Florida (FL) Poll * June 29, 2006 * Crist Edges Up In Florida Gove - Quinnipiac University

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June 29, 2006 - Crist Edges Up In Florida Governor's Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; President Gets No Bounce In Approval Ratings

Florida Attorney General Charlie Crist has opened a 49 - 21 percent lead among Republican voters over State Chief Financial Officer Tom Gallagher, his opponent for the Republican gubernatorial nomination, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Another 28 percent of Republicans are undecided. This compares to a 43 - 26 percent lead among Republicans May 24.
Crist also has inched ahead of U.S. Rep. Jim Davis, the leading Democrat in the governor's race, 41 - 39 percent. This compares to a 40 - 37 percent Davis lead in a May 24 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.
Among Democrats, Davis leads State Sen. Rod Smith 32 - 16 percent, with 49 percent undecided, compared to 38 - 17 percent May 24. But 74 percent of Florida voters, including 69 percent of Democrats, don't know enough about Davis to form an opinion. For Smith, the "don't know enough" numbers are even higher.
"Television can make a difference in politics. Attorney General Charlie Crist's sizable war chest began showing its muscle this month. Although the differences in the trial heats over the past month are not large, they are good news for Crist," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University poll.
"Moreover, while Crist was picking up steam, his primary opponent, CFO Tom Gallagher, was moving in the other direction."
"Davis' primary lead over Smith narrowed a bit, but both Democrats remain largely unknown to the vast majority of Florida voters," said Brown.
Gov. Jeb Bush remains the most popular statewide elected leader in Florida, but opinion on the centerpiece of his education reform plan - requirement that the FCAT be passed for public school students to be promoted and allowed to graduate remains split.
Voters approve 57 - 34 percent of the job Gov. Bush is doing.
By a 48 - 44 percent margin, Florida voters favor retaining the FCAT requirement, with Republicans heavily in favor and Democrats opposed. When asked about the FCAT in April, voters supported its current usage by a 47 - 45 percent margin.
While voters support FCAT testing of students, they say 60 - 33 percent that FCAT scores should not be used to decide how much money schools receive.
"The FCAT issue has become a dividing line in the race for Governor with the Democratic candidates attacking, and the Republican contenders defending, Gov. Bush's education plan," Brown said.
President Bush's Approval
Florida voters disapprove 60 - 38 percent of the way President George W. Bush is doing his job, compared to 60 - 36 percent May 24. They disapprove 59 - 36 percent of the way President Bush is handling the war in Iraq and say 55 - 38 percent that going to war in Iraq was the wrong thing to do.
The U.S. should remove all troops from Iraq, 31 percent of Florida voters say, with 24 percent who want to decrease the number of U.S. troops, 22 percent who want to keep current troop levels, and 13 percent who want to increase the number of troops.
From June 20 - 26, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,311 Florida registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points. The survey includes 520 Republicans, with a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percentage points, and 528 Democrats, with a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Florida, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and the nation as a public service and for research. For additional data-www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks
1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jeb Bush is handling his job as Governor?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 57% 86% 35% 53% 61% 53% Disapprove 34 9 56 34 33 35 DK/NA 9 6 9 13 6 12 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Approve 59% 60% 60% 78% 46% Disapprove 31 30 33 18 44 DK/NA 10 10 7 5 11
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jeb Bush is handling his job as Governor?
