New Jersey (NJ) Poll * December 13, 2007 * Clinton Up, But Giuliani Slips - Quinnipiac University

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December 13, 2007 - Clinton Up, But Giuliani Slips In New Jersey Primaries, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters Want A Tough Stand On Illegal Immigrants

Word format New York Sen. Hillary Clinton has increased her Democratic presidential primary lead in New Jersey while former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani has seen his Republican primary lead shrink, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. But both front-runners remain deadlocked in a one-on-one matchup.
Among Democrats, Sen. Clinton leads Illinois Sen. Barack Obama 51 - 17 percent, with 7 percent for former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards. This compares to a 46 - 20 percent Clinton lead over Obama in an October 17 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.
Giuliani leads Arizona Sen. John McCain 38 - 12 percent, with 8 percent for former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, 7 percent for former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and 4 percent for former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson. This compares to a 48 - 12 percent Giuliani lead over McCain October 17.
In a presidential showdown, Clinton gets 45 percent to Giuliani's 44 percent, unchanged from a 44 - 44 percent tie October 17.
"New Jersey voters know the girl and boy next door, Sen. Hillary Clinton and Mayor Rudolph Giuliani, and apparently are sticking with them. There's no Oprah bump in Sen. Barack Obama's numbers and the Huckabee factor is minor in the Republican race, where Sen. John McCain is the second place contender," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"But Giuliani has slipped 10 points among Republicans and those votes seem to have bypassed McCain and gone to Gov. Huckabee."
"If Clinton and Giuliani are the nominees, the outlook right now is for a real horse race in normally Democratic New Jersey," Richards added.
Immigration
New Jersey voters say 65 - 27 percent that immigration reform should focus on stricter enforcement of laws against illegal immigrants, rather than on integrating these immigrants into American society.
Even if they agree with a presidential candidate on all other issues, 25 percent of New Jersey voters say they would vote against that candidate if he/she disagreed on immigration policy.
Illegal immigrants take jobs that no one else wants, 62 percent of voters say, while 28 percent say these immigrants take jobs from Americans who need them.
Legal immigrants do more to help the country, voters say 74 - 17 percent, but illegal immigrants do more to hurt the country, voters say 67 - 24 percent.
But voters say 63 - 32 percent that the children of illegal immigrants should be allowed to attend public schools.
"New Jersey voters want to see stronger enforcement of laws against illegal immigrants, even though they think they take jobs that most legal workers don't want and favor allowing their children to go to public schools," Richards said.
Bush Approval
New Jersey voters disapprove 67 - 26 percent of the job President George W. Bush is doing, compared to an all-time low 74 - 21 percent disapproval July 5.
From December 5 - 9, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,085 New Jersey voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points. The survey includes 320 Republicans, with a margin of error of +/- 5.5 percentage points, and 387 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 5 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and nationally as a public service and for research. For more data -- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x271.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.
1. (If registered Democrat) If the 2008 Democratic primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Chris Dodd, John Edwards, Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich, Barack Obama, and Bill Richardson, for whom would you vote?
Tot Men Wom Biden 3% 5% 2% Clinton 51 49 52 Dodd - - - Edwards 7 7 8 Gravel 1 1 - Kucinich 2 1 4 Obama 17 19 16 Richardson 1 2 0 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 4 2 DK/NA 12 10 13
TREND: (If registered Democrat) If the 2008 Democratic primary for President were being held today and the candidates were Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Chris Dodd, John Edwards, Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich, Barack Obama, and Bill Richardson, for whom would you vote? (na = not asked)
REGISTERED DEMOCRATS.................................. Dec 13 Oct 17 Sep 26 Jul 5 Apr 19 Mar 1 Jan 25 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 Biden 3 2 3 2 3 3 6 Clinton 51 46 46 37 38 41 30 Dodd - 1 - 1 - - - Edwards 7 9 7 6 9 5 8 Gravel 1 - - - - na na Kucinich 2 2 1 - - 1 - Obama 17 20 15 15 16 19 16 Richardson 1 3 1 4 2 1 1 Clark na na na na 1 1 2 Gore na na 11 18 12 10 11 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 2 2 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 3 2 - 2 1 DK/NA 12 14 12 13 16 15 17
2. (If registered Republican) If the 2008 Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, John McCain, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, Tom Tancredo and Fred Thompson for whom would you vote?
