Florida (FL) Poll * April 20, 2006 * Nelson Opens 29-Point Lead Ove - Quinnipiac University

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April 20, 2006 - Nelson Opens 29-Point Lead Over Harris In Florida, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters Divided On Citizenship For Immigrants

Democratic incumbent U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson has opened a 56 - 27 percent lead over U.S. Rep. Katherine Harris, his leading Republican challenger, with 14 percent undecided. Even 58 percent of Republicans expect Nelson to win, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. This compares to a 53 - 31 percent lead for Sen. Nelson in a February 24 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN uh-pe-ack) University.
Today's survey also shows Florida voters are conflicted about how to handle illegal immigration, with opinions shifting based on how questions are asked.
In this latest survey, Democrats back Nelson 83 - 8 percent, while Republicans back U.S. Rep. Harris 57 - 25 percent, down from 62 - 22 percent, and independent voters go with the Democrat 57 - 17 percent.
Nelson gets a 40 - 10 percent favorability, with 19 percent mixed and 31 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion. Harris gets a negative 17 - 37 percent favorability, with 15 percent mixed and 30 percent who haven't formed an opinion.
"Sen. Nelson has widened his lead by another 7 points over U.S. Rep. Harris since February and the reality is that there are now even fewer undecided voters for her to convert," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Given the Herculean effort that would be needed to close such a gap, even six months from election, time is running short for her to show progress."
"The fact that more than twice as many Floridians have an unfavorable opinion of Harris as have a favorable one makes her task even more formidable," Brown added.
In an open-ended question, where voters can give any answer, 13 percent of Florida voters now rank immigration as the most important problem facing the state, second only to education- related issues, listed by 24 percent.
Voters oppose 54 - 41 percent making it easier for illegal immigrants to become U.S. citizens. But voters split 48 - 47 percent making it easier for illegal immigrants to become legal workers.
And when voters are asked to choose between two approaches to the illegal immigration problem currently being considered by Congress:
72 percent support a long-term process where an immigrant gets a temporary work visa, pays a fine and back taxes, learns English and ultimately becomes a citizen; 24 percent support making illegal immigration a crime and barring illegal immigrants from the U.S.
Recent pro-immigrant demonstrations have left 38 percent of voters less sympathetic to the demonstrators' goals, while 17 percent are more sympathetic.
"Immigration has caught the attention of Florida voters and the issue's complexity is reflected in voter ambivalence. Public opinion is all over the map, especially on the key issue of citizenship," Brown said.
In an early look at the 2008 presidential race, New York Sen. Hillary Clinton is the pick of 43 percent of Florida Democrats, while former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani leads the Republican pack with 42 percent, followed by Arizona Sen. John McCain with 26 percent. In general election matchups, Giuliani beats Sen. Clinton 52 - 41 percent and McCain tops Clinton 48 - 42 percent in Florida.
From April 11 - 17, Quinnipiac University surveyed 951 Florida registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percentage points. The survey includes 383 Democratic voters and 385 Republicans, each group with a margin of error of +/- 5 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Florida, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and the nation as a public service and for research. For additional data-www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks
3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Nelson is handling his job as United States Senator?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 50% 41% 55% 55% 54% 48% Disapprove 19 25 15 16 19 19 DK/NA 30 33 29 29 27 33 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Approve 47% 48% 45% 56% 56% Disapprove 19 18 25 19 16 DK/NA 33 35 30 25 27
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Nelson is handling his job as United States Senator? (*Also hit 50% on 4/14/05 & 2/25/05)
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Apr 20 Feb 24 Nov 15 Aug 31 Jun 29 Apr 20 Aug 12 2006 2006 2005 2005 2005 2006* 2004 Approve 50 49 49 49 46 50 42 Disapprove 19 20 18 20 23 19 18 DK/NA 30 32 33 30 31 30 40
4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mel Martinez is handling his job as United States Senator?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 43% 62% 31% 36% 45% 41% Disapprove 31 17 41 34 29 32 DK/NA 26 21 28 30 26 27 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Approve 54% 47% 43% 43% 33% Disapprove 20 30 34 25 38 DK/NA 26 23 23 32 30
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mel Martinez is handling his job as United States Senator?