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Jun 29 May 24 Apr 19 Feb 22 Nov 23 Sep 23 Aug 12 2006 2006 2006 2006 2005 2004 2004 Approve 57 55 55 54 53 62 45 Disapprove 34 35 36 35 37 30 44 DK/NA 9 9 9 11 9 8 11
2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 44% 65% 31% 37% 45% 43% Disapprove 40 19 55 45 42 37 DK/NA 16 16 14 18 13 19 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Approve 48% 49% 44% 54% 36% Disapprove 34 35 43 30 47 DK/NA 19 16 13 16 17
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Jun 29 May 24 Apr 19 Feb 22 Nov 15 Sep 23 Jun 29 2006 2006 2006 2006 2005 2004 2004 Approve 44 40 43 44 41 51 39 Disapprove 40 44 40 36 41 34 42 DK/NA 16 16 17 21 18 15 18
5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 38% 76% 9% 30% 41% 35% Disapprove 60 22 89 65 57 62 DK/NA 3 2 2 5 2 3 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Approve 42% 40% 38% 51% 29% Disapprove 56 58 59 45 67 DK/NA 2 2 3 4 4
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Jun 29 May 24 Apr 20 Feb 24 Nov 16 Sep 23 Apr 20 2006 2006 2006 2006 2005 2004 2006 Approve 38 36 35 46 37 50 35 Disapprove 60 60 60 50 61 47 60 DK/NA 3 3 5 4 2 3 5
6. Is your opinion of Congressman Jim Davis favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 11% 8% 16% 12% 13% 10% Unfavorable 4 5 3 3 4 3 Mixed 10 8 12 10 10 10 Hvn't hrd enough 74 79 69 74 72 76 REFUSED 1 - 1 - - 1 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Favorable 8% 20% 8% 7% 12% Unfavorable 4 6 4 2 2 Mixed 10 15 11 4 7 Hvn't hrd enough 77 59 75 87 79 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 -
TREND: Is your opinion of Congressman Jim Davis favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Jun 29 May 24 Apr 19 Feb 22 2006 2006 2006 2006 Favorable 11 9 10 11 Unfavorable 4 3 4 3 Mixed 10 8 9 7 Hvn't hrd enough 74 78 75 77 REFUSED 1 1 1 1
7. Is your opinion of State Senator Rod Smith favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 7% 5% 8% 6% 8% 6% Unfavorable 3 3 3 3 4 2 Mixed 9 5 12 9 7 11 Hvn't hrd enough 81 86 77 81 81 81 REFUSED - - - - - - North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Favorable 9% 6% 7% 3% 8% Unfavorable 6 2 4 1 2 Mixed 8 7 10 2 11 Hvn't hrd enough 78 85 79 93 78 REFUSED - - - 1 -
TREND: Is your opinion of State Senator Rod Smith favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Jun 29 May 24 Apr 19 Feb 22 2006 2006 2006 2006 Favorable 7 6 8 7 Unfavorable 3 1 3 4 Mixed 9 7 7 6 Hvn't hrd enough 81 84 82 82 REFUSED - 1 1 1
8. Is your opinion of Attorney General Charlie Crist favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 34% 46% 25% 33% 37% 30% Unfavorable 12 7 16 14 14 10 Mixed 17 15 20 17 15 19 Hvn't hrd enough 37 32 39 36 33 40 REFUSED 1 1 - 1 - 1 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Favorable 30% 49% 35% 35% 24% Unfavorable 11 16 11 11 10 Mixed 16 17 17 17 18 Hvn't hrd enough 42 18 36 37 47 REFUSED 1 - 1 - -
TREND: Is your opinion of Attorney General Charlie Crist favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Jun 29 May 24 Apr 19 Feb 22 2006 2006 2006 2006 Favorable 34 34 33 31 Unfavorable 12 9 8 8 Mixed 17 14 13 13 Hvn't hrd enough 37 43 45 47 REFUSED 1 1 1 2
9. Is your opinion of State Chief Financial Officer Tom Gallagher favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 25% 33% 20% 23% 28% 22% Unfavorable 11 9 11 13 14 8 Mixed 17 15 16 22 16 19 Hvn't hrd enough 46 41 53 42 41 51 REFUSED 1 1 - - - 1 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Favorable 24% 22% 24% 34% 25% Unfavorable 7 12 10 7 15 Mixed 18 21 19 23 12 Hvn't hrd enough 50 44 47 35 48 REFUSED 1 1 - 1 -
TREND: Is your opinion of Chief Financial Officer Tom Gallagher favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Jun 29 May 24 Apr 19 Feb 22 2006 2006 2006 2006 Favorable 25 28 29 27 Unfavorable 11 9 9 9 Mixed 17 16 13 14 Hvn't hrd enough 46 46 49 49 REFUSED 1 1 - 1
10. If the 2006 election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Jim Davis the Democrat and Charlie Crist the Republican for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Davis 39% 6% 73% 35% 36% 41% Crist 41 79 12 35 45 37 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 1 DK/NA 18 13 13 27 16 20 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Davis 41% 32% 38% 19% 47% Crist 40 51 39 56 32 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - 2 2 1 DK/NA 18 16 18 23 18
