New Jersey (NJ) Poll * August 11, 2009 * Corzine Inches Up In New Jerse - Quinnipiac University

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August 11, 2009 - Corzine Inches Up In New Jersey, Wins Beach Poll, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters, 2-1, Embarrassed By Corruption, Blame Dems

Word format Democratic incumbent Gov. Jon Corzine has gained a little ground on Republican challenger Christopher Christie and now trails the former prosecutor 51 - 42 percent among likely voters in the New Jersey Governor's race, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
This compares to a 53 - 41 percent Christie lead in a July 14 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.
In a three-way matchup among likely voters, Christie leads Corzine 46 - 40 percent, with 7 percent for independent candidate Christopher Daggett, a little tighter than July 14.
In the two-way face-off, Corzine leads 83 - 10 percent among Democratic likely voters, compared to 76 - 19 percent July 14. Christie leads 89 - 7 percent among Republicans and 64 - 29 percent among independent voters, both unchanged.
A total of 93 percent of New Jersey voters say government corruption is a "somewhat serious" or "very serious" problem and 65 percent of voters say the recent wave of corruption arrests embarrasses them as New Jersey residents.
Voters say 50 - 15 percent that they associate the Democratic Party with corruption more than the Republican Party. Independent voters blame Democrats 56 - 9 percent. Even 28 percent of Democrats point the finger at their own party.
"Is corruption a big problem? Wow, is it! Almost everyone in New Jersey thinks so. And two thirds feel personally embarrassed to live in a state where politicians are pictured in handcuffs," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"More than half associate corruption with the Democratic party. Almost a third say both parties share the blame. Republicans pretty much get a pass."
"Chris Christie has lost a little ground, but he's still up nine points in the two-candidate matchup. Third party candidate Christopher Daggett is going nowhere, but he makes the race interesting, eating into Christie's lead and bringing the gap down to six points," Carroll added.
New Jersey voters disapprove 58 - 36 percent of the job Corzine is doing, a slight improvement on his 60 - 33 percent disapproval July 14. By a 54 - 37 percent margin, they have an unfavorable opinion of Corzine, compared to a 42 - 26 percent favorable opinion of Christie. For Daggett, 92 percent don't know enough about him to form an opinion.
Voters say 42 - 36 percent they would rather spend an afternoon on the Sandy Hook beach with Corzine. Women would rather stroll with Corzine 46 - 31 percent, while men favor Christie 42 - 38 percent. A total of 65 percent of voters say a likable personality is "very important" or "somewhat important" in a candidate.
New Jersey voters know little about the candidates for Lieutenant Governor: 91 percent don't know enough about Republican Kim Guadagno to form an opinion and 81 percent don't know enough about Loretta Weinberg.
Christie would do a better job on the state budget, voters say 47 - 41 percent, and do a better job cleaning up corruption, voters say 54 - 31 percent.
Voters also say 55 - 35 percent that Christie's service as a federal prosecutor gives him enough experience to be governor.
"It's almost all bad for the Governor - a big negative on job performance, where he's down 3 - 1 in some Republican areas. He loses to Christie, too, when we ask who'd do better building budgets and fighting corruption," Carroll said.
"One lonely positive: On the 'nice guy' question of who'd be a better companion on the Sandy Hook beach, Corzine outscores Christie.
"If the Lieutenant Governor choices will make a difference, it hasn't shown up yet. Hardly anyone has heard of Guadagno and Weinberg is far from a household name."
From August 5 - 9, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,167 New Jersey likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and nationally as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed: http://ww.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.
1. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Jon Corzine the Democrat, and Christopher Christie the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Corzine or Christie? This table includes "Leaners".
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Corzine 42% 7% 83% 29% 35% 48% Christie 51 89 10 64 57 45 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - DK/NA 6 3 6 6 7 6 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Corzine 48% 51% 27% 49% 30% Christie 44 41 66 44 64 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 2 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - DK/NA 8 7 5 6 5
TREND: If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Jon Corzine the Democrat, and Christopher Christie the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Corzine or Christie? This table includes Leaners.
