Florida (FL) Poll * June 9, 2009 * Democrat Sink Has Small Edge I - Quinnipiac University

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June 9, 2009 - Democrat Sink Has Small Edge In Florida Gov Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters Back Tax Break For First-Time Homeowners

Word format Democrat Alex Sink holds a 38 - 34 percent lead over Republican Bill McCollum in an early look at the 2010 Florida Governor's race, the first matchup since Republican incumbent Charlie Crist said he would not seek a second term, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
Florida voters support 61 - 33 percent reducing property taxes for first-time homeowners, but by a smaller 39 - 19 percent margin they say a 2010 proposed referendum measure to reduce property taxes is a "good idea," the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. Another 41 percent say they haven't heard enough to decide the issue.
The general idea of reducing taxes for business property inches ahead 45 - 42 percent, but again support for a specific referendum next year is mixed: voters say 26 - 18 percent that the referendum is a good idea, but 55 percent haven't heard enough to decide.
Another proposal that will go before the voters in 2010, to eliminate the state's subsidies for statewide political campaigns with tax dollars, is ahead 56 - 33 percent, within range of the 60 percent threshold.
"Florida Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink is ahead in the Governor's race when matched up against State Attorney General Bill McCollum, but voters give him a better job approval rating, 51 - 16 percent, than Sink's 39 - 17 percent," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "McCollum also has an arguably better favorability ratio, 40 - 13 percent, than does her 25 - 7 percent rating, with 66 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion."
"One reason may be that in the survey he is identified as a Republican and she a Democrat," Brown added. "In Florida, as in much of the nation these days, the GOP label is not necessarily a plus, even though 50 percent of voters say the fact that Florida's governor has been Republican since 1998 has been good for the state, compared to 37 percent who say GOP rule has been bad for Florida."
In the trial heat, Sink leads 72 - 11 percent among Democrats while McCollum is ahead 72 - 5 percent among Republicans and 32 - 27 percent among independent voters.
"Ms. Sink's gender and the fact she would be the state's first woman governor are working to her benefit," said Brown. McCollum has a 39 - 37 percent edge among men, but she has a 39 - 30 percent lead among women. Moreover, 11 percent of voters say that the possibility of her being the first female Florida governor makes them more likely to vote for her while 3 percent say it would make them less likely, with 81 percent who say it won't affect their vote.
Currently candidates for Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General, Agriculture Commissioner and Chief Financial Officer get $1 from the state for every $1 they raise privately if they agree to abide by a campaign spending limit. Democrats, Republicans and independent voters all agree public financing for these statewide campaigns should be ended.
"Passage is by no means a sure thing, but at this point those wanting to end the taxpayer subsidies probably have the upper hand," said Brown.
"That is not necessarily the case, however, for voter referenda to help first-time homeowners and businesses. Both proposals have a way to go to get to the 60 percent threshold needed in a voter referendum. Of course supporters have almost 18 months to make their case with the citizens of Florida."
From June 2 - 7, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,245 Florida voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed - http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.
3. If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Alex Sink the Democrat and Bill McCollum the Republican, for whom would you vote?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Sink 38% 5% 72% 27% 37% 39% 17% McCollum 34 72 11 32 39 30 56 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 1 4 3 1 2 DK/NA 25 21 16 37 21 29 23 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Sink 32% 38% 32% 32% 50% McCollum 38 31 40 39 26 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 3 - 2 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 1 4 1 DK/NA 27 26 27 24 22
9. Is your opinion of - Bill McCollum favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 40% 59% 27% 39% 42% 38% 53% Unfavorable 13 4 21 11 15 12 6 Hvn't hrd enough 46 34 51 49 41 49 38 REFUSED 2 3 1 1 2 2 3
TREND: Is your opinion of - Bill McCollum favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? (*Attorney General Bill McCollum)
Jun 9 Jan 21 2009 2009* Favorable 40 40 Unfavorable 13 14 Hvn't hrd enough 46 44 REFUSED 2 1
10. Is your opinion of - Alex Sink favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 25% 16% 35% 24% 26% 25% 22% Unfavorable 7 14 3 6 10 5 11 Hvn't hrd enough 66 67 61 69 62 69 66 REFUSED 1 3 - 1 2 1 2
TREND: Is your opinion of - Alex Sink favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? (*Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink)
Jun 9 Jan 21 Nov 18 2009 2009* 2008* Favorable 25 24 27 Unfavorable 7 5 13 Hvn't hrd enough 66 70 59 REFUSED 1 1 1
16a. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mel Martinez is handling his job as United States Senator?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 43% 53% 36% 43% 47% 39% 51% Disapprove 31 24 34 34 32 30 25 DK/NA 27 23 30 23 22 31 24
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mel Martinez is handling his job as United States Senator?
APPROVE....... High Low Jun 9 Apr 16 Feb 19 Jan 21 Nov 18 Feb 6 Oct 24 2009 2009 2009 2009 2008 2007 2007 Approve 43 42 43 42 42 48 35 Disapprove 31 35 31 30 33 22 34 DK/NA 27 23 26 28 25 29 31
16b. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill McCollum is handling his job as Florida Attorney General?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 51% 64% 42% 51% 54% 48% 62% Disapprove 16 7 22 16 18 14 9 DK/NA 33 28 36 34 28 37 29
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill McCollum is handling his job as Florida Attorney General?
