New Jersey (NJ) Poll * June 12, 2008 * Women Give Obama The Edge In N - Quinnipiac University

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June 12, 2008 - Women Give Obama The Edge In New Jersey, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Gas Prices Are Voters' Biggest Money Concern

Word format With a double-digit lead among women, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, the likely Democratic presidential candidate, leads Arizona Sen. John McCain, the likely Republican standard-bearer, 45 - 39 percent in New Jersey, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
This is virtually unchanged from a 46 - 39 percent Obama lead in a February 21 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University, when New York Sen. Hillary Clinton still was in the race.
In this latest survey, women back Sen. Obama 46 - 35 percent while men split 44 - 44 percent. Independent voters go 42 percent for Sen. McCain to 40 percent for Obama, while Democrats back Obama 74 - 10 percent and Republicans back McCain 83 - 9 percent.
New Jersey voters give Obama a 56 - 32 percent favorability rating to McCain's 51 - 36 percent.
"Sen. Barack Obama shows every sign of keeping New Jersey in the blue state column in the presidential election, rolling up the kinds of numbers that routinely elect Democrats year after year," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"Almost a majority says the economy is the most important issue in the campaign; President Bush's approval rating is near his all time low; only 29 percent support the war in Iraq - all bad news for Sen. John McCain who enters the state with Republicans already the registration underdogs."
New Jersey voters say 53 - 36 percent that Obama should not tap Sen. Clinton as his vice- presidential running mate. Democrats want Clinton on the ticket 51 - 39 percent, while Republicans oppose this marriage 72 - 17 percent, with independent voters opposed 60 - 30 percent.
But voters say 44 - 28 percent that running with Clinton would help Obama. Republicans split 33 - 35 percent, while Democrats say 54 - 17 percent and independent voters say 42 - 35 percent that the "Dream Ticket" would help the Democrats.
Obama cares about their needs and problems, New Jersey voters say 64 - 26 percent, compared to 52 - 39 percent for McCain.
The economy will be the most important factor in their presidential vote, 46 percent of voters say, while 23 percent list the war in Iraq and 11 percent list healthcare.
McCain's age will not affect their vote, 76 percent of voters say, as 21 percent say they will be less likely to vote for him because of his age.
Obama's race will not affect their vote, 88 percent of voters say.
Bush Approval
New Jersey voters disapprove 74 - 22 percent of the job President George W. Bush is doing, close to his all-time low of 74 - 21 percent in a July 5, 2007 Quinnipiac University poll. Voters say 67 - 29 percent that going to war in Iraq was the wrong thing to do.
From June 5 - 8, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,473 New Jersey voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percent.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research. For more data -- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.
1. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Obama 45% 9% 74% 40% 44% 46% 37% 89% McCain 39 83 10 42 44 35 46 5 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 - 3 3 2 2 2 - DK/NA 12 7 11 14 8 15 13 6 Philly Age Age Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore 18-44 45+ Obama 59% 44% 42% 48% 37% 55% 41% McCain 22 42 46 33 46 32 42 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 1 1 3 3 1 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 1 4 2 2 2 DK/NA 13 12 9 12 12 10 12
TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican,for whom would you vote?
Jun 12 Feb 21 Sep 26 Jul 5 Apr 19 Mar 1 Jan 25 2008 2008 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 Obama 45 46 44 44 43 45 39 McCain 39 39 41 40 41 41 42 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 5 4 3 2 2 DK/NA 12 11 9 9 11 10 15
5. Is your opinion of -- Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 51% 21% 75% 44% 45% 56% 47% 58% Unfavorable 45 76 22 52 51 40 49 39 Hvn't hrd enough 2 2 1 1 2 2 2 3 REFUSED 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 - Philly Age Age Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore 18-44 45+ Favorable 62% 52% 44% 53% 45% 53% 50% Unfavorable 36 44 52 43 52 43 47 Hvn't hrd enough 1 2 1 2 2 2 2 REFUSED 1 2 3 3 2 2 2
