New Jersey (NJ) Poll * March 12, 2009 * Christie Opens 9-Point Lead Ov - Quinnipiac University

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March 12, 2009 - Christie Opens 9-Point Lead Over Corzine In NJ Gov Race, Quinnipiac University New Jersey Poll Finds; Prosecutor's Experience Helps Challenger

Word format Christopher Christie, the Republican challenger in this year's New Jersey Governor's race, leads Democratic incumbent Gov. Jon Corzine 46 - 37 percent, even though 61 percent of voters don't know enough about the former U.S. Attorney to form an opinion of him, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. This compares to a 44 - 38 percent Christie lead in a February 4 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.
In this latest survey, Democrats support Corzine 69 - 14 percent while Christie leads 87 - 4 percent among Republicans and 49 - 31 percent among independent voters. Men back the Republican 51 - 34 percent and women back him 41 - 39 percent.
Corzine leads former Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan 41 - 37 percent, even though 77 percent of New Jersey voters haven't heard enough about Lonegan to form an opinion.
Only 44 percent of voters were aware that Christie was a federal prosecutor who successfully forced more than 100 New Jersey politicians to leave office. But 42 percent of voters say that experience makes them more likely to vote for Christie.
Voters say 48 - 36 percent that his background as a prosecutor gives Christie the experience to be Governor. Voters say 49 - 37 percent it is better to have a new face such as Christie than a business man such as Corzine leading the state during the economic crisis.
"There are no good numbers for Gov. Jon Corzine in this poll, and since it was taken before his Draconian budget was released, his numbers could be even worse today," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"Chris Christie continues to widen his lead over Jon Corzine in the race for Governor and this poll indicates Christie could become stronger once he gets better known."
"Six out of 10 voters say they do not know enough about Christie to form an opinion and nearly as many say they were unaware he is the federal prosecutor who put more than 100 New Jersey politicians out of office," Richards added. "When told of his record as a prosecutor, about a third of those who did not have an opinion about him said they were more likely to vote for him after hearing about his record."
"But a third of voters, including one in five Republicans, say being a prosecutor has not given Christie enough experience to be Governor. On the other hand, half the voters say that in the current economic crisis the state needs a new face as governor, while only 37 percent say a businessman should lead the state."
In a possible Republican primary, Christie tops Lonegan 40 - 19 percent, with 32 percent undecided.
Voters disapprove 50 - 40 percent of the job Corzine is doing, continuing a six-month string of negative ratings. Independent voters disapprove 54 - 37 percent.
New Jersey voters say 53 - 34 percent that Corzine does not deserve to be reelected. Democrats want him back 61 - 24 percent, while Republicans say no 87 - 7 percent and independent voters turn thumbs down 57 - 28 percent.
Corzine also gets a negative 38 - 50 percent favorability rating. Christie gets a 31 - 7 percent favorability, but 61 percent of New Jersey voters don't know enough about him to form an opinion, unchanged from February 4. For Lonegan, 77 percent don't know enough.
Only 20 percent of New Jersey voters say Corzine's experience on Wall Street helps the state during this economic crisis, while 20 percent say it hurts the state and 56 percent say it makes no difference.
From March 4 - 9, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,386 New Jersey registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points. The survey includes 436 Republicans, with a margin of error of +/- 4.7 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and nationally as a public service and for research.
1. (If registered Republican) If the Republican primary for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were former prosecutor Christopher Christie, former Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan, Assemblyman Rick Merkt or Franklin Township Mayor Brian Levine, for whom would you vote?
