Florida (FL) Poll * January 21, 2009 * Florida Voters Like Gov. Crist - Quinnipiac University

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January 21, 2009 - Florida Voters Like Gov. Crist As Much As Obama, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; U.S. Senate Race Is Cloudy With Unknown Candidates

Word format Florida Gov. Charlie Crist has a sky-high 65 - 24 percent approval rating and he is as well liked among Florida voters as President Barack Obama, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Most of the potential U.S. Senate candidates are unknown to most voters.
Had Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink decided to run for the U.S. Senate, she would have had a small early lead in the Democratic field, and run almost even with the best-known GOP potential candidate, Attorney General Bill McCollum, with 35 percent for Sink and 36 percent for McCollum, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds.
Although McCollum holds a wide lead in name recognition among the GOP candidates, U.S. Rep. Connie Mack IV, son of the former senator with the same name, runs closely to him in a trial heat of GOP contenders and also is viewed very positively by the party-rank-in-file.
"No one has surfaced as a likely Democratic opponent for Gov. Charlie Crist and that's not surprising given how well he is thought of by Floridians," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "It's impressive at this time of national Obamamania that Gov. Crist's favorability rating is slightly higher than that of the new President. Of course, it's still more than 21 months until the 2010 election, but Charlie Crist looks like a very strong candidate for re-election."
In today's survey, 67 percent of Floridians view Crist favorably, 21 percent unfavorably. Obama is viewed favorably by 66 percent and unfavorably by 16 percent in the survey completed on the eve of his inauguration. No questions were asked about Obama's job approval because he had not been inaugurated when the survey was taken.
Floridians say 56 - 26 percent that Crist deserves a second term and 47 percent say they would vote for him, with 27 percent voting for an unnamed Democrat and 27 percent undecided.
The decision by CFO Sink to walk away from the Senate race leaves a wide open scramble for the Democrat nomination. Because the survey was in the field when she announced her decision not to run, she was left on the list from which respondents were asked to choose for the rest of the polling. In a trial heat among Democratic candidates, she gets 15 percent, while U.S. Rep. Kendrick Meek has 13 percent, followed by U.S. Rep. Ron Klein at 9 percent, U.S. Rep. Allen Boyd with 8 percent and State Sen. Dan Gelber at 1 percent. Even with a ballot that includes Sink, 54 percent of registered Democrats say they do not have a candidate.
In the Republican trial heat, McCollum gets 22 percent to Mack's 21 percent, with 10 percent for U.S. Rep. Vern Buchanan, 6 percent for former Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio, 2 percent for former Florida House Speaker Allan Bense, and 40 percent undecided. Republican voters' favorability ratings of the candidates are:
McCollum: 40 - 14 percent favorable, with 44 percent who don't know enough to form an opinion; Mack: 37 - 12 percent favorable, with 51 percent no opinion; Buchanan: 18 - 9 percent favorable, with 72 percent no opinion; Rubio: 13 - 17 percent favorable, with 69 percent no opinion.
"Connie Mack does surprisingly well. Whether that's because voters know about him and like him for himself, still confuse him with his father or figure that he'll be like his father if elected is not clear, and frankly probably won't be for some time. But clearly his name is a big benefit," said Brown.
None of the potential GOP aspirants is well-known other than McCollum, but Rubio's unfavorable ratings are surprisingly high for a politician with low statewide name recognition.
From January 14 - 19, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,370 Florida voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points. The survey includes 522 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percentage points and 442 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4.7 percentage points
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research.
