New Jersey (NJ) Poll * October 14, 2009 * Christie's Lead Is Ultra-Thin - Quinnipiac University

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October 14, 2009 - Christie's Lead Is Ultra-Thin In New Jersey Gov Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Daggett At 14%, But 77% Say He Can't Win

Word format The New Jersey governor's race is going down to the wire as Republican challenger Christopher Christie gets 41 percent of likely voters, with 40 percent for Democratic incumbent Gov. Jon Corzine and 14 percent for independent candidate Christopher Daggett, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
This compares to a 43 - 39 percent Christie lead, with 12 percent for Daggett, in a September 30 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.
Corzine leads 76 - 11 percent among Democratic likely voters, with 10 percent for Daggett. Christie leads 83 - 8 percent among Republicans, with 7 percent for Daggett, and 41 - 32 percent among independent voters, with 20 percent for Daggett. Independent voters have shifted from 46 - 30 percent for Christie, with 16 percent for Daggett September 1, to 45 - 32 percent for Christie, with 16 percent for Daggett September 30.
While 80 percent of Christie voters and 75 percent of Corzine backers say their minds are made up, only 39 percent of Daggett backers say their mind is made up.
New Jersey voters disapprove 56 - 39 percent of the job Gov. Corzine is doing, still negative, but his best approval rating in months. Independent voters disapprove 62 - 34 percent.
"It's still a nail-biter. Christopher Christie has never given up the lead, but it's been getting slimmer and now it's a dead heat," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"Historically, third party candidates fade on election day. Apparently, voters agree. Very few of his backers are committed to independent candidate Christopher Daggett and 77 percent of all voters say he has no chance of winning."
New Jersey voters agree 59 - 35 percent with Christie's claim that Corzine has failed to make enough budget cuts.
Voters also agree 59 - 25 percent with Corzine's claim that Christie is too vague on his budget plans. But voters say 60 - 34 percent that Corzine's claim that Christie wants to drop mandated coverage for breast cancer exams is unfair.
By a narrow 45 - 48 percent margin, voters say Corzine is not honest and trustworthy.
Voters split 42 - 40 percent on whether Christie is honest and trustworthy.
Daggett is honest and trustworthy, voters say 29 - 8 percent, with 63 percent undecided.
"People obviously are listening to the negative ads from both sides. Both Corzine and Christie get a split, at best, on the 'honesty' question," Carroll said.
"Corzine has failed to control the state budget, Christie ads proclaim. Voters agree. Christie is too vague on what he'd do as Governor, Corzine ads proclaim. Again, voters agree.
"The Corzine team obviously likes the mammogram attack on Christie. They keep running it. But New Jerseyans don't like it. 'Unfair,' they say, almost 2 - 1."
In open-ended questions, allowing for any answer, New Jersey likely voters say what they like most and least about the candidates:
6 percent say Corzine's biggest plus is that he is honest/straightforward/sincere; 20 percent most dislike the Governor's record on taxes in general and property taxes; 11 percent most like Christie because he's "not Corzine" or represents "change;" 11 percent say the challenger's biggest negative is that he's "dishonest" or "hypocritical;" 8 percent most like Daggett because he's independent or non-partisan; 6 percent most dislike Daggett because he's a "spoiler."
Christie gets slightly negative 38 - 40 percent favorability, his worst measure so far.
Voters have a 53 - 40 percent negative opinion of Corzine, his best score in months.
For Daggett, 73 percent still don't know enough about him to form an opinion.
From October 7 - 12, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,264 New Jersey likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and nationally as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.
1. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Jon Corzine the Democrat, Christopher Christie the Republican, and Christopher Daggett the independent, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Corzine, Christie, or Daggett? This table includes Leaners.
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Corzine 40% 8% 76% 32% 36% 44% Christie 41 83 11 41 43 39 Daggett 14 7 10 20 17 11 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - DK/NA 5 2 3 8 4 6 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Corzine 57% 46% 30% 44% 28% Christie 23 40 46 33 56 Daggett 11 11 18 18 12 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - DK/NA 9 3 6 5 4
TREND: If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Jon Corzine the Democrat, Christopher Christie the Republican, and Christopher Daggett the independent, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Corzine, Christie, or Daggett? This table includes Leaners.
