New Jersey (NJ) Poll * September 30, 2009 * Corzine Creeps Up On Christie - Quinnipiac University

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September 30, 2009 - Corzine Creeps Up On Christie In New Jersey Gov Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters Favor Property Tax Cap 8-1

Word format Democratic incumbent Gov. Jon Corzine has cut Republican challenger Christopher Christie's lead in half and now trails the former federal prosecutor 43 - 39 percent among New Jersey likely voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Independent candidate Christopher Daggett has 12 points, with 6 percent undecided.
This compares to a 47 - 37 percent Christie lead, with 9 percent for Daggett, in a September 1 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.
Corzine leads 71 - 10 percent among Democratic likely voters, with 11 percent for Daggett. Christie leads 83 - 6 percent among Republicans, with 9 percent for Daggett.
Independent voters shift from 46 - 30 percent for Christie, with 16 percent for Daggett September 1, to 45 - 32 percent for Christie, with 16 percent for Daggett today.
New Jersey voters disapprove 58 - 36 percent of the job Gov. Corzine is doing, little changed from deep disapproval scores in July, August and September. Independent voters disapprove 63 - 31 percent, continuing the double-digit disapproval by this key voting bloc.
"Christopher Christie is still ahead in the Garden State, but when he looks in the rear- view mirror, he sees the bearded visage of Gov. Jon Corzine getting closer," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"This race looks as if it will go down to the wire. Does Christopher Daggett's impressive climb measure a swing to him or simply a distaste for the two guys hollering at each other? Will Daggett fade on Election Day? At this stage, his numbers matter."
New Jersey voters split 38 - 38 percent in whether they have a favorable/unfavorable opinion of Christie, his worst measure of favorability so far.
By a 56 - 34 percent margin, voters have a negative opinion of Corzine, little changed from earlier surveys.
For Daggett, 84 percent still don't know enough about him to form an opinion.
In an open-ended question, where respondents can give any answer, 41 percent of New Jersey likely voters list taxes as the most important campaign issue, followed by 17 percent who list the economy or unemployment. Only 4 percent list political corruption, while another 4 percent cite honesty or morality.
Voters split 44 - 45 percent on whether Corzine is honest and trustworthy, better than September 1 when voters said 51 - 40 percent that he is not honest and trustworthy.
Christie gets a 37 - 36 percent split on the honest and trustworthy question, down from September 1 when voters said 44 - 31 percent he is honest and trustworthy.
If Corzine is elected, property taxes will go up, 61 percent of voters say, while 32 percent say they will stay the same.
Property taxes would go up under Christie, 34 percent say, as 46 percent say they would stay the same.
"The attack-attack-attack style of this rugged campaign is taking a toll on Christie, whose favorability and honesty measures are dropping," Carroll said. "But the Republican is the big winner when voters turn their attention to the biggest campaign issue - TAXES."
Property Tax Cap
New Jersey voters say 85 - 11 percent that there should be a cap on how much property taxes can be raised. Support for the cap is over 80 percent in every group measured.
But voters oppose 54 - 39 percent raising the state income tax or sales tax in order to provide property tax relief.
"New Jersey's property taxes are high and voters want to cap the increase, but they don't want to raise other taxes to do it," Carroll said.
From September 22 - 28, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,188 New Jersey likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and nationally as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed: http://ww.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.
1. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Jon Corzine the Democrat, Christopher Christie the Republican, and Christopher Daggett the independent, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Corzine, Christie, or Daggett? This table includes "Leaners".
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Corzine 39% 6% 71% 32% 34% 43% Christie 43 83 10 45 50 37 Daggett 12 9 11 16 12 13 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - DK/NA 6 2 8 7 4 8 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Corzine 64% 40% 22% 48% 25% Christie 23 41 59 35 53 Daggett 10 10 17 11 14 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - DK/NA 3 9 2 6 8
TREND: If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Jon Corzine the Democrat, Christopher Christie the Republican, and Christopher Daggett the independent, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Corzine, Christie, or Daggett? This table includes Leaners.