Reg Reps Christie 40% Lonegan 19 Merkt 1 Levine 3 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 DK/NA 32
TREND: (If registered Republican)If the Republican primary for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Former prosecutor Christopher Christie, Former Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan, Assemblyman Rick Merkt or Franklin Township Mayor Brian Levine, for whom would you vote? (*someone else & wouldn't vote volunteered options not in option list)
Mar 12 Feb 4 2009 2009* Christie 40 44 Lonegan 19 17 Merkt 1 2 Levine 3 5 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 - DK/NA 32 32
2. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Jon Corzine the Democrat and Christopher Christie the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Corzine 37% 4% 69% 31% 34% 39% 30% 74% Christie 46 87 14 49 51 41 54 14 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 2 1 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 1 3 2 1 2 - DK/NA 15 7 16 15 11 17 13 12 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Corzine 53% 42% 27% 34% 28% Christie 27 41 55 44 59 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 4 1 DK/NA 18 14 15 17 11
TREND: If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Jon Corzine the Democrat, and Christopher Christie the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Mar 12 Feb 4 Nov 19 Sep 17 Aug 12 2009 2009 2008 2008 2008 Corzine 37 38 42 42 40 Christie 46 44 36 40 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 3 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 1 1 2 DK/NA 15 16 18 16 17
3. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Jon Corzine the Democrat and Steve Lonegan the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Corzine 41% 10% 75% 32% 39% 42% 34% 77% Lonegan 37 78 4 42 42 33 44 10 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 4 1 5 3 4 4 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 2 4 3 2 3 1 DK/NA 16 6 17 17 13 19 15 12 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Corzine 59% 47% 30% 36% 32% Lonegan 21 31 47 38 48 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 4 4 4 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 2 3 3 2 DK/NA 14 18 16 18 13
TREND: If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Jon Corzine the Democrat and Steve Lonegan the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Mar 12 Feb 4 2009 2009 Corzine 41 42 Lonegan 37 36 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 DK/NA 16 18
4. Is your opinion of -- Christopher Christie favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 31% 49% 13% 34% 36% 26% 36% 11% Unfavorable 7 3 9 7 8 5 6 14 Hvn't hrd enough 61 47 74 57 53 67 57 70 REFUSED 2 - 3 2 2 2 2 5 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Favorable 24% 29% 36% 26% 37% Unfavorable 14 5 3 8 7 Hvn't hrd enough 60 63 60 65 54 REFUSED 2 3 1 1 2
TREND: Is your opinion of -- Christopher Christie favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Mar 12 Feb 4 Nov 19 Sep 17 Aug 12 2009 2009 2008 2008 2008 Favorable 31 31 22 25 21 Unfavorable 7 7 6 7 7 Hvn't hrd enough 61 61 70 67 69 REFUSED 2 1 2 2 2
5. Is your opinion of -- Steve Lonegan favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 15% 27% 4% 17% 20% 11% 17% 5% Unfavorable 7 4 10 6 10 5 7 10 Hvn't hrd enough 77 67 86 75 69 83 75 85 REFUSED 1 1 - 2 1 1 1 - Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Favorable 12% 16% 15% 9% 22% Unfavorable 5 8 7 7 7 Hvn't hrd enough 83 75 77 83 71 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1
TREND: Is your opinion of -- Steve Lonegan favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Mar 12 Feb 4 2009 2009 Favorable 15 15 Unfavorable 7 6 Hvn't hrd enough 77 78 REFUSED 1 1
6. Is your opinion of -- Jon Corzine favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 38% 8% 67% 33% 36% 40% 31% 62% Unfavorable 50 86 19 54 53 47 57 21 Hvn't hrd enough 9 4 10 9 8 9 7 15 REFUSED 4 1 4 4 3 4 4 2 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Favorable 53% 45% 32% 35% 25% Unfavorable 37 40 61 50 65 Hvn't hrd enough 7 12 2 10 8 REFUSED 4 3 5 5 2
TREND: Is your opinion of -- Jon Corzine favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Mar 12 Feb 4 Nov 19 Sep 17 Aug 12 2009 2009 2008 2008 2008 Favorable 38 41 42 42 39 Unfavorable 50 49 43 46 46 Hvn't hrd enough 9 7 11 9 10 REFUSED 4 3 4 3 5
7. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jon Corzine is handling his job as Governor?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 40% 11% 67% 37% 38% 42% 36% 70% Disapprove 50 85 21 54 53 48 57 21 DK/NA 10 4 12 9 9 11 7 9 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Approve 55% 46% 33% 34% 32% Disapprove 37 40 59 55 64 DK/NA 7 14 8 11 5
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jon Corzine is handling his job as Governor?