Jun 9 Apr 15 Feb 18 Jan 21 Nov 18 Jun 3 Oct 24 2009 2009 2009 2009 2008 2008 2007 Approve 51 48 48 51 51 52 44 Disapprove 16 18 17 16 17 20 17 DK/NA 33 34 35 33 32 28 39
17. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Alex Sink is handling her job as Florida's chief financial officer?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 39% 29% 49% 38% 41% 38% 40% Disapprove 17 25 11 19 19 16 21 DK/NA 44 46 40 43 40 46 39
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Alex Sink is handling her job as Florida's chief financial officer?
Jun 9 Apr 15 Feb 18 Jan 21 Nov 18 Jun 3 Oct 24 2009 2009 2009 2009 2008 2008 2007 Approve 39 33 32 39 35 33 38 Disapprove 17 22 22 18 21 25 15 DK/NA 44 46 46 42 44 42 47
21. Florida has had Republican governors since 1998. Do you think Republican rule has been good for the state or bad for the state?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Good 50% 84% 25% 52% 52% 47% 70% Bad 37 4 61 35 35 38 16 DK/NA 14 12 14 14 12 15 14 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Good 53% 44% 56% 61% 41% Bad 34 36 36 27 44 DK/NA 13 21 8 12 16
22. If Alex Sink is elected Florida's governor she would be Florida's first woman governor. Does this make you more likely to vote for her, less likely, or doesn't it make a difference?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl More likely 11% 5% 22% 5% 9% 13% 8% Less likely 3 7 2 2 4 3 5 Doesn't make diff 81 85 70 90 84 78 85 DK/NA 5 4 6 3 3 6 2 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE More likely 11% 9% 7% 17% 16% Less likely 3 4 3 6 2 Doesn't make diff 81 84 85 75 76 DK/NA 5 3 5 3 6
23. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Florida today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Very satisfied 6% 6% 5% 5% 8% 4% 7% Smwht satisfied 45 56 40 40 44 46 53 Smwht dissatisfied 33 26 34 38 32 33 27 Very dissatisfied 15 9 19 16 14 16 12 DK/NA 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Very satisfied 5% 4% 4% 8% 7% Smwht satisfied 49 49 48 48 34 Smwht dissatisfied 32 29 33 27 38 Very dissatisfied 11 16 14 16 18 DK/NA 3 2 1 1 2
TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Florida today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied? (*combined High also 63% on 9/23/04)
VERY+SMWHT.... High Low Jun 9 Apr 15 Feb 18 Jan 21 Nov 19 Feb 24 Apr 10 2009 2009 2009 2009 2008 2005* 2008 Very satisfied 6 3 3 4 7 15 5 Smwht satisfied 45 43 40 42 40 48 32 Smwht dissatisfied 33 34 33 34 33 22 34 Very dissatisfied 15 19 22 20 20 15 28 DK/NA 2 1 2 1 1 1 1
24. Do you support or oppose reducing property taxes for first time homeowners in Florida?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Support 61% 60% 65% 55% 61% 60% 61% Oppose 33 34 29 40 33 33 36 DK/NA 6 6 6 5 6 7 3 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Support 56% 58% 67% 59% 61% Oppose 39 37 27 33 32 DK/NA 6 6 6 8 7
25. As you may know, there is going to be a referendum in Florida on property tax reduction for first time homeowners. Under the proposed amendment they would be eligible for a tax exemption on 25 percent. Do you think this is a good idea, a bad idea, or haven't you heard enough about it?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Good idea 39% 31% 49% 32% 44% 35% 34% Bad idea 19 20 13 25 22 16 22 Hvn't heard enough 41 47 38 42 33 48 43 DK/NA 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Good idea 28% 38% 40% 39% 48% Bad idea 23 20 20 17 14 Hvn't heard enough 48 41 40 43 37 DK/NA 1 2 1 2 1
26. Do you support or oppose reducing property taxes for business property in Florida?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Support 45% 54% 39% 42% 52% 39% 51% Oppose 42 33 48 45 39 45 38 DK/NA 13 13 14 12 10 16 10 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Support 38% 42% 45% 64% 45% Oppose 47 42 43 29 43 DK/NA 15 16 12 7 13
27. As you may know, another part of this referendum will limit the increase on property tax assessments for business and rental property. Do you think this is a good idea, a bad idea, or haven't you heard enough about it?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Good idea 26% 32% 22% 25% 29% 23% 32% Bad idea 18 14 18 23 22 15 19 Hvn't heard enough 55 54 60 50 48 60 48 DK/NA 1 1 - 1 1 1 1 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Good idea 20% 24% 23% 37% 30% Bad idea 20 17 17 17 20 Hvn't heard enough 59 58 59 43 49 DK/NA 1 1 1 3 2
28. Florida voters will be asked if they want to repeal the state law that provides public financing for statewide political campaigns. Under the law candidates who agree to a set spending limit received one dollar from the government for every one dollar they raise privately. Do you think public financing of campaigns in Florida should be continued or ended?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Continued 33% 29% 40% 32% 36% 30% 24% Ended 56 60 48 59 57 55 63 DK/NA 12 11 12 9 7 15 13 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Continued 30% 30% 28% 35% 42% Ended 57 54 59 57 52 DK/NA 14 16 13 8 7