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Apr 20 Feb 24 Nov 15 Aug 31 Jun 29 Feb 24 Nov 15 2006 2006 2005 2005 2005 2006 2005 Approve 43 46 41 45 45 46 41 Disapprove 31 30 29 29 29 30 29 DK/NA 26 25 29 26 26 25 29
5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 35% 70% 10% 27% 37% 33% Disapprove 60 24 85 70 60 61 DK/NA 5 6 5 3 4 5 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Approve 53% 39% 38% 46% 16% Disapprove 43 56 56 45 81 DK/NA 4 5 7 9 3
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Apr 20 Feb 24 Nov 16 Aug 31 Jun 30 Sep 23 Apr 20 2006 2006 2005 2005 2005 2004 2006 Approve 35 46 37 42 45 50 35 Disapprove 60 50 61 54 51 47 60 DK/NA 5 4 2 4 4 3 5
14. Is your opinion of United States Senator Bill Nelson favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 40% 32% 48% 38% 40% 39% Unfavorable 10 15 5 7 13 7 Mixed 19 19 12 26 19 18 Hvn't hrd enough 31 33 33 28 27 35 REFUSED 1 1 1 - 2 - North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Favorable 41% 39% 38% 33% 41% Unfavorable 14 6 14 14 5 Mixed 16 21 20 18 18 Hvn't hrd enough 29 33 28 32 34 REFUSED - 1 - 3 2
TREND: Is your opinion of United States Senator Bill Nelson favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Apr 20 Feb 24 Aug 31 2006 2006 2005 Favorable 40 37 35 Unfavorable 10 11 8 Mixed 19 17 24 Hvn't hrd enough 31 34 31 REFUSED 1 2 1
15. Is your opinion of Congresswoman Katherine Harris favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about her?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 17% 30% 8% 13% 19% 16% Unfavorable 37 20 47 43 37 37 Mixed 15 20 10 16 15 15 Hvn't hrd enough 30 29 35 28 29 32 REFUSED - 1 - - - 1 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Favorable 23% 20% 18% 27% 9% Unfavorable 30 39 33 41 42 Mixed 17 16 17 25 9 Hvn't hrd enough 30 24 31 6 40 REFUSED - 1 - 1 -
TREND: Is your opinion of Congresswoman Katherine Harris favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about her?
Apr 20 Feb 24 Aug 31 2006 2006 2005 Favorable 17 26 22 Unfavorable 37 27 30 Mixed 15 13 15 Hvn't hrd enough 30 32 32 REFUSED - 1 1
16. If the 2006 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Bill Nelson the Democrat and Katherine Harris the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Nelson 56% 25% 83% 57% 54% 58% Harris 27 57 8 17 30 24 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 3 - 4 3 1 DK/NA 14 14 9 21 11 17 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Nelson 43% 52% 54% 42% 71% Harris 38 28 26 38 17 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 4 1 - 2 DK/NA 14 15 18 20 10
TREND: If the election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Bill Nelson the Democrat and Katherine Harris the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Apr 20 Feb 24 Nov 15 Aug 31 Jun 29 2006 2006 2005 2005 2005 Nelson 56 53 55 57 50 Harris 27 31 31 33 38 SMONE ELSE 1 1 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE 2 1 1 1 1 DK/NA 14 14 12 9 10
17. Would you like to see Bill Nelson re-elected Senator, or would you rather see someone else elected Senator?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes/Re-elected 44% 24% 65% 41% 44% 45% No/Someone else 32 54 15 31 38 28 DK/NA 23 21 20 28 18 28 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Yes/Re-elected 40% 42% 39% 34% 54% No/Someone else 38 32 38 38 23 DK/NA 21 26 23 28 23
TREND: Bill Nelson will be up for re-election in 2006. Would you like to see Bill Nelson re-elected Senator, or would you rather see someone else elected Senator?