LIKELY VOTERS......... Aug 11 Jul 14 Jun 10 2009 2009 2009 Corzine 42 41 40 Christie 51 53 50 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - DK/NA 6 6 9
2. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Jon Corzine the Democrat, Christopher Christie the Republican, and Christopher Daggett the independent, for whom would you vote?(If undecided q2) As of today, do you lean more toward Corzine, Christie, or Daggett? This table includes "Leaners".
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Corzine 40% 8% 81% 25% 34% 46% Christie 46 84 9 55 53 40 Daggett 7 4 5 13 7 8 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - DK/NA 6 5 5 7 6 7 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Corzine 46% 48% 25% 50% 29% Christie 38 38 58 41 59 Daggett 9 7 10 4 7 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - DK/NA 8 7 7 6 5
TREND: If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Jon Corzine the Democrat, Christopher Christie the Republican, and Christopher Daggett the independent, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Corzine, Christie, or Daggett? This table includes Leaners.
LIKELY VOTERS Aug 11 Jul 14 2009 2009 Corzine 40 38 Christie 46 47 Daggett 7 8 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - DK/NA 6 7
3. Is your opinion of -- Christopher Christie favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 42% 72% 12% 49% 50% 34% Unfavorable 26 7 47 22 22 29 Hvn't hrd enough 30 19 40 25 22 36 REFUSED 3 3 1 4 5 1 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Favorable 35% 34% 52% 36% 54% Unfavorable 27 32 20 26 20 Hvn't hrd enough 34 31 25 36 23 REFUSED 4 3 3 1 4
TREND: Is your opinion of - Christopher Christie favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS Aug 11 Jul 14 2009 2009 Favorable 42 39 Unfavorable 26 20 Hvn't hrd enough 30 40 REFUSED 3 1
4. Is your opinion of -- Jon Corzine favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 37% 9% 70% 27% 35% 39% Unfavorable 54 85 20 65 57 51 Hvn't hrd enough 6 5 7 6 6 7 REFUSED 2 1 2 3 2 3 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Favorable 47% 48% 23% 39% 24% Unfavorable 38 45 69 48 71 Hvn't hrd enough 11 5 7 8 4 REFUSED 4 2 1 4 2
TREND: Is your opinion of - Jon Corzine favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS Aug 11 Jul 14 2009 2009 Favorable 37 34 Unfavorable 54 58 Hvn't hrd enough 6 6 REFUSED 2 2
5. Is your opinion of -- Christopher Daggett favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 4% 3% 2% 7% 5% 3% Unfavorable 3 1 4 2 3 2 Hvn't hrd enough 92 94 93 89 90 94 REFUSED 1 2 - 1 2 - Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Favorable 6% 3% 7% 4% 4% Unfavorable 4 3 3 2 1 Hvn't hrd enough 88 94 88 93 94 REFUSED 3 - 2 1 1
TREND: Is your opinion of - Christopher Daggett favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS Aug 11 Jul 14 2009 2009 Favorable 4 5 Unfavorable 3 2 Hvn't hrd enough 92 92 REFUSED 1 1
6. Is your opinion of -- Kim Guadagno favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 7% 10% 2% 8% 8% 5% Unfavorable 2 1 2 2 2 1 Hvn't hrd enough 91 88 95 89 89 93 REFUSED 1 - - 1 1 - Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Favorable 9% 6% 7% 2% 10% Unfavorable 1 2 1 2 2 Hvn't hrd enough 89 91 92 96 87 REFUSED 1 - 1 - 1
7. Is your opinion of -- Loretta Weinberg favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 11% 6% 16% 10% 11% 11% Unfavorable 7 11 4 8 11 4 Hvn't hrd enough 81 82 80 82 77 85 REFUSED 1 1 - 1 1 1 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Favorable 17% 17% 6% 5% 6% Unfavorable 2 8 7 5 11 Hvn't hrd enough 79 75 86 90 82 REFUSED 2 1 1 1 -
8. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jon Corzine is handling his job as Governor?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 36% 11% 68% 26% 32% 40% Disapprove 58 88 23 70 63 53 DK/NA 6 1 9 4 5 8 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Approve 40% 48% 24% 38% 25% Disapprove 47 48 75 51 72 DK/NA 14 5 2 11 4
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jon Corzine is handling his job as governor?