1. Is your opinion of -- Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 24% 22% 28% 22% 26% 22% 18% Unfavorable 5 5 2 8 7 4 5 Hvn't hrd enough 70 71 69 70 66 73 77 REFUSED 1 2 1 - 1 1 - North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Favorable 23% 29% 21% 23% 24% Unfavorable 4 7 6 4 4 Hvn't hrd enough 72 64 71 71 72 REFUSED 1 1 2 2 -
TREND: Is your opinion of -- Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
Jan 21 Nov 18 2009 2008 Favorable 24 27 Unfavorable 5 13 Hvn't hrd enough 70 59 REFUSED 1 1
2. Is your opinion of -- Congressman Allen Boyd favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 10% 12% 13% 6% 10% 11% 17% Unfavorable 4 6 4 4 6 3 4 Hvn't hrd enough 84 81 83 89 84 85 78 REFUSED 1 2 - 1 - 1 - North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Favorable 22% 7% 11% 6% 5% Unfavorable 11 4 3 1 2 Hvn't hrd enough 66 89 85 91 93 REFUSED 1 1 1 2 -
TREND: Is your opinion of -- Congressman Allen Boyd favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Jan 21 Nov 18 2009 2008 Favorable 10 11 Unfavorable 4 5 Hvn't hrd enough 84 83 REFUSED 1 2
3. Is your opinion of -- Congressman Kendrick Meek favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 14% 4% 22% 12% 13% 14% 6% Unfavorable 6 6 2 8 9 3 5 Hvn't hrd enough 79 87 75 79 77 81 88 REFUSED 1 2 - 1 - 2 1 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Favorable 13% 6% 10% 5% 28% Unfavorable 4 5 6 5 8 Hvn't hrd enough 81 87 84 88 64 REFUSED 2 1 1 2 -
TREND: Is your opinion of -- Congressman Kendrick Meek favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Jan 21 Nov 18 2009 2008 Favorable 14 14 Unfavorable 6 8 Hvn't hrd enough 79 76 REFUSED 1 2
4. Is your opinion of -- Congressman Ron Klein favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 11% 7% 15% 10% 11% 11% 8% Unfavorable 6 5 3 11 8 4 5 Hvn't hrd enough 82 87 81 78 79 84 86 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Favorable 4% 4% 7% 3% 28% Unfavorable 2 2 6 4 12 Hvn't hrd enough 93 92 86 93 58 REFUSED - 2 - 1 2
5. Is your opinion of -- Attorney General Bill McCollum favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 40% 51% 33% 40% 42% 39% 48% Unfavorable 14 10 17 13 19 10 11 Hvn't hrd enough 44 37 49 46 38 50 40 REFUSED 1 2 1 - 1 2 1 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Favorable 43% 42% 44% 38% 35% Unfavorable 15 12 16 12 14 Hvn't hrd enough 41 45 39 47 50 REFUSED 1 1 1 4 -
6. Is your opinion of -- former Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio, favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 13% 12% 12% 14% 15% 11% 12% Unfavorable 17 10 22 17 22 14 13 Hvn't hrd enough 69 77 65 68 63 74 75 REFUSED - 1 - - - - - North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Favorable 11% 15% 10% 9% 17% Unfavorable 18 17 14 14 21 Hvn't hrd enough 70 67 75 76 61 REFUSED - - 1 1 -
7. Is your opinion of -- Congressman Vern Buchanan, favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 18% 21% 15% 21% 18% 19% 23% Unfavorable 9 5 11 10 11 8 6 Hvn't hrd enough 72 72 74 69 71 72 70 REFUSED 1 2 1 - 1 1 1 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Favorable 13% 38% 13% 31% 7% Unfavorable 4 21 6 11 6 Hvn't hrd enough 83 40 79 56 86 REFUSED 1 1 2 2 -
8. Is your opinion of -- Congressman Connie Mack IV, son of former United States Senator Connie Mack, favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 37% 41% 33% 39% 39% 35% 42% Unfavorable 12 8 12 13 16 8 10 Hvn't hrd enough 51 50 54 48 44 56 48 REFUSED 1 1 1 - 2 1 1 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Favorable 32% 38% 33% 50% 38% Unfavorable 12 11 10 25 9 Hvn't hrd enough 56 50 56 22 52 REFUSED 1 2 1 3 -
9. (If registered Democrat) If the 2010 Democratic primary for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were - Alex Sink, Allen Boyd, Kendrick Meek, Ron Klein and Dan Gelber, for whom would you vote?
Dem Sink 15% Boyd 8 Meek 13 Klein 9 Gelber 1 DK/NA 54
10. (If registered Republican) If the 2010 Republican primary for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were - Bill McCollum, Marco Rubio, Allan Bense, Vern Buchanan and Connie Mack IV, for whom would you vote?
