Florida (FL) Poll * October 11, 2006 * Nelson Leads Harris 61 - 33 In - Quinnipiac University

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October 11, 2006 - Nelson Leads Harris 61 - 33 In Florida Senate Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters Say U.S. Is Losing The War In Iraq

In the Florida Senate race, Democratic incumbent U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson has a commanding 61 - 33 percent lead over U.S. Rep. Katherine Harris among likely voters, including leaners, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Six percent are undecided and 18 percent of likely voters who name a candidate say they could change their mind in the next four weeks.
Sen. Nelson leads Rep. Harris 56 - 31 percent among registered voters, with 11 percent undecided. This compares to a 61 - 24 percent Nelson lead in a July 27 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.
In this latest survey, Republican likely voters back Harris 67 - 27 percent, while Democrats back Nelson 85 - 10 percent and independent voters back Nelson 65 - 26 percent.
"Congresswoman Harris has made some progress in her race against Sen. Nelson, but with four weeks until the election, it isn't nearly enough to make her a serious threat to the incumbent," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"Floridians, by almost a two-to-one margin, still view her unfavorably - an indication of just how difficult a task she faces. In order to win, she'll have to convince Floridians she is not who they think she is."
Only 20 percent of Florida voters have a favorable opinion of Harris, with 37 percent unfavorable, 16 percent mixed and 26 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion.
Nelson gets a 31 - 12 percent favorability, with 19 percent mixed and 38 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion.
"For a politician who has held statewide office for more than a decade, Sen. Nelson's profile is surprisingly fuzzy. Four in 10 voters say they need to know more about him before they can decide if they view him favorably or unfavorably," Brown said.
"But it doesn't matter because Congresswoman Harris is so weak. She is losing a quarter of the Republican vote and more than 60 percent of the independent vote and getting only half of the white evangelical vote - a recipe for electoral disaster for a Republican in Florida."
Bush Approval
Florida voters disapprove 59 - 37 percent of the job President George W. Bush is doing. Voters say 55 - 28 percent that the U.S. is losing the war in Iraq, and 44 - 39 percent that the U.S. is losing the war on worldwide terrorism.
From October 3 - 8, Quinnipiac University surveyed 968 Florida registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percentage points. The survey includes 783 likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Florida, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For additional data-www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks
2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Nelson is handling his job as United States Senator?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Evngel Approve 43% 38% 53% 39% 44% 44% 34% 41% Disapprove 26 33 19 28 25 32 28 29 DK/NA 31 29 28 33 31 24 38 30 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Men Wom Approve 45% 41% 49% 45% 37% 47% 39% Disapprove 25 29 24 24 27 26 26 DK/NA 30 30 27 31 36 27 35
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Nelson is handling his job as United States Senator? (*Also 50% on 4/14/05 & 2/25/05)
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Oct 11 Jul 27 Jun 30 May 25 Apr 20 Apr 20 Aug 12 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006* 2004 Approve 43 44 45 49 50 50 42 Disapprove 26 25 23 23 19 19 18 DK/NA 31 30 32 27 30 30 40
3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Evngel Approve 37% 76% 10% 31% 41% 17% 36% 60% Disapprove 59 22 88 64 56 80 60 35 DK/NA 4 3 2 5 3 3 4 4 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Men Wom Approve 46% 44% 37% 47% 25% 42% 33% Disapprove 52 52 58 48 72 54 63 DK/NA 1 4 6 5 3 3 4
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Oct 11 Jul 27 Jun 29 May 24 Apr 20 Sep 23 Apr 20 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2004 2006 Approve 37 39 38 36 35 50 35 Disapprove 59 58 60 60 60 47 60 DK/NA 4 3 3 3 5 3 5
9. Is your opinion of United States Senator Bill Nelson favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Evngel Favorable 31% 20% 41% 32% 34% 28% 14% 27% Unfavorable 12 20 6 11 13 7 11 18 Mixed 19 23 17 18 19 16 26 21 Hvn't hrd 38 36 36 38 34 49 48 35 REFUSED 1 1 - 1 1 - 1 - Likely North/ Voters PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Men Wom Favorable 36 32% 25% 40% 32% 26% 33% 29% Unfavorable 14 12 16 11 17 8 15 9 Mixed 18 17 20 10 15 26 15 22 Hvn't hrd 31 38 38 38 36 37 35 39 REFUSED 1 - 1 1 - 2 1 1
TREND: Is your opinion of United States Senator Bill Nelson favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Oct 11 Jul 27 Jun 30 May 25 Apr 20 Feb 24 Aug 31 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2005 Favorable 31 40 40 37 40 37 35 Unfavorable 12 12 11 10 10 11 8 Mixed 19 19 20 18 19 17 24 Hvn't hrd enough 38 28 29 33 31 34 31 REFUSED 1 1 1 2 1 2 1
10. Is your opinion of Congresswoman Katherine Harris favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about her?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Evngel Favorable 20% 31% 8% 20% 19% 15% 29% 31% Unfavorable 37 20 49 44 41 27 17 24 Mixed 16 26 11 14 17 15 18 17 Hvn't hrd 26 23 31 21 22 43 35 28 REFUSED 1 - 1 1 1 - - 1 Likely North/ Voters PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Men Wom Favorable 21 22% 20% 23% 29% 13% 23% 16% Unfavorable 41 31 36 36 38 43 34 40 Mixed 16 20 21 12 15 14 16 17 Hvn't hrd 21 27 23 29 18 28 26 26 REFUSED 1 - - - - 2 1 1
TREND: Is your opinion of Congresswoman Katherine Harris favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about her?
