New Jersey (NJ) Poll * October 21, 2008 * Obama, Lautenberg Headed For B - Quinnipiac University

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October 21, 2008 - Obama, Lautenberg Headed For Big Win In New Jersey, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters Give Corzine Stimulus Plan Mixed Reviews

Word format In what could be a huge Democratic landslide in New Jersey, Sen. Barack Obama tops Republican Sen. John McCain 59 - 36 percent while incumbent Democratic Sen. Frank Lautenberg leads Republican challenger Dick Zimmer 55 - 33 percent among likely voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
This compares to a 48 - 45 percent Sen. Obama lead in a September 16 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. Sen. Lautenberg held a 48 - 39 percent likely voter lead September 17.
In this latest survey, white voters back Obama 50 - 44 percent, reversing a 56 - 37 percent McCain lead with whites September 16. The Democrat gets 97 percent of black voters, with 3 percent undecided. Men back Obama 56 - 39 percent, reversing a 53 - 40 percent McCain lead, while women stay with Obama 62 - 32 percent, compared to 54 - 38 percent.
Independent voters shift from 47 - 43 percent for McCain to 55 - 38 percent for Obama.
The Democrat leads 69 - 27 percent among voters 18 to 34 years old, 60 - 35 percent among voters 35 to 54 and 52 - 41 percent among voters over 55 years old.
"The nation's economic crisis has turned New Jersey dark blue, virtually assuring a Democratic sweep with Sen. Barack Obama carrying the state and Sen. Frank Lautenberg winning re-election," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"Barring a major development in world affairs, or in the fortunes of Sen. John McCain and former U.S. Rep. Dick Zimmer, Nov. 4 is shaping up as a big night for New Jersey Democrats."
New Jersey likely voters say 58 - 30 percent that Obama better understands the economy.
Obama gets a 65 - 27 percent favorability, compared to a 47 - 47 percent split for McCain. Democratic running mate, Sen. Joe Biden, gets a 61 - 22 percent favorability while Republican running mate, Gov. Sarah Palin, gets a negative 33 - 50 percent.
"The poll shows not only Democratic strength, but Republican weakness. Only 30 percent say John McCain is the best candidate to handle the economy, and Sarah Palin's favorability rating is in negative territory," Richards added.
Sen. Lautenberg wins 81 - 9 percent among Democrats and 49 - 36 percent among independent voters while Republicans back Zimmer 79 - 15 percent.
Lautenberg gets a 47 - 25 percent favorability while 63 percent of voters say they don't know enough about Zimmer to form an opinion.
"You can't win if the voters don't know who you are - unless they really dislike your opponent. In this case, voters like Lautenberg well enough while two-thirds know very little about Zimmer," Richards said.
New Jersey voters split on one component of Gov. Jon Corzine's economic stimulus package, with 44 percent supporting and 42 percent opposed to investing $250 million from state pension funds in community banks to encourage small business loans. Democrats support the measure 53 - 31 percent while Republicans oppose it 55 - 37 percent and independent voters turn thumbs down 46 - 39 percent.
Voters support 55 - 31 percent another stimulus measure, using $45 million from the State Housing & Mortgage Finance Agency to help homeowners avoid foreclosure. The measure gets 69 - 15 percent support from Democrats and 51 - 35 percent support from independent voters, while Republicans oppose it 52 - 35 percent.
"Gov. John Corzine's emergency stimulus package gets mixed reaction from the voters, which is understandable for something so complicated," Richards said. "The good news for the Governor is that it did not get immediate voter rejection - the reaction that greeted his plan to double tolls on the Turnpike and Garden State Parkway to solve the state's financial problems."
From October 16 - 19, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,184 New Jersey likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percent.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and nationally as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feeds - http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.
1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners".
LIKELY VOTERS............................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Obama 59% 11% 88% 55% 56% 62% 50% 97% McCain 36 87 7 38 39 32 44 - SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 2 1 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - DK/NA 5 1 5 5 5 5 5 3 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Obama 77% 63% 47% 58% 51% McCain 19 32 47 35 46 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - 2 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - DK/NA 4 5 6 6 3 WHITE........................... AGE IN YRS....... NoColl College 18-34 35-54 55+ Degree Degree Men Wom Cath Jew Obama 69% 60% 52% 46% 57% 48% 53% 44% 73% McCain 27 35 41 47 39 46 42 52 23 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 1 1 1 1 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - - DK/NA 2 4 6 6 2 5 4 4 4 PresVt2004.. Bush Kerry Obama 20% 89% McCain 75 9 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - DK/NA 5 2
TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners".
