New Jersey (NJ) Poll * September 17, 2008 * Lautenberg Holds 9-Pt. Lead In - Quinnipiac University

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September 17, 2008 - Lautenberg Holds 9-Pt. Lead In New Jersey Senate Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Low Approval Haunts Corzine In Race With Christie

Word format Less than seven weeks before Election Day, New Jersey Democratic Sen. Frank Lautenberg leads Republican challenger Dick Zimmer 48 - 39 percent among likely voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
This compares to a 48 - 41 lead for Sen. Lautenberg in an August 12 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.
In this latest survey, Sen. Lautenberg gets a lukewarm 44 - 38 percent approval rating. Voters say 54 - 40 percent, including 50 percent of Democrats, that Lautenberg is too old to serve another six-year term in the U.S. Senate.
But Zimmer gets only a 24 - 8 percent favorability rating, while 66 percent of voters don't know enough about him to form an opinion. Lautenberg has a 43 - 34 percent favorability, with 21 percent who don't know enough to form an opinion.
In the matchup, Lautenberg leads 79 - 10 percent among Democrats and 46 - 35 percent among independent voters. Republicans back Zimmer 82 - 13 percent.
"Voters may feel Sen. Frank Lautenberg is too old, and his job approval rating isn't the greatest, but against a weak Republican opponent he is doing just fine in his bid for re-election," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"Lautenberg's nine-point lead may have a lot to do with the fact that two thirds of the voters say they don't know enough to form an opinion about his challenger, former Rep. Dick Zimmer. With seven weeks to go, the Republicans will need a real October surprise to turn this race around."
Governor Corzine
New Jersey voters disapprove 51 - 40 percent of the job Gov. Jon Corzine is doing, his fourth negative score this year. Democrats approve of the Governor 60 - 31 percent, while Republicans disapprove 75 - 19 percent and independent voters turn thumbs down 52 - 38 percent.
In a hypothetical matchup for the 2009 Governor's race, Corzine gets 42 percent to 40 percent for federal prosecutor Christopher Christie, a possible Republican challenger. In that race, independent voters back Christie 41 - 38 percent.
Voters say 50 - 37 percent that Corzine does not deserve to be reelected. Among Democrats, 25 percent say the Governor does not deserve to be reelected.
By a 46 - 42 percent margin, voters have an unfavorable opinion of Corzine. Christie gets only a 25 - 7 percent favorability, with 67 percent who don't know enough about him to form an opinion.
Only 35 percent of New Jersey voters are "very satisfied" or "somewhat satisfied" with the way things are going in the state, while 65 percent are "somewhat dissatisfied" or "very dissatisfied."
"The hypothetical matchup between Gov. Jon Corzine and prosecutor Christopher Christie is still a dead heat, but at least this time the Governor is two points on the right side of the split," Richards said. "Corzine's job approval rating has slipped a couple of more points and Christie is leading among independent voters who often decide New Jersey elections."
From September 10 - 14, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,214 New Jersey registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points. The survey includes 1,187 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and nationally as a public service and for research. For more data -- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.
2. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Frank Lautenberg the Democrat, and Dick Zimmer the Republican for whom would you vote?(If undecided q2) As of today, do you lean more toward Lautenberg or Zimmer? This table includes "Leaners".
LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Lautenberg 48% 13% 79% 46% 42% 54% 42% 78% Zimmer 39 82 10 35 47 32 47 15 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - DK/NA 12 5 10 18 11 14 10 7 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Lautenberg 67% 48% 41% 51% 36% Zimmer 23 38 47 35 51 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - DK/NA 10 13 11 13 13
TREND: If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Frank Lautenberg the Democrat, and Dick Zimmer the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Lautenberg or Zimmer? This table includes "Leaners".
