Florida (FL) Poll * June 30, 2006 * Hurricanes Exact Steep Costs I - Quinnipiac University

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June 30, 2006 - Hurricanes Exact Steep Costs In Repairs, Insurance, Quinnipiac University Florida Poll Finds; Nelson Has 2 -1 Lead Over Harris, Any GOP Contender

The last two hurricane seasons forced 42 percent of Florida voters to pay for home repairs out of their own pocket, with 72 percent of them spending over $1,000. Home and auto insurance premiums have increased in the last two years, 77 percent report, with most of the increases at $250 or more, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
The survey of 1,311 Florida voters also found Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson retains a 59 - 26 percent lead in his re-election race, ahead of U.S. Rep. Katherine Harris.
Rep. Harris does no better than three other generally unknown Republican challengers, and gets only 35 percent of the Republican votes in a primary matchup, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN uh-pe-ack) University poll finds.
Three in five Florida voters say the last two hurricane seasons had brought "serious damage" to their area and 42 percent said the damage had forced them to make repairs not covered by insurance. Of this 42 percent, 27 percent paid more than $5,000; 45 percent paid $1,000 to $5,000; 16 percent between $500 and $999, and 11 percent less than $500.
Of the 77 percent who report their insurance has gone up because of the hurricanes, 25 percent say their increase has been less than $250; 31 percent peg it at $250 - $499; 22 percent at $500 - $1,000, and 16 percent more than $1,000.
"Hurricanes are not just hazardous to Floridians' health, but to their wallets as well," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "The repair and insurance costs constitute a 'hurricane tax' that has become a fact of life."
Matching Sen. Nelson against possible Republican challengers, the independent Quinnipiac University poll finds Nelson with commanding leads:
59 - 26 percent over Harris, compared to 58 - 25 percent May 25; 56 - 25 percent over McBride; 57 - 20 percent over LeRoy Collins Jr. 58 - 21 percent over Peter Monroe.
In a Republican primary, Harris leads with 35 percent, two points lower than last month. McBride is second with 16 percent, up from 13 percent. The largest vote is for "Don't know," at 38 percent.
Florida voters approve 45 - 23 percent of the job Nelson is doing and give him a 40 - 11 favorability rating, with 20 percent mixed and 29 percent who don't know enough to form an opinion.
Harris gets a negative 20 - 34 percent favorability, with 15 percent mixed and 29 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion.
For McBride, Collins or Monroe, at least 72 percent haven't heard enough to form an opinion.
"Although there are only 10 weeks until the primary, Republicans seem to have questions about whether they want Rep. Harris to be their nominee," said Brown. "That being said, McBride has a decidedly uphill climb in front of him. No matter who wins the Republican primary, Sen. Nelson appears to be in very strong shape for re-election."
From June 20 - 26, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,311 Florida registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points. The survey includes 520 Republicans, and a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percent in the GOP primary matchups.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Florida, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and the nation as a public service and for research.
For additional data-www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks
3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Nelson is handling his job as United States Senator?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 45% 39% 51% 49% 48% 43% Disapprove 23 26 18 25 26 20 DK/NA 32 35 31 26 26 37 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Approve 44% 52% 46% 37% 44% Disapprove 19 25 25 30 19 DK/NA 38 23 29 33 36
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Nelson is handling his job as United States Senator? (*Also 50% on 4/14/05 & 2/25/05)
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Jun 30 May 25 Apr 20 Feb 24 Nov 15 Apr 20 Aug 12 2006 2006 2006 2006 2005 2006* 2004 Approve 45 49 50 49 49 50 42 Disapprove 23 23 19 20 18 19 18 DK/NA 32 27 30 32 33 30 40
4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mel Martinez is handling his job as United States Senator?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 42% 56% 34% 33% 44% 40% Disapprove 31 18 37 41 35 27 DK/NA 28 26 29 26 21 33 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Approve 41% 42% 44% 47% 38% Disapprove 24 33 35 27 31 DK/NA 35 25 21 26 30
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mel Martinez is handling his job as United States Senator?(* - also 41% on 11/15/2005)
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Jun 30 May 25 Apr 20 Feb 24 Nov 15 Feb 24 May 25 2006 2006 2006 2006 2005 2006 2006 * Approve 42 41 43 46 41 46 41 Disapprove 31 32 31 30 29 30 32 DK/NA 28 28 26 25 29 25 28
14. Is your opinion of - United States Senator Bill Nelson favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 40% 35% 45% 41% 44% 36% Unfavorable 11 16 7 10 12 10 Mixed 20 18 20 24 18 23 Hvn't hrd enough 29 31 28 25 26 32 REFUSED 1 1 1 - 1 1 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Favorable 42% 38% 38% 38% 41% Unfavorable 12 12 14 14 7 Mixed 16 24 21 17 20 Hvn't hrd enough 29 26 27 31 31 REFUSED 1 - 1 - 1
TREND: Is your opinion of United States Senator Bill Nelson favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Jun 30 May 25 Apr 20 Feb 24 Aug 31 2006 2006 2006 2006 2005 Favorable 40 37 40 37 35 Unfavorable 11 10 10 11 8 Mixed 20 18 19 17 24 Hvn't hrd enough 29 33 31 34 31 REFUSED 1 2 1 2 1
15. Is your opinion of - Congresswoman Katherine Harris favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about her?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 20% 33% 16% 14% 23% 18% Unfavorable 34 17 43 44 36 33 Mixed 15 18 14 15 14 17 Hvn't hrd enough 29 31 27 28 26 32 REFUSED 1 1 - - 1 1 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Favorable 26% 18% 23% 25% 16% Unfavorable 21 40 33 33 40 Mixed 14 23 15 10 12 Hvn't hrd enough 40 18 28 30 32 REFUSED - 1 1 1 1
TREND: Is your opinion of Congresswoman Katherine Harris favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about her?