LIKELY VOTERS Aug 11 Jul 14 2009 2009 Approve 36 33 Disapprove 58 60 DK/NA 6 7
9. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 23% 8% 43% 14% 20% 25% Disapprove 63 81 39 75 69 57 DK/NA 15 11 18 11 11 18 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Approve 21% 29% 17% 28% 14% Disapprove 56 53 74 62 73 DK/NA 23 18 9 10 13
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
LIKELY VOTERS Aug 11 Jul 14 2009 2009 Approve 23 27 Disapprove 63 59 DK/NA 15 13
10. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Frank Lautenberg is handling his job as United States Senator?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 45% 20% 73% 36% 44% 45% Disapprove 38 62 9 50 46 32 DK/NA 17 18 19 14 11 23
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Frank Lautenberg is handling his job as United States Senator?
LIKELY VOTERS Aug 11 Jul 14 2009 2009 Approve 45 43 Disapprove 38 40 DK/NA 17 17
11. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Robert Menendez is handling his job as United States Senator?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 39% 16% 62% 34% 37% 41% Disapprove 38 57 13 49 47 30 DK/NA 22 26 25 16 16 29
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Robert Menendez is handling his job as United States Senator?
LIKELY VOTERS. Aug 11 Jul 14 2009 2009 Approve 39 40 Disapprove 38 37 DK/NA 22 23
13. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in New Jersey today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Very satisfied 4% 2% 5% 2% 4% 3% Smwht satisfied 29 14 53 19 24 34 Smwht dissatisfied 30 30 29 30 32 28 Very dissatisfied 36 54 12 48 40 33 DK/NA 1 - 1 1 1 1 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Very satisfied 2% 4% 3% 4% 4% Smwht satisfied 35 38 20 30 18 Smwht dissatisfied 32 26 30 36 30 Very dissatisfied 27 31 46 30 47 DK/NA 4 1 - - 0
14. What is the most important issue to you in deciding how to vote for governor this year?
LIKELY VOTERS Tot Taxes Total 31% Taxes general 13 Property tax 16 Income Tax 1 Taxes other 1 Economy Total 20% Economy general 9 Unemployment/Jobs 10 Cost of living 1 Politicians Total 9% Politicians general 2 Political corruption 6 Governor/State leadership 1 Budget Total 8% Budget general 4 Budget deficits 1 Gov too big/spending 1 Budget priorities 1 Budget other 1 Healthcare/Costs/Ins/HMO's 5% Lack of ethics/Morality 5% Education Total 4% Education general 2 Funding education 2 Crime/Violence 1% Immigration 1% Senior issues 1% Other 5% DK/NA 7%
15. Regardless of how you intend to vote, which candidate for Governor, do you think would do a better job handling the state budget - Jon Corzine or Christopher Christie?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Corzine 41% 10% 78% 30% 35% 46% Christie 47 81 12 57 54 41 DK/NA 12 9 10 13 10 13
TREND: Regardless of how you intend to vote, which candidate for governor - Jon Corzine or Christopher Christie do you think would do a better job handling the state budget?
LIKELY VOTERS Aug 11 Jul 14 2009 2009 Corzine 41 36 Christie 47 50 DK/NA 12 14
16. Regardless of how you intend to vote, which candidate for Governor, do you think would do a better job cleaning up corruption - Jon Corzine or Christopher Christie?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Corzine 31% 7% 61% 20% 25% 36% Christie 54 82 22 65 62 46 DK/NA 16 10 18 15 14 17
TREND: Regardless of how you intend to vote, which candidate for governor - Jon Corzine or Christopher Christie do you think would do a better job cleaning up corruption?
LIKELY VOTERS Aug 11 Jul 14 2009 2009 Corzine 31 30 Christie 54 54 DK/NA 16 17
17. Do you think being a federal prosecutor has given Christopher Christie enough experience to be governor of New Jersey?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 55% 76% 33% 60% 59% 51% No 35 15 57 31 33 37 DK/NA 10 8 10 9 8 12
TREND: Do you think being a federal prosecutor has given Christopher Christie enough experience to be governor of New Jersey?
