Florida (FL) Poll * July 29, 2010 * 'Outsiders' Lead In Florida Pr - Quinnipiac University

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July 29, 2010 - 'Outsiders' Lead In Florida Primaries, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Scott Up In GOP Gov Race, Greene Leads In Dem Senate Bid

Word format Florida businessman Rick Scott holds a 43 - 32 percent lead over State Attorney General Bill McCollum for the Republican gubernatorial nomination, according to a Quinnipiac University poll of likely primary voters released today. Another 23 percent are undecided and 43 percent of those who do name a candidate say they might change their mind.
In the race for the Democratic nomination for the U.S. Senate, businessman Jeff Greene has jumped to a 33 - 23 percent lead over U.S. Rep. Kendrick Meek, with former Miami Mayor Maurice Ferre at 4 percent. But 35 percent are undecided and 54 percent of those who name a candidate say they might change their mind.
Scott's lead, compared to 44 - 31 percent in a June 10 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University, strongly correlates with voter preference for a candidate who is a government outsider rather than one with longtime government experience. Scott, who is independently wealthy, is a former health care executive who has never held political office.
The same is true for Greene, who has leapfrogged Meek who had 29 percent June 10, compared to Greene's 27 percent.
"If there was any doubt that enough money can make a political unknown into a front- runner, the Democratic Senate primary and the Republican primary for governor should lay them to rest," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"Both Greene and Scott have come from nowhere to hold double-digit leads with just a little more than three weeks until the voting."
"Anything can happen in the interim, but since their opponents are unlikely to outspend them down the home stretch, they are both in enviable positions," Brown added. "Both men also are being helped by the national anti-incumbent, anti-establishment wave evident in other primaries. Both men have battled their respective party hierarchies, quite successfully at this point."
Asked which "type of candidate would you prefer to see as governor - someone with years of government experience or a government outsider," likely GOP primary voters opted for the outsider 54 - 28 percent, an outcome which apparently benefits Scott.
"In most election years, McCollum's almost two decades of experience in government would be a major asset, but this year it appears to be a liability, since Scott has scored points labeling his opponent a 'career politician,'" Brown said.
Other questions also reflect Scott's edge:
Among likely Republican primary voters, Scott is viewed favorably by 39 percent, unfavorably by 26 percent, compared to McCollum's split 34 - 34 percent favorability rating; Asked which candidate would do a better job rebuilding Florida's economy, Scott leads by almost two-to-one, 45 - 23 percent; Voters believe Scott shares their values more than McCollum, 38 - 26 percent; They see Scott as more consistently conservative, 38 - 26 percent.
Although Greene holds a double-digit lead in the Democratic primary, likely voters say 44 - 35 percent that they would prefer a candidate with long government experience.
Greene's favorability among likely Democratic primary voters is 31 - 18 percent, with 47 percent who say they don't know enough about him to form an opinion. Meek gets a 28 - 13 percent favorability, with 55 percent who don't know enough about him.
By 26 - 21 percent they say Greene most shares their values, with 46 percent undecided. By 22 - 16 percent they say Meek is more consistently liberal, with 57 percent undecided.
From July 22 - 27, Quinnipiac University surveyed 760 Republican likely primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percentage points and 782 Democratic likely primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points. These likely voters were selected from lists of people who have voted in past elections.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed - http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201. THE FOLLOWING RESULTS ARE BASED ON A POLL OF 760 LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS
1R. If the Republican primary for Governor were being held today, would you vote for Bill McCollum or Rick Scott? (If undecided q1R) As of today, would you say that you lean a little more toward McCollum or Scott? This table includes "Leaners".
LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom McCollum 32% 34% 31% Scott 43 44 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - DK/NA 23 21 25
TREND: If the Republican primary for Governor were being held today, would you vote for Bill McCollum or Rick Scott? (If undecided) As of today, would you say that you lean a little more toward McCollum or Scott? This table includes "Leaners".
LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS Jul 29 Jun 10 2010 2010 McCollum 32 31 Scott 43 44 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - DK/NA 23 24
1aR. (If express choice q1Rep) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary?
LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS CAND CHOICE GIVEN Q1R.... CAND CHOICE Q1R... Tot BM RS Made up 55% 55% 54% Might change 43 43 43 DK/NA 2 1 3
TREND: (If express choice) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary?
LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS CAND CHOICE GIVEN Jul 29 Jun 10 2010 2010 Made up 55 39 Might change 43 59 DK/NA 2 2
2R. Is your opinion of - Rick Scott favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Favorable 39% 39% 38% Unfavorable 26 27 25 Hvn't hrd enough 31 30 32 REFUSED 5 4 6
TREND: Is your opinion of Rick Scott favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS Jul 29 Jun 10 2010 2010 Favorable 39 40 Unfavorable 26 12 Hvn't hrd enough 31 46 REFUSED 5 3
3R. Is your opinion of - Bill McCollum favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Favorable 34% 39% 29% Unfavorable 34 34 35 Hvn't hrd enough 27 22 31 REFUSED 5 5 5
TREND: Is your opinion of Bill McCollum favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS Jul 29 Jun 10 2010 2010 Favorable 34 41 Unfavorable 34 19 Hvn't hrd enough 27 36 REFUSED 5 4
4R. Which type of candidate would you prefer to see as governor - someone with years of government experience or a government outsider?
LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Experience 28% 24% 32% Outsider 54 58 49 DK/NA 18 17 19
5R. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think - would do a better job rebuilding Florida's economy, Bill McCollum or Rick Scott?
LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom McCollum 23% 25% 20% Scott 45 47 44 NO DIFF(VOL) 5 4 6 DK/NA 27 24 30
6R. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you - believe most shares your values, Bill McCollum or Rick Scott?
LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom McCollum 26% 28% 24% Scott 38 41 35 NO DIFF(VOL) 7 7 8 DK/NA 29 24 33
7R. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you - see as the most consistently conservative, Bill McCollum or Rick Scott?
LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom McCollum 26% 26% 26% Scott 38 43 32 NO DIFF(VOL) 5 5 5 DK/NA 32 26 37
THE FOLLOWING RESULTS ARE BASED ON A POLL OF 782 LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS 1D. If the Democratic primary for United States Senator were being held today, would you vote for Kendrick Meek, Maurice Ferre, or Jeff Greene? (If undecided q1D) As of today, would you say that you lean a little more toward Meek, Ferre, or Greene? This table includes "Leaners".
LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Meek 23% 30% 20% Ferre 4 3 4 Greene 33 34 33 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 4 2 DK/NA 35 28 40
TREND: If the Democratic primary for United States Senator were being held today, would you vote for Kendrick Meek, Maurice Ferre, or Jeff Greene? (If undecided) As of today, would you say that you lean a little more toward Meek, Ferre, or Greene? This table includes "Leaners".
LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS Jul 29 Jun 10 2010 2010 Meek 23 29 Ferre 4 3 Greene 33 27 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 - DK/NA 35 37
1aD. (If express choice q1Dem) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary?
LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS CAND CHOICE GIVEN Q1D.... CAND CHOICE Q1D... Tot Meek Greene Made up 43% 57% 36% Might change 54 41 62 DK/NA 2 2 3
TREND: (If express choice) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary?
LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS CAND CHOICE GIVEN Jul 29 Jun 10 2010 2010 Made up 43 36 Might change 54 62 DK/NA 2 3
2D. Is your opinion of - Kendrick Meek favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Favorable 28% 36% 23% Unfavorable 13 13 14 Hvn't hrd enough 55 45 60 REFUSED 4 5 4
TREND: Is your opinion of Kendrick Meek favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS Jul 29 Jun 10 2010 2010 Favorable 28 29 Unfavorable 13 8 Hvn't hrd enough 55 59 REFUSED 4 3
3D. Is your opinion of - Jeff Greene favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Favorable 31% 29% 32% Unfavorable 18 20 17 Hvn't hrd enough 47 45 47 REFUSED 5 7 4
TREND: Is your opinion of Jeff Greene favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS Jul 29 Jun 10 2010 2010 Favorable 31 23 Unfavorable 18 10 Hvn't hrd enough 47 64 REFUSED 5 3
4D. Is your opinion of - Maurice Ferre favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Favorable 8% 8% 8% Unfavorable 8 13 6 Hvn't hrd enough 79 73 83 REFUSED 4 6 4
TREND: Is your opinion of Maurice Ferre favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS Jul 29 Jun 10 2010 2010 Favorable 8 8 Unfavorable 8 6 Hvn't hrd enough 79 83 REFUSED 4 3
5D. Which type of candidate would you prefer to see as a United States Senator, someone with years of government experience or a government outsider?
LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Experience 44% 43% 44% Outsider 35 36 35 DK/NA 21 21 21
6D. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you believe most shares your values - Kendrick Meek, Jeff Greene or Maurice Ferre?
LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Meek 21% 27% 18% Greene 26 29 25 Ferre 3 2 4 NO DIFF(VOL) 4 3 4 DK/NA 46 39 50
7D. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you see as the most consistently liberal - Kendrick Meek, Jeff Greene or Maurice Ferre?
LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Meek 22% 32% 16% Greene 16 16 16 Ferre 3 3 4 NO DIFF(VOL) 2 2 2 DK/NA 57 47 62