LIKELY VOTERS......... Oct 21 Sep 16 Aug 13 2008 2008 2008 Obama 59 48 51 McCain 36 45 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - DK/NA 5 6 7
1a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
LIKELY VOTERS......... CANDIDATE CHOICE GIVEN CAND CHOICE Q1 Tot Obama McCain Made up 88% 89% 86% Might change 11 10 12 DK/NA 1 - 2
2. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Frank Lautenberg the Democrat, and Dick Zimmer the Republican for whom would you vote?(If undecided q2) As of today, do you lean more toward Lautenberg or Zimmer? This table includes "Leaners".
LIKELY VOTERS SENATE................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Lautenberg 55% 15% 81% 49% 55% 55% 50% 85% Zimmer 33 79 9 36 38 29 40 7 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 1 - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - DK/NA 11 6 10 14 7 15 9 8 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Lautenberg 68% 62% 47% 49% 44% Zimmer 20 28 45 30 46 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - DK/NA 12 10 7 20 10
TREND: If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Frank Lautenberg the Democrat, and Dick Zimmer the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Lautenberg or Zimmer? This table includes "Leaners".
LIKELY VOTERS......... Oct 21 Sep 17 Aug 12 2008 2008 2008 Lautenberg 55 48 48 Zimmer 33 39 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - DK/NA 11 12 11
2a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
LIKELY VOTERS SENATE..... CANDIDATE CHOICE GIVEN CAND CHOICE Q2 Tot Laut Zimmer Made up 79% 78% 80% Might change 20 21 19 DK/NA 1 2 1
3. Is your opinion of -- Dick Zimmer favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 22% 40% 11% 25% 28% 17% 24% 17% Unfavorable 12 7 16 10 12 11 12 13 Hvn't hrd enough 63 51 70 63 58 68 61 69 REFUSED 3 2 3 3 1 4 3 1 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Favorable 14% 21% 32% 21% 26% Unfavorable 13 14 13 6 9 Hvn't hrd enough 69 63 53 68 63 REFUSED 3 2 2 5 3
TREND: Is your opinion of Dick Zimmer favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS......... Oct 21 Sep 17 Aug 12 2008 2008 2008 Favorable 22 24 25 Unfavorable 12 8 12 Hvn't hrd enough 63 66 62 REFUSED 3 2 2
4. Is your opinion of -- Frank Lautenberg favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 47% 19% 65% 44% 48% 45% 46% 66% Unfavorable 25 57 8 26 30 20 31 3 Hvn't hrd enough 26 23 25 27 20 31 21 29 REFUSED 3 1 2 3 2 3 3 1 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Favorable 58% 52% 43% 39% 38% Unfavorable 16 20 35 24 32 Hvn't hrd enough 24 26 21 33 27 REFUSED 2 2 2 4 3
TREND: Is your opinion of Frank Lautenberg favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS......... Oct 21 Sep 17 Aug 12 2008 2008 2008 Favorable 47 43 43 Unfavorable 25 34 35 Hvn't hrd enough 26 21 19 REFUSED 3 2 3
5. Is your opinion of -- Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 65% 24% 91% 60% 60% 69% 57% 98% Unfavorable 27 71 5 28 31 24 34 - Hvn't hrd enough 6 3 3 10 8 4 6 2 REFUSED 2 2 2 2 1 3 2 - Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Favorable 83% 69% 53% 62% 57% Unfavorable 13 23 37 28 38 Hvn't hrd enough 3 5 9 8 5 REFUSED 1 3 2 2 1
TREND: Is your opinion of Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS......... Oct 21 Sep 16 Aug 13 2008 2008 2008 Favorable 65 56 57 Unfavorable 27 34 31 Hvn't hrd enough 6 8 9 REFUSED 2 3 3
6. Is your opinion of -- John McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 47% 88% 23% 51% 50% 44% 53% 16% Unfavorable 47 9 70 41 43 50 41 80 Hvn't hrd enough 4 1 4 5 5 3 3 2 REFUSED 3 1 3 3 2 3 3 1 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Favorable 34% 43% 57% 44% 57% Unfavorable 59 49 35 51 38 Hvn't hrd enough 6 4 6 3 3 REFUSED 1 4 3 2 2