LIKELY VOTERS................. INDEPENDENT LIKELY VOTERS..... Sep 30 Sep 1 Aug 11 Jul 14 Sep 30 Sep 1 Aug 11 Jul 14 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 Corzine 39 37 40 38 32 30 25 24 Christie 43 47 46 47 45 46 55 54 Daggett 12 9 7 8 16 16 13 13 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - DK/NA 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 9
2. Is your opinion of - Christopher Christie favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 38% 73% 11% 38% 45% 32% Unfavorable 38 14 58 35 38 38 Hvn't hrd enough 22 12 29 25 15 29 REFUSED 2 1 1 2 2 2 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Favorable 18% 41% 52% 28% 44% Unfavorable 53 33 35 43 34 Hvn't hrd enough 26 26 11 27 20 REFUSED 3 1 3 1 2
TREND: Is your opinion of - Christopher Christie favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS................. Sep 30 Sep 1 Aug 11 Jul 14 2009 2009 2009 2009 Favorable 38 41 42 39 Unfavorable 38 30 26 20 Hvn't hrd enough 22 27 30 40 REFUSED 2 2 3 1
3. Is your opinion of - Jon Corzine favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 34% 7% 61% 29% 32% 37% Unfavorable 56 88 28 61 59 53 Hvn't hrd enough 6 4 7 6 7 6 REFUSED 4 - 4 4 3 5 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Favorable 56% 35% 20% 42% 23% Unfavorable 28 54 77 45 70 Hvn't hrd enough 12 5 3 10 4 REFUSED 4 6 - 3 3
TREND: Is your opinion of - Jon Corzine favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS................. Sep 30 Sep 1 Aug 11 Jul 14 2009 2009 2009 2009 Favorable 34 34 37 34 Unfavorable 56 57 54 58 Hvn't hrd enough 6 6 6 6 REFUSED 4 3 2 2
4. Is your opinion of - Christopher Daggett favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 11% 12% 7% 16% 14% 9% Unfavorable 3 1 6 3 3 4 Hvn't hrd enough 84 87 87 81 83 86 REFUSED 1 1 1 - 1 - Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Favorable 6% 10% 15% 10% 16% Unfavorable 4 4 1 3 5 Hvn't hrd enough 89 86 83 87 77 REFUSED 1 1 - - 2
TREND: Is your opinion of - Christopher Daggett favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS................. Sep 30 Sep 1 Aug 11 Jul 14 2009 2009 2009 2009 Favorable 11 8 4 5 Unfavorable 3 4 3 2 Hvn't hrd enough 84 87 92 92 REFUSED 1 1 1 1
5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jon Corzine is handling his job as governor?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 36% 9% 63% 31% 32% 40% Disapprove 58 89 29 63 64 52 DK/NA 7 2 8 7 5 8 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Approve 57% 35% 24% 42% 26% Disapprove 35 56 74 51 68 DK/NA 8 9 1 7 6
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jon Corzine is handling his job as governor?
LIKELY VOTERS................. Sep 30 Sep 1 Aug 11 Jul 14 2009 2009 2009 2009 Approve 36 34 36 33 Disapprove 58 60 58 60 DK/NA 7 6 6 7
6. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 24% 11% 40% 20% 22% 26% Disapprove 61 78 40 72 68 54 DK/NA 15 11 20 8 10 20 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Approve 30% 29% 18% 25% 17% Disapprove 52 57 70 56 71 DK/NA 18 15 12 19 12
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
LIKELY VOTERS................. Sep 30 Sep 1 Aug 11 Jul 14 2009 2009 2009 2009 Approve 24 25 23 27 Disapprove 61 64 63 59 DK/NA 15 11 15 13
7. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 56% 23% 89% 50% 50% 61% Disapprove 39 71 8 44 44 34 DK/NA 5 6 3 6 5 5
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?
LIKELY VOTERS......... Sep 30 Sep 1 Jul 14 2009 2009 2009 Approve 56 51 60 Disapprove 39 43 34 DK/NA 5 6 6
8. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in New Jersey today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Very satisfied 2% 1% 4% 1% 1% 2% Smwht satisfied 30 12 48 26 30 31 Smwht dissatisfied 33 38 33 31 31 36 Very dissatisfied 34 49 15 42 38 31 DK/NA - - - - - - Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Very satisfied 5% 1% 1% 3% 1% Smwht satisfied 41 29 25 41 20 Smwht dissatisfied 34 35 33 32 31 Very dissatisfied 21 34 41 24 48 DK/NA - - - - -
TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in New Jersey today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
LIKELY VOTERS................. Sep 30 Sep 1 Aug 11 Sep 28 2009 2009 2009 2005 Very satisfied 2 2 4 3 Smwht satisfied 30 28 29 34 Smwht dissatisfied 33 32 30 33 Very dissatisfied 34 37 36 28 DK/NA - 1 1 -
9. What is the most important issue to you in deciding how to vote for governor this year?
LIKELY VOTERS Taxes Total 41% Taxes general 14 Property tax 26 Income Tax 1 Economy Total 17% Economy general 6 Unemployment/Jobs 10 Cost of living 1 Budget Total 7% Budget general 3 Budget deficits 1 Gov too big/Gov spending 2 Budget priorities 1 Healthcare Total 7% Healthcare/Costs/Ins/HMO's 6 Medicare 1 Politicians Total 7% Politicians/Campaigns gen 1 Political corruption 4 Governor/State leadership 2 Honesty/Morality 4% Honesty 2 Lack of ethics/Morality 2 Education Total 3% Education general 2 Funding education 1 Crime/Violence general 1 Abortion 1 Environment/Pollution 1 Other 4 DK/NA 6
10. Would you say that Jon Corzine has strong leadership qualities or not?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 54% 31% 79% 49% 48% 59% No 42 66 16 47 49 35 DK/NA 4 3 5 4 2 6
TREND: Would you say that Jon Corzine has strong leadership qualities or not?