TREND: If the 2006 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Jim Davis the Democrat and Charlie Crist the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Jun 29 May 24 Apr 19 Feb 22 Nov 15 2006 2006 2006 2006 2005 Davis 39 40 39 36 40 Crist 41 37 37 40 39 SMONE ELSE 1 2 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE 1 2 2 1 1 DK/NA 18 19 20 22 19
11. If the 2006 election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Jim Davis the Democrat and Tom Gallagher the Republican for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Davis 42% 6% 77% 39% 39% 43% Gallagher 35 75 9 25 39 32 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 - 4 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 - 3 2 1 DK/NA 20 15 13 29 17 22 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Davis 40% 42% 39% 18% 50% Gallagher 41 32 36 56 28 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 4 2 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 2 3 1 DK/NA 17 20 21 23 19
TREND: If the 2006 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Jim Davis the Democrat and Tom Gallagher the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Jun 29 May 24 Apr 19 Feb 22 Nov 15 2006 2006 2006 2006 2005 Davis 42 40 38 36 41 Gallagher 35 37 38 37 38 SMONE ELSE 2 1 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE 2 2 1 1 1 DK/NA 20 20 22 25 18
12. If the 2006 election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Rod Smith the Democrat and Charlie Crist the Republican for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Smith 35% 4% 70% 30% 33% 38% Crist 42 80 14 35 44 39 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 1 2 2 2 DK/NA 20 15 15 30 20 21 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Smith 37% 27% 35% 19% 44% Crist 42 53 41 59 31 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 2 2 1 DK/NA 19 16 22 20 23
TREND: If the 2006 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Rod Smith the Democrat and Charlie Crist the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Jun 29 May 24 Apr 19 Feb 22 Nov 15 2006 2006 2006 2006 2005 Smith 35 37 37 32 36 Crist 42 39 39 42 41 SMONE ELSE 1 1 1 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE 2 2 2 1 1 DK/NA 20 20 21 23 20
13. If the 2006 election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Rod Smith the Democrat and Tom Gallagher the Republican for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Smith 39% 7% 73% 32% 35% 42% Gallagher 36 73 9 31 42 31 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 - 4 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 1 4 3 2 DK/NA 21 17 17 29 19 23 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Smith 37% 34% 40% 15% 48% Gallagher 42 38 35 55 28 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 - - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 4 2 7 2 DK/NA 19 21 22 23 22
TREND: If the 2006 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Rod Smith the Democrat and Tom Gallagher the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Jun 29 May 24 Apr 19 Feb 22 Nov 15 2006 2006 2006 2006 2005 Smith 39 35 35 34 36 Gallagher 36 39 41 38 41 SMONE ELSE 2 1 1 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE 2 2 2 2 2 DK/NA 21 23 21 25 19
24. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Florida today -- Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Very satisfied 13% 25% 4% 8% 15% 10% Smwht satisfied 45 54 40 42 45 45 Smwht dissatisfied 26 13 34 30 22 29 Very dissatisfied 16 7 21 19 17 15 DK/NA 1 1 - 1 1 1 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Very satisfied 15% 12% 15% 14% 9% Smwht satisfied 50 48 47 52 36 Smwht dissatisfied 19 25 24 20 33 Very dissatisfied 16 14 13 14 20 DK/NA - 1 1 1 1
TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Florida today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
Jun 29 May 24 Apr 19 Feb 22 Nov 15 Aug 31 Jun 30 2006 2006 2006 2006 2005 2005 2005 Very satisfied 13 15 14 15 15 15 14 Smwht satisfied 45 41 45 43 43 42 43 Smwht dissatisfied 26 25 24 26 20 25 27 Very dissatisfied 16 18 15 14 21 17 15 DK/NA 1 1 2 2 1 1 2