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Mar 12 Feb 4 Nov 19 Sep 17 Aug 12 Apr 18 Apr 26 2009 2009 2008 2008 2008 2007 2006 Approve 40 41 43 40 42 51 35 Disapprove 50 50 46 51 48 36 42 DK/NA 10 8 11 9 10 13 23
8. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 30% 12% 48% 26% 26% 33% 25% 44% Disapprove 53 76 30 60 62 46 57 40 DK/NA 18 13 23 15 13 21 17 16 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Approve 42% 33% 27% 26% 20% Disapprove 43 47 58 52 66 DK/NA 15 19 15 22 13
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Mar 12 Feb 4 Nov 19 Sep 17 Aug 12 Jan 26 Jul 14 2009 2009 2008 2008 2008 2005 2006 Approve 30 30 28 24 25 44 20 Disapprove 53 54 51 58 59 31 71 DK/NA 18 16 20 18 16 25 10
9. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Frank Lautenberg is handling his job as United States Senator?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 47% 19% 70% 43% 42% 50% 42% 66% Disapprove 37 68 12 40 46 29 41 17 DK/NA 17 13 18 17 12 21 17 16 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Approve 61% 48% 48% 42% 39% Disapprove 26 37 36 33 46 DK/NA 13 16 16 25 15
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Frank Lautenberg is handling his job as United States Senator? (*also 55% on 9/23/1999 & 7/22/1999)
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Mar 12 Feb 4 Nov 19 Jun 11 Feb 20 Jul 27 Feb 20 2009 2009 2008 2008 2008 2000* 2008 Approve 47 45 50 46 39 55 39 Disapprove 37 38 36 35 31 22 31 DK/NA 17 16 14 18 29 23 29
10. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Robert Menendez is handling his job as United States Senator?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 41% 16% 61% 38% 41% 40% 37% 61% Disapprove 33 56 11 39 42 25 35 13 DK/NA 27 29 28 24 17 34 28 26 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Approve 54% 41% 38% 39% 36% Disapprove 29 33 33 28 37 DK/NA 18 26 29 33 27
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Robert Menendez is handling his job as United States Senator?
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Mar 12 Feb 4 Nov 19 Sep 17 Aug 12 Feb 4 Feb 20 2009 2009 2008 2008 2008 2009 2008 Approve 41 42 38 35 33 42 30 Disapprove 33 30 30 31 34 30 31 DK/NA 27 28 32 34 33 28 39
13. Looking ahead to the 2009 election for Governor, do you feel that Jon Corzine deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Yes/Deserves 34% 7% 61% 28% 34% 34% 28% 61% No/Does not 53 87 24 57 54 52 60 23 DK/NA 13 6 15 15 13 14 11 17 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Yes/Deserves 47% 39% 26% 29% 25% No/Does not 39 44 61 59 66 DK/NA 13 17 13 12 10
TREND: Looking ahead to the 2009 election for Governor, do you feel that Jon Corzine deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
Mar 12 Feb 4 Nov 19 Sep 17 Aug 12 Feb 20 Dec 11 2009 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2007 Yes 34 33 37 37 37 32 44 No 53 54 51 50 50 51 43 DK/NA 13 13 12 13 12 17 13
14. Since Jon Corzine became Governor in January 2006, do you feel that things in New Jersey have gotten better, gotten worse, or stayed about the same?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Better 8% 3% 14% 5% 8% 7% 6% 11% Worse 47 69 27 51 51 44 52 23 The same 42 28 55 41 38 45 39 61 DK/NA 3 1 4 3 2 3 3 4 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Better 14% 8% 5% 7% 5% Worse 27 42 57 52 58 The same 55 47 36 38 35 DK/NA 4 3 2 3 2
TREND: Since Jon Corzine became Governor in January 2006, do you feel that things in New Jersey have gotten better, gotten worse, or stayed about the same?