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Oct 14 Sep 30 Sep 1 Aug 11 Jul 14 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 Corzine 40 39 37 40 38 Christie 41 43 47 46 47 Daggett 14 12 9 7 8 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - DK/NA 5 6 6 6 7 INDEPENDENT LIKELY VOTERS............. Oct 14 Sep 30 Sep 1 Aug 11 Jul 14 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 Corzine 32 32 30 25 24 Christie 41 45 46 55 54 Daggett 20 16 16 13 13 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - DK/NA 8 7 8 7 9
1a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... CANDIDATE CHOICE GIVEN Q1............. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Made up 72% 78% 75% 64% 70% 73% Might change 27 21 23 34 29 25 DK/NA 1 1 2 1 1 2 CAND CHOICE Q1.... Corz Chris Dagg Made up 75% 80% 39% Might change 24 20 59 DK/NA 2 1 2
1b. (If voting for Daggett in q1) Who is your second choice for governor?
LIKELY VOTERS DAGGETT Q1 Corzine 33% Christie 40 Someone else 4 No one/WLDN'T VOTE 13 DK/NA 10
2. Is your opinion of - Christopher Christie favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 38% 72% 11% 39% 41% 35% Unfavorable 40 14 64 36 37 42 Hvn't hrd enough 20 14 24 22 19 21 REFUSED 2 1 2 3 3 2 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Favorable 23% 37% 42% 33% 48% Unfavorable 45 40 38 47 31 Hvn't hrd enough 26 21 18 18 20 REFUSED 6 2 2 2 1
TREND: Is your opinion of - Christopher Christie favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Oct 14 Sep 30 Sep 1 Aug 11 Jul 14 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 Favorable 38 38 41 42 39 Unfavorable 40 38 30 26 20 Hvn't hrd enough 20 22 27 30 40 REFUSED 2 2 2 3 1
3. Is your opinion of - Jon Corzine favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 40% 8% 72% 32% 38% 42% Unfavorable 53 89 22 57 56 51 Hvn't hrd enough 4 2 3 6 4 3 REFUSED 3 1 3 5 2 4 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Favorable 58% 45% 27% 48% 28% Unfavorable 33 48 64 49 65 Hvn't hrd enough 6 4 6 - 4 REFUSED 3 3 4 3 4
TREND: Is your opinion of - Jon Corzine favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Oct 14 Sep 30 Sep 1 Aug 11 Jul 14 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 Favorable 40 34 34 37 34 Unfavorable 53 56 57 54 58 Hvn't hrd enough 4 6 6 6 6 REFUSED 3 4 3 2 2
4. Is your opinion of - Christopher Daggett favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 19% 17% 15% 26% 23% 16% Unfavorable 7 7 11 4 7 8 Hvn't hrd enough 73 76 74 70 70 75 REFUSED 1 - 1 1 1 1 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Favorable 15% 15% 23% 24% 20% Unfavorable 8 8 8 5 7 Hvn't hrd enough 76 77 69 69 71 REFUSED 1 1 - 1 2
TREND: Is your opinion of - Christopher Daggett favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Oct 14 Sep 30 Sep 1 Aug 11 Jul 14 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 Favorable 19 11 8 4 5 Unfavorable 7 3 4 3 2 Hvn't hrd enough 73 84 87 92 92 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1
5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jon Corzine is handling his job as governor?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 39% 10% 65% 34% 37% 41% Disapprove 56 87 27 62 60 52 DK/NA 5 2 7 5 3 7 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Approve 58% 41% 34% 42% 27% Disapprove 33 54 63 52 70 DK/NA 9 5 4 6 3
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jon Corzine is handling his job as governor?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Oct 14 Sep 30 Sep 1 Aug 11 Jul 14 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 Approve 39 36 34 36 33 Disapprove 56 58 60 58 60 DK/NA 5 7 6 6 7
9a.Regardless of how you intend to vote, what do you - like most - about - Jon Corzine?
LIKELY VOTERS............ CAND CHOICE Q1.... Tot Corz Chris Dagg Doing/Done good job/Good track record 5% 11% - 2% Trying hard/Doing best he can 4 7 1 2 Experience/Background 3 6 1 - Party/Political Philosophy 5 9 1 6 Strong leadership qualities 1 2 1 1 Effective/Gets things done 1 1 - 1 Intelligent/Knowledgeable 2 3 1 1 Offers specific policy proposals - 1 - - Decisive/Good decision maker 1 1 - - Business approach 5 5 4 5 Not beholden/Rich/Paid his way 1 1 1 1 Doesn't take salary 1 1 1 3 Cares about NJ/The people/ Compassionate 3 6 1 1 Honest/Straightforward/Sincere/ Man of his word 6 10 3 6 Courageous/Strong/Outspoken/Does what he believes is right 1 1 1 - Down to earth/Regular guy 1 1 1 1 Personality/Charisma 1 - - 4 Stand on issues general - 1 - - Education 5 8 1 4 Budget/Finances 2 3 1 3 Economy/Jobs 1 2 - 2 Property taxes 1 - - 1 Abortion - 1 - - Issues other 3 6 1 4 Like EVERYTHING 1 2 - - Like NOTHING 29 2 56 35 Other 4 3 6 1 DK/NA 14 7 17 14
9b. And regardless of how you intend to vote, what do you - dislike most - about - Jon Corzine?
