New Jersey (NJ) Poll * September 16, 2008 * With White Support, McCain Nip - Quinnipiac University

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September 16, 2008 - With White Support, McCain Nips At Obama's Heels In NJ, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Women Stay With Dem, But Men Move To GOP

Word format Fueled by a surge of support from white voters, Republican Sen. John McCain has narrowed a 10-point gap and now trails Democratic Sen. Barack Obama 48 - 45 percent among New Jersey likely voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
This compares to a 51 - 41 percent Sen. Obama lead in an August 13 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.
In this latest survey, white voters back Sen. McCain 56 - 37 percent, up from 50 - 42 percent August 13. Black voters support the Democrat 93 - 7 percent, compared to 94 - 1 percent. Men back McCain 53 - 40 percent, reversing a 48 - 45 percent Obama lead, while women stay with Obama 54 - 38 percent, compared to 53 - 38 percent.
But white women back McCain 50 - 42 percent, compared to 46 - 44 percent for Obama Aug. 13. Independent voters shift from 45 - 42 percent for Obama to 47 - 43 percent for McCain.
The Democrat leads 58 - 36 percent among voters 18 to 34 years old and 50 - 43 percent among voters 35 to 54, while McCain leads 52 - 41 percent among voters over 55 years old.
"The McCain-Palin ticket has narrowed the gap dramatically, but it will take more than this post convention bounce for the Republicans to win in true blue New Jersey. The upcoming debates probably will provide a clue to whether Sen. McCain can build on his current momentum, or whether the tide will turn back to the Democrats," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
More than a quarter of all voters and more than a third of independent voters say it is "very likely" or "somewhat likely" that the presidential debates will change their minds about who they will vote for.
New Jersey likely voters give Obama a 56 - 34 percent favorability rating, compared to 56 - 35 percent for McCain.
Gov. Sarah Palin, the Republican vice presidential candidate, gets a 42 - 32 percent favorability, with 25 percent saying they don't know enough about her to form an opinion. Democratic Sen. Joseph Biden gets a 48 - 25 percent favorability, with 26 percent who say they don't know enough about him.
New Jersey voters say 58 - 33 percent that McCain's selection of Palin was a good choice. Obama's selection of Biden was a good choice, voters say 59 - 30 percent.
The economy is the most important issue in their vote, 51 percent of New Jersey voters say, while 13 percent list the war in Iraq; 10 percent cite terrorism; 9 percent say health care and 8 percent say energy policy.
Obama understands the economy better than McCain, voters say 48 - 43 percent, but McCain better understands foreign policy, voters say 64 - 27 percent.
Voters say 32 - 28 percent that they will be better off if Obama is elected. But 54 percent of voters say their taxes will go up if Obama is elected, compared to 34 percent who expect a tax hike if McCain is elected.
And 44 percent believe McCain's claim that Obama will raise taxes on most American families, while 40 percent believe Obama's claim that he will cut taxes for 95 percent of working families.
"In addition to the Palin bounce, Republicans seem to be scoring points with their attacks on the Obama tax plan," Richards said.
From September 10 - 14, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,187 New Jersey likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and nationally as a public service and for research. For more data -- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.
1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners".
LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Obama 48% 10% 83% 43% 40% 54% 37% 93% McCain 45 89 10 47 53 38 56 7 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 - 1 - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - DK/NA 6 2 6 10 5 7 6 - IMP ISSUE Q26 Philly War Econ Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Obama 68% 54% 67% 46% 40% 56% 35% McCain 25 39 27 46 51 39 60 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - 1 - - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - DK/NA 7 6 5 7 9 4 4 WHITE........................... AGE IN YRS....... NoColl College 18-34 35-54 55+ Degree Degree Men Wom Cath Jew Obama 58% 50% 41% 34% 42% 32% 42% 31% 59% McCain 36 43 52 58 53 63 50 63 35 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - - - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - - DK/NA 6 6 7 7 5 5 8 6 5 PresVt2004.. BushJobAppQ21 Bush Kerry App Dis Obama 12% 83% 8% 65% McCain 85 10 90 27 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - DK/NA 3 6 1 8
TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners".
