New Jersey (NJ) Poll * June 11, 2008 * Lautenberg Tops Zimmer, But Mo - Quinnipiac University

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June 11, 2008 - Lautenberg Tops Zimmer, But Most Say He's Too Old, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Failing Grades On Budget Crash Corzine Job Rating

Word format New Jersey U.S. Sen. Frank Lautenberg leads former U.S. Rep. Dick Zimmer, his Republican challenger, 47 - 38 percent in his reelection bid, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today, but most voters say Sen. Lautenberg is too old to begin another six-year term.
Democrats back Lautenberg 80 - 11 percent, while Republicans back Zimmer 79 - 13 percent and independent voters back the Republican 43 - 35 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds.
New Jersey voters approve 46 - 35 percent of the job Lautenberg is doing, his highest disapproval in 12 years of surveys. Democrats approve 63 - 19 percent, while Republicans disapprove 57 - 23 percent and independent voters split with 44 percent approving and 42 percent disapproving.
By a 40 - 31 percent margin, voters have a favorable opinion of Lautenberg. For Zimmer, 67 percent haven't heard enough to form an opinion.
New Jersey voters say 54 - 41 percent that Lautenberg is too old to effectively serve another six-year term as a U.S. Senator. Even Democrats split 48 - 49 percent on whether Lautenberg is too old.
"Sen. Frank Lautenberg has a comfortable nine-point lead over Dick Zimmer at this point, but there are warning signs along the path to his re-election bid," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"Sen. Lautenberg's age continues to be a big issue; voters give him the biggest disapproval rating in 12 years and independent voters are going for the Republican."
"Most voters say they don't know Zimmer well enough to have an opinion. It will be interesting to see how the horse race shapes up as he becomes better known," Richards added.
Corzine Approval
New Jersey voters disapprove 52 - 38 percent of the job Gov. Jon Corzine is doing, among his lowest grades ever, and disapprove 57 - 30 percent of the way he is handling the state budget.
This compares to a 52 - 37 percent overall disapproval for Gov. Jon Corzine in a February 20 Quinnipiac University poll. Democrats approve of Corzine by a lackluster 49 - 41 percent, while Republicans disapprove 68 - 23 percent and independent voters turn thumbs down 54 - 36 percent.
The State Legislature does even worse with a 57 - 25 percent disapproval, with negative grades from all parties.
A total of 68 percent of New Jersey voters are "somewhat dissatisfied" or "very dissatisfied" with the way things are going in the Garden State, while 32 percent are "very satisfied" or "somewhat satisfied." Only 10 percent of New Jersey voters say things in the state are better since Corzine became Governor in 2006, while 39 percent say things are worse and 50 percent say they are the same.
New Jersey's budget problems are "very serious" 66 percent of voters say, with 29 percent who say "somewhat serious."
On a more personal topic: When asked if Corzine should make public his email exchanges with ex-girlfriend Carla Katz, men split 46 - 45 percent, while women say 58 - 33 percent that the email should be kept private.
"The drop in Gov. Jon Corzine's approval rating isn't surprising given his fumbles with the state budget this year and the increasingly difficult economy. The Governor is going to have to pull a rabbit out of a hat in the upcoming budget debate this month if he wants to get his numbers back on track and get in shape for next year's re-election bid," Richards said.
From June 5 - 8, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,473 New Jersey voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and nationally as a public service and for research. For more data -- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x271.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.
2. If the 2008 election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Frank Lautenberg the Democrat and Dick Zimmer the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Lautenberg 47% 13% 80% 35% 45% 50% 43% 73% Zimmer 38 79 11 43 42 36 44 11 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 2 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 2 7 4 3 3 6 DK/NA 10 7 7 14 9 10 9 9 Philly Age Age Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore 18-44 45+ Lautenberg 66% 51% 39% 42% 39% 49% 48% Zimmer 23 37 47 35 51 33 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 2 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 3 10 3 6 2 DK/NA 8 11 10 12 6 12 8
3. Is your opinion of -- Dick Zimmer favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 21% 37% 6% 26% 25% 17% 24% 4% Unfavorable 11 5 13 11 14 8 10 10 Hvn't hrd enough 67 56 79 62 59 74 64 86 REFUSED 2 2 2 1 2 1 2 - Philly Age Age Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore 18-44 45+ Favorable 16% 18% 28% 15% 28% 14% 23% Unfavorable 9 14 8 11 8 12 10 Hvn't hrd enough 72 68 61 72 61 72 65 REFUSED 3 - 4 2 3 2 2
4. Is your opinion of -- Frank Lautenberg favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 40% 18% 57% 38% 40% 40% 40% 56% Unfavorable 31 53 12 38 35 27 35 12 Hvn't hrd enough 26 26 29 19 20 30 21 31 REFUSED 4 4 2 5 4 3 4 1 Philly Age Age Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore 18-44 45+ Favorable 52% 45% 36% 29% 37% 32% 44% Unfavorable 18 27 39 35 35 22 35 Hvn't hrd enough 27 24 21 32 25 40 18 REFUSED 3 4 4 4 3 5 3
10. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jon Corzine is handling his job as Governor?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 38% 23% 49% 36% 38% 38% 37% 46% Disapprove 52 68 41 54 54 49 53 37 DK/NA 11 9 10 10 8 13 10 18 Philly Age Age Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore 18-44 45+ Approve 46% 38% 38% 34% 34% 35% 39% Disapprove 42 51 54 54 57 51 52 DK/NA 12 11 8 12 9 14 8
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jon Corzine is handling his job as Governor?
