New Jersey (NJ) Poll * August 12, 2008 * Christie Ties Corzine In Early - Quinnipiac University

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August 12, 2008 - Christie Ties Corzine In Early Look At NJ Gov Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Zimmer Trails Lautenberg By 7 Points In Senate Race

Word format New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine, plagued by ongoing budget problems, is locked in a dead heat with federal prosecutor Christopher Christie, a possible Republican challenger in the 2009 Governor's race, with 41 percent of registered voters for Christie and 40 percent for the Democratic incumbent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
Christie wins independent voters 42 - 37 percent and Republicans 76 - 10 percent, while Democrats go with Gov. Corzine 64 - 17 percent.
New Jersey voters disapprove 48 - 42 percent of the job Corzine is doing, better than his 52 - 38 percent disapproval in a June 11 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. Voters disapprove 56 - 33 percent of the way Corzine is handling the state budget.
Only 32 percent of voters are "very satisfied" or "somewhat satisfied" with the way things are going in New Jersey, while 67 percent are "somewhat dissatisfied" or "very dissatisfied." This dissatisfaction rate has been in the 2 - 1 range for more than two years.
Since Corzine was elected, things in New Jersey have gotten worse, 39 percent of voters say, with 49 percent who say things have stayed the same and 9 percent who say things are better.
By a 46 - 39 percent margin, voters have an unfavorable opinion of Corzine. For Christie, 69 percent of voters haven't heard enough to form an opinion.
"Gov. Jon Corzine is in trouble. Since most New Jersey voters say they don't know a lot about Christopher Christie, Gov. Corzine's record and inability to unscramble the state's budget mess is pulling him down," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"It may be unfair, but voters view Corzine's plans to use the New Jersey Turnpike to reorganize state finances as blue smoke and mirrors," Richards added.
"As more voters learn Christie is the man who has been putting corrupt New Jersey politicians in jail for years, things could get worse for the Governor.
"But Corzine has 16 months and millions and millions of ways to keep himself in office."
U.S. Senate Race
Democratic incumbent Sen. Frank Lautenberg leads Republican challenger Dick Zimmer 48 - 41 percent among likely New Jersey voters, a more select group than registered voters surveyed in previous polls.
Zimmer gets 44 percent of independent voters to Sen. Lautenberg's 42 percent, and leads 80 - 12 percent among Republicans, while Democrats back Lautenberg 79 - 12 percent. Their mind is made up, say 68 percent of Lautenberg voters and 73 percent of Zimmer supporters.
Likely voters approve 46 - 38 percent of the job Lautenberg is doing and give him a 43 - 35 percent favorability. Zimmer gets a 25 - 12 percent favorability, but 62 percent don't know enough about him to form an opinion.
Voters say 55 - 39 percent that Lautenberg is too old to effectively serve another six years in the Senate. Even Democrats say 50 - 46 percent that Lautenberg is too old.
"Sen. Frank Lautenberg has a comfortable lead over a not very strong opponent. It's summer and voters aren't paying a lot of attention to this race. When they do, the incumbent's lead may get bigger - if voters don't get too concerned about the Senator's age," Richards said.
From August 4 - 10, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,519 New Jersey registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percentage points. The survey includes 1,468 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percent.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and nationally as a public service and for research.
2. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Frank Lautenberg the Democrat, and Dick Zimmer the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q2) As of today, do you lean more toward Lautenberg or Zimmer? This table includes "Leaners".