Oct 11 Jul 27 Jun 30 May 25 Apr 20 Feb 24 Aug 31 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2005 Favorable 20 18 20 20 17 26 22 Unfavorable 37 39 34 39 37 27 30 Mixed 16 16 15 16 15 13 15 Hvn't hrd enough 26 25 29 24 30 32 32 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 - 1 1
11. If the 2006 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Bill Nelson the Democrat and Katherine Harris the Republican, for whom would you vote?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Evngel Nelson 56% 22% 84% 58% 56% 75% 32% 39% Harris 31 61 9 25 32 16 44 47 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 2 1 1 4 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 4 - - 2 - - 2 DK/NA 11 12 5 16 10 5 24 11 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Men Wom Nelson 48% 53% 55% 56% 62% 55% 56% Harris 38 33 34 37 21 37 26 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 2 1 - 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 1 2 1 1 2 DK/NA 13 11 8 5 13 7 14
TREND: If the 2006 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Bill Nelson the Democrat and Katherine Harris the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Oct 11 Jul 27 Jun 30 May 25 Apr 20 Feb 24 Nov 15 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2005 Nelson 56 61 59 58 56 53 55 Harris 31 24 26 25 27 31 31 SMONE ELSE 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE 1 2 2 2 2 1 1 DK/NA 11 11 13 14 14 14 12
11. If the 2006 election for senator were being held today and the candidates were Bill Nelson the Democrat and Katherine Harris the Republican, for whom would you vote?(If undecided q11) As of today, do you lean more toward Nelson or Harris? This table includes Leaners.
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evngel Nelson 61% 27% 85% 65% 58% 64% 41% Harris 33 67 10 26 39 27 50 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - DK/NA 6 6 5 9 4 9 9 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Nelson 53% 57% 60% 57% 71% Harris 40 38 34 40 21 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - DK/NA 7 5 6 3 8
11a. (If candidate choice given q11)Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
LIKELY CHOOSING CAND Q11 CAND OF CHOICE Q11 Tot BN KH Made up 81% 83% 76% Might change 18 16 23 DK/NA 1 1 1
12. (Nelson supporters) Is your vote more for Nelson or more against Harris?
NELSON SUPPORTERS.. LIKELY VOTERS...... Tot Men Wom For Nelson 55% 61% 50% Against Harris 38 33 41 DK/NA 8 6 9
13. (Harris supporters) Is your vote more for Harris or more against Nelson?
HARRIS SUPPORTERS LIKELY VOTERS.... Tot Men Wom For Harris 64% 62% 67% Against Nelson 28 30 26 DK/NA 8 8 7
19. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the situation with Iraq?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Evngel Approve 34% 72% 9% 26% 38% 12% 36% 56% Disapprove 61 22 88 68 57 86 56 37 DK/NA 5 7 3 6 5 3 8 7 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Men Wom Approve 43% 40% 34% 39% 23% 41% 29% Disapprove 50 55 62 55 72 55 65 DK/NA 7 5 4 6 4 4 6
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the situation with Iraq?
Oct 11 Jun 29 May 24 Apr 20 Feb 24 Nov 16 Aug 31 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2005 2005 Approve 34 36 36 34 41 31 39 Disapprove 61 59 60 63 54 64 55 DK/NA 5 5 4 4 5 5 6
20. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Evngel Right thing 37% 71% 12% 31% 41% 8% 43% 55% Wrong thing 58 22 85 63 53 90 55 36 DK/NA 6 6 3 7 6 2 2 8 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Men Wom Right thing 48% 41% 33% 44% 27% 44% 30% Wrong thing 48 50 59 51 70 54 61 DK/NA 4 9 8 4 3 2 9
TREND: Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?
Oct 11 Jun 29 May 24 Apr 20 Feb 24 Aug 31 Oct 28 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2005 2004 Right thing 37 38 37 36 42 41 48 Wrong thing 58 55 58 58 51 53 44 DK/NA 6 6 5 6 6 6 8
21. Is the United States winning or losing the war in Iraq?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Evngel Winning 28% 57% 9% 21% 30% 9% 41% 43% Losing 55 22 79 61 52 88 41 33 DK/NA 17 21 13 18 18 3 18 24 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Men Wom Winning 35% 38% 26% 35% 17% 37% 21% Losing 50 41 53 45 71 51 58 DK/NA 15 21 21 20 12 12 21
22. Is the United States winning or losing the war on worldwide terrorism?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Evngel Winning 39% 66% 20% 34% 40% 22% 43% 52% Losing 44 19 65 45 41 64 45 28 DK/NA 17 15 15 21 18 14 12 20 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Men Wom Winning 45% 46% 36% 41% 31% 46% 32% Losing 38 36 45 34 56 41 47 DK/NA 17 18 19 25 13 13 21