New Jersey (NJ) Poll * April 19, 2007 * Giuliani Has Same Lead Over An - Quinnipiac University

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April 19, 2007 - Giuliani Has Same Lead Over Any Dem In New Jersey, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Moving Primary Has Little Impact On Voters

Former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani has almost the same lead over any of the top Democratic contenders in New Jersey, leading New York Sen. Hillary Clinton 49 - 40 percent; leading Illinois Sen. Barack Obama 48 - 38 percent, and leading 2004 vice presidential candidate John Edwards 48 - 41 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
In other possible 2008 presidential matchups, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN- uh-pe-ack) University poll finds:
Sen. Clinton tops Arizona Sen. John McCain 45 - 41 percent; Clinton tops former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney 50 - 31 percent; Obama edges McCain 43 - 41 percent; Obama beats Romney 50 - 26 percent; Edwards gets 42 percent to McCain's 41 percent; Edwards tops Romney 51 - 26 percent.
"It makes no difference who the Democrats put up, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama or John Edwards, former Mayor Giuliani continues to knock out all challengers in the New Jersey presidential race," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"Giuliani has lost some support among Republicans but no other member of his party comes close to challenging him for the GOP nomination in New Jersey."
"The good news for Sen. Clinton is that for the first time she is now the clear favorite over a weakened Sen. John McCain in New Jersey and her favorability rating is up slightly," Richards added.
Obama has gained no ground among New Jersey Democrats, where Clinton leads a primary matchup with 38 percent, followed by Obama with 16 percent, former Vice President Al Gore with 12 percent, Edwards with 9 percent and Delaware Sen. Joseph Biden with 3 percent.
Giuliani leads a Republican primary with 49 percent, down from 58 percent March 1, followed by McCain with 18 percent, compared to 15 percent March 1. Former Senator and Law & Order actor Fred Thompson gets 6 percent, with 5 percent for Romney and 4 percent for former House Speaker Newt Gingrich.
New Jersey voters give Giuliani a 62 - 27 percent favorability rating. Favorability ratings for other contenders are:
49 - 43 percent for Clinton; 52 - 24 percent for McCain; 48 - 15 percent for Obama; 53 - 22 percent for Edwards; For Romney, 65 percent haven't heard enough to form an opinion; For Thompson 71 percent haven't heard enough.
New Jersey voters approve 54 - 19 percent of the law to move the state's 2008 presidential primary election to February 5. But only 37 percent of voters say the earlier date will make them more likely to vote in the primary.
From April 10 - 16, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,424 New Jersey voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points. The survey includes 460 Republicans, with a margin of error of +/- 4.6 percentage points, and 504 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4.4 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and nationally as a public service and for research. For more data -- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x271.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.
1. (If registered Democrat) If the 2008 Democratic primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden, Wesley Clark, Hillary Clinton, Chris Dodd, John Edwards, Al Gore, Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich, Barack Obama and Bill Richardson for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED DEMOCRATS Tot Men Wom Biden 3% 4% 3% Clark 1 1 - Clinton 38 32 42 Dodd - - - Edwards 9 11 8 Gore 12 14 10 Gravel - - - Kucinich - - - Obama 16 18 15 Richardson 2 3 2 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 4 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 1 - DK/NA 16 12 19
TREND: (If registered Democrat) If the 2008 Democratic primary for President were being held today and the candidates were Joe Biden, Wesley Clark, Hillary Clinton, Chris Dodd, John Edwards, Al Gore, Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich, Barack Obama, and Bill Richardson, for whom would you vote? (na = not asked)
REGISTERED DEMOCRATS.. Apr 19 Mar 1 Jan 25 2007 2007 2007 Biden 3 3 6 Clark 1 1 2 Clinton 38 41 30 Dodd - - - Edwards 9 5 8 Gore 12 10 11 Gravel - na na Kucinich - 1 - Obama 16 19 16 Richardson 2 1 1 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 2 1 DK/NA 16 15 17
2. (If candidate choice given q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary?
