31 24 21 27 28 Not much 31 43 41 32 34 Nothing at all 31 29 32 36 30 DK/NA 2 - - - 1
8. Do you think this constitutional amendment to cap state and local spending is a good idea or a bad idea?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Good idea 50% 62% 42% 49% 56% 45% 57% Bad idea 31 23 39 31 32 30 22 DK/NA 19 16 18 20 12 25 21 In Q.7........... Heard North/ Heard Not much/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Lot/sm Nothing Good idea 50% 54% 51% 46% 50% 56% 48% Bad idea 31 27 30 34 34 33 30 DK/NA 19 19 20 21 16 11 22
9. There is also a proposal to reduce property taxes about 25 percent by doing away with local property taxes used to fund public schools. The proposed constitutional amendment would require the funds to be made up, most likely by a one-cent increase in state sales tax and the elimination of some sales-tax exemptions. How much have you heard or read about this plan - A lot, some, not much or nothing at all?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl A lot 25% 25% 22% 24% 29% 20% 20% Some 40 42 41 39 34 45 43 Not much 19 17 20 20 18 20 21 Nothing at all 16 15 16 17 18 14 16 DK/NA 1 - 1 1 - 1 1 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE A lot 25% 21% 25% 26% 26% Some 34 42 41 43 41 Not much 25 21 14 15 21 Nothing at all 16 16 20 16 11 DK/NA - - - - 2
10. Do you think this constitutional amendment to reduce property taxes and increase sales taxes is a good idea or a bad idea?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Good idea 48% 58% 44% 42% 50% 45% 50% Bad idea 41 32 46 47 41 42 37 DK/NA 11 10 10 12 8 13 13 In Q.9........... Heard North/ Heard Not much/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Lot/sm Nothing Good idea 50% 53% 39% 50% 49% 50% 44% Bad idea 42 37 47 39 39 42 40 DK/NA 7 10 13 11 12 8 16
11. To help balance the state budget do you think the state legislature should just reduce spending and cut programs or do you think they should also consider raising taxes and closing tax loopholes?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Just cut spending/ programs 43% 56% 35% 39% 47% 40% 53% Also raise taxes 41 29 50 45 44 38 32 DK/NA 16 15 15 15 9 22 14 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Just cut spending/ programs 49% 45% 42% 47% 38% Also raise taxes 40 38 42 41 43 DK/NA 11 17 16 12 19
12. Should lawmakers dip into reserves to lessen budget cuts, or should they keep the "rainy day fund" money in the bank?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Dip into reserves 28% 27% 35% 20% 26% 29% 27% Keep money in bank 61 62 52 71 67 55 61 DK/NA 12 11 13 9 7 16 12 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Dip into reserves 24% 28% 28% 21% 32% Keep money in bank 63 61 60 68 56 DK/NA 13 11 12 11 12
13. Governor Crist has proposed increasing legalized gambling in Florida to help finance public education and avoid additional budget cuts? In general do you think this is a good idea or a bad idea?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Good idea 55% 49% 60% 55% 57% 53% 43% Bad idea 40 47 35 40 39 42 52 DK/NA 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Good idea 48% 59% 47% 60% 64% Bad idea 47 39 47 36 31 DK/NA 5 2 6 3 5
14. To help balance the state budget and limit budget cuts in healthcare would you support or oppose an increase in the cigarette tax of one dollar per pack?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Support 69% 67% 71% 70% 63% 74% 67% Oppose 29 30 27 28 35 23 31 DK/NA 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Smokers Support 65% 63% 63% 79% 79% 30% Oppose 32 35 35 19 18 70 DK/NA 2 2 2 1 3 -
15. In general do you favor or oppose providing parents with tax money in the form of school vouchers to help pay for their children to attend private or religious schools?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favor 41% 51% 34% 38% 48% 35% 49% Oppose 54 44 62 58 49 59 42 DK/NA 5 5 3 4 3 6 8 North/ HvKids PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE PubSch Favor 47% 37% 44% 42% 36% 50% Oppose 48 57 51 54 60 46 DK/NA 5 6 5 5 3 3
16. Would you favor or oppose a constitutional amendment that would make it easier for the state to provide public funds for vouchers to private or religious schools?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favor 36% 46% 29% 31% 42% 31% 43% Oppose 59 49 67 63 53 64 48 DK/NA 5 5 4 5 5 5 9 North/ HvKids PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE PubSch Favor 37% 32% 35% 52% 34% 48% Oppose 56 62 60 45 63 48 DK/NA 7 6 5 3 3 4
17. Population growth in Florida has dropped sharply to 1 percent. In general do you think that this smaller population growth rate is a good thing for Florida or a bad thing?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Good thing 64% 65% 59% 71% 67% 63% 60% Bad thing 27 28 34 19 26 28 32 DK/NA 8 7 7 10 7 9 8 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Good thing 73% 66% 63% 63% 58% Bad thing 20 27 28 32 31 DK/NA 7 7 9 4 11
18. Do you currently smoke cigarettes?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Yes 17% 12% 19% 20% 19% 15% 19% No 83 88 81 80 81 85 81 DK/NA - - - - - - - North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Yes 16% 17% 24% 12% 12% No 84 82 76 88 88 DK/NA - - - - -