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Jun 11 Feb 20 Dec 11 Sep 25 Jul 9 Apr 18 Apr 26 2008 2008 2007 2007 2007 2007 2006 Approve 38 37 46 49 48 51 35 Disapprove 52 52 43 40 39 36 42 DK/NA 11 12 11 11 13 13 23
11. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 25% 22% 30% 22% 24% 26% 24% 35% Disapprove 57 63 47 64 63 52 59 40 DK/NA 18 15 23 14 13 22 16 25 Philly Age Age Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore 18-44 45+ Approve 40% 26% 23% 22% 17% 30% 23% Disapprove 40 57 67 54 66 56 57 DK/NA 20 17 11 24 17 14 19
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Jun 11 Feb 20 Dec 11 Sep 25 Jul 9 Jan 26 Jul 14 2008 2008 2007 2007 2007 2005 2006 Approve 25 26 28 30 30 44 20 Disapprove 57 54 53 54 52 31 71 DK/NA 18 20 19 16 18 25 10
12. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Frank Lautenberg is handling his job as United States Senator?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 46% 23% 63% 44% 47% 46% 45% 60% Disapprove 35 57 19 42 38 33 39 13 DK/NA 18 21 18 14 15 21 16 26 Philly Age Age Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore 18-44 45+ Approve 59% 51% 41% 38% 41% 45% 48% Disapprove 21 34 43 37 42 35 35 DK/NA 19 15 17 25 17 20 17
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Frank Lautenberg is handling his job as United States Senator? * - also 55% on 9/23/1999 & 7/22/1999
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Jun 11 Feb 20 Dec 11 Sep 25 Jul 9 Jul 27 Feb 20 2008 2008 2007 2007 2007 2000 * 2008 Approve 46 39 42 42 41 55 39 Disapprove 35 31 33 34 32 22 31 DK/NA 18 29 25 24 28 23 29
13. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Robert Menendez is handling his job as United States Senator?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 36% 23% 44% 39% 38% 35% 33% 43% Disapprove 26 38 17 29 32 21 28 12 DK/NA 37 39 40 32 30 44 39 45 Philly Age Age Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore 18-44 45+ Approve 47% 40% 32% 28% 34% 38% 37% Disapprove 22 29 28 23 26 24 27 DK/NA 31 31 40 49 40 38 36
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Robert Menendez is handling his job as United States Senator? * 39% on 3/20/06
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Jun 11 Feb 20 Dec 11 Sep 25 Jul 9 Dec 7 Feb 20 2008 2008 2007 2007 2007 2006 * 2008 Approve 36 30 34 32 31 39 30 Disapprove 26 31 34 38 39 37 31 DK/NA 37 39 32 30 31 24 39
15. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in New Jersey today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Very satisfied 3% 2% 2% 3% 3% 2% 3% 1% Smwht satisfied 29 25 35 24 28 30 28 39 Smwht dissatisfied 35 29 37 37 35 34 34 32 Very dissatisfied 33 43 24 36 33 33 35 25 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 1 1 - 3 Philly Age Age Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore 18-44 45+ Very satisfied 1% 4% 4% 2% 1% 3% 2% Smwht satisfied 41 32 22 26 22 34 27 Smwht dissatisfied 26 38 37 31 37 35 34 Very dissatisfied 30 26 36 40 40 28 36 DK/NA 2 1 1 1 - - 1
TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in New Jersey today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
Jun 11 Feb 20 Dec 11 Feb 28 Dec 6 Jun 16 Apr 26 2008 2008 2007 2007 2006 2006 2006 Very satisfied 3 4 3 3 2 3 3 Smwht satisfied 29 29 35 37 34 27 33 Smwht dissatisfied 35 33 32 34 38 37 31 Very dissatisfied 33 33 30 25 25 32 33 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
16. Since Jon Corzine became Governor in January 2006, do you feel that things in New Jersey have gotten better, gotten worse, or stayed about the same?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Better 10% 4% 14% 9% 10% 9% 9% 12% Worse 39 51 29 42 38 39 39 33 The same 50 44 55 48 50 49 50 54 DK/NA 2 1 2 1 1 2 2 1 Philly Age Age Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore 18-44 45+ Better 16% 10% 5% 11% 6% 10% 10% Worse 31 38 38 38 50 37 39 The same 50 51 55 49 44 52 49 DK/NA 3 2 2 2 1 1 2
TREND: Since Jon Corzine became Governor in January 2006, do you feel that things in New Jersey have gotten better, gotten worse, or stayed about the same?