TREND: Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
Jun 12 Feb 21 Dec 13 Sep 26 Jul 5 Apr 19 Mar 1 2008 2008 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 Favorable 51 50 43 51 50 49 47 Unfavorable 45 43 42 41 42 43 43 Hvn't hrd enough 2 5 11 6 6 5 8 REFUSED 2 3 4 2 2 3 2
6. Is your opinion of -- Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 56% 29% 77% 51% 53% 58% 49% 91% Unfavorable 32 60 14 33 35 30 37 5 Hvn't hrd enough 11 9 8 14 11 10 12 4 REFUSED 2 1 1 2 2 2 2 1 Philly Age Age Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore 18-44 45+ Favorable 68% 53% 53% 57% 50% 65% 52% Unfavorable 24 33 35 32 33 28 34 Hvn't hrd enough 5 12 11 9 15 6 12 REFUSED 3 1 1 2 3 1 2
TREND: Is your opinion of Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Jun 12 Feb 21 Sep 26 Jul 5 Apr 19 Mar 1 Jan 25 2008 2008 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 Favorable 56 58 50 49 48 42 41 Unfavorable 32 21 23 21 15 11 9 Hvn't hrd enough 11 19 25 29 34 45 49 REFUSED 2 3 2 1 2 2 1
7. Is your opinion of -- John McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 51% 84% 23% 60% 56% 47% 57% 16% Unfavorable 36 9 62 27 36 37 31 70 Hvn't hrd enough 10 6 12 9 6 13 9 11 REFUSED 3 1 3 4 3 4 3 3 Philly Age Age Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore 18-44 45+ Favorable 40% 55% 50% 48% 56% 45% 53% Unfavorable 44 34 34 40 33 42 35 Hvn't hrd enough 14 9 12 8 7 9 9 REFUSED 3 2 4 5 4 4 3
TREND: Is your opinion of John McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Jun 12 Feb 21 Sep 26 Jul 5 Apr 19 Mar 1 Jan 25 2008 2008 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 Favorable 51 52 47 46 52 48 52 Unfavorable 36 28 28 30 24 24 24 Hvn't hrd enough 10 16 23 21 20 25 21 REFUSED 3 3 3 3 4 4 2
8. Do you think that Barack Obama should choose Hillary Clinton to be his vice- presidential running mate or not?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Yes 36% 17% 51% 30% 32% 39% 33% 37% No 53 72 39 60 58 49 56 54 DK/NA 11 11 10 10 10 11 11 10 Philly Age Age Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore 18-44 45+ Yes 47% 37% 27% 35% 32% 42% 33% No 46 51 60 53 57 52 55 DK/NA 6 12 13 11 11 6 12
9. Do you think having Hillary Clinton on the Democratic ticket for vice-president would help or hurt Obama's chances of winning the presidential election, or wouldn't it make a difference?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Help 44% 33% 54% 42% 40% 47% 42% 42% Hurt 28 35 17 35 32 24 30 21 Wldnt make a diff 21 23 22 18 21 21 20 28 DK/NA 7 9 7 5 6 8 7 9 Philly Age Age Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore 18-44 45+ Help 52% 44% 38% 43% 43% 48% 42% Hurt 21 26 31 25 36 29 27 Wldnt make a diff 20 23 20 24 16 20 22 DK/NA 6 7 10 7 5 3 9
14. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 22% 56% 6% 17% 26% 19% 26% 9% Disapprove 74 39 93 78 71 77 70 90 DK/NA 3 5 1 5 3 3 4 - Philly Age Age Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore 18-44 45+ Approve 15% 23% 26% 21% 24% 19% 24% Disapprove 81 73 73 75 72 79 72 DK/NA 4 4 1 4 4 2 4
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Jun 12 Feb 21 Dec 13 Sep 26 Jul 5 Oct 18 Jul 5 2008 2008 2007 2007 2007 2001 2007 Approve 22 26 26 27 21 90 21 Disapprove 74 70 67 68 74 7 74 DK/NA 3 5 7 5 4 3 4
18. Which of the following will be the single most important issue in your vote in the election for President this year? (READ OPTIONS)
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Terrorism 9% 19% 3% 9% 9% 8% 11% - The war in Iraq 23 15 29 24 22 24 25 21 The economy 46 46 49 45 47 46 45 45 Illegal immigration 6 12 2 6 8 5 6 4 Health care 11 6 14 10 9 12 9 25 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 3 1 3 3 3 3 3 2 DK/NA 2 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 Philly Age Age Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore 18-44 45+ Terrorism 3% 10% 13% 8% 8% 5% 11% The war in Iraq 21 22 29 24 23 22 24 The economy 42 48 45 46 48 51 44 Illegal immigration 8 6 4 5 7 4 7 Health care 20 8 5 13 11 12 10 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 5 4 1 2 2 4 2 DK/NA 1 2 2 2 1 1 2
