New Jersey (NJ) Poll * November 19, 2008 * Corzine Leads Christie In Firs - Quinnipiac University

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November 19, 2008 - Corzine Leads Christie In First Look At '09 Gov Race, Quinnipiac University New Jersey Poll Finds; Most Say Governor Should Not Go To Washington

Word format In a first look at the 2009 election for Governor of New Jersey, Democratic incumbent Jon Corzine leads U.S. Attorney Christopher Christie, a possible Republican challenger, 42 - 36 percent among registered voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
Democrats support Gov. Corzine 75 - 10 percent while Christie leads 76 - 9 percent among Republicans and 38 - 32 percent among independent voters.
New Jersey voters disapprove 46 - 43 percent of the job Gov. Corzine is doing, his fifth negative score in surveys this year by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University, but slightly better than earlier numbers. Voters say 51 - 37 percent that Corzine does not deserve to be reelected.
Voters also say 54 - 30 percent that they do not want Corzine to become Treasury Secretary in the administration of President-elect Barack Obama. Democrats favor the move 43 - 40 percent while Republicans oppose it 75 - 13 and independent voters say no 56 - 29 percent.
"The long coattails of Barack Obama have reached down into New Jersey and helped Gov. Jon Corzine's re-election prospects, at least for now," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"Corzine leads potential GOP challenger Christopher Christie by six points after being virtually tied in August and September. And the Governor's approval rating, while still in negative territory, is his best in almost a year. A majority of voters still say Corzine does not deserve re-election, but the Governor is looking better, if indeed he decides to stay in Trenton for a second term.
Corzine also gets a negative 43 - 42 favorability rating, with 11 percent who don't know enough about him to form an opinion. Christie gets a 22 - 6 percent favorability, but 70 percent of New Jersey voters don't know enough about him to form an opinion.
Voters approve 44 - 10 percent, with 46 percent undecided, of the job Christie has done as U.S. Attorney. They say 42 - 15 percent, with 42 percent undecided, that Christie should run for Governor in 2009.
And if Christie runs and Corzine does not seek reelection, 31 percent say they would vote for the Republican, while 34 percent would vote for an unnamed Democratic candidate, with 34 percent undecided.
"If Corzine does not run, voters are split three ways among Christie, a generic Democratic candidate and 'don't know.' One problem is that Christie, while having established a seven-year reputation for putting more than 100 corrupt New Jersey politicians out of work and behind bars, is still not well enough known for 70 percent of voters to have an opinion about him," Richards said.
Only 10 percent of New Jersey voters say things have gotten better in New Jersey since Corzine became Governor, while 44 percent say they've gotten worse and 43 percent say they are the same.
Only 32 percent of New Jersey voters are "very satisfied" or "somewhat satisfied" with the way things are going in the state, while 67 percent are "somewhat dissatisfied" or "very dissatisfied."
In an open-ended question, where respondents can give any answer, 36 percent of voters say taxes are the biggest problem in New Jersey today, with 28 percent who list the economy and 9 percent who cite the state budget.
Voters split 45 - 45 percent over whether e-mail correspondence between Corzine and union leader Carla Katz, his former girlfriend, should be made public. This compares to a June 11 survey when voters said 52 - 39 percent that the e-mails should be kept private.
From November 13 - 17, Quinnipiac University surveyed 2,020 New Jersey registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.2 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and nationally as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed: http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.
1. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Jon Corzine the Democrat and Christopher Christie the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Corzine 42% 9% 75% 32% 41% 43% 36% 73% Christie 36 76 10 38 40 33 43 7 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 3 1 4 3 2 3 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 2 1 1 2 1 2 DK/NA 18 12 13 25 14 20 17 17 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Corzine 63% 47% 31% 41% 28% Christie 19 33 49 36 47 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 4 2 4 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 2 - 2 1 DK/NA 17 17 16 18 20
TREND: If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Jon Corzine the Democrat, and Christopher Christie the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Nov 19 Sep 17 Aug 12 2008 2008 2008 Corzine 42 42 40 Christie 36 40 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 2 DK/NA 18 16 17
2. Is your opinion of -- Jon Corzine favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 42% 14% 66% 34% 42% 41% 36% 67% Unfavorable 43 72 18 51 47 40 50 17 Hvn't hrd enough 11 11 12 11 8 14 10 15 REFUSED 4 3 4 4 2 5 5 - Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Favorable 61% 47% 31% 36% 30% Unfavorable 25 42 56 42 52 Hvn't hrd enough 13 8 9 16 14 REFUSED 1 3 5 6 5
TREND: Is your opinion of -- Jon Corzine favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Nov 19 Sep 17 Aug 12 2008 2008 2008 Favorable 42 42 39 Unfavorable 43 46 46 Hvn't hrd enough 11 9 10 REFUSED 4 3 5
3. Is your opinion of -- Christopher Christie favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 22% 42% 10% 22% 29% 16% 25% 6% Unfavorable 6 1 9 5 7 5 6 7 Hvn't hrd enough 70 56 79 72 63 77 68 86 REFUSED 2 1 2 2 1 3 2 1 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Favorable 17% 23% 28% 12% 28% Unfavorable 8 5 6 5 5 Hvn't hrd enough 72 70 65 81 65 REFUSED 2 2 1 2 2
TREND: Is your opinion of Christopher Christie favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Nov 19 Sep 17 Aug 12 2008 2008 2008 Favorable 22 25 21 Unfavorable 6 7 7 Hvn't hrd enough 70 67 69 REFUSED 2 2 2
4. Would you like to see Christopher Christie run for Governor in 2009 or not?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Yes 42% 67% 24% 46% 48% 38% 46% 22% No 15 4 26 11 15 15 13 31 DK/NA 42 29 50 43 37 47 41 47 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Yes 35% 39% 47% 46% 47% No 19 16 10 16 14 DK/NA 46 45 43 39 39
5. If Jon Corzine does not run for re-election next year, do you think you would vote for Christopher Christie, the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Christie 31% 75% 4% 30% 34% 28% 36% 3% Democrat 34 3 69 19 30 37 27 64 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 2 2 1 2 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - 1 - - - - DK/NA 34 21 26 48 34 34 35 33 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Christie 21% 30% 39% 23% 38% Democrat 50 36 24 37 25 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 1 - - - DK/NA 28 32 36 38 35
6. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jon Corzine is handling his job as Governor?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 43% 16% 66% 38% 42% 44% 38% 62% Disapprove 46 74 24 51 51 42 51 24 DK/NA 11 10 10 11 7 14 11 14 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Approve 61% 49% 34% 38% 30% Disapprove 29 42 57 49 57 DK/NA 10 9 9 14 12
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jon Corzine is handling his job as Governor?
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Nov 19 Sep 17 Aug 12 Jun 11 Feb 20 Apr 18 Apr 26 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2007 2006 Approve 43 40 42 38 37 51 35 Disapprove 46 51 48 52 52 36 42 DK/NA 11 9 10 11 12 13 23
7. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 28% 14% 42% 25% 26% 30% 25% 39% Disapprove 51 65 35 58 58 46 55 37 DK/NA 20 21 23 18 16 24 20 24 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Approve 35% 32% 21% 31% 20% Disapprove 40 47 60 52 61 DK/NA 25 21 19 17 18
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Nov 19 Sep 17 Aug 12 Jun 11 Feb 20 Jan 26 Jul 14 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2005 2006 Approve 28 24 25 25 26 44 20 Disapprove 51 58 59 57 54 31 71 DK/NA 20 18 16 18 20 25 10
8. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Frank Lautenberg is handling his job as United States Senator?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 50% 25% 70% 47% 47% 53% 48% 58% Disapprove 36 63 15 38 40 32 41 21 DK/NA 14 12 14 15 13 15 12 22 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Approve 63% 53% 42% 46% 45% Disapprove 19 35 47 35 41 DK/NA 17 11 11 19 14
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Frank Lautenberg is handling his job as United States Senator? (* also 55% on 9/23/1999 & 7/22/1999)
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Nov 19 Jun 11 Feb 20 Dec 11 Sep 25 Jul 27 Feb 20 2008 2008 2008 2007 2007 2000 * 2008 Approve 50 46 39 42 42 55 39 Disapprove 36 35 31 33 34 22 31 DK/NA 14 18 29 25 24 23 29
9. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Robert Menendez is handling his job as United States Senator?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 38% 18% 51% 39% 38% 38% 36% 41% Disapprove 30 49 16 31 37 24 32 18 DK/NA 32 33 34 31 26 38 33 41 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Approve 49% 44% 32% 28% 31% Disapprove 24 28 39 28 33 DK/NA 28 28 29 45 36
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Robert Menendez is handling his job as United States Senator? (* also 39% on 3/20/06)
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Nov 19 Sep 17 Aug 12 Jun 11 Feb 20 Dec 7 Feb 20 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2006 * 2008 Approve 38 35 33 36 30 39 30 Disapprove 30 31 34 26 31 37 31 DK/NA 32 34 33 37 39 24 39
10. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Christopher Christie is handling his job as United States Attorney for New Jersey?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 44% 64% 31% 48% 52% 37% 48% 33% Disapprove 10 3 16 8 11 10 8 16 DK/NA 46 33 53 45 37 53 43 52 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Approve 41% 47% 49% 38% 46% Disapprove 10 9 8 13 12 DK/NA 49 45 43 49 43
11. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 18% 45% 2% 15% 19% 16% 21% - Disapprove 78 48 96 80 76 79 75 95 DK/NA 4 7 2 5 5 4 4 5 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Approve 9% 14% 24% 20% 23% Disapprove 84 82 71 77 73 DK/NA 6 4 5 3 4
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Nov 19 Jun 12 Feb 21 Dec 13 Sep 26 Oct 18 Nov 19 2008 2008 2008 2007 2007 2001 2008 Approve 18 22 26 26 27 90 18 Disapprove 78 74 70 67 68 7 78 DK/NA 4 3 5 7 5 3 4
12. Is your opinion of -- Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 64% 25% 93% 60% 60% 67% 55% 93% Unfavorable 21 50 3 21 22 20 27 2 Hvn't hrd enough 11 19 3 13 13 9 13 3 REFUSED 4 7 1 6 5 4 5 2 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Favorable 76% 68% 50% 66% 56% Unfavorable 11 18 31 19 29 Hvn't hrd enough 9 11 13 12 10 REFUSED 3 4 7 3 5
TREND: Is your opinion of Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Nov 19 Jun 12 Feb 21 Sep 26 Jul 5 Apr 19 Mar 1 Jan 25 2008 2008 2008 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 Favorable 64 56 58 50 49 48 42 41 Unfavorable 21 32 21 23 21 15 11 9 Hvn't hrd enough 11 11 19 25 29 34 45 49 REFUSED 4 2 3 2 1 2 2 1
13. Would you like to see Jon Corzine become Treasury Secretary in the Obama administration or not?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Yes 30% 13% 43% 29% 30% 30% 26% 39% No 54 75 40 56 56 53 60 38 DK/NA 16 11 18 15 14 17 15 24 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Yes 36% 36% 22% 24% 28% No 46 49 62 60 59 DK/NA 18 15 16 16 13
14. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in New Jersey today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Very satisfied 3% 1% 5% 2% 3% 3% 2% 4% Smwht satisfied 29 15 43 24 29 29 26 41 Smwht dissatisfied 35 34 35 36 32 37 36 35 Very dissatisfied 32 49 16 37 34 31 34 19 DK/NA 1 1 1 - 1 1 1 - Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Very satisfied 6% 4% 1% 1% 2% Smwht satisfied 34 35 25 26 21 Smwht dissatisfied 39 33 33 36 35 Very dissatisfied 20 27 40 36 41 DK/NA 1 - - 1 1
TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in New Jersey today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
Nov 19 Sep 17 Aug 12 Jun 11 Feb 20 Dec 11 Feb 28 Dec 6 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2007 2007 2006 Very satisfied 3 3 2 3 4 3 3 2 Smwht satisfied 29 32 30 29 29 35 37 34 Smwht dissatisfied 35 36 35 35 33 32 34 38 Very dissatisfied 32 29 32 33 33 30 25 25 DK/NA 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 1
15. Looking ahead to the 2009 election for Governor, do you feel that Jon Corzine deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Yes/Deserves 37% 11% 61% 31% 37% 37% 32% 54% No/Does not 51 81 26 58 53 48 56 30 DK/NA 12 9 14 11 10 14 12 16 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Yes/Deserves 54% 44% 27% 35% 21% No/Does not 33 47 62 50 63 DK/NA 13 9 10 15 16
TREND: Looking ahead to the 2009 election for Governor, do you feel that Jon Corzine deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
Nov 19 Sep 17 Aug 12 Feb 20 Dec 11 2008 2008 2008 2008 2007 Yes 37 37 37 32 44 No 51 50 50 51 43 DK/NA 12 13 12 17 13
16. Since Jon Corzine became Governor in January 2006, do you feel that things in New Jersey have gotten better, gotten worse, or stayed about the same?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Better 10% 3% 18% 6% 11% 9% 7% 15% Worse 44 61 26 51 46 42 48 30 The same 43 34 52 41 41 44 42 55 DK/NA 3 3 5 2 2 5 3 1 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Better 19% 11% 6% 7% 4% Worse 28 42 49 49 53 The same 49 44 42 39 39 DK/NA 3 3 3 5 4
TREND: Since Jon Corzine became Governor in January 2006, do you feel that things in New Jersey have gotten better, gotten worse, or stayed about the same?