Jun 11 Feb 20 Dec 11 Feb 28 2008 2008 2007 2007 Better 10 10 14 20% Worse 39 35 25 15 The same 50 53 59 62 DK/NA 2 2 2 3
17. At age 84, do you think Frank Lautenberg is too old to effectively serve another 6 year term as United States Senator, or not?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Yes 54% 61% 48% 59% 50% 58% 56% 43% No 41 33 49 36 46 37 39 53 DK/NA 5 6 4 5 4 5 5 4 Philly Age Age Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore 18-44 45+ Yes 50% 57% 52% 54% 56% 57% 54% No 43 38 42 43 41 41 40 DK/NA 6 5 6 4 3 3 5
TREND: At age 84, do you think Frank Lautenberg is too old to effectively serve another 6 year term as United States Senator, or not? * age 83
Jun 11 Feb 20 Sep 25 Jul 9 2008 2008 2007* 2007* Yes 54 58 54 54 No 41 36 40 40 DK/NA 5 6 6 6
27. Recently a judge ruled that e-mail correspondence between Governor Corzine and union leader Carla Katz, his ex-girlfriend, should be made public. Corzine will appeal the ruling. Do you think these e-mails should be made public or kept private?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Made public 39% 46% 27% 50% 46% 33% 42% 27% Kept private 52 44 66 42 45 58 48 66 DK/NA 9 10 7 9 9 9 9 7 Philly Age Age Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore 18-44 45+ Made public 31% 40% 48% 35% 42% 41% 39% Kept private 60 52 41 54 52 53 52 DK/NA 8 9 11 11 6 7 10
28. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jon Corzine is handling the state budget?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 30% 19% 38% 27% 32% 28% 30% 30% Disapprove 57 71 46 61 58 56 58 47 DK/NA 14 10 16 13 10 17 12 23 Philly Age Age Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore 18-44 45+ Approve 36% 33% 31% 28% 20% 27% 32% Disapprove 50 54 60 56 66 60 55 DK/NA 14 13 9 16 14 13 14
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jon Corzine is handling the state budget?
Jun 11 Feb 28 Jul 14 Jun 16 Apr 26 Mar 16 2008 2007 2006 2006 2006 2006 Approve 30 42 47 39 31 32 Disapprove 57 40 46 45 46 24 DK/NA 14 18 7 17 23 44
29. How serious do you think New Jersey's budget problems are - very serious, somewhat serious, not too serious, or not at all serious?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Very serious 66% 64% 61% 73% 67% 65% 67% 61% Smwht serious 29 29 33 23 28 30 29 27 Not too serious 2 2 3 1 2 3 1 6 Not at all serious 1 1 - 2 1 - 1 - DK/NA 2 3 2 1 2 2 1 6 Philly Age Age Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore 18-44 45+ Very serious 64% 61% 69% 64% 75% 62% 68% Smwht serious 31 33 26 32 22 32 28 Not too serious 2 3 2 2 2 3 2 Not at all serious - 1 1 - 1 1 1 DK/NA 3 2 2 2 1 2 2
TREND: How serious do you think New Jersey's budget problems are - very serious, somewhat serious, not too serious, or not at all serious?
Jun 11 Jun 16 Apr 26 Mar 16 Jan 26 Nov 12 Apr 2 2008 2006 2006 2006 2006 2003 2003 Very serious 66 58 56 53 54 45 38 Somewhat serious 29 34 35 38 38 42 49 Not too serious 2 4 5 5 5 8 7 Not at all serious 1 1 1 1 - 1 1 DK/NA 2 3 3 3 2 4 5