LIKELY VOTERS Aug 11 Jul 14 2009 2009 Yes 55 57 No 35 30 DK/NA 10 13
18. Do you think Jon Corzine's background as an investment banker has made him a better governor, a worse governor, or hasn't it made a difference?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Better Gov 24% 11% 43% 16% 23% 25% Worse Gov 19 28 7 25 20 18 Hasn't made diff 53 59 46 56 53 53 DK/NA 4 2 4 3 4 4
TREND: Do you think Jon Corzine's background as an investment banker has made him a better governor, a worse governor, or hasn't it made a difference?
LIKELY VOTERS Aug 11 Jul 14 2009 2009 Better Gov 24 20 Worse Gov 19 19 Hasn't made diff 53 58 DK/NA 4 3
19. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who would you rather spend an afternoon at the Sandy Hook beach with - Jon Corzine or Christopher Christie?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Corzine 42% 18% 73% 32% 38% 46% Christie 36 64 10 41 42 31 DK/NA 22 18 17 27 21 24 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Corzine 48% 45% 35% 46% 34% Christie 29 31 44 33 44 DK/NA 23 24 20 21 21
20. When you decide how to vote for governor, how important is it to you that the candidate have a likeable personality - very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not important at all?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Very important 22% 15% 28% 16% 19% 24% Smwht important 43 47 44 42 38 48 Not too important 22 26 18 23 25 19 Not imptnt at all 13 12 10 18 18 9 DK/NA - - - - - - Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Very important 35% 22% 16% 19% 20% Smwht important 37 45 44 41 44 Not too important 21 22 24 19 23 Not imptnt at all 7 11 15 21 13 DK/NA 1 - - - -
TREND: When you decide how to vote for governor, how important is it to you that the candidate has a likeable personality - very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not important at all?
LIKELY VOTERS Aug 11 Jul 14 2009 2009 Very important 22 22 Smwht important 43 45 Not too important 22 19 Not imptnt at all 13 13 DK/NA - 1
21. Does Christopher Christie's choice of Kim Guadagno for lieutenant governor make you more likely to vote for Christie for governor, less likely, or doesn't it make a difference?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom More likely 7% 9% 5% 6% 9% 6% Less likely 5 2 10 4 4 7 Doesn't make diff 84 87 81 87 84 84 DK/NA 3 2 4 3 2 4
22. Does Jon Corzine's choice of Loretta Weinberg for lieutenant governor make you more likely to vote for Corzine for governor, less likely, or doesn't it make a difference?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom More likely 9% 1% 18% 7% 7% 11% Less likely 10 18 2 12 11 8 Doesn't make diff 78 79 77 80 79 77 DK/NA 3 2 4 1 3 3
23. Which party would you like to see control the New Jersey State Legislature after the elections in November - the Democratic Party or the Republican Party?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Democratic Party 43% 2% 92% 28% 35% 51% Republican Party 45 94 5 49 51 39 DK/NA 12 4 3 23 13 10 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Democratic Party 56% 49% 30% 51% 31% Republican Party 36 38 62 38 53 DK/NA 8 13 8 11 16
TREND: Which party would you like to see control the New Jersey State Legislature after the elections in November - the Democratic Party or the Republican Party?
LIKELY VOTERS Aug 11 Jul 14 2009 2009 Democratic Party 43 45 Republican Party 45 43 DK/NA 12 11
24. How much of a problem, if at all, is government corruption in New Jersey today? Is it a very serious problem, a somewhat serious problem, a not too serious problem, or not a problem at all?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Very serious problem 71% 77% 62% 78% 72% 71% Smwht serious 22 18 29 18 21 23 Not too serious 3 3 4 2 4 2 Not a problem at all 2 2 3 - - 3 DK/NA 2 1 2 1 2 2
25. In general, which party do you associate more with political corruption in New Jersey
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Republican party 15% 7% 30% 9% 14% 16% Democratic party 50 74 28 56 58 43 DK/NA 34 19 42 35 28 40
26. As you may know there has been a recent wave of corruption arrests in New Jersey. Most of those arrested were Democrats. Does this make you less likely to vote for Jon Corzine or not?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 28% 53% 8% 31% 31% 25% No 67 41 89 64 65 68 DK/NA 5 6 3 5 3 7
27. Does the recent wave of corruption arrests embarrass you as a New Jersey resident?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 65% 70% 58% 68% 64% 66% No 33 29 39 32 34 33 DK/NA 2 1 3 - 2 1