Highest Lowest Apr 20 Nov 15 Aug 31 Jun 29 Apr 14 Apr 20 Apr 14 2006 2005 2005 2005 2005 2006 2005 Re-elected 44 37 38 38 35 44 35 Smone Else 32 33 35 37 37 32 37 DK/NA 23 29 27 25 28 23 28
18. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would win the Senate election - Bill Nelson or Katherine Harris?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Nelson 70% 58% 83% 68% 72% 68% Harris 16 27 7 13 18 14 DK/NA 15 15 10 19 11 18 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Nelson 60% 71% 71% 62% 76% Harris 25 19 14 18 9 DK/NA 15 10 16 20 15
TREND: Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would win the Senate election - Bill Nelson or Katherine Harris?
Apr 20 Aug 31 2006 2005 Nelson 70 56 Harris 16 24 DK/NA 15 20
19. (If registered Democrat) Who would you most like to see the Democrats nominate for President in 2008 if the candidates were New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, Wisconsin Senator Russ Feingold, former Virginia Governor Mark Warner, Delaware Senator Joseph Biden, Massachusetts Senator John Kerry, former North Carolina Senator John Edwards and Indiana Senator Evan Bayh?
Registered Democrats Clinton 43% Feingold 2 Warner 4 Biden 8 Kerry 12 Edwards 16 Bayh 2 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 DK/NA 11
TREND: Who would you most like to see the Democrats nominate for President in 2008 if the candidates were; New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, Wisconsin Senator Russ Feingold, former Virginia Governor Mark Warner, Delaware Senator Joseph Biden, Massachusetts Senator John Kerry, former North Carolina Senator John Edwards, and Indiana Senator Evan Bayh? (na = not asked)
REGISTERED DEMOCRATS Apr 20 Feb 24 2006 2006 Clinton 43 41% Feingold 2 2 Warner 4 5 Biden 8 8 Kerry 12 14 Edwards 16 14 Bayh 2 na SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 DK/NA 11 12
20. (If registered Republican)Who would you like to see the Republicans nominate for President in 2008 if the candidates were Arizona Senator John McCain, Virginia Senator George Allen, Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani and Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney?
Registered Republicans McCain 26% Allen 9 Frist 6 Giuliani 42 Romney 4 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 DK/NA 9
TREND: Who would you most like to see the Republicans nominate for President in 2008 if the candidates were Arizona Senator John McCain, Virginia Senator George Allen, Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani and Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney? (na = not asked)
REGISTERED REPUBLICANS Apr 20 Feb 24 2006 2006 McCain 26 29 Allen 9 6 Frist 6 8 Giuliani 42 47 Romney 4 na SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - DK/NA 9 9
21. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Rodham Clinton the Democrat and Rudolph Giuliani the Republican for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Clinton 41% 6% 76% 37% 37% 44% Giuliani 52 90 19 51 58 47 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 2 2 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 1 1 DK/NA 6 3 3 9 3 8 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Clinton 37% 36% 36% 21% 54% Giuliani 59 55 55 75 38 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 2 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 1 DK/NA 2 7 6 4 6
TREND: If the election for President were being held today and the candidates were Hillary Rodham Clinton the Democrat and Rudolph Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Apr 20 Feb 24 2006 2006 Clinton 41 41 Giuliani 52 50 SMONE ELSE 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE 1 2 DK/NA 6 5
22. If the election for President were being held today and the candidates were Hillary Rodham Clinton the Democrat and John McCain the Republican for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Clinton 42% 9% 78% 36% 36% 48% McCain 48 82 15 50 54 43 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 - 2 3 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 3 2 1 1 2 DK/NA 6 3 5 10 6 7 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Clinton 39% 36% 35% 24% 57% McCain 53 54 54 62 34 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 3 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 3 2 3 1 DK/NA 5 7 6 10 7
TREND: If the election for President were being held today and the candidates were Hillary Rodham Clinton the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Apr 20 Feb 24 2006 2006 Clinton 42 38 McCain 48 53 SMONE ELSE 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE 2 1 DK/NA 6 7
23. If the election for President were being held today and the candidates were Hillary Rodham Clinton the Democrat and George Allen the Republican for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Clinton 46% 10% 81% 44% 40% 52% Allen 40 79 10 34 46 34 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 5 3 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 1 3 2 1 DK/NA 10 9 6 15 10 11 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Clinton 39% 44% 41% 23% 61% Allen 52 41 42 55 27 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 3 4 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 2 2 1 DK/NA 6 11 11 21 10