LIKELY VOTERS. Sep 16 Aug 13 2008 2008 Obama 48 51 McCain 45 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - DK/NA 6 7
1a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
LIKELY VOTERS......... CANDIDATE CHOICE GIVEN CAND CHOICE Q1 Tot Obama McCain Made up 83% 82% 83% Might change 16 17 15 DK/NA 2 2 2
8. Is your opinion of -- Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 56% 23% 83% 55% 48% 62% 47% 93% Unfavorable 34 68 10 31 42 28 42 1 Hvn't hrd enough 8 8 6 10 8 7 8 4 REFUSED 3 1 2 4 2 4 3 2
TREND: Is your opinion of Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS. Sep 16 Aug 13 2008 2008 Favorable 56 57 Unfavorable 34 31 Hvn't hrd enough 8 9 REFUSED 3 3
9. Is your opinion of -- John McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 56% 94% 22% 62% 65% 49% 67% 18% Unfavorable 35 5 65 29 28 41 27 71 Hvn't hrd enough 6 1 11 6 4 8 5 7 REFUSED 2 - 2 3 2 2 2 5
TREND: Is your opinion of John McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS. Sep 16 Aug 13 2008 2008 Favorable 56 54 Unfavorable 35 35 Hvn't hrd enough 6 8 REFUSED 2 3
10. Is your opinion of -- Joe Biden favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 48% 28% 65% 48% 49% 48% 45% 69% Unfavorable 25 51 7 24 31 20 30 5 Hvn't hrd enough 26 21 28 27 19 31 23 25 REFUSED 1 1 - 2 1 1 1 1
11. Is your opinion of -- Sarah Palin favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 42% 80% 16% 40% 48% 37% 51% 11% Unfavorable 32 4 56 30 27 36 27 54 Hvn't hrd enough 25 15 27 28 25 25 22 33 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 1 - 3
12. Do you think John McCain's selection of Sarah Palin as his vice presidential running mate was a good choice or a bad choice?
LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Good choice 58% 85% 35% 60% 63% 55% 64% 31% Bad choice 33 10 54 30 28 37 28 60 DK/NA 8 5 10 10 9 8 8 9
13. Do you think Barack Obama's selection of Joe Biden as his vice presidential running mate was a good choice or a bad choice?
LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Good choice 59% 40% 75% 59% 56% 61% 55% 87% Bad choice 30 45 19 30 34 27 33 9 DK/NA 11 15 7 11 10 12 12 4
14. Does John McCain's choice of Sarah Palin for Vice President make you more likely to vote for McCain for President, less likely, or doesn't it make a difference?
LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk More likely 27% 48% 10% 28% 29% 25% 30% 7% Less likely 25 7 40 23 21 28 21 31 Doesn't make diff 47 42 49 47 48 45 47 61 DK/NA 2 3 1 1 2 2 1 -
15. Does Barack Obama's choice of Joe Biden for Vice President make you more likely to vote for Obama for President, less likely, or doesn't it make a difference?
LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk More likely 22% 9% 32% 22% 21% 23% 20% 35% Less likely 11 14 6 13 14 10 13 1 Doesn't make diff 65 76 61 64 65 66 65 62 DK/NA 1 - 2 1 - 2 1 2
16. Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: The vice presidential candidates picked by Barack Obama and John McCain have little to do with which candidate I will vote for, for president.
LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Agree 57% 52% 61% 56% 59% 55% 53% 68% Disagree 41 47 37 42 40 41 44 31 DK/NA 2 2 2 2 1 4 3 1
21. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 25% 56% 7% 20% 26% 25% 29% 5% Disapprove 71 38 93 74 70 72 67 93 DK/NA 4 5 - 6 4 4 4 2
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
LIKELY VOTERS. Sep 16 Aug 13 2008 2008 Approve 25 26 Disapprove 71 70 DK/NA 4 4
26. Which of the following will be the single most important issue in your vote in the election for President this year? (READ OPTIONS)
LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Terrorism 10% 20% 3% 9% 12% 8% 12% - The war in Iraq 13 7 17 12 11 14 14 10 The economy 51 43 56 53 50 51 48 63 Illegal immigration 5 7 4 4 5 5 3 4 Energy policy 8 11 5 7 13 4 9 1 Health care 9 6 10 10 5 12 8 13 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 3 2 3 3 2 4 3 8 DK/NA 2 3 3 1 3 2 3 -
TREND: Which of the following will be the single most important issue in your vote in the election for President this year? (READ OPTIONS) na = not asked
LIKELY VOTERS. Sep 16 Aug 13 2008 2008 Terrorism 10 10 The war in Iraq 13 17 The economy 51 51 Illegal immigration 5 6 Energy policy 8 na Health care 9 9 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 3 3 DK/NA 2 3
27. As you think about your own financial situation, which of the following economic issues worries you the most right now - A) declining retirement fund values, B) declining real estate values, C) rising health care costs D) rising gasoline prices, or E) rising food prices?
LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk A) Retirement funds 17% 19% 14% 19% 15% 19% 17% 15% B) Real estate vals 14 15 18 12 15 14 14 10 C) Health care cost 28 21 29 31 26 30 28 35 D) Gasoline prices 22 25 19 22 26 18 21 18 E) Food prices 15 16 17 12 14 16 15 18 DK/NA 4 4 3 5 4 4 4 4
TREND: As you think about your own financial situation, which of the following economic issues worries you the most right now - A) declining retirement fund values, B) declining real estate values, C) rising health care costs D)rising gasoline prices, or E) rising food prices?
LIKELY VOTERS. Sep 16 Aug 13 2008 2008 A) Retirement funds 17 15 B) Real estate vals 14 13 C) Health care cost 28 23 D) Gasoline prices 22 28 E) Food prices 15 16 DK/NA 4 5
28. How likely is it that the presidential debates could change your mind about who you will vote for this year? Very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely, or not likely at all?
LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Very likely 7% 2% 6% 10% 6% 7% 7% 4% Smwht likely 19 17 15 26 19 20 19 7 Not too likely 21 19 18 25 21 21 23 16 Not likely at all 53 62 60 39 54 52 51 72 DK/NA 1 - - 1 - 1 1 1
29. How likely is it that the vice-presidential debate could change your mind about who you will vote for this year? Very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely, or not likely at all?
LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Very likely 4% 2% 4% 6% 3% 5% 5% - Smwht likely 13 13 11 17 12 14 12 6 Not too likely 19 21 13 23 18 19 20 14 Not likely at all 63 64 72 51 66 60 62 77 DK/NA 1 - - 3 - 2 1 2
30. Which of the following statements do you agree with: John McCain is the candidate who will bring change or Barack Obama is the candidate who will bring change or Neither will bring change?
LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk McCain 26% 57% 6% 24% 30% 23% 32% 3% Obama 42 10 73 37 35 47 32 88 Neither 28 29 19 35 31 25 32 7 DK/NA 4 4 2 5 4 4 4 2
31. Which of the following statements do you agree with: I will be better off a year from now if John McCain is elected president or I will be better off a year from now if Barack Obama is elected president or I will not be better off a year from now?
LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Better off/McCain 28% 61% 7% 23% 35% 22% 35% 4% Better off/Obama 32 6 63 24 25 39 23 72 Not be better off 33 29 23 45 35 32 36 16 DK/NA 7 3 7 8 5 8 6 8
32. Who do you think better understands the economy - John McCain or Barack Obama?
LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk McCain 43% 82% 13% 42% 49% 37% 53% 4% Obama 48 12 80 46 42 53 40 82 DK/NA 9 6 7 13 8 10 7 14
33. Who do you think better understands foreign policy - John McCain or Barack Obama?
LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk McCain 64% 95% 34% 71% 72% 58% 75% 23% Obama 27 5 51 22 23 31 18 68 DK/NA 8 1 15 7 5 11 6 9
34. If John McCain is elected President, do you think your taxes will go up, go down, or stay about the same?
LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Up 34% 16% 52% 31% 24% 43% 28% 69% Down 8 13 4 6 8 7 9 - Same 55 69 41 58 65 46 60 27 DK/NA 3 3 3 4 2 4 3 5
35. If Barack Obama is elected President, do you think your taxes will go up, go down, or stay about the same?
LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Up 54% 82% 29% 55% 58% 50% 61% 25% Down 12 3 24 8 12 12 7 28 Same 31 11 43 34 28 33 29 40 DK/NA 4 4 4 3 2 5 3 7
36. Barack Obama says he will cut taxes for 95 percent of working families. John McCain says Obama will actually raise taxes overall on most American families. Whom do you believe?
LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk McCain 44% 82% 13% 47% 54% 36% 54% 8% Obama 40 7 73 32 35 44 29 80 DK/NA 16 11 14 21 11 21 18 12