25. What do you think is the most important problem facing Florida today?
Tot Education Total 19% Education general 14 Teachers 1 Funding education 3 Education other 1 Immigration 10 % Economy Total 6% Economy general 1 Unemployment/jobs 2 Minimum wage too low 1 Cost of living 2 Overcrowding/Over population 6% Hurricane/Weather total 5% Hurricanes 4 Prepared for weather 1 Property Insurance 5% Crime Total 5% Crime/Violence general 4 Drugs 1 Open space/Urban sprawl/ Overdevelopment 5% Taxes Total 3% Taxes general 1 Property tax 2 Environment/Pollution 3% Energy Total 2% Energy costs general 1 Gas prices 1 Healthcare/Costs/ Ins/HMO's 2% Mass Transit Total 2% Highway traffic/ congestion 1 Poor conditions roads/highways 1 Politicians Total 2% Political corruption 1 Governor/State leadership 1 Criminal justice system 1 Housing Costs/ Availability 1 Children's issues 1 Senior issues 1 Drought/Water problems 1 War (Iraq) 1 Other 6 DK/NA 5
26. For public school students to be promoted from third to fourth grade and to graduate high school, they must pass the FCAT. Some candidates for governor want to eliminate these requirements. Do you support the present FCAT requirement or do you want to eliminate it?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Support requirement 48% 63% 37% 43% 50% 46% Eliminate it 44 29 52 50 39 47 DK/NA 9 8 10 7 10 7 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Support requirement 48% 45% 47% 60% 47% Eliminate it 42 47 44 31 45 DK/NA 9 8 9 9 8
TREND: For public school students to be promoted from third to fourth grade and to graduate high school, they must pass the FCAT. Some candidates for governor want to eliminate those requirements. Do you support the present FCAT requirement or do you want to eliminate it?
Jun 29 Apr 19 2006 2006 Support requirement 48 47% Eliminate it 44 45 DK/NA 9 8
27. If a candidate for governor wants to eliminate the requirement that students pass the FCAT test to be promoted from the third grade and graduate from high school, would you be more likely to vote for that candidate, less likely, or wouldn't it make a difference?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom More likely 26% 19% 31% 27% 23% 29% Less likely 34 40 31 31 39 30 No difference 33 34 31 35 33 34 DK/NA 7 7 7 7 6 8 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE More likely 29% 26% 25% 20% 27% Less likely 33 29 37 39 35 No difference 32 40 30 35 31 DK/NA 6 5 8 6 7
TREND: If a candidate for governor wants to eliminate the requirement that students pass the FCAT test to be promoted from the third grade and graduate from high school, would you be more likely to vote for that candidate, less likely, or wouldn't it make a difference?
Jun 29 Apr 19 2006 2006 More likely 26 27% Less likely 34 29 No difference 33 35 DK/NA 7 8
28. Public schools in Florida are graded based on the scores their students achieve on the FCAT. The grade that a school gets affects how much money the school gets. Do you think the system of grading schools based on the FCAT should be continued or not?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 33% 51% 25% 23% 34% 32% No 60 41 67 70 58 61 DK/NA 8 7 7 7 8 7 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Yes 36% 29% 32% 33% 34% No 59 63 61 53 59 DK/NA 6 8 7 13 7
TREND: Public schools in Florida are graded based on the scores their students achieve on the FCAT. The grade that a school gets affects how much money the school gets. Do you think the system of grading schools based on the FCAT should be continued or not?