25. What do you think is the most important problem facing Florida today?
Tot Education Total 24% Education general 18 Teachers 1 Funding education 3 School choice/Vouchers 1 Education other 1 Immigration 13% Economy Total 10% Economy general 3 Unemployment/jobs 3 Minimum wage too low 1 Cost of living 3 Healthcare Total 6% Healthcare/Costs/ Insurance/HMO's 4 Medical malpractice 1 Medicare 1 Hurricanes 5% Overcrowding/Over population 5% Politicians Total 4% Politicians/ Campaigns general 1 Political corruption 1 Bush administration 1 Governor/State leaders 1 Energy Costs Total 4% Energy costs general 1 Gas prices 3 Environment/Pollution 4% Crime Total 3% Crime/Violence general 2 Drugs 1 Taxes Total 3% Taxes general 2 Property tax 1 Open space/Urban sprawl/ Overdevelopment 2% Transportation Total 2% Poor condition of roads/highways 1 Transportation other 1 Drought/Water problems 1 Housing Costs/ Availability 1 Children's issues 1 Racism/Race relations 1 Senior issues 1 Other 3 DK/NA 6
TREND: What do you think is the most important problem facing Florida today?
Apr 20 Feb 22 Nov 23 Feb 24 Dec 07 2006 2006 2005 2005 2004 Crime Total 3% 6% 3% 4% 2% Crime/Violence general 2 4 1 2 - Gangs/Youth crime - 1 - 1 - Drugs 1 1 1 1 2 Crime other - - 1 - - Economy Total 10% 10% 9% 9% 11% Economy general 3 2 2 2 3 Unemployment/jobs 3 4 3 4 7 Stock market - - - - - Minimum wage too low 1 1 2 1 1 Cost of living 3 3 2 1 - Businesses leaving/Outsourcing - - - 1 - Education Total 24% 21% 16% 31% 18% Education general 18 15 12 21 11 Teachers 1 1 1 2 1 Funding education 3 4 3 7 5 School choice/Vouchers 1 1 - 1 1 Education other 1 - - - - Energy costs Total 4% 2% 5% - 1% Energy costs general 1 1 1 - - Gas prices 3 1 3 - 1 Oil prices - - 1 - - Environment/Pollution 4% 3% 4% 5% 3% Healthcare Total 6% 4% 5% 5% 8% Healthcare/Costs/Insurance/HMO's 4 4 4 4 6 Medical malpractice 1 - - - - Medicare 1 - 1 1 1 Prescription costs - - - - 1 Hurricanes 5% 5% 5% - 7% Immigration 13% 6% 6% 4% 7% Open space/Urban sprawl/Overdev 2% 3% 5% 2% 3% Overcrowding/Over population 5% 7% 4% 6% 3% Politicians/Campaigns Total 4% 2% 3% 2% 2% Politicians/Campaigns general 1 1 1 1 1 Political corruption 1 - 1 - 1 Bush administration 1 - - - - Governor/State leadership 1 1 1 1 - Taxes Total 3% 2% 2% 1% 2% Taxes general 2 1 1 1 1 Property tax 1 1 1 - 1 Transportation Total 2% 2% 1% 4% 2% Highway traffic/congestion - 1 - 3 1 Poor condition of roads/highways 1 1 1 1 - Transportation other 1 - - - 1 Other 3 6 12 8 7 DK/NA 6 7 9 7 7
29. Do you support or oppose making it easier for illegal immigrants to become citizens?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Support 41% 38% 44% 40% 40% 42% Oppose 54 58 50 53 57 51 DK/NA 5 4 6 7 4 7 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Support 31% 48% 30% 43% 49% Oppose 64 48 66 51 44 DK/NA 4 4 4 6 7
30. Do you support or oppose making it easier for illegal immigrants to become legal workers?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Support 48% 46% 51% 49% 48% 49% Oppose 47 49 44 47 50 44 DK/NA 5 5 5 4 2 7 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Support 36% 47% 44% 61% 57% Oppose 59 47 51 35 38 DK/NA 5 6 5 4 5
31. Two different approaches have been suggested to deal with illegal immigrants. Please tell me which comes closest to your view - A)Make illegal immigration a crime and not allow anyone who entered the country illegally to work or stay in the United States under any circumstances. OR B)Allow illegal immigrants to get temporary work visas, and allow them to earn permanent residence and eventual citizenship after a certain number of years if they learn English, pay a fine, pay any back taxes, and have no criminal record.