LIKELY VOTERS................. Sep 30 Sep 1 Sep 28 Aug 10 2009 2009 2005 2005 Yes 54 48 67 60 No 42 47 20 18 DK/NA 4 5 13 22
11. Would you say that Jon Corzine is honest and trustworthy or not?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 44% 21% 66% 40% 47% 41% No 45 72 23 48 46 45 DK/NA 11 8 11 12 7 14
TREND: Would you say that Jon Corzine is honest and trustworthy or not?
LIKELY VOTERS................. Sep 30 Sep 1 Oct 19 Sep 28 2009 2009 2005 2005 Yes 44 40 53 55 No 45 51 29 25 DK/NA 11 10 18 20
12. Would you say that Jon Corzine cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 42% 17% 69% 35% 39% 45% No 52 79 25 59 56 49 DK/NA 6 4 5 6 5 6
TREND: Would you say that Jon Corzine cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
LIKELY VOTERS......... Sep 30 Sep 1 Sep 28 2009 2009 2005 Yes 42 41 56 No 52 54 31 DK/NA 6 6 13
13. Would you say that Christopher Christie has strong leadership qualities or not?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 46% 73% 22% 54% 51% 42% No 30 12 45 25 33 28 DK/NA 24 15 33 21 16 30
TREND: Would you say that Christopher Christie has strong leadership qualities or not?
LIKELY VOTERS Sep 30 Sep 1 2009 2009 Yes 46 52 No 30 25 DK/NA 24 23
14. Would you say that Christopher Christie is honest and trustworthy or not?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 37% 67% 14% 40% 45% 30% No 36 15 54 30 35 37 DK/NA 27 18 32 31 20 33
TREND: Would you say that Christopher Christie is honest and trustworthy or not?
LIKELY VOTERS Sep 30 Sep 1 2009 2009 Yes 37 44 No 36 31 DK/NA 27 25
15. Would you say that Christopher Christie cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 42% 75% 19% 42% 46% 38% No 37 13 54 37 38 37 DK/NA 21 12 27 21 16 25
TREND: Would you say that Christopher Christie cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
LIKELY VOTERS Sep 30 Sep 1 2009 2009 Yes 42 47 No 37 34 DK/NA 21 19
16. If Jon Corzine is reelected governor, do you think property taxes will go up, go down, or stay about the same?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Go up 61% 84% 34% 71% 65% 57% Go down 3 1 7 1 2 4 Stay about same 32 13 55 24 30 34 DK/NA 4 1 4 4 3 5 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Go up 45% 57% 73% 58% 69% Go down 12 1 2 4 1 Stay about same 37 36 23 36 25 DK/NA 6 5 2 1 5
17. If Christopher Christie is elected governor, do you think property taxes will go up, go down, or stay about the same?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Go up 34% 22% 41% 38% 35% 34% Go down 9 16 2 8 11 6 Stay about same 46 55 39 46 49 43 DK/NA 11 6 18 8 5 17 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Go up 43% 32% 26% 40% 36% Go down 7 9 10 8 7 Stay about same 35 46 57 43 45 DK/NA 16 13 7 9 11
18. Should there be a cap on how much property taxes can be raised annually in New Jersey or not?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 85% 85% 83% 89% 84% 85% No 11 11 13 8 12 10 DK/NA 4 4 3 3 4 5 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Yes 82% 82% 89% 86% 88% No 13 12 9 10 8 DK/NA 5 7 2 4 3
19. If needed to achieve meaningful property tax relief, would you support or oppose an increase in one of the major state taxes such as the state income or sales taxes?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Support 39% 29% 53% 38% 41% 38% Oppose 54 65 43 57 56 53 DK/NA 6 7 4 4 4 9 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Support 47% 41% 33% 36% 38% Oppose 42 53 64 57 54 DK/NA 11 6 3 6 8
20. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who would you rather have take a school class on a tour of the state government in Trenton - Jon Corzine or Christopher Christie?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Corzine 49% 21% 77% 45% 46% 52% Christie 38 69 17 36 41 35 DK/NA 13 10 6 19 13 13 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Corzine 68% 50% 41% 49% 40% Christie 21 38 48 35 44 DK/NA 10 13 11 16 17
21. When you decide how to vote for governor, how important is it to you that the candidate have a likeable personality - very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not important at all?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Very important 22% 19% 29% 17% 22% 23% Smwht important 39 45 37 39 35 43 Not too important 23 18 23 29 24 23 Not important at all 15 17 11 15 19 11 DK/NA - - - - - -
TREND: When you decide how to vote for governor, how important is it to you that the candidate has a likeable personality - very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not important at all?
LIKELY VOTERS................. Sep 30 Sep 1 Aug 11 Jul 14 2009 2009 2009 2009 Very important 22 23 22 22 Smwht important 39 43 43 45 Not too important 23 20 22 19 Not imptnt at all 15 12 13 13 DK/NA - 1 - 1