LIKELY VOTERS. Sep 17 Aug 12 2008 2008 Lautenberg 48 48 Zimmer 39 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - DK/NA 12 11
2a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
LIKELY VOTERS......... CANDIDATE CHOICE GIVEN CAND CHOICE Q2 Tot Laut Zimmer Made up 72% 69% 76% Might change 25 28 22 DK/NA 3 3 2
3. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Jon Corzine the Democrat and Christopher Christie the Republican, for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED VOTERS................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Corzine 42% 9% 72% 38% 38% 45% 33% 71% Christie 40 78 13 41 47 35 49 12 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 2 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - - 1 1 1 1 2 DK/NA 16 13 14 20 12 19 17 14 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Corzine 64% 39% 35% 46% 30% Christie 25 38 45 42 53 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 2 3 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 1 1 1 - DK/NA 11 20 16 11 16
TREND: If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Jon Corzine the Democrat, and Christopher Christie the Republican, for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED VOTERS Sep 17 Aug 12 2008 2008 Corzine 42 40 Christie 40 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 DK/NA 16 17
4. Is your opinion of -- Jon Corzine favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
REGISTERED VOTERS................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 42% 16% 67% 37% 37% 45% 34% 67% Unfavorable 46 76 21 50 55 39 54 26 Hvn't hrd enough 9 7 10 10 6 12 9 6 REFUSED 3 2 3 2 2 3 3 1 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Favorable 64% 39% 31% 47% 33% Unfavorable 28 47 52 42 59 Hvn't hrd enough 6 11 12 9 7 REFUSED 2 3 6 1 1
TREND: Is your opinion of -- Jon Corzine favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
REGISTERED VOTERS Sep 17 Aug 12 2008 2008 Favorable 42 39 Unfavorable 46 46 Hvn't hrd enough 9 10 REFUSED 3 5
5. Is your opinion of -- Christopher Christie favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
REGISTERED VOTERS................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 25% 40% 12% 28% 31% 20% 30% 10% Unfavorable 7 2 11 6 8 5 5 20 Hvn't hrd enough 67 57 75 65 58 74 64 66 REFUSED 2 1 2 1 2 1 1 4 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Favorable 29% 22% 29% 22% 29% Unfavorable 10 7 8 3 5 Hvn't hrd enough 58 69 62 73 65 REFUSED 2 1 2 2 1
TREND: Is your opinion of Christopher Christie favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
REGISTERED VOTERS Sep 17 Aug 12 2008 2008 Favorable 25 21 Unfavorable 7 7 Hvn't hrd enough 67 69 REFUSED 2 2
6. Is your opinion of -- Dick Zimmer favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 24% 44% 8% 23% 32% 18% 27% 14% Unfavorable 8 2 14 8 11 6 8 10 Hvn't hrd enough 66 52 76 68 56 74 64 74 REFUSED 2 1 2 1 1 2 2 2 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Favorable 20% 24% 28% 22% 26% Unfavorable 9 10 10 5 7 Hvn't hrd enough 71 64 58 73 66 REFUSED - 3 3 1 1
TREND: Is your opinion of Dick Zimmer favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS. Sep 17 Aug 12 2008 2008 Favorable 24 25 Unfavorable 8 12 Hvn't hrd enough 66 62 REFUSED 2 2
7. Is your opinion of -- Frank Lautenberg favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 43% 15% 64% 45% 42% 45% 42% 57% Unfavorable 34 68 10 34 45 26 41 15 Hvn't hrd enough 21 16 24 20 12 28 16 23 REFUSED 2 2 2 1 1 2 1 4 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Favorable 47% 46% 39% 49% 33% Unfavorable 25 32 42 30 45 Hvn't hrd enough 28 19 17 20 21 REFUSED - 3 2 1 1
TREND: Is your opinion of Frank Lautenberg favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS. Sep 17 Aug 12 2008 2008 Favorable 43 43 Unfavorable 34 35 Hvn't hrd enough 21 19 REFUSED 2 3
17. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jon Corzine is handling his job as Governor?
REGISTERED VOTERS................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 40% 19% 60% 38% 36% 44% 33% 62% Disapprove 51 75 31 52 58 46 57 29 DK/NA 9 7 9 10 7 10 10 10 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Approve 60% 41% 30% 44% 27% Disapprove 35 51 56 48 63 DK/NA 4 8 13 8 10
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jon Corzine is handling his job as Governor?
REGISTERED VOTERS...................................... Highest Lowest Approve Approve Sep 17 Aug 12 Jun 11 Feb 20 Dec 11 Apr 18 Apr 26 2008 2008 2008 2008 2007 2007 2006 Approve 40 42 38 37 46 51 35 Disapprove 51 48 52 52 43 36 42 DK/NA 9 10 11 12 11 13 23
18. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
REGISTERED VOTERS................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 24% 14% 37% 18% 18% 29% 20% 42% Disapprove 58 72 41 65 67 50 61 43 DK/NA 18 14 23 17 16 21 19 15 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Approve 33% 26% 17% 26% 17% Disapprove 46 58 64 57 61 DK/NA 21 16 18 17 22
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
REGISTERED VOTERS...................................... Highest Lowest Approve Approve Sep 17 Aug 12 Jun 11 Feb 20 Dec 11 Jan 26 Jul 14 2008 2008 2008 2008 2007 2005 2006 Approve 24 25 25 26 28 44 20 Disapprove 58 59 57 54 53 31 71 DK/NA 18 16 18 20 19 25 10
19. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Frank Lautenberg is handling his job as United States Senator?
LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 44% 18% 65% 43% 38% 49% 41% 62% Disapprove 38 68 16 37 49 28 42 18 DK/NA 18 14 19 20 12 23 17 20 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Approve 49% 45% 40% 47% 38% Disapprove 29 36 43 38 44 DK/NA 21 19 17 15 17
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Frank Lautenberg is handling his job as United States Senator?
LIKELY VOTERS. Sep 17 Aug 12 2008 2008 Approve 44 46 Disapprove 38 38 DK/NA 18 16
20. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Robert Menendez is handling his job as United States Senator?
REGISTERED VOTERS................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 35% 17% 49% 34% 32% 37% 30% 43% Disapprove 31 53 13 32 41 23 34 22 DK/NA 34 30 38 34 27 41 36 34 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Approve 51% 33% 31% 32% 32% Disapprove 21 30 35 32 37 DK/NA 28 37 35 37 31
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Robert Menendez is handling his job as United States Senator? (* also 39% on 3/20/06)
REGISTERED VOTERS...................................... Highest Lowest Approve Approve Sep 17 Aug 12 Jun 11 Feb 20 Dec 11 Dec 7 Feb 20 2008 2008 2008 2008 2007 2006 * 2008 Approve 35 33 36 30 34 39 30 Disapprove 31 34 26 31 34 37 31 DK/NA 34 33 37 39 32 24 39
22. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in New Jersey today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or ery dissatisfied?
REGISTERED VOTERS................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Very satisfied 3% - 5% 3% 3% 3% 2% 3% Smwht satisfied 32 19 45 28 26 36 29 38 Smwht dissatisfied 36 40 32 37 36 36 36 35 Very dissatisfied 29 40 18 31 34 25 33 22 DK/NA - 1 1 - - - - 1 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Very satisfied 2% 2% 4% 6% - Smwht satisfied 36 35 31 28 23 Smwhtdissatisfied 43 37 34 34 32 Very dissatisfied 18 26 30 31 43 DK/NA 1 - - - 1
TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in New Jersey today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
REGISTERED VOTERS.................................... Sep 17 Aug 12 Jun 11 Feb 20 Dec 11 Feb 28 Dec 6 2008 2008 2008 2008 2007 2007 2006 Very satisfied 3 2 3 4 3 3 2 Smwht satisfied 32 30 29 29 35 37 34 Smwht dissatisfied 36 35 35 33 32 34 38 Very dissatisfied 29 32 33 33 30 25 25 DK/NA - 1 1 1 1 1 1
23. Looking ahead to the 2009 election for Governor, do you feel that Jon Corzine deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
REGISTERED VOTERS................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Yes 37% 14% 60% 33% 34% 39% 31% 59% No 50 80 25 53 58 43 57 28 DK/NA 13 7 15 15 8 18 12 12 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Yes 51% 36% 30% 39% 30% No 33 47 59 51 62 DK/NA 16 17 11 11 8
TREND: Looking ahead to the 2009 election for Governor, do you feel that Jon Corzine deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
REGISTERED VOTERS............. Sep 17 Aug 12 Feb 20 Dec 11 2008 2008 2008 2007 Yes 37 37 32 44 No 50 50 51 43 DK/NA 13 12 17 13
24. Since Jon Corzine became Governor in January 2006, do you feel that things in New Jersey have gotten better, gotten worse, or stayed about the same?
REGISTERED VOTERS................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Better 10% 5% 16% 8% 9% 11% 7% 17% Worse 39 57 22 41 45 34 43 23 The same 47 36 56 48 44 49 46 56 DK/NA 4 2 6 3 2 5 4 5 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Better 21% 9% 8% 11% 5% Worse 27 37 44 42 46 The same 50 51 44 43 43 DK/NA 2 4 4 3 6
TREND: Since Jon Corzine became Governor in January 2006, do you feel that things in New Jersey have gotten better, gotten worse, or stayed about the same?
REGISTERED VOTERS............................. Sep 17 Aug 12 Jun 11 Feb 20 Dec 11 Feb 28 2008 2008 2008 2008 2007 2007 Better 10 9 10 10 14 20% Worse 39 39 39 35 25 15 The same 47 49 50 53 59 62 DK/NA 4 3 2 2 2 3
25. At age 84, do you think Frank Lautenberg is too old to effectively serve another 6 year term as United States Senator, or not?
LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Yes 54% 60% 50% 53% 53% 55% 54% 48% No 40 33 44 41 43 38 39 49 DK/NA 6 7 6 6 5 7 7 3 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Yes 48% 53% 58% 58% 52% No 50 39 38 35 42 DK/NA 2 8 4 7 7
TREND: At age 84, do you think Frank Lautenberg is too old to effectively serve another 6 year term as United States Senator, or not?
LIKELY VOTERS. Sep 17 Aug 12 2008 2008 Yes 54 55 No 40 39 DK/NA 6 6