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom A)Make it a crime 24% 29% 18% 24% 27% 22% B)Allow earning citizenship 72 65 79 74 70 73 DK/NA 4 6 3 2 3 5 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE A)Make it a crime 26% 27% 32% 20% 16% B)Allow earning citizenship 69 70 63 74 81 DK/NA 5 3 4 6 3
32. As you may know, recently there have been large demonstrations around the country by people who want Congress to change the law to make it possible for illegal immigrants to become legal residents and become citizens. Have those demonstrations made you more sympathetic or less sympathetic to their goals, or have they not affected your opinion on the issue at all?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom More sympathetic 17% 11% 22% 19% 14% 20% Less sympathetic 38 47 29 40 42 35 Not effected opinion 42 40 48 40 43 42 DK/NA 2 2 2 2 2 3 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE More sympathetic 10% 17% 14% 16% 24% Less sympathetic 45 37 45 44 29 Not effected opinion 44 43 38 40 44 DK/NA 2 3 2 - 2
33. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the situation with Iraq?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 34% 70% 7% 25% 38% 30% Disapprove 63 26 88 72 60 65 DK/NA 4 4 5 3 2 5 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Approve 47% 38% 40% 46% 15% Disapprove 45 60 55 54 82 DK/NA 7 3 5 - 2
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the situation with Iraq?
Apr 20 Feb 24 Nov 16 Aug 31 2006 2006 2005 2005 Approve 34 41 31 39 Disapprove 63 54 64 55 DK/NA 4 5 5 6
34. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Right thing 36% 66% 14% 30% 40% 33% Wrong thing 58 25 85 61 53 62 DK/NA 6 9 1 9 7 5 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Right thing 52% 42% 43% 42% 16% Wrong thing 41 54 49 54 78 DK/NA 7 4 8 5 6
TREND: Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?
Apr 20 Feb 24 Aug 31 Oct 28 Oct 21 Oct 7 Sep 23 2006 2006 2005 2004 2004 2004 2004 Right thing 36 42 41 48 48 46 46 Wrong thing 58 51 53 44 45 49 49 DK/NA 6 6 6 8 7 5 5
35. From what you have seen or heard about the situation in Iraq, what should the United States do? Should the U.S. -- A)increase the number of U.S. troops in Iraq, B)keep the same number of U.S. troops in Iraq as there are now, C)decrease the number of U.S. troops in Iraq, or D)remove all its troops from Iraq?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Increase troops 12% 18% 5% 15% 14% 11% Keep same amount 22 38 8 19 24 20 Decrease troops 24 22 28 22 26 22 Remove all troops 35 14 53 34 29 39 DK/NA 8 7 5 10 7 8 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Increase troops 16% 9% 12% 21% 10% Keep same amount 27 24 23 25 14 Decrease troops 26 20 19 27 28 Remove all troops 26 38 35 23 40 DK/NA 5 9 10 4 7