Tot Men Wom Giuliani 38% 40% 37% Huckabee 8 9 7 Hunter 1 3 - McCain 12 11 12 Paul 2 3 2 Romney 7 9 5 Tancredo - - - Thompson, F. 4 6 3 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 3 DK/NA 23 16 30
TREND: (If registered Republican) If the 2008 Republican primary for President were being held today and the candidates were Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, John McCain, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, Tom Tancredo, and Fred Thompson, for whom would you vote? (na = not asked)
REGISTERED REPUBLICANS................................ Dec 13 Oct 17 Sep 26 Jul 5 Apr 19 Mar 1 Jan 25 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 Giuliani 38 48 45 46 49 58 39 Huckabee 8 1 2 1 - - 1 Hunter 1 - - - - - 1 McCain 12 12 8 11 18 15 21 Paul 2 2 3 1 - - na Romney 7 7 6 7 5 2 5 Tancredo - 1 - - 1 1 na Thompson, F. 4 12 12 9 6 na na Brownback na 1 - 1 1 - 1 Gilmore na na na - - 1 1 Gingrich na na 4 6 4 5 11 Hagel na na na na - 1 1 Pataki na na na na 2 1 3 Thompson, T. na na na 1 1 - - SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 2 1 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 3 4 1 2 3 DK/NA 23 13 14 12 10 10 13
3. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Clinton 45% 7% 86% 39% 40% 49% Giuliani 44 85 6 47 49 39 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 2 3 3 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 2 3 3 2 DK/NA 7 6 3 8 5 8
TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Dec 13 Oct 17 Sep 26 Jul 5 Apr 19 Mar 1 Jan 25 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 Clinton 45 44 44 44 40 41 41 Giuliani 44 44 45 47 49 50 48 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 1 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 DK/NA 7 7 7 6 8 6 8
4. Is your opinion of -- Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 43% 10% 81% 35% 40% 46% Unfavorable 42 77 12 45 48 37 Hvn't hrd enough 11 9 6 16 9 12 REFUSED 4 4 1 4 3 5
TREND: Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
Dec 13 Sep 26 Jul 5 Apr 19 Mar 1 Jan 25 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 Favorable 43 51 50 49 47 53 Unfavorable 42 41 42 43 43 38 Hvn't hrd enough 11 6 6 5 8 6 REFUSED 4 2 2 3 2 2
5. Is your opinion of -- Rudy Giuliani favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 49% 80% 29% 47% 52% 47% Unfavorable 32 7 55 30 33 31 Hvn't hrd enough 16 10 14 20 13 18 REFUSED 3 3 2 3 2 4
TREND: Is your opinion of Rudy Giuliani favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Dec 13 Sep 26 Jul 5 Apr 19 Mar 1 Jan 25 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 Favorable 49 61 61 62 66 63 Unfavorable 32 29 29 27 20 24 Hvn't hrd enough 16 9 8 9 12 12 REFUSED 3 2 2 3 2 1
10. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 26% 58% 5% 21% 29% 24% Disapprove 67 32 91 73 64 70 DK/NA 7 10 4 6 7 7
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Dec 13 Sep 26 Jul 5 Apr 19 Mar 1 Oct 18 Jul 5 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2001 2007 Approve 26 27 21 25 26 90 21 Disapprove 67 68 74 70 70 7 74 DK/NA 7 5 4 5 5 3 4
23. Overall, do you think legal immigrants do more to help the country or do more to hurt the country?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Help 74% 74% 72% 76% 76% 73% Hurt 17 19 21 14 18 17 DK/NA 9 7 7 10 7 10
24. Overall, do you think illegal immigrants do more to help the country or do more to hurt the country?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Help 24% 16% 32% 23% 26% 22% Hurt 67 80 57 66 65 68 DK/NA 9 4 10 11 8 10
25. Do you think immigration reform should primarily move in the direction of integrating illegal immigrants into American society or in the direction of stricter enforcement of laws against illegal immigration?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Intg immigrants 27% 16% 39% 26% 26% 28% Enforcement 65 74 55 67 66 65 DK/NA 8 10 6 7 8 8
26. If you agreed with a presidential candidate on other issues, but completely disagreed on the issue of illegal immigration, do you think you could still vote for that candidate or not?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 65% 66% 71% 62% 66% 64% No 25 27 18 28 25 24 DK/NA 10 8 11 11 9 12
27. Do you think illegal immigrants mostly take jobs that nobody wants or do they mostly take jobs away from Americans who need them?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom That nbdy wants 62% 55% 68% 62% 61% 64% Take jobs away 28 34 23 27 28 27 DK/NA 10 11 9 11 11 10
28. Do you think the children of illegal immigrants should or should not be allowed to attend public schools?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Should 63% 49% 73% 63% 55% 69% Should Not 32 46 23 31 39 26 DK/NA 5 5 3 6 6 5