Rep McCollum 22% Rubio 6 Bense 2 Buchanan 10 Mack 21 DK/NA 40
11. If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were - Alex Sink the Democrat and Bill McCollum the Republican, for whom would you vote?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Sink 35% 6% 66% 25% 33% 36% 19% McCollum 36 70 12 36 37 35 58 DK/NA 29 23 23 39 30 29 23 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Sink 27% 41% 30% 32% 42% McCollum 40 34 40 38 29 DK/NA 33 25 30 30 28
12. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charlie Crist is handling his job as Governor?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 65% 72% 58% 68% 66% 64% 69% Disapprove 24 19 31 22 24 24 22 DK/NA 11 9 11 10 10 12 9 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Approve 58% 62% 63% 75% 71% Disapprove 29 25 26 17 21 DK/NA 13 13 11 8 8
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charlie Crist is handling his job as Governor? (*also 73% on 3/29/07)
APPROVE....... High Low Jan 21 Nov 18 Sep 8 Jun 3 Apr 10 Jul 19 Apr 10 2009 2008 2008 2008 2008 2007* 2008 Approve 65 68 61 61 59 73 59 Disapprove 24 18 25 23 25 11 25 DK/NA 11 13 14 16 15 16 15
13. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 40% 47% 36% 42% 40% 41% 45% Disapprove 42 35 46 41 48 37 37 DK/NA 18 18 19 17 13 22 18 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Approve 46% 34% 41% 48% 38% Disapprove 39 44 40 33 46 DK/NA 15 22 19 19 16
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
APPROVE....... High Low Jan 21 Nov 18 Sep 8 Jun 3 Apr 10 Sep 23 Apr 10 2009 2008 2008 2008 2008 2004 2008 Approve 40 46 40 38 32 51 32 Disapprove 42 35 41 46 48 34 48 DK/NA 18 19 19 17 20 15 20
14. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Nelson is handling his job as United States Senator?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 53% 47% 59% 53% 54% 51% 52% Disapprove 19 26 12 18 23 16 23 DK/NA 29 27 29 29 23 33 25 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Approve 50% 51% 55% 50% 55% Disapprove 20 24 17 21 15 DK/NA 30 26 28 29 30
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Nelson is handling his job as United States Senator?
APPROVE....... High Low Jan 21 Nov 18 Sep 8 Jun 3 Apr 10 Feb 6 Aug 12 2009 2008 2008 2008 2008 2007 2004 Approve 53 51 49 51 49 54 42 Disapprove 19 22 23 26 25 18 18 DK/NA 29 27 28 24 26 28 40
15. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mel Martinez is handling his job as United States Senator?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 42% 53% 36% 43% 46% 39% 51% Disapprove 30 21 32 31 32 27 25 DK/NA 28 26 32 26 22 33 24 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Approve 48% 35% 45% 49% 38% Disapprove 23 35 28 26 34 DK/NA 30 30 27 25 28
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mel Martinez is handling his job as United States Senator?
APPROVE....... High Low Jan 21 Nov 18, Sep 8 Jun 3 Apr 10 Feb 6 Oct 24 2009 2008 2008 2008 2008 2007 2007 Approve 42 42 37 40 36 48 35 Disapprove 30 33 32 35 37 22 34 DK/NA 28 25 31 25 27 29 31
16. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill McCollum is handling his job as Florida Attorney General?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 51% 63% 46% 49% 53% 50% 60% Disapprove 16 9 19 16 18 14 12 DK/NA 33 28 35 36 29 37 28 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Approve 53% 56% 55% 51% 44% Disapprove 19 18 13 14 14 DK/NA 27 26 32 35 43
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill McCollum is handling his job as Florida Attorney General?
Jan 21 Nov 18 Jun 3 Oct 24 2009 2008 2008 2007 Approve 51 51 52 44 Disapprove 16 17 20 17 DK/NA 33 32 28 39
17. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Alex Sink is handling her job as Florida's chief financial officer?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 39% 32% 49% 36% 41% 38% 39% Disapprove 18 21 14 19 22 15 16 DK/NA 42 47 37 46 38 46 46 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Approve 42% 41% 35% 43% 39% Disapprove 22 22 18 14 14 DK/NA 36 37 48 43 47
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Alex Sink is handling her job as Florida's chief financial officer?