Jun 29 Apr 19 2006 2006 Yes 33 31% No 60 63 DK/NA 8 7
33. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the situation with Iraq?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 36% 75% 8% 27% 41% 31% Disapprove 59 22 86 67 54 63 DK/NA 5 3 6 6 5 5 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Approve 39% 37% 36% 54% 29% Disapprove 55 55 60 41 67 DK/NA 6 7 4 5 4
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the situation with Iraq?
Jun 29 May 24 Apr 20 Feb 24 Nov 16 Aug 31 2006 2006 2006 2006 2005 2005 Approve 36 36 34 41 31 39 Disapprove 59 60 63 54 64 55 DK/NA 5 4 4 5 5 6
34. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Right thing 38% 74% 11% 34% 44% 33% Wrong thing 55 19 82 62 50 60 DK/NA 6 6 7 4 6 7 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Right thing 43% 39% 39% 59% 29% Wrong thing 48 55 56 39 64 DK/NA 8 7 5 2 7
TREND: Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?
Jun 29 May 24 Apr 20 Feb 24 Aug 31 Oct 28 Oct 21 2006 2006 2006 2006 2005 2004 2004 Right thing 38 37 36 42 41 48 48 Wrong thing 55 58 58 51 53 44 45 DK/NA 6 5 6 6 6 8 7
35. From what you have seen or heard about the situation in Iraq, what should the United States do? Should the U.S. -- A) increase the number of U.S. troops in Iraq, B) keep the same number of U.S. troops in Iraq as there are now, C) decrease the number of U.S. troops in Iraq, or D) remove all its troops from Iraq?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom A) Increase troops 13% 20% 6% 15% 16% 11% B) Keep same amount 22 37 12 19 27 18 C) Decrease troops 24 23 25 27 22 26 D) Remove all troops 31 10 50 29 26 36 DK/NA 9 10 7 10 9 10 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE A) Increase troops 17% 14% 14% 15% 9% B) Keep same amount 23 23 25 28 18 C) Decrease troops 20 24 24 23 27 D) Remove all troops 30 28 30 17 38 DK/NA 9 11 6 17 9
TREND: From what you have seen or heard about the situation in Iraq, what should the United States do? Should the U.S. -- A)increase the number of U.S. troops in Iraq, B)keep the same number of U.S. troops in Iraq as there are now, C)decrease the number of U.S. troops in Iraq, or D)remove all its troops from Iraq?
Jun 29 May 24 Apr 20 2006 2006 2006 Increase troops 13 14 12 Keep same amount 22 21 22 Decrease troops 24 26 24 Remove all troops 31 31 35 DK/NA 9 8 8
36. (If registered republican) If the 2006 Republican primary for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Charlie Crist and Tom Gallagher for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED REPUBLICANS Tot Men Wom Crist 49% 50% 48% Gallagher 21 21 21 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 DK/NA 28 27 30
TREND: (If registered Republican) If the 2006 Republican primary for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Charlie Crist and Tom Gallagher for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED REPUBLICANS........ Jun 29 May 24 Apr 19 Feb 22 2006 2006 2006 2006 Crist 49 43 34 40 Gallagher 21 26 30 31 SMONE ELSE 1 1 - 2 WLDN'T VOTE 1 2 3 1 DK/NA 28 28 33 27
38. (If registered democrat) If the 2006 Democratic primary for governor were being held today and the candidates were Jim Davis and Rod Smith for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED DEMOCRATS Tot Men Wom Davis 32% 36% 29% Smith 16 14 17 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 2 DK/NA 49 47 50
TREND: (If registered Democrat) If the 2006 Democratic primary for governor were being held today and the candidates were Jim Davis and Rod Smith, for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED DEMOCRATS.......... Jun 29 May 24 Apr 19 Feb 22 2006 2006 2006 2006 Davis 32 38 27 29 Smith 16 17 17 13 SMONE ELSE 1 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE 2 2 4 3 DK/NA 49 41 50 53