Jun 30 May 25 Apr 20 Feb 24 Aug 31 2006 2006 2006 2006 2005 Favorable 20 20 17 26 22 Unfavorable 34 39 37 27 30 Mixed 15 16 15 13 15 Hvn't hrd enough 29 24 30 32 32 REFUSED 1 1 - 1 1
16. Is your opinion of - attorney William McBride favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 11% 9% 12% 11% 11% 10% Unfavorable 4 5 3 5 5 4 Mixed 12 9 14 13 10 13 Hvn't hrd enough 72 77 70 70 73 72 REFUSED 1 - 1 1 1 1 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Favorable 13% 12% 10% 7% 10% Unfavorable 4 4 5 3 4 Mixed 10 14 13 13 11 Hvn't hrd enough 73 68 71 77 75 REFUSED - 1 2 - 1
17. Is your opinion of the - son of former Governor LeRoy Collins, LeRoy Collins Jr., favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 5% 2% 7% 6% 7% 4% Unfavorable 3 3 3 3 3 3 Mixed 5 4 4 8 5 6 Hvn't hrd enough 86 90 86 84 85 88 REFUSED - - - - 1 - North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Favorable 7% 4% 5% 2% 6% Unfavorable 2 2 3 1 4 Mixed 5 8 5 8 3 Hvn't hrd enough 86 86 86 89 86 REFUSED - - - 1 1
18. Is your opinion of - developer Peter Monroe favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 3% 2% 4% 4% 3% 3% Unfavorable 8 6 7 11 8 8 Mixed 6 4 6 8 5 7 Hvn't hrd enough 83 88 83 77 83 83 REFUSED - 1 - - - - North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Favorable 3% 2% 1% - 6% Unfavorable 6 9 8 6 8 Mixed 9 5 6 1 6 Hvn't hrd enough 82 83 84 93 80 REFUSED - - - - -
19. If the 2006 election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Bill Nelson the Democrat and Katherine Harris the Republican for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Nelson 59% 25% 87% 61% 57% 60% Harris 26 57 6 18 28 24 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 3 2 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 1 2 2 2 DK/NA 13 15 6 16 11 14 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Nelson 55% 58% 60% 38% 65% Harris 28 26 25 43 21 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 1 0 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 2 2 2 DK/NA 13 13 12 17 12
TREND: If the 2006 election for United States Senator were being held today, And the candidates were Bill Nelson the Democrat and Katherine Harris the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Jun 30 May 25 Apr 20 Feb 24 Nov 15 Aug 31 Jun 29 2006 2006 2006 2006 2005 2005 2005 Nelson 59 58 56 53 55 57 50 Harris 26 25 27 31 31 33 38 SMONE ELSE 1 1 1 1 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 DK/NA 13 14 14 14 12 9 10
20. If the 2006 election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Bill Nelson the Democrat and William McBride the Republican for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Nelson 56% 23% 87% 58% 54% 58% McBride 25 57 4 14 28 23 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 1 1 DK/NA 17 18 8 25 16 18 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Nelson 51% 53% 59% 36% 65% McBride 29 24 24 39 20 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 2 1 - DK/NA 18 21 15 22 14
21. If the 2006 election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Bill Nelson the Democrat and LeRoy Collins Jr. the Republican for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Nelson 57% 25% 88% 57% 55% 59% Collins 20 45 3 12 23 17 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 3 1 1 2 1 DK/NA 21 26 8 29 20 22 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Nelson 53% 54% 57% 39% 66% Collins 24 19 19 32 15 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 3 2 1 - DK/NA 21 24 20 27 18
22. If the 2006 election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Bill Nelson the Democrat and Peter Monroe the Republican for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Nelson 58% 27% 87% 59% 57% 59% Monroe 21 48 4 12 23 19 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 1 1 2 1 DK/NA 19 22 8 26 17 20 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Nelson 54% 56% 59% 35% 66% Monroe 23 21 19 35 17 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 3 1 - DK/NA 20 20 19 28 16
23. Would you like to see Bill Nelson re-elected Senator, or would you rather see someone else elected Senator?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes/Re-elected 47% 30% 64% 48% 49% 45% No/Someone else 31 44 18 30 34 27 DK/NA 23 27 18 22 17 28 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Yes/Re-elected 44% 46% 45% 40% 53% No/Someone else 34 29 35 39 24 DK/NA 22 25 20 21 23
TREND: Would you like to see Bill Nelson re-elected Senator, or would you rather see someone else elected Senator?