REGISTERED DEMOCRATS.......... CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1 Tot Clinton Gore Obama Made up 35% 43% 25% 43% Might change 64 56 74 56 DK/NA 1 1 1 1
3. (If registered Republican) If the 2008 Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Sam Brownback, Jim Gilmore, Newt Gingrich, Rudy Giuliani, Chuck Hagel, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, John McCain, George Pataki, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, Tom Tancredo, Fred Thompson and Tommy Thompson for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED REPUBLICANS Tot Men Wom Brownback 1% 1% 1% Gilmore - - 1 Gingrich 4 5 3 Giuliani 49 43 54 Hagel - 1 - Huckabee - - - Hunter - 1 - McCain 18 23 13 Pataki 2 3 2 Paul - - - Romney 5 5 5 Tancredo 1 1 - Thompson, F. 6 8 3 Thompson, T. 1 2 1 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 2 DK/NA 10 7 13
TREND: (If registered Republican) If the 2008 Republican primary for President were being held today and the candidates were Sam Brownback, Jim Gilmore, Newt Gingrich, Rudy Giuliani, Chuck Hagel, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, John McCain, George Pataki, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, Tom Tancredo, Fred Thompson, and Tommy Thompson, for whom would you vote? (na = not asked)
REGISTERED REPUBLICANS Apr 19 Mar 1 Jan 25 2007 2007 2007 Brownback 1 - 1 Gilmore - 1 1 Gingrich 4 5 11 Giuliani 49 58 39 Hagel - 1 1 Huckabee - - 1 Hunter - - 1 McCain 18 15 21 Pataki 2 1 3 Paul - - na Romney 5 2 5 Tancredo 1 1 na Thompson, F. 6 na na Thompson, T. 1 - - SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 3 DK/NA 10 10 13
4. (If candidate choice given q3) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary?
REGISTERED REPUBLICANS........ CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q3 Tot Giuliani McCain Made up 33% 40% 25% Might change 66 57 75 DK/NA 2 2 -
5. Do you approve or disapprove of moving the New Jersey Presidential primary election up to February 5th, 2008?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 54% 53% 61% 51% 59% 50% Disapprove 19 21 18 19 19 19 DK/NA 27 26 21 30 22 31
6. Will the fact that New Jersey has moved its primary election for President to February 5th, 2008, make you more likely to vote in the primary or not?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 37% 39% 43% 31% 37% 38% No 53 53 47 57 55 51 DK/NA 10 8 9 12 9 11
7. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Clinton 40% 3% 74% 35% 34% 46% Giuliani 49 94 17 51 56 42 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 3 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 3 2 2 2 DK/NA 8 2 7 9 6 9
TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Apr 19 Mar 1 Jan 25 2007 2007 2007 Clinton 40 41 41 Giuliani 49 50 48 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 2 DK/NA 8 6 8
8. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Obama 38% 5% 69% 32% 34% 42% Giuliani 48 89 18 51 54 43 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 3 3 3 2 DK/NA 10 4 9 13 9 11
TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Apr 19 Mar 1 2007 2007 Obama 38 39 Giuliani 48 50 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 DK/NA 10 9
9. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were John Edwards the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican,for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Edwards 41% 5% 75% 34% 37% 44% Giuliani 48 90 17 52 54 43 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 1 2 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 2 1 DK/NA 8 3 6 11 6 10
10. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Clinton 45% 7% 79% 39% 38% 50% McCain 41 86 10 43 49 35 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 1 4 3 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 2 3 2 3 DK/NA 9 4 8 12 8 11
TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Apr 19 Mar 1 Jan 25 2007 2007 2007 Clinton 45 45 43 McCain 41 45 44 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 2 DK/NA 9 6 10
11. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Obama 43% 14% 74% 36% 37% 48% McCain 41 76 14 44 48 34 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 3 3 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 2 2 3 2 DK/NA 11 5 8 16 9 13
TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Apr 19 Mar 1 Jan 25 2007 2007 2007 Obama 43 45 39 McCain 41 41 42 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 2 DK/NA 11 10 15
12. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were John Edwards the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Edwards 42% 8% 77% 34% 37% 47% McCain 41 82 12 43 47 35 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 3 1 4 5 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 1 4 3 2 DK/NA 11 5 8 15 8 14
TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today and the candidates were John Edwards the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Apr 19 Jan 25 2007 2007 Edwards 42 39 McCain 41 45 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 DK/NA 11 12
13. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Clinton 50% 12% 83% 46% 46% 54% Romney 31 73 5 30 37 27 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 3 1 4 5 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 3 4 3 3 DK/NA 12 9 7 15 9 15
TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Apr 19 Jan 25 2007 2007 Clinton 50 53 Romney 31 29 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 DK/NA 12 13
14. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Obama 50% 17% 80% 48% 49% 51% Romney 26 66 4 21 31 22 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 3 2 4 4 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 2 3 5 4 4 DK/NA 17 11 11 22 12 21
15. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were John Edwards the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Edwards 51% 14% 82% 50% 48% 53% Romney 26 67 2 23 31 20 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 2 1 4 4 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 3 4 4 3 DK/NA 17 15 12 20 12 21
TREND:. Is your opinion of -- favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him/her? na = not asked Score = Favorable (Haven't Heard Enough)
Apr 19 Mar 1 Jan 25 2007 2007 2007 Clinton, Hillary 49( 5) 47( 8) 53( 6) Edwards, John 53(21) na 44(30) Giuliani, Rudy 62( 9) 66(12) 63(12) McCain, John 52(20) 48(25) 52(21) Obama, Barack 48(34) 42(45) 41(49) Romney, Mitt 16(65) na 11(76) Thompson, Fred 18(71) na na
16. Is your opinion of -- Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 49% 13% 80% 45% 44% 53% Unfavorable 43 82 13 45 48 38 Hvn't hrd enough 5 3 5 4 4 6 REFUSED 3 2 2 6 4 3
TREND: Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
Apr 19 Mar 1 Jan 25 2007 2007 2007 Favorable 49 47 53 Unfavorable 43 43 38 Hvn't hrd enough 5 8 6 REFUSED 3 2 2
17. Is your opinion of -- John Edwards favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 53% 30% 73% 51% 49% 56% Unfavorable 22 50 5 22 32 14 Hvn't hrd enough 21 17 20 23 15 27 REFUSED 3 3 3 4 4 3
TREND: Is your opinion of John Edwards favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Apr 19 Jan 25 2007 2007 Favorable 53 44 Unfavorable 22 23 Hvn't hrd enough 21 30 REFUSED 3 2
18. Is your opinion of -- Rudy Giuliani favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 62% 90% 43% 61% 64% 60% Unfavorable 27 7 42 26 26 27 Hvn't hrd enough 9 2 11 8 6 11 REFUSED 3 1 4 4 4 2
TREND: Is your opinion of Rudy Giuliani favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Apr 19 Mar 1 Jan 25 2007 2007 2007 Favorable 62 66 63 Unfavorable 27 20 24 Hvn't hrd enough 9 12 12 REFUSED 3 2 1
19. Is your opinion of -- John McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 52% 72% 38% 53% 59% 45% Unfavorable 24 13 34 24 25 23 Hvn't hrd enough 20 13 24 19 12 28 REFUSED 4 2 5 4 4 4
TREND: Is your opinion of John McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Apr 19 Mar 1 Jan 25 2007 2007 2007 Favorable 52 48 52 Unfavorable 24 24 24 Hvn't hrd enough 20 25 21 REFUSED 4 4 2
20. Is your opinion of -- Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 48% 34% 62% 48% 51% 46% Unfavorable 15 31 7 11 18 13 Hvn't hrd enough 34 33 30 37 28 39 REFUSED 2 2 2 4 3 2