LIKELY VOTERS........................................ Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Lautenberg 48% 12% 79% 42% 45% 51% 43% 85% Zimmer 41 80 12 44 46 36 47 6 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 1 1 1 - 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - DK/NA 11 8 8 13 9 12 10 7 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Lautenberg 58% 53% 35% 48% 44% Zimmer 29 36 53 43 43 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - - 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - DK/NA 11 10 12 8 12
TREND: If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Frank Lautenberg the Democrat, and Dick Zimmer the Republican, for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED VOTERS Aug 12 Jun 11 2008 2008 Lautenberg 45 47 Zimmer 37 38 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 3 DK/NA 14 10
2a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
LIKELY VOTERS......... CANDIDATE CHOICE GIVEN CAND CHOICE Q2 Tot Lautn Zimmer Made up 70% 68% 73% Might change 29 31 26 DK/NA 1 1 1
3. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Jon Corzine the Democrat, and Christopher Christie the Republican, for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED VOTERS................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Corzine 40% 10% 64% 37% 38% 42% 34% 68% Christie 41 76 17 42 44 38 47 9 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 1 1 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 - 2 2 2 1 1 1 DK/NA 17 13 16 18 15 18 17 20 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Corzine 52% 48% 32% 34% 31% Christie 30 32 48 46 51 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 1 - 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 1 2 2 DK/NA 13 17 19 18 15
4. Is your opinion of -- Jon Corzine favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
REGISTERED VOTERS................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 39% 18% 55% 38% 42% 36% 35% 60% Unfavorable 46 72 29 46 47 45 51 18 Hvn't hrd enough 10 8 11 11 8 12 9 13 REFUSED 5 2 5 5 3 6 4 9 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Favorable 48% 46% 30% 37% 32% Unfavorable 32 39 51 49 60 Hvn't hrd enough 15 10 14 10 6 REFUSED 5 6 5 5 3
5. Is your opinion of -- Christopher Christie favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
REGISTERED VOTERS................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 21% 34% 14% 21% 25% 17% 23% 11% Unfavorable 7 1 12 8 10 5 6 15 Hvn't hrd enough 69 64 73 68 63 75 69 73 REFUSED 2 1 2 3 2 2 2 1 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Favorable 22% 21% 23% 18% 23% Unfavorable 11 10 4 7 6 Hvn't hrd enough 67 66 71 74 70 REFUSED 1 3 3 - 1
6. Is your opinion of -- Dick Zimmer favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS........................................ Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 25% 44% 13% 25% 31% 19% 28% 8% Unfavorable 12 8 15 10 13 11 11 16 Hvn't hrd enough 62 47 70 62 55 68 60 75 REFUSED 2 2 1 2 1 2 1 1
7. Is your opinion of -- Frank Lautenberg favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS........................................ Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 43% 20% 67% 37% 40% 46% 42% 67% Unfavorable 35 64 12 37 40 30 39 14 Hvn't hrd enough 19 13 20 23 17 21 17 16 REFUSED 3 3 1 4 2 3 2 3
10. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jon Corzine is handling his job as Governor?
REGISTERED VOTERS................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 42% 22% 60% 40% 43% 41% 39% 57% Disapprove 48 72 30 51 51 46 52 30 DK/NA 10 6 10 10 7 13 9 13 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Approve 51% 49% 36% 39% 32% Disapprove 34 40 54 55 59 DK/NA 15 11 9 6 9
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jon Corzine is handling his job as Governor?
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Aug 12 Jun 11 Feb 20 Dec 11 Sep 25 Apr 18 Apr 26 2008 2008 2008 2007 2007 2007 2006 Approve 42 38 37 46 49 51 35 Disapprove 48 52 52 43 40 36 42 DK/NA 10 11 12 11 11 13 23
11. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
REGISTERED VOTERS................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 25% 13% 38% 22% 23% 26% 23% 39% Disapprove 59 74 44 62 67 51 61 48 DK/NA 16 13 18 16 10 22 17 12 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Approve 31% 27% 20% 24% 22% Disapprove 51 56 56 63 66 DK/NA 18 17 23 12 12
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Aug 12 Jun 11 Feb 20 Dec 11 Sep 25 Jan 26 Jul 14 2008 2008 2008 2007 2007 2005 2006 Approve 25 25 26 28 30 44 20 Disapprove 59 57 54 53 54 31 71 DK/NA 16 18 20 19 16 25 10
12. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Frank Lautenberg is handling his job as United States Senator?
LIKELY VOTERS........................................ Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 46% 23% 68% 41% 43% 50% 44% 64% Disapprove 38 61 18 41 44 31 41 18 DK/NA 16 16 15 18 12 19 15 17
13. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Robert Menendez is handling his job as United States Senator?
REGISTERED VOTERS................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 33% 17% 50% 28% 32% 34% 30% 45% Disapprove 34 52 18 36 40 27 35 23 DK/NA 33 31 32 35 28 39 34 32 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Approve 44% 35% 27% 31% 30% Disapprove 31 28 40 37 35 DK/NA 25 37 34 32 35
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Robert Menendez is handling his job as United States Senator? (* also 39% on 3/20/06)
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Aug 12 Jun 11 Feb 20 Dec 11 Sep 25 Dec 7 Feb 20 2008 2008 2008 2007 2007 2006 * 2008 Approve 33 36 30 34 32 39 30 Disapprove 34 26 31 34 38 37 31 DK/NA 33 37 39 32 30 24 39
15. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in New Jersey today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
REGISTERED VOTERS................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Very satisfied 2% 3% 3% 1% 2% 2% 2% 4% Smwht satisfied 30 18 45 25 30 31 29 41 Smwht dissatisfied 35 35 32 38 35 35 34 37 Very dissatisfied 32 44 19 36 33 32 35 16 DK/NA 1 1 1 - 1 1 1 1 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Very satisfied 1% 4% 0% 2% 1% Smwht satisfied 40 31 29 30 25 Smwht dissatisfied 33 36 36 34 33 Very dissatisfied 25 27 35 34 40 DK/NA 1 1 1 - 1
TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in New Jersey today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
Aug 12 Jun 11 Feb 20 Dec 11 Feb 28 Dec 6 Jun 16 2008 2008 2008 2007 2007 2006 2006 Very satisfied 2 3 4 3 3 2 3 Smwht satisfied 30 29 29 35 37 34 27 Smwht dissatisfied 35 35 33 32 34 38 37 Very dissatisfied 32 33 33 30 25 25 32 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
16. Looking ahead to the 2009 election for Governor, do you feel that Jon Corzine deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
REGISTERED VOTERS................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Yes 37% 14% 58% 35% 37% 38% 34% 54% No 50 79 29 51 53 48 55 25 DK/NA 12 7 13 14 10 15 11 21 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Yes 53% 44% 32% 32% 26% No 33 43 58 54 63 DK/NA 13 13 10 13 11
TREND: Looking ahead to the 2009 election for Governor, do you feel that Jon Corzine deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
Aug 12 Feb 20 Dec 11 2008 2008 2007 Yes 37 32 44 No 50 51 43 DK/NA 12 17 13
17. Since Jon Corzine became Governor in January 2006, do you feel that things in New Jersey have gotten better, gotten worse, or stayed about the same?