Highest Lowest Jun 30 May 25 Apr 20 Nov 15 Aug 31 May 25 Apr 14 2006 2006 2006 2005 2005 2006 2005 Re-elected 47 48 44 37 38 48 35 Smone Else 31 31 32 33 35 31 37 DK/NA 23 21 23 29 27 21 28
29. Have any hurricanes during the last two years done any serious damage to the area where you live?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 60% 60% 59% 63% 64% 56% No 40 40 41 37 36 43 DK/NA - - - - - - North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Yes 40% 28% 65% 71% 86% No 60 72 34 29 13 DK/NA - - 1 - -
30. Have any hurricanes during the last two years cost you money through repairs that were not covered by your insurance?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 42% 45% 39% 47% 43% 41% No 57 55 60 52 56 58 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 1 1 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Yes 29% 21% 47% 42% 61% No 70 77 53 58 38 DK/NA 1 3 - - 1
30a. (If 'yes' q30)How much were these costs?
COSTLY REPAIRS Q30......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Less than $500 11% 15% 9% 10% 12% 9% $500 to $999 16 13 16 16 14 17 $1,000 to $5000 45 49 48 40 47 43 More than $5,000 27 23 24 32 26 28 DK/NA 2 1 2 2 - 3
31. Have your home and auto insurance costs gone up in the last two years?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 77 78 77 78 78 76 No 19 19 20 18 19 20 CANCELLED BY INSURANCE COMPANY(VOL) 1 - 1 1 - 1 DK/NA 3 3 2 3 3 4 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Yes 69 78 78 80 80 No 28 18 19 16 16 CANCELLED BY INSURANCE COMPANY(VOL) - - - - 2 DK/NA 3 4 3 3 2
31a. (If 'yes' q31) How much have your insurance costs gone up?
INSURANCE GONE UP Q31...................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Less than $250 25% 24% 24% 26% 23% 26% $250 to $499 31 36 32 26 32 31 $500 to $1,000 22 21 23 20 24 20 More than $1,000 16 13 15 21 16 16 DK/NA 6 6 6 7 5 7 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Less than $250 31% 22% 31% 18% 19% $250 to $499 34 29 35 26 30 $500 to $1,000 23 21 22 32 19 More than $1,000 6 19 8 19 25 DK/NA 5 10 3 6 7
32. Have the hurricanes during the last two years made you more likely to leave when a storm is forecast to hit your area than you were previously?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 38% 35% 45% 36% 33% 42% No 59 62 52 62 63 54 DK/NA 3 3 3 2 3 4 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Yes 49% 30% 34% 44% 38% No 48 68 62 54 57 DK/NA 3 2 3 2 5
37. (If registered republican) If the 2006 Republican primary for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Katherine Harris, LeRoy Collins Jr., Peter Monroe and William McBride for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED REPUBLICANS Tot Men Wom Harris 35% 37% 33% Collins 3 4 3 Monroe 4 2 6 McBride 16 17 15 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 3 2 DK/NA 38 36 40
TREND: (If registered republican) If the 2006 Republican primary for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Katherine Harris, LeRoy Collins Jr., Peter Monroe and William McBride for whom would you vote?
Jun 30 May 25 2006 2006 Harris 35 37 Collins 3 4 Monroe 4 2 McBride 16 13 SMONE ELSE 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE 2 3 DK/NA 38 40