TREND: Is your opinion of Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Apr 19 Mar 1 Jan 25 2007 2007 2007 Favorable 48 42 41 Unfavorable 15 11 9 Hvn't hrd enough 34 45 49 REFUSED 2 2 1
21. Is your opinion of -- Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 16% 35% 5% 15% 20% 13% Unfavorable 16 7 21 17 18 14 Hvn't hrd enough 65 56 71 64 58 71 REFUSED 3 2 3 4 4 2
TREND: Is your opinion of Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Apr 19 Jan 25 2007 2007 Favorable 16 11 Unfavorable 16 12 Hvn't hrd enough 65 76 REFUSED 3 1
22. Is your opinion of -- Fred Thompson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 18% 28% 10% 19% 28% 10% Unfavorable 8 6 12 7 9 7 Hvn't hrd enough 71 64 75 71 61 80 REFUSED 3 2 2 2 2 3
23. As you may know, Governor Corzine recently endorsed Hillary Clinton for President. Does Corzine's endorsement of Hillary Clinton make you more likely to vote for her for president, less likely, or doesn't it affect your vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom More likely 6% 2% 10% 7% 5% 7% Less likely 16 30 4 18 17 15 Doesn't affect vote 77 66 84 75 76 77 DK/NA 1 2 2 - 1 1 Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore More likely 15% 6% 2% 7% 4% Less likely 11 16 20 9 22 Doesn't affect vote 72 77 78 84 73 DK/NA 2 1 - 1 2
29. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 25% 61% 7% 20% 28% 23% Disapprove 70 33 91 75 68 72 DK/NA 5 6 2 4 4 5 Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Approve 20% 24% 35% 18% 30% Disapprove 75 73 61 75 65 DK/NA 6 3 4 7 5
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Apr 19 Mar 1 Jan 25 Dec 7 Sep 20 Oct 18 Apr 19 2007 2007 2007 2006 2006 2001 2007 Approve 25 26 26 26 33 90 25 Disapprove 70 70 69 70 64 7 70 DK/NA 5 5 5 4 4 3 5
30. Generally speaking, would you say things in this country are heading in the right direction, or are they off on the wrong track?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Right direction 19% 44% 7% 15% 23% 16% Wrong track 73 46 88 78 72 74 DK/NA 8 10 5 7 5 9
TREND: Generally speaking, would you say things in this country are heading in the right direction, or are they off on the wrong track?
Apr 19 Mar 1 Jan 25 2007 2007 2007 Right direction 19 23 22 Wrong track 73 71 71 DK/NA 8 6 7
31. What do you think is the most important issue for the next president to deal with?
Tot War (Iraq) 54% Terrorism Total 8% Terrorism general 5 Security/Safety 3 Foreign Affairs Total 6% Foreign affairs/ policy general 3 Priorities s/b at home, not abroad 2 Middle East 1 Economy Total 5% Economy general 3 Unemployment/jobs 1 Cost of living 1 Immigration 5% Healthcare/Costs/ Ins/HMO's 4% Environment/Pollution 3% Politicians Total 2% Political corruption 1 Campaigns other 1 Budget deficits 1 Education general 1 Energy general 1 Lack of ethics/Morality 1 Peace 1 Poverty/Homeless 1 Taxes general 1 Other 1 DK/NA 3
32. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the situation with Iraq?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 22% 53% 4% 20% 27% 18% Disapprove 74 41 95 77 70 77 DK/NA 4 6 1 4 3 5
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the situation with Iraq? * also 22% on 3/1/07 and 12/7/06
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Apr 19 Mar 1 Jan 25 Dec 7 Sep 20 Jan 25 Apr 19 2007 2007 2007 2006 2006 2006 2007 * Approve 22 22 23 22 30 34 22 Disapprove 74 75 72 75 66 62 74 DK/NA 4 4 5 3 4 4 4
33. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Right thing 33% 64% 14% 32% 36% 31% Wrong thing 62 29 83 63 59 64 DK/NA 5 7 3 5 5 5
TREND: Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?
Highest Lowest Right Right Apr 19 Mar 1 Jan 25 Dec 7 Sep 20 Oct 19 Jan 25 2007 2007 2007 2006 2006 2004 2007 Right thing 33 32 30 32 36 44 30 Wrong thing 62 64 63 64 59 51 63 DK/NA 5 3 7 4 5 5 7
34. Do you support or oppose Congress setting a time-table for withdrawing all United States troops from Iraq by the end of next year?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Support 57% 29% 79% 54% 48% 65% Oppose 38 64 18 41 49 28 DK/NA 5 6 3 5 3 6