Florida (FL) Poll * November 18, 2008 * Gov. Crist Is Man To Beat In F - Quinnipiac University

Home> Institutes and Centers> Quinnipiac University Polling Institute> Florida (FL)> Release Detail

November 18, 2008 - Gov. Crist Is Man To Beat In Florida, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Sen. Martinez Gets Mixed Grades From Voters

Word format
Florida Gov. Charlie Crist remains overwhelmingly popular with a 68 - 18 percent job approval rating that makes him a strong favorite for re-election in 2010, but Sen. Mel Martinez's 42 - 33 percent approval rating makes him much more vulnerable, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
State Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink is at this point the best positioned among leading Democrats to challenge Gov. Crist, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds.
Crist scores an impressive job approval rating of 78 - 12 among Republicans, 60 - 26 among Democrats and 66 - 17 among independent voters. In response to a separate question 58 percent of Florida voters say he deserves a second term in office, compared to 27 percent who say he does not. On a third question, 50 percent say they would vote for Crist if the 2010 election were today, while 28 percent say they would vote for his unnamed Democratic opponent and 23 percent are unsure.
"Florida votes Democrat for President; unseats a couple of Republican congressmen and the state GOP is worrying about the state turning blue, but nothing seems to hurt Gov. Crist," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Charlie Crist is a like a Swiss watch: his numbers are both predictable and impressive. There are a lot of Democratic governors in America who aren't as a popular with members of their own party as is Crist, a Republican."
"Even in bad economic times and with his Republican Party seemingly on the ropes, he remains incredibly popular," Brown added.
Among the Democratic officials mentioned as possible 2010 Crist opponents and whom respondents were asked to rate favorably or unfavorably, Ms. Sink - the only statewide elected official among the four - scores best.
She is viewed favorably by 27 percent, unfavorably by 13 percent, with 59 percent of voters saying they don't know enough about her to form an opinion. Still those numbers are far superior to U.S. Rep. Allen Boyd, with an 11 - 5 percent favorability, U.S. Rep. Kendrick Meek, with a 14 - 8 percent score, and State Sen.-elect Dan Gelber, with an 8 - 3 percent favorability.
"No matter who becomes the Democratic nominee, Gov. Crist will start the campaign as a big favorite for re-election," said Brown.
Although Sen. Martinez gets a somewhat favorable job approval rating, only 36 percent of voters say he deserves another term, while 38 percent say no and 26 percent say they are not sure. If the election were today, 36 percent say they would vote for Martinez while 40 percent would support his unnamed Democratic opponent and 24 percent are undecided.
"The road to a second term appears more difficult for Sen. Martinez than for Gov. Crist. Martinez' numbers aren't awful. The key to his winning re-election will be winning back the allegiance of independent voters, who currently are not in his corner. But with a third of independents saying they re undecided, he certainly has an opportunity to accomplish that end," said Brown.
Attorney General Bill McCollum gets a 51 percent job approval rating, three times the 17 percent who give him a thumbs down verdict.
CFO Sink has a 35 - 21 percent job approval rating, while U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson gets a 51 - 22 percent score.
Florida voters approve 30 - 66 percent of the job President George W. Bush is doing.
From November 11 - 16, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,361 Florida voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed - http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.
1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charlie Crist is handling his job as Governor?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 68% 78% 60% 66% 68% 69% 76% Disapprove 18 12 26 17 20 17 14 DK/NA 13 10 14 17 13 14 10 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Approve 72% 74% 59% 73% 68% Disapprove 16 16 25 11 18 DK/NA 12 10 16 16 13
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charlie Crist is handling his job as Governor? * also 73% on 3/29/07
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Nov 18 Sep 8 Jun 3 Apr 10 Oct 24 Jul 19 Apr 10 2008 2008 2008 2008 2007 2007 * 2008 Approve 68 61 61 59 65 73 59 Disapprove 18 25 23 25 17 11 25 DK/NA 13 14 16 15 18 16 15
2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 46% 59% 36% 42% 46% 46% 58% Disapprove 35 20 43 41 38 32 25 DK/NA 19 20 20 17 16 22 17 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Approve 49% 47% 45% 53% 41% Disapprove 31 33 35 27 42 DK/NA 20 20 20 20 17
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Nov 18 Sep 8 Jun 3 Apr 10 Oct 24 Sep 23 Apr 10 2008 2008 2008 2008 2007 2004 2008 Approve 46% 40 38 32 36 51 32 Disapprove 35 41 46 48 43 34 48 DK/NA 19 19 17 20 22 15 20
3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Nelson is handling his job as United States Senator?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 51% 41% 65% 47% 50% 52% 49% Disapprove 22 30 11 25 27 17 26 DK/NA 27 29 24 28 22 31 25 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Approve 50% 57% 55% 39% 48% Disapprove 27 20 26 24 16 DK/NA 24 23 19 37 36
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Nelson is handling his job as United States Senator?