Nov 19 Sep 17 Aug 12 Jun 11 Feb 20 Dec 11 Feb 28 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2007 2007 Better 10 10 9 10 10 14 20% Worse 44 39 39 39 35 25 15 The same 43 47 49 50 53 59 62 DK/NA 3 4 3 2 2 2 3
17. What do you think is the most important problem facing New Jersey today?
Tot Taxes Total 36% Taxes general 12 Property tax 24 Economy Total 28% Economy general 12 Unemployment/jobs 12 Cost of living 3 Business leaving/ Outsourcing 1 Budget Total 9% Budget general 2 Budget cuts/Cuts in service 1 Budget deficits 3 Gov too big/Gov spending 2 Budget priorities 1 Politicians Total 5% Politicians/ Campaigns general 1 Political corruption 3 Governor/State leadership 1 Education Total 2% Education general 1 Funding education 1 Healthcare Total 2% Healthcare/Costs/Ins/HMO's 2 Crime Total 2% Crime/Violence general 1 Gangs/Youth crime 1 Mass Transit Total 1% Highway tolls 1 Gas prices 1% Poverty/Homeless 1% Housing general 1% Environment/Pollution 1% Other 2% DK/NA 4%
TREND: What do you think is the most important problem facing New Jersey today?
Nov 19 Feb 28 Dec 6 Jun 16 Apr 26 Mar 16 2008 2007 2006 2006 2006 2006 Budget/Spending Total 9% 4% 3% 7% 7% 10% Budget general 2 1 1 3 3 4 Budget cuts/Cuts in services 1 - - - - - Budget deficits 3 1 1 2 2 4 Government too big/Gov spending 2 1 1 1 1 1 Lack of/Late budget - - - - - Budget priorities 1 1 - 1 1 1 Crime Total 2% 1% 4% 4% 1% 4% Crime/Violence general 1 1 2 1 1 2 Gangs/Youth crime 1 - 1 2 - 1 Economy Total 28% 5% 6% 7% 7% 5% Economy general 12 1 - 2 2 1 Unemployment/jobs 12 2 3 2 2 2 Cost of living 3 2 2 2 3 2 Businesses leaving/Outsourcing 1 - - - - - Education Total 2% 6% 5% 6% 7% 6% Education general 1 2 3 3 4 4 Funding education 1 2 2 2 3 2 Energy costs Total 1% - - 1% 3% 1% Gas prices 1 - - 1 3 1 Environment/Pollution 1 1 1 3 2 2 Healthcare Total 2% 3% 2% 3% 2% 3% Healthcare/Costs/Insurance/HMO's 2 3 2 2 2 3 Housing Total 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% Housing general 1 - - 1 - - Politicians/Campaigns Total 5% 6% 8% 7% 8% 7% Politicians/Campaigns general 1 - 1 1 1 1 Political corruption 3 6 6 6 6 5 Governor/State leadership 1 - 1 - 1 1 Poverty/Homeless 1 - 1 - - 1 Taxes Total 36% 56% 53% 46% 41% 38% Taxes general 12 14 15 19 20 14 Property tax 24 42 38 26 21 24 Transportation/DMV Total 1% 1% 1% 1% - - Highway tolls 1 - - - - - Other 2 4 3 3 5 4 DK/NA 4 4 2 3 5 3
18. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jon Corzine is handling the current economic situation?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 31% 11% 50% 26% 31% 31% 29% 41% Disapprove 51 75 32 55 53 50 55 40 DK/NA 17 13 17 19 15 19 16 18 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Approve 44% 36% 23% 29% 22% Disapprove 39 49 58 54 59 DK/NA 17 15 20 17 19
19. A judge ruled that e-mail correspondence between Governor Corzine and union leader Carla Katz, his ex-girlfriend, should be made public. Corzine is appealing the ruling. Do you think these e-mails should be made public or kept private?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Public 45% 65% 33% 47% 49% 43% 48% 28% Private 45 27 58 43 41 48 42 64 DK/NA 10 8 9 10 11 9 10 8 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Public 31% 45% 55% 45% 50% Private 57 47 31 46 43 DK/NA 11 8 14 9 7
TREND: A judge ruled that e-mail correspondence between Governor Corzine and union leader Carla Katz, his ex-girlfriend, should be made public. Corzine is appealing the ruling. Do you think these e-mails should be made public or kept private?
Nov 19 Jun 11 2008 2008 Public 45% 39 Private 45 52 DK/NA 10 9