REGISTERED VOTERS................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Better 9% 3% 14% 9% 11% 8% 7% 21% Worse 39 60 22 41 39 39 42 23 The same 49 34 61 48 49 49 47 54 DK/NA 3 3 3 3 1 5 3 3 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Better 9% 12% 6% 10% 6% Worse 31 33 41 42 49 The same 57 52 47 47 42 DK/NA 3 2 6 1 3
TREND: Since Jon Corzine became Governor in January 2006, do you feel that things in New Jersey have gotten better, gotten worse, or stayed about the same?
Aug 12 Jun 11 Feb 20 Dec 11 Feb 28 2008 2008 2008 2007 2007 Better 9 10 10 14 20% Worse 39 39 35 25 15 The same 49 50 53 59 62 DK/NA 3 2 2 2 3
18. At age 84, do you think Frank Lautenberg is too old to effectively serve another 6 year term as United States Senator, or not?
LIKELY VOTERS........................................ Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Yes 55% 61% 50% 59% 55% 55% 55% 49% No 39 33 46 35 39 39 40 47 DK/NA 6 6 4 6 6 5 5 4
32. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jon Corzine is handling the state budget?
REGISTERED VOTERS................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 33% 14% 47% 33% 34% 31% 31% 45% Disapprove 56 77 41 58 57 56 58 43 DK/NA 11 9 12 10 9 13 10 12 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Approve 38% 40% 28% 30% 25% Disapprove 49 48 59 61 66 DK/NA 13 11 13 9 9
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jon Corzine is handling the state budget?
Aug 12 Jun 11 Feb 28 Jul 14 Jun 16 Apr 26 Mar 16 2008 2008 2007 2006 2006 2006 2006 Approve 33 30 42 47 39 31 32 Disapprove 56 57 40 46 45 46 24 DK/NA 11 14 18 7 17 23 44
33. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling the state budget?
REGISTERED VOTERS................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 17% 8% 26% 16% 18% 17% 16% 30% Disapprove 65 79 53 67 70 60 66 52 DK/NA 18 14 21 17 12 23 18 18 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Approve 21% 18% 16% 16% 16% Disapprove 61 59 64 71 70 DK/NA 19 23 19 13 14
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling the state budget?
Aug 12 Mar 17 Jul 17 2008 2005 2003 Approve 17 17% 23 Disapprove 65 63 55 DK/NA 18 20 21
34. How serious do you think New Jersey's budget problems are - very serious, somewhat serious, not too serious, or not at all serious?
REGISTERED VOTERS................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Very serious 67% 70% 64% 69% 68% 66% 67% 64% Smwht serious 28 23 30 28 28 28 28 29 Not too serious 2 1 3 1 1 2 2 4 Not at all serious - - 1 - - - - 1 DK/NA 3 5 3 2 3 4 3 3 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Very serious 63% 70% 64% 64% 71% Smwht serious 33 25 29 28 26 Not too serious 4 2 - 3 - Not at all serious - - - - - DK/NA - 3 6 5 3
TREND: How serious do you think New Jersey's budget problems are - very serious, somewhat serious, not too serious, or not at all serious?
Aug 12 Jun 11 Jun 16 Apr 26 Mar 16 Jan 26 Nov 12 Apr 2 2008 2008 2006 2006 2006 2006 2003 2003 Very serious 67 66 58 56 53 54 45 38 Somewhat serious 28 29 34 35 38 38 42 49 Not too serious 2 2 4 5 5 5 8 7 Not at all serious - 1 1 1 1 - 1 1 DK/NA 3 2 3 3 3 2 4 5