Florida (FL) Poll * October 10, 2006 * Republican Crist Leads In Flor - Quinnipiac University

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October 10, 2006 - Republican Crist Leads In Florida Governor's Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Property Insurance Seen As Biggest Campaign Issue

Florida Attorney General Charlie Crist, the Republican, leads U.S. Rep. Jim Davis, the Democrat, 53 - 43 percent among likely voters, including leaners, in the Florida Governor's race, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Three percent are undecided, and 28 percent who name a candidate say they might change their mind.
Among registered voters, Crist leads 50 - 39 percent, with 9 percent undecided. This compares to a 44 - 38 percent Crist lead in a July 26 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.
Davis leads among Democratic likely voters 74 - 22 percent, while Crist leads 92 - 7 percent among Republicans and 50 - 43 percent among independent voters.
By a 42 - 14 percent margin, Florida voters have a favorable opinion of Crist, with 21 percent mixed and 22 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion.
For Davis, 57 percent haven't heard enough to form an opinion.
"Congressman Jim Davis has a tough road ahead of him and not much time to get there. He hasn't come close to introducing himself to enough Floridians to win. Almost six in 10 voters say they don't know enough about him. Given Crist's large money advantage, Davis must sprint for the next 28 days," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
Among likely voters for Davis, 51 percent say the main reason they back him is his political party, followed by 31 percent who cite his stand on the issues.
For Crist supporters, 56 percent point to his stand on the issues, while 19 percent cite his experience as the main reason they back him.
"The fact that half those who say they are supporting Davis are doing so because of his political party, rather than his personal qualities, experience or position on the issues is not a good sign for him," Brown said.
Given three choices, 58 percent of Florida voters list property insurance as the most important issue in the campaign, followed by 20 percent who list tax cuts and 19 percent who list the FCAT.
Voters split 44 - 43 percent on whether to keep the FCAT requirement for students to be promoted in the third grade and high school, or whether to eliminate it. But voters say 61 - 30 percent that the FCAT should no longer be a factor in school funding.
Voters support 66 - 24 percent raising the Homestead tax exemption level from $25,000 to $50,000. Voters split 46 - 47 percent on whether they want the next Governor to continue the policies of outgoing Gov. Jeb Bush.
"Some good news for Davis is that he has been talking a great deal about the insurance crisis in the state and voters say that is the most important issue," Brown said.
"Perhaps surprising is that given Crist's large lead and embrace of Gov. Jeb Bush, who remains very popular, Florida voters are split on whether they want to continue with the current Governor's policies."
From October 3 - 8, Quinnipiac University surveyed 968 Florida registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percentage points. The survey includes 783 likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Florida, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For additional data-www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks
1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jeb Bush is handling his job as Governor?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Evngel Approve 55% 87% 31% 51% 57% 40% 59% 72% Disapprove 36 9 58 36 34 44 34 19 DK/NA 9 4 11 12 9 16 8 9 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Men Wom Approve 61% 56% 63% 70% 39% 61% 50% Disapprove 30 35 29 16 52 33 38 DK/NA 9 9 8 14 10 6 12
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jeb Bush is handling his job as Governor?