19. Would you say that Barack Obama cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Yes 64% 46% 80% 61% 63% 65% 58% 91% No 26 45 12 29 29 25 32 3 DK/NA 10 9 8 10 8 11 10 7 Philly Age Age Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore 18-44 45+ Yes 74% 64% 65% 61% 58% 69% 62% No 16 29 29 24 31 23 29 DK/NA 10 7 7 15 11 8 10
20. Would you say that John McCain cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Yes 52% 79% 31% 57% 58% 47% 57% 26% No 39 14 58 34 36 41 34 64 DK/NA 9 6 10 9 6 12 9 10 Philly Age Age Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore 18-44 45+ Yes 44% 55% 53% 48% 54% 47% 54% No 46 37 39 42 34 44 37 DK/NA 10 8 8 10 12 9 9
21. If elected, John McCain would be the first person to become President at age 72. Does that make you more likely to vote for McCain, less likely to vote for McCain, or doesn't it make a difference?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk More likely 2% 4% 1% 3% 3% 1% 2% - Less likely 21 8 32 17 18 22 16 47 Doesn't make a diff 76 88 65 80 78 74 81 51 DK/NA 1 - 2 1 1 2 1 2 Philly Age Age Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore 18-44 45+ More likely 2% 3% 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% Less likely 25 21 19 20 18 24 19 Doesn't make a diff 72 76 78 76 79 73 77 DK/NA 1 1 2 2 1 1 2
22. If elected, Barack Obama would be the first African-American President. Does that make you more likely to vote for Obama, less likely to vote for Obama, or doesn't it make a difference?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk More likely 7% 2% 11% 5% 7% 7% 3% 22% Less likely 4 7 3 5 5 4 5 - Doesn't make a diff 88 90 86 90 88 88 91 78 DK/NA 1 1 - - 1 1 1 - Philly Age Age Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore 18-44 45+ More likely 10% 6% 5% 11% 2% 10% 5% Less likely 6 3 4 3 7 4 5 Doesn't make a diff 83 90 91 84 91 86 89 DK/NA 1 1 - 2 - - 1
23. Which best describes your family's financial situation - Getting ahead, falling behind or holding steady?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Getting ahead 14% 15% 12% 14% 17% 11% 12% 20% Falling behind 21 16 22 21 17 24 21 20 Holding steady 65 68 65 64 65 65 66 61 DK/NA 1 - - 1 1 - 1 - Philly Age Age Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore 18-44 45+ Getting ahead 18% 14% 11% 13% 11% 17% 12% Falling behind 23 20 20 20 22 20 21 Holding steady 59 65 69 66 66 63 66 DK/NA - 1 - - - - 1
24. As you think about your own financial situation, which of the following economic issues worries you the most right now -- a. Declining retirement fund values b. Declining real estate values c. Rising health care costs d. Rising gasoline prices e. Rising food prices
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Retirement funds 12% 12% 13% 12% 11% 13% 13% 8% Real estate values 10 10 10 10 11 9 11 6 Health care costs 19 14 22 18 18 20 19 25 Gasoline prices 41 45 37 44 42 40 40 44 Food prices 14 14 15 12 14 14 13 15 DK/NA 3 4 3 3 3 4 4 2 Philly Age Age Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore 18-44 45+ Retirement funds 11% 12% 13% 13% 10% 5% 16% Real estate values 7 12 8 9 13 14 8 Health care costs 20 20 15 23 19 16 21 Gasoline prices 29 42 47 39 45 47 38 Food prices 29 12 12 12 9 17 13 DK/NA 3 3 4 4 4 1 5
25. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Right thing 29% 64% 7% 27% 34% 24% 34% 7% Wrong thing 67 31 91 67 63 71 62 91 DK/NA 4 5 2 6 3 4 4 1 Philly Age Age Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore 18-44 45+ Right thing 19% 31% 32% 28% 30% 24% 31% Wrong thing 76 66 64 69 64 73 65 DK/NA 5 3 5 3 6 3 4
TREND: Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?
Highest Lowest Right Right Jun 12 Feb 21 Jul 5 Apr 19 Mar 1 Oct 19 Jun 12 2008 2008 2007 2007 2007 2004 2008 Right thing 29 31 32 33 32 44 29 Wrong thing 67 65 64 62 64 51 67 DK/NA 4 5 5 5 3 5 4
26. What should the United States do in Iraq? Withdraw all troops as soon as possible, OR set a timetable to withdraw troops gradually OR keep troops in Iraq as long as needed?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Withdraw all troops 22% 8% 31% 22% 18% 26% 19% 22% Set a timetable 49 37 58 47 45 52 48 66 Keep troops as needed 26 52 8 30 35 19 30 9 DK/NA 2 3 3 1 2 3 2 3 Philly Age Age Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore 18-44 45+ Withdraw all troops 23% 28% 17% 20% 18% 26% 21% Set a timetable 55 43 51 53 50 50 49 Keep troops as needed 18 27 28 25 30 21 28 DK/NA 4 1 4 2 2 3 2