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Nov 18 Sep 8 Jun 3 Apr 10 Oct 24 Feb 6 Aug 12 2008 2008 2008 2008 2007 2007 2004 Approve 51 49 51 49 48 54 42 Disapprove 22 23 26 25 24 18 18 DK/NA 27 28 24 26 28 28 40
4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mel Martinez is handling his job as United States Senator?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 42% 59% 30% 36% 42% 42% 53% Disapprove 33 20 42 38 39 28 18 DK/NA 25 22 28 26 20 30 28 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Approve 42% 47% 40% 39% 40% Disapprove 27 34 39 29 33 DK/NA 31 19 21 32 26
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mel Martinez is handling his job as United States Senator?
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Nov 18, Sep 8 Jun 3 Apr 10 Oct 24 Feb 6 Oct 24 2008 2008 2008 2008 2007 2007 2007 Approve 42 37 40 36 35 48 35 Disapprove 33 32 35 37 34 22 34 DK/NA 25 31 25 27 31 29 31
5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill McCollum is handling his job as Florida Attorney General?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 51% 62% 46% 43% 46% 55% 57% Disapprove 17 10 21 21 22 12 13 DK/NA 32 28 33 36 32 32 30 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Approve 49% 54% 53% 49% 47% Disapprove 20 11 20 16 18 DK/NA 31 34 27 35 35
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill McCollum is handling his job as Florida's attorney general?
Nov 18 Jun 3 Oct 24 2008 2008 2007 Approve 51 52 44 Disapprove 17 20 17 DK/NA 32 28 39
6. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Alex Sink is handling her job as Florida's chief financial officer?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 35% 34% 35% 38% 38% 32% 34% Disapprove 21 19 24 20 22 20 18 DK/NA 44 47 41 42 40 48 48 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Approve 31% 46% 38% 29% 28% Disapprove 18 19 21 20 25 DK/NA 50 35 40 50 48
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Alex Sink is handling her job as Florida's chief financial officer?
Nov 18 Jun 3 Oct 24 2008 2008 2007 Approve 35 33 38 Disapprove 21 25 15 DK/NA 44 42 47
7. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 30% 66% 4% 19% 34% 27% 51% Disapprove 66 30 93 77 64 68 43 DK/NA 4 4 2 4 2 5 6 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Approve 39% 30% 26% 36% 27% Disapprove 56 68 69 62 70 DK/NA 5 2 5 2 3
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Nov 18 May 22 May 1 Apr 2 Feb 14 Sep 23 May 1 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2004 2008 Approve 30 28 24 29 31 50 24 Disapprove 66 68 71 67 61 47 71 DK/NA 4 5 5 5 8 3 5
8. Looking ahead to the 2010 election for Governor, do you feel that Charlie Crist deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Yes/Deserves 58% 70% 44% 60% 57% 58% 67% No/Does NOT 27 18 40 23 27 28 20 DK/NA 15 12 16 17 16 14 13 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Yes/Deserves 57% 63% 52% 67% 56% No/Does NOT 28 25 31 18 28 DK/NA 15 12 17 15 16
9. If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today, do you think you would vote for Charlie Crist the Republican candidate or for the Democratic candidate?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Crist 50% 82% 20% 47% 53% 47% 71% Democrat 28 4 57 21 25 30 11 DK/NA 23 14 22 32 22 23 18 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Crist 56% 53% 43% 59% 45% Democrat 24 29 29 26 28 DK/NA 20 18 27 15 27