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Oct 10 Jul 26 Jun 29 May 24 Apr 19 Sep 23 Aug 12 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2004 2004 Approve 55 56 57 55 55 62 45 Disapprove 36 35 34 35 36 30 44 DK/NA 9 9 9 9 9 8 11
4. Is your opinion of Congressman Jim Davis favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Evngel Favorable 14% 6% 23% 14% 14% 15% 16% 7% Unfavorable 13 20 8 12 13 11 17 15 Mixed 14 12 14 15 14 20 4 11 Hvn't hrd enough 57 60 54 57 57 51 61 65 REFUSED 1 1 1 2 1 2 2 1 Likely North/ Voters PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Men Wom Favorable 17% 12% 16% 14% 7% 17% 14% 15% Unfavorable 15 11 19 10 12 13 17 10 Mixed 15 10 14 13 18 17 11 17 Hvn't hrd enough 52 67 47 62 61 52 57 57 REFUSED 2 - 4 - 2 1 1 2
TREND: Is your opinion of Congressman Jim Davis favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Oct 10 Jul 26 Jun 29 May 24 Apr 19 Feb 22 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 Favorable 14 9 11 9 10 11 Unfavorable 13 4 4 3 4 3 Mixed 14 9 10 8 9 7 Hvn't hrd enough 57 76 74 78 75 77 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 1
5. Is your opinion of Attorney General Charlie Crist favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Evngel Favorable 42% 63% 29% 37% 45% 35% 31% 54% Unfavorable 14 3 21 17 15 13 8 6 Mixed 21 18 23 22 21 20 22 21 Hvn't hrd enough 22 16 26 23 19 31 37 18 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 - 2 2 Likely North/ Voters PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Men Wom Favorable 46% 47% 44% 43% 55% 32% 46% 38% Unfavorable 16 8 12 12 14 21 14 14 Mixed 20 22 21 17 14 25 17 24 Hvn't hrd enough 16 21 21 27 16 22 21 23 REFUSED 1 1 2 1 2 - 1 1
TREND: Is your opinion of Attorney General Charlie Crist favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Oct 10 Jul 26 Jun 29 May 24 Apr 19 Feb 22 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 Favorable 42 36 34 34 33 31 Unfavorable 14 11 12 9 8 8 Mixed 21 15 17 14 13 13 Hvn't hrd enough 22 36 37 43 45 47 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 2
6. If the 2006 election for governor were being held today and the candidates were Jim Davis the Democrat and Charlie Crist the Republican, for whom would you vote?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Evngel Davis 39% 5% 72% 39% 36% 67% 38% 21% Crist 50 88 20 45 53 20 50 69 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 1 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - - 1 1 - - 1 DK/NA 9 6 7 14 9 11 12 8 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Men Wom Davis 30% 39% 38% 26% 51% 39% 40% Crist 57 48 52 68 39 54 46 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 - - 2 - 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 - - 1 0 DK/NA 11 10 9 6 8 7 12
TREND: If the 2006 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Jim Davis the Democrat and Charlie Crist the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Oct 10 Jul 26 Jun 29 May 24 Apr 19 Feb 22 Nov 15 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2005 Davis 39 38 39 40 39 36 40 Crist 50 44 41 37 37 40 39 SMONE ELSE 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 DK/NA 9 16 18 19 20 22 19
6. If the 2006 election for governor were being held today and the candidates were Jim Davis the Democrat and Charlie Crist the Republican, for whom would you vote?(If undecided 6) As of today, do you lean more toward Davis or Crist? This table includes Leaners.
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evngel Davis 43% 7% 74% 43% 38% 48% 25% Crist 53 92 22 50 59 48 73 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 1 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - DK/NA 3 1 3 6 3 4 1 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Davis 35% 42% 42% 25% 56% Crist 59 54 57 72 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 2 - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - DK/NA 5 2 2 3 4
6a. (If candidate choice given q6)Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
LIKELY CHOOSING CAND Q6 CAND OF CHOICE Q6 Tot JD CC Made up 71% 70% 73% Might change 28 30 27 DK/NA - - -
7. (Davis supporters) What is the main reason you support Davis? Is it because of his experience, his personal qualities, his stand on the issues or his political party?
DAVIS SUPPORTERS... LIKELY VOTERS...... Tot Men Wom Experience 6% 7% 5% Personal qual 2 2 2 Stand on issues 31 25 35 Political party 51 55 47 OTHER(VOL) 7 7 6 DK/NA 4 4 4
8. (Crist supporters) What is the main reason you support Crist? Is it because of his experience, his personal qualities, his stand on the issues or his political party?