Highest Lowest Better Better Mar 12 Feb 4 Nov 19 Sep 17 Aug 12 Feb 28 Mar 12 2009 2009 2008 2008 2008 2007 2009 Better 8 9 10 10 9 20 8 Worse 47 45 44 39 39 15 47 The same 42 43 43 47 49 62 42 DK/NA 3 3 3 4 3 3 3
15. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jon Corzine is handling the economy?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 31% 8% 55% 27% 33% 30% 26% 54% Disapprove 56 84 31 60 57 55 61 36 DK/NA 13 8 14 13 10 14 13 10 Philly NoColl College Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Degree Degree Approve 44% 39% 25% 25% 21% 27% 39% Disapprove 44 47 63 61 69 59 51 DK/NA 11 14 12 13 10 14 10 ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME.. 50- 100- AGE IN YRS....... <50k 100k 250k >250k 18-34 35-54 55+ Approve 32% 29% 39% 33% 32% 34% 30% Disapprove 56 61 53 54 50 57 57 DK/NA 13 9 9 13 18 8 13
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jon Corzine is handling the economy?
Mar 12 Feb 5 2009 2009 Approve 31 33 Disapprove 56 56 DK/NA 13 11
23. During this national economic crisis do you think in New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine has helped make things better, made things worse, or made no difference?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Better 12% 3% 22% 8% 13% 11% 10% 24% Worse 27 47 10 30 27 27 30 11 No difference 57 49 63 59 57 58 56 61 DK/NA 4 1 5 3 3 4 4 4 Philly NoColl College Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Degree Degree Better 25% 11% 7% 14% 7% 11% 12% Worse 18 21 34 28 37 30 23 No difference 50 64 56 54 54 55 61 DK/NA 8 4 3 4 2 4 3 ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME.. 50- 100- AGE IN YRS....... <50k 100k 250k >250k 18-34 35-54 55+ Better 12% 10% 13% 16% 14% 12% 12% Worse 30 29 22 32 17 29 29 No difference 53 58 63 51 64 56 55 DK/NA 5 3 3 1 4 3 4
24. Do you think Jon Corzine's experience as a Wall Street businessman is helping New Jersey during the current economic crisis, hurting New Jersey during the current economic crisis, or doesn't it make a difference?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Helping 20% 5% 32% 19% 23% 17% 18% 28% Hurting 20 33 7 22 24 17 22 10 No diff 56 58 55 56 51 61 56 57 DK/NA 4 4 5 3 2 6 4 5 Philly NoColl College Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Degree Degree Helping 30% 24% 13% 16% 14% 17% 24% Hurting 16 17 20 24 25 23 15 No diff 51 55 62 54 59 55 58 DK/NA 3 4 5 6 2 4 3 ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME.. 50- 100- AGE IN YRS....... <50k 100k 250k >250k 18-34 35-54 55+ Helping 16% 18% 22% 38% 19% 20% 21% Hurting 20 23 16 22 13 22 21 No diff 59 57 59 40 60 57 53 DK/NA 5 2 3 - 8 2 4
25. Did you happen to know that Christopher Christie is the federal prosecutor responsible for putting more than a hundred New Jersey politicians out of office or in jail or weren't you aware of that?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Yes/Was aware 44% 55% 32% 47% 54% 35% 47% 37% No/Was not aware 56 45 68 52 45 65 53 63 DK/NA - - - 1 1 - 1 - Philly Christie Fav. Q4 Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Hvn't hrd enough Yes/Was aware 49% 42% 50% 37% 44% 23% No/Was not aware 51 57 50 63 56 77 DK/NA - 1 - - 1 -
26. Does that make you more likely to vote for Christopher Christie for governor over Jon Corzine, less likely to vote for Christopher Christie over Jon Corzine, or doesn't it make a difference?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk More likely 42% 69% 21% 45% 45% 39% 47% 18% Less likely 7 2 15 4 8 6 6 21 Doesn't make diff 45 26 56 45 43 47 42 48 DK/NA 7 4 8 6 5 8 6 13 Philly Christie Fav. Q4 Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Hvn't hrd enough More likely 33% 36% 45% 42% 53% 34% Less likely 11 8 3 6 6 7 Doesn't make diff 51 47 46 44 36 52 DK/NA 5 9 5 8 4 8 AWARE Q25 Yes No More likely 52% 34% Less likely 6 8 Doesn't make diff 40 49 DK/NA 3 9