10. Looking ahead to the 2010 election for United States Senator, do you feel that Mel Martinez deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Yes/Deserves 36% 54% 25% 28% 36% 36% 47% No/Does NOT 38 22 50 40 44 31 23 DK/NA 26 24 25 31 19 33 30 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Yes/Deserves 43% 37% 37% 31% 31% No/Does NOT 31 39 37 40 42 DK/NA 26 24 27 29 27
11. If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today, do you think you would vote for Mel Martinez the Republican candidate or for the Democratic candidate?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Martinez 36% 71% 9% 28% 38% 34% 57% Democrat 40 9 74 36 40 40 19 DK/NA 24 20 17 36 22 27 24 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Martinez 39% 35% 35% 44% 33% Democrat 34 44 40 35 42 DK/NA 27 22 25 21 25
12. Is your opinion of -- Mel Martinez favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 31% 51% 17% 26% 32% 31% 45% Unfavorable 28 15 37 33 36 22 15 Hvn't hrd enough 37 30 44 37 30 44 39 REFUSED 3 4 1 3 3 3 2 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Favorable 37% 32% 30% 30% 28% Unfavorable 21 32 30 24 32 Hvn't hrd enough 39 35 36 44 37 REFUSED 3 2 4 1 2
13. Is your opinion of -- Charlie Crist favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 65% 78% 50% 68% 65% 65% 76% Unfavorable 22 14 32 19 22 22 15 Hvn't hrd enough 10 7 16 8 10 11 7 REFUSED 2 - 2 5 3 2 2 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Favorable 65% 67% 58% 69% 69% Unfavorable 20 20 26 17 23 Hvn't hrd enough 14 9 13 10 7 REFUSED 1 4 3 5 1
14. Is your opinion of -- Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 27% 26% 28% 29% 29% 25% 25% Unfavorable 13 12 13 12 14 11 10 Hvn't hrd enough 59 60 59 58 55 62 64 REFUSED 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Favorable 26% 37% 28% 26% 19% Unfavorable 14 11 10 8 18 Hvn't hrd enough 59 51 61 66 61 REFUSED 2 1 - - 2
15. Is your opinion of -- Congressman Allen Boyd favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 11% 9% 15% 8% 11% 11% 14% Unfavorable 5 5 3 6 5 4 2 Hvn't hrd enough 83 84 81 84 82 84 82 REFUSED 2 3 1 2 2 1 2 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Favorable 25% 9% 7% 9% 4% Unfavorable 8 6 3 4 3 Hvn't hrd enough 66 83 88 85 90 REFUSED 1 2 1 2 3
16. Is your opinion of -- Congressman Kendrick Meek favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 14% 6% 26% 10% 13% 16% 5% Unfavorable 8 13 5 6 9 7 8 Hvn't hrd enough 76 79 69 81 76 76 87 REFUSED 2 2 1 2 3 1 1 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Favorable 11% 7% 11% 8% 28% Unfavorable 10 6 6 6 11 Hvn't hrd enough 78 85 82 85 58 REFUSED 1 1 1 - 3
17. Is your opinion of -- State Senator-elect Dan Gelber favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 8% 5% 14% 5% 5% 11% 4% Unfavorable 3 4 2 4 4 2 3 Hvn't hrd enough 87 90 83 88 88 86 92 REFUSED 2 2 1 3 3 1 1 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Favorable 5% 8% 6% 4% 15% Unfavorable 3 3 5 3 2 Hvn't hrd enough 90 88 89 93 81 REFUSED 2 1 1 - 2
21. Do you think that Charlie Crist has kept his campaign promises so far or not?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Yes 56% 71% 42% 57% 56% 56% 69% No 23 14 33 19 22 23 15 DK/NA 21 15 25 24 21 21 16 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Yes 60% 60% 51% 52% 57% No 19 24 26 15 24 DK/NA 22 17 23 33 19
TREND: Do you think that Charlie Crist has kept his campaign promises so far or not?
Nov 18 Sep 8 Jun 3 Apr 10 Oct 24 Sep 11 Feb 6 2008 2008 2008 2008 2007 2007 2007 Yes 56 51 55 51 57 55 67 No 23 29 29 33 24 23 6 DK/NA 21 20 17 16 19 22 27