CRIST SUPPORTERS... LIKELY VOTERS...... Tot Men Wom Experience 19% 21% 17% Personal qual 6 7 5 Stand on issues 56 55 58 Political party 12 10 14 OTHER(VOL) 4 5 4 DK/NA 3 2 3
14. Would you like to see the next governor of Florida generally continue with Jeb Bush's policies or change direction from Jeb Bush's policies?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Evngel Cont JB policies 46% 81% 22% 40% 49% 19% 54% 63% Change direction 47 13 74 50 44 73 41 30 DK/NA 7 6 4 10 7 7 5 7 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Men Wom Cont JB policies 50% 46% 49% 69% 34% 55% 38% Change direction 42 47 43 22 59 40 52 DK/NA 8 7 8 9 7 5 10
15a. In the campaign for governor, three issues have been prominent. Which of the following three issues do you consider the most important? The status of the FCAT, the need for further tax cuts, or the escalating cost of property insurance?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Evngel FCAT 19% 13% 26% 19% 16% 36% 26% 13% Tax cuts 20 24 19 17 21 16 23 26 Property ins 58 60 54 60 61 47 47 58 OTHER (VOL) 1 2 - - 1 - 4 1 DK/NA 1 1 1 3 2 1 - 2 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Men Wom FCAT 26% 16% 23% 11% 16% 15% 23% Tax cuts 24 16 24 15 19 25 16 Property ins 47 65 52 72 62 58 58 OTHER (VOL) 1 1 - 1 2 - 2 DK/NA 1 3 1 1 1 1 2
15b. Which do you consider the second most important? The status of the FCAT, the need for further tax cuts, or the escalating cost of property insurance?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Evngel FCAT 25% 19% 31% 24% 24% 33% 19% 25% Tax cuts 41 49 35 41 44 32 41 43 Property ins 31 30 32 32 29 33 37 30 OTHER (VOL) 1 - 1 1 - 2 - - DK/NA 1 1 2 2 2 - 1 1 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Men Wom FCAT 24% 24% 22% 25% 30% 27% 24% Tax cuts 35 47 36 51 43 40 42 Property ins 38 25 38 24 26 30 31 OTHER (VOL) 2 1 1 - - 1 1 DK/NA 1 2 2 - 1 2 1
16. For public school students in Florida to be promoted from third to fourth grade and to graduate high school, they must pass the FCAT. Do you support the present FCAT requirement or do you want to eliminate it?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Evngel Support requirement 44% 59% 34% 40% 42% 47% 50% 49% Eliminate it 43 29 52 46 42 44 44 38 DK/NA 13 13 14 15 15 9 7 14 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Men Wom Support requirement 46% 43% 42% 42% 44% 49% 39% Eliminate it 44 46 44 31 42 38 47 DK/NA 10 10 14 27 14 13 14
TREND: For public school students to be promoted from third to fourth grade and to graduate high school, they must pass the FCAT. Some candidates for governor want to eliminate those requirements. Do you support the present FCAT requirement or do you want to eliminate it? * does not include sentence, "Some candidates for governor ..."
Oct 10 Jun 29 Apr 19 2006* 2006 2006 Support requirement 44 48 47 Eliminate it 43 44 45 DK/NA 13 9 8
17. Public schools in Florida are graded based on the scores their students achieve on the FCAT. The grade that a school gets affects how much money the school gets. Do you think the system of grading schools based on the FCAT should be continued or not?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Evngel Yes 30% 49% 20% 26% 31% 27% 33% 40% No 61 42 70 67 60 68 58 49 DK/NA 8 9 10 8 9 5 9 11 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Men Wom Yes 35% 26% 29% 31% 30% 34% 27% No 55 67 65 54 61 57 65 DK/NA 9 7 6 15 9 9 8
TREND: Public schools in Florida are graded based on the scores their students achieve on the FCAT. The grade that a school gets affects how much money the school gets. Do you think the system of grading schools based on the FCAT should be continued or not?
Oct 10 Jun 29 Apr 19 2006 2006 2006 Yes 30 33 31 No 61 60 63 DK/NA 8 8 7
18. Florida homeowners who qualify for the Homestead tax exemption currently pay property taxes on $25,000 less than their home's assessed value. One candidate for governor has proposed doubling the exemption to $50,000 less than a home's assessed property value. Do you support or oppose that proposal?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Evngel Support 66% 76% 64% 62% 68% 57% 62% 74% Oppose 24 15 28 25 23 31 20 16 DK/NA 10 10 8 13 9 13 19 10 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Men Wom Support 59% 69% 66% 67% 68% 67% 65% Oppose 29 19 23 23 25 24 24 DK/NA 12 12 11 10 7 10 11