TREND: Is your opinion of John McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS......... Oct 21 Sep 16 Aug 13 2008 2008 2008 Favorable 47 56 54 Unfavorable 47 35 35 Hvn't hrd enough 4 6 8 REFUSED 3 2 3
7. Is your opinion of -- Joe Biden favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 61% 32% 82% 57% 59% 64% 59% 79% Unfavorable 22 53 5 23 27 18 26 4 Hvn't hrd enough 16 12 12 18 13 18 13 17 REFUSED 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 - Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Favorable 76% 62% 58% 59% 53% Unfavorable 10 21 22 26 29 Hvn't hrd enough 13 16 17 14 16 REFUSED - 1 3 - 1
TREND: Is your opinion of -- Joe Biden favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS. Oct 21 Sep 16 2008 2008 Favorable 61 48 Unfavorable 22 25 Hvn't hrd enough 16 26 REFUSED 1 1
8. Is your opinion of -- Sarah Palin favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 33% 74% 10% 35% 35% 31% 38% 7% Unfavorable 50 15 73 46 47 53 47 72 Hvn't hrd enough 16 10 16 17 17 15 14 19 REFUSED 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Favorable 19% 28% 42% 34% 44% Unfavorable 68 52 45 50 37 Hvn't hrd enough 12 19 11 16 18 REFUSED 1 1 2 - 2
TREND: Is your opinion of -- Sarah Palin favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
LIKELY VOTERS. Oct 21 Sep 16 2008 2008 Favorable 33 42 Unfavorable 50 32 Hvn't hrd enough 16 25 REFUSED 1 1
9. Who do you think better understands the economy - Barack Obama or John McCain?
LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Obama 58% 13% 86% 54% 56% 60% 50% 97% McCain 30 77 5 32 33 27 37 - DK/NA 12 10 8 14 10 13 13 3 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Obama 77% 58% 50% 60% 49% McCain 16 26 37 33 41 DK/NA 8 16 13 8 10
TREND: Who do you think better understands the economy - John McCain or Barack Obama?
LIKELY VOTERS. Oct 21 Sep 16 2008 2008 Obama 58 48 McCain 30 43 DK/NA 12 9
10. Who do you think better understands foreign policy - Barack Obama or John McCain?
LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Obama 37% 5% 63% 27% 30% 44% 30% 75% McCain 52 93 25 60 60 46 61 16 DK/NA 10 2 12 13 10 11 8 9 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Obama 48% 37% 29% 41% 32% McCain 37 49 60 53 63 DK/NA 15 13 11 5 5
TREND: Who do you think better understands foreign policy - John McCain or Barack Obama?
LIKELY VOTERS. Oct 21 Sep 16 2008 2008 Obama 37 27 McCain 52 64 DK/NA 10 8
11. Governor Corzine this week proposed a New Jersey economic stimulus package that has two key elements. Part of the stimulus package would invest 250 million dollars from the state pension fund in community banks to encourage loans to small businesses. Do you support or oppose this proposal?
LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Support 44% 37% 53% 39% 45% 44% 41% 58% Oppose 42 55 31 46 44 39 45 22 DK/NA 14 8 16 15 11 17 14 20 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Support 45% 50% 44% 37% 39% Oppose 36 36 44 48 49 DK/NA 19 14 12 15 12
12. Governor Corzine this week proposed a New Jersey economic stimulus package that has two key elements. Part of the stimulus package would use 45 million dollars from the State Housing and Mortgage Finance Agency to help homeowners in danger of losing their homes through foreclosure. Do you support or oppose this proposal?
LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Support 55% 35% 69% 51% 54% 56% 50% 82% Oppose 31 52 15 35 34 27 35 7 DK/NA 14 13 15 14 12 17 15 11 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Support 60% 61% 49% 55% 45% Oppose 25 25 35 33 40 DK/NA 15 15 16 12 15