Jan 21 Nov 18 Jun 3 Oct 24 2009 2008 2008 2007 Approve 39 35 33 38 Disapprove 18 21 25 15 DK/NA 42 44 42 47
18. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 34% 70% 10% 30% 34% 33% 59% Disapprove 62 24 88 66 61 62 36 DK/NA 4 6 2 4 4 4 5 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Approve 41% 36% 36% 41% 22% Disapprove 56 60 59 54 73 DK/NA 3 4 5 5 5
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
APPROVE....... High Low Jan 21 Nov 18 May 22 May 1 Apr 2 Sep 23 May 1 2009 2008 2008 2008 2008 2004 2008 Approve 34 30 28 24 29 50 24 Disapprove 62 66 68 71 67 47 71 DK/NA 4 4 5 5 5 3 5
19. Is your opinion of -- Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 66% 36% 87% 72% 62% 70% 45% Unfavorable 16 38 4 9 19 14 35 Hvn't hrd enough 12 18 7 12 13 11 18 REFUSED 5 7 1 8 6 5 3 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Favorable 57% 61% 64% 62% 83% Unfavorable 23 20 18 17 8 Hvn't hrd enough 16 14 13 12 7 REFUSED 5 5 5 10 3
TREND: Is your opinion of -- Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
FAVORABLE..... High Low Jan 21 May 22 May 1 Apr 2 Dec 5 Jan 21 Apr 2 2009 2008 2008 2008 2007 2009 2007 Favorable 66 44 47 42 43 66 42 Unfavorable 16 40 36 38 31 16 38 Hvn't hrd enough 12 14 14 16 22 12 16 REFUSED 5 2 3 4 4 5 4
20. Is your opinion of -- Charlie Crist favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 67% 75% 60% 71% 67% 67% 73% Unfavorable 21 16 27 18 22 21 19 Hvn't hrd enough 10 7 11 9 10 9 8 REFUSED 2 1 2 3 1 3 1 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Favorable 63% 66% 67% 73% 71% Unfavorable 23 21 23 17 18 Hvn't hrd enough 13 10 7 8 9 REFUSED 1 2 3 2 2
TREND: Is your opinion of -- Charlie Crist favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Jan 21 Nov 18 2009 2008 Favorable 67 65 Unfavorable 21 22 Hvn't hrd enough 10 10 REFUSED 2 2
21. Looking ahead to the 2010 election for Governor, do you feel that Charlie Crist deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Yes/Deserves 56% 67% 44% 60% 58% 54% 63% No/Does not 26 18 34 23 26 25 21 DK/NA 19 15 22 17 16 21 16 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Yes/Deserves 49% 59% 53% 62% 58% No/Does not 29 24 26 21 26 DK/NA 21 17 21 17 16
TREND: Looking ahead to the 2010 election for Governor, do you feel that Charlie Crist deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
Jan 21 Nov 18 2009 2008 Yes/Deserves 56 58 No/Does NOT 26 27 DK/NA 19 15
22. If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today, do you think you would vote for Charlie Crist the Republican candidate or for the Democratic candidate?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Crist 47% 76% 23% 49% 50% 44% 67% Democrat 27 6 53 15 23 30 16 DK/NA 27 17 25 35 27 26 17 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Crist 51% 48% 45% 58% 40% Democrat 28 24 29 14 30 DK/NA 21 28 26 28 30
TREND: If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today, do you think you would vote for Charlie Crist the Republican candidate or for the Democratic candidate?
Jan 21 Nov 18 2009 2008 Crist 47 50 Democrat 27 28 DK/NA 27 23
23. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Florida today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Very satisfied 4% 7% 3% 3% 5% 3% 6% Smwht satisfied 42 53 34 39 44 40 48 Smwht dissatisfied 34 25 40 37 34 34 28 Very dissatisfied 20 14 23 20 17 22 17 DK/NA 1 1 - 1 - 1 1 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Very satisfied 7% 2% 5% 5% 2% Smwht satisfied 43 41 46 50 34 Smwht dissatisfied 35 35 29 26 41 Very dissatisfied 15 22 19 17 23 DK/NA 1 - 1 1 1
TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Florida today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied? (*combined satisfied also 63% on 9/23/04)
VERY+SMWHT.... High Low Jan 21 Nov 19 Sep 8 Jun 3 Apr 10 Feb 24 Apr 10 2009 2008 2008 2008 2008 2005* 2008 Very satisfied 4 7 7 4 5 15 5 Smwht satisfied 42 40 39 35 32 48 32 Smwht dissatisfied 34 33 29 34 34 22 34 Very dissatisfied 20 20 2 24 26 15 28 DK/NA 1 1 - 1 1 1 1