Florida (FL) Poll * October 25, 2006 * Nelson Leads Harris 64 - 29% I - Quinnipiac University

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October 25, 2006 - Nelson Leads Harris 64 - 29% In Florida Senate Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters Want Democrats To Control Congress

In the Florida Senate race, Democratic incumbent U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson has widened an already strong lead over his Republican challenger, U.S. Rep. Katherine Harris, to 64 - 29 percent among likely voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Seven percent remain undecided and 10 percent of those who name a candidate say they might change their mind by Election Day.
This compares to a 61 - 33 percent Sen. Nelson lead in an October 11 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.
In this latest survey, Nelson leads across virtually all demographic groups and regions, even gathering 33 percent of Republican voters to Harris' 62 percent. Nelson leads 91 - 4 percent among Democrats and 66 - 23 percent among independent voters.
"Sen. Nelson can sleep very well at night. It would be hard to think of a previous election in which a U.S. Senate candidate was up 35 points with two weeks to go and lost the election," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
Rep. Harris remains unpopular with Florida voters. Only 19 percent view her favorably; 43 percent unfavorably. By comparison, 51 percent of Floridians view Nelson favorably, and only 15 percent unfavorably.
"Often challengers for statewide office who are not known find themselves behind because of the difficulty in getting their names out in a state as large as Florida. Rep. Harris hasn't had that problem. Her problem is that most Floridians have a set view of her and for most it is a negative one," Brown said.
Although Rep. Harris's negatives are high, most of those backing Nelson - 58 percent - say they are voting for him, not against her. Among Harris voters, 62 percent say they are voting for her, not against him.
"Clearly President George W. Bush and his brother, Gov. Jeb Bush, knew what they were doing when they tried to find another Republican candidate to run against Sen. Nelson," said Brown. President Bush's Approval
Florida voters disapprove 58 - 36 percent of the job President Bush is doing.
By a 52 - 35 percent margin, voters say they prefer the Democrats rather than the Republicans to control Congress after the November 7 elections.
And, by a 45 - 18 percent margin, Florida voters say the record of the Bush administration and the Republican-led Congress make them less likely to vote for GOP candidates running for office in Florida.
From October 18 - 22, Quinnipiac University surveyed 816 Florida likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Florida, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For additional data-www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks
2. If the 2006 election for senator were being held today and the candidates were Bill Nelson the Democrat and Katherine Harris the Republican, for whom would you vote?(If undecided q2) As of today, do you lean more toward Nelson or Harris? This table includes Leaners.
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evngel Nelson 64% 33% 91% 66% 55% 73% 44% Harris 29 62 4 23 36 22 53 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 1 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - DK/NA 7 5 5 10 8 5 3 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Nelson 53% 66% 60% 54% 77% Harris 37 27 30 42 19 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - DK/NA 9 6 9 4 4
TREND: If the 2006 election for senator were being held today and the candidates were Bill Nelson the Democrat and Katherine Harris the Republican, for whom would you vote?(If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Nelson or Harris? This table includes Leaners.
LIKELY VOTERS Oct 25 Oct 11 2006 2006 Nelson 64 61 Harris 29 33 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - DK/NA 7 6
2a. (If candidate choice q2) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
LIKELY CHOOSING CAND Q2.. CAND OF CHOICE Q2 Tot BN KH Made up 89% 90% 86% Might change 10 9 13 DK/NA 1 1 1
TREND: (If candidate choice)Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
LIKELY VOTERS Oct 25 Oct 11 2006 2006 Made up 89 81 Might change 10 18 DK/NA 1 1
3. (If Nelson supporter) Is your vote more for Nelson or more against Harris?
NELSON SUPPORTERS............... LIKELY VOTERS................... WtBrnAgn Tot Men Wom Evngel For Nelson 58% 54% 61% 57% Against Harris 36 40 33 37 DK/NA 6 6 6 6
TREND: (Nelson supporters) Is your vote more for Nelson or more against Harris?
NELSON SUPPORTERS.. LIKELY VOTERS...... Oct 25 Oct 11 2006 2006 For Nelson 58 55 Against Harris 36 38 DK/NA 6 8
4. (If Harris supporter) Is your vote more for Harris or more against Nelson?
HARRIS SUPPORTERS............... LIKELY VOTERS................... WtBrnAgn Tot Men Wom Evngel For Harris 62% 61% 64% 66% Against Nelson 31 32 30 24 DK/NA 7 7 7 10
TREND: (Harris supporters) Is your vote more for Harris or more against Nelson?
HARRIS SUPPORTERS LIKELY VOTERS.... Oct 25 Oct 11 2006 2006 For Harris 62 64 Against Nelson 31 28 DK/NA 7 8
5. Is your opinion of Bill Nelson favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evngel Favorable 51% 28% 72% 50% 48% 54% 37% Unfavorable 15 30 3 14 21 10 23 Mixed 18 28 8 19 18 18 23 Hvn't hrd enough 14 12 14 16 12 16 15 REFUSED 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Favorable 47% 49% 49% 39% 60% Unfavorable 17 15 15 25 11 Mixed 16 17 22 15 16 Hvn't hrd enough 17 17 12 13 12 REFUSED 2 1 2 8 1
TREND: Is your opinion of Bill Nelson favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS Oct 25 Oct 11 2006 2006 Favorable 51 36 Unfavorable 15 14 Mixed 18 18 Hvn't hrd 14 31 REFUSED 2 1
6. Is your opinion of Katherine Harris favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about her?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evngel Favorable 19% 42% 5% 13% 25% 15% 39% Unfavorable 43 20 57 50 40 45 22 Mixed 17 24 8 20 18 16 19 Hvn't hrd enough 19 11 28 16 16 22 20 REFUSED 2 2 2 1 1 2 - North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Favorable 27% 21% 15% 37% 13% Unfavorable 32 51 39 40 49 Mixed 13 16 26 13 13 Hvn't hrd enough 27 12 19 8 23 REFUSED 1 - 1 2 3
TREND: Is your opinion of Katherine Harris favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about her?
LIKELY VOTERS Oct 25 Oct 11 2006 2006 Favorable 19 21 Unfavorable 43 41 Mixed 17 16 Hvn't hrd 19 21 REFUSED 2 1
12. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evngel Approve 36% 74% 7% 29% 44% 29% 60% Disapprove 58 19 88 63 48 66 33 DK/NA 6 7 5 8 8 5 8 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Approve 47% 36% 38% 50% 23% Disapprove 45 54 56 44 73 DK/NA 7 10 6 6 4
13. What is your preference for the outcome of the November 2006 congressional elections a Congress controlled by Republicans or a Congress controlled by Democrats?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evngel Republicans 35% 78% 4% 26% 44% 26% 60% Democrats 52 13 86 52 43 59 27 DK/NA 14 9 10 23 13 14 13 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Republicans 46% 38% 34% 50% 22% Democrats 41 50 46 41 67 DK/NA 13 12 19 8 11
14. Does the record of President Bush's administration and the Republicans who control Congress make you more likely to vote for Republicans running for office in Florida, less likely to vote for Republicans running for office in Florida, or doesn't it make a difference?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evngel More likely 18% 39% 3% 13% 23% 13% 28% Less likely 45 11 71 49 36 52 27 No difference 33 46 22 34 35 31 41 DK/NA 5 5 4 4 6 3 4 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE More likely 22% 13% 23% 24% 12% Less likely 38 46 36 38 57 No difference 30 41 38 29 27 DK/NA 10 - 3 10 3