27. Do you think being a federal prosecutor has given Christopher Christie enough experience to be governor of New Jersey?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Yes 48% 66% 30% 54% 51% 45% 51% 28% No 36 20 53 29 37 35 31 59 DK/NA 16 13 17 17 12 20 18 13 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Yes 42% 46% 51% 48% 53% No 42 39 31 27 37 DK/NA 16 15 19 25 10
28. Which is closer to your point of view - During the economic crisis it is better to have a businessman like Jon Corzine as Governor or During the economic crisis it would be a good idea to get a new face like Christopher Christie as governor?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk A businessman 37% 7% 64% 31% 39% 35% 31% 64% A new face 49 83 22 53 49 49 55 22 DK/NA 14 10 13 16 12 15 14 13 Philly NoColl College Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Degree Degree A businessman 54% 43% 29% 29% 28% 32% 45% A new face 34 43 55 54 62 54 41 DK/NA 12 14 16 18 9 14 14 ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME.. 50- 100- AGE IN YRS....... <50k 100k 250k >250k 18-34 35-54 55+ A businessman 35% 36% 43% 40% 43% 38% 33% A new face 50 53 43 51 51 47 51 DK/NA 15 11 14 9 5 15 17
34. Do you approve or disapprove of President Obama's 75 billion dollar plan to help homeowners avoid foreclosure?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 58% 26% 82% 56% 55% 61% 52% 94% Disapprove 34 67 11 35 39 30 39 5 DK/NA 8 8 7 9 7 8 9 1 Philly NoColl College Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Degree Degree Approve 65% 59% 56% 59% 54% 59% 57% Disapprove 25 33 36 32 40 33 35 DK/NA 10 7 9 9 5 8 8 ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME.. 50- 100- AGE IN YRS....... <50k 100k 250k >250k 18-34 35-54 55+ Approve 69% 53% 52% 47% 60% 58% 59% Disapprove 24 40 38 47 29 36 34 DK/NA 7 7 10 5 11 6 7 Home Owners Renters Approve 53% 75% Disapprove 39 19 DK/NA 8 7
35. Some people say that President Obama's plan to help homeowners avoid foreclosure isn't fair to mortgage holders who make payments on time. Do you agree or disagree?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Agree 63% 83% 47% 67% 66% 59% 67% 42% Disagree 31 14 47 27 28 33 27 56 DK/NA 7 4 6 6 6 8 7 2 Philly NoColl College Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Degree Degree Agree 51% 63% 65% 60% 68% 62% 64% Disagree 41 32 26 30 26 31 31 DK/NA 8 5 9 9 5 7 5 ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME.. 50- 100- AGE IN YRS....... <50k 100k 250k >250k 18-34 35-54 55+ Agree 57% 66% 66% 70% 63% 65% 60% Disagree 37 31 28 30 32 30 32 DK/NA 7 3 6 - 6 5 8 Home Owners Renters Agree 66% 53% Disagree 27 42 DK/NA 7 5
36. Some people say that President Obama's plan to help homeowners avoid foreclosure will help stabilize home prices for all homeowners in a neighborhood. Do you agree or disagree?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Agree 51% 25% 73% 50% 48% 53% 47% 79% Disagree 40 68 19 43 47 35 45 13 DK/NA 9 7 8 7 5 12 8 7 Philly NoColl College Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Degree Degree Agree 57% 52% 48% 53% 46% 48% 56% Disagree 33 39 43 38 47 42 37 DK/NA 10 9 9 9 6 9 7 ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME.. 50- 100- AGE IN YRS....... <50k 100k 250k >250k 18-34 35-54 55+ Agree 55% 49% 51% 52% 53% 53% 49% Disagree 35 46 42 44 36 42 41 DK/NA 10 5 7 4 10 5 10 Home Owners Renters Agree 48% 60% Disagree 44 30 DK/NA 8 10