LIKELY VOTERS............ CAND CHOICE Q1.... Tot Corz Chris Dagg Not doing good job/Doing nothing for NJ/Bad track record 6% 5% 6% 9% Hasn't kept promises 5 1 7 10 Typical politician/Insider Politician 1 1 1 3 Party/Political Philosophy 3 1 5 3 Not a strong leader/Weak 3 4 2 2 Vague on issues/No clear plan 2 2 1 5 Business background/Goldman Sachs/ Wall Street ties 2 2 1 1 Bad decision maker/Reckless/Rash 1 2 1 1 Running negative campaign 1 1 1 1 Doesn't care about NJ/The people 1 1 1 - Not honest/Lies/Can't trust him/ Hypocritical 6 2 9 7 Political Corruption/Scandals/ Above the law 3 2 3 3 Personality/ Arrogant 2 1 2 1 Too wealthy/Can't relate to average person/Out of touch 3 2 4 4 Appearance/Weight/Health - - 1 - Stand on issues general 1 - 2 2 Education 1 1 - 1 Budget/Finances/Didn't cut spending enough 6 6 6 9 Economy/Jobs 2 1 1 5 Taxes/Tax plan 14 10 19 14 Property taxes 6 7 6 2 Issues other 4 6 4 3 Dislike EVERYTHING 3 - 5 3 Dislike NOTHING 8 19 2 0 Other 4 3 4 5 DK/NA 11 18 2 6
10a. Regardless of how you intend to vote, what do you - like most - about - Christopher Christie?
LIKELY VOTERS............ CAND CHOICE Q1.... Tot Corz Chris Dagg Doing/Done good job/Good track record 6% 5% 7% 6% Fighting corruption 6 2 10 8 Experience/Background 3 2 4 3 Party/Political Philosophy 4 1 7 5 Not Corzine 4 1 7 5 Will bring change 7 2 13 9 Strong leadership qualities - - - 1 Effective/Gets things done 1 1 1 - Intelligent/Knowledgeable - - 1 - Offers specific policy proposals - - 1 1 Cares about NJ/The people/ Compassionate 1 1 1 - Honest/Straightforward/Sincere/ Man of his word 5 1 10 1 Courageous/Strong/Outspoken/Does what he believes is right 1 1 1 - Down to earth/Regular guy 1 1 1 2 Personality/Charisma 1 1 - - Stand on issues general 1 1 2 - Crime 1 - 1 1 Budget/Finances 1 - 3 - Taxes/Tax plan 4 1 9 1 Property taxes 1 - 3 - Women's issues 1 - 1 1 Abortion - 1 - 1 Issues other 2 1 2 2 Like EVERYTHING - - - - Like NOTHING 21 40 2 31 Other 4 4 4 4 DK/NA 22 34 8 16
10b. And regardless of how you intend to vote, what do you - dislike most - about - Christopher Christie?
LIKELY VOTERS............ CAND CHOICE Q1.... Tot Corz Chris Dagg Not doing good job/Doing nothing for NJ/Bad track record 1% 1% 1% 3% Hasn't kept promises - - 1 - Typical politician/Insider Politician 3 3 4 1 Lack of experience 2 2 2 1 Party/Political Philosophy 6 6 3 12 Ties to Bush 1 2 - 3 Not a strong leader/Weak 1 1 1 1 Vague on issues/No clear plan 5 4 6 6 Running negative campaign 4 3 4 4 Running weak campaign 2 1 4 1 Doesn't care about NJ/The people - - - 1 Not honest/Lies/Can't trust him/ Hypocritical 11 16 5 16 Political Corruption/Scandals/ Above the law 5 4 3 14 Personality/Arrogant 2 3 1 5 Too wealthy/Can't relate to average person/Out of touch - - - 1 Appearance/Weight/Health 3 1 6 1 Stand on issues general 2 4 - 1 Education 2 2 - 2 Economy/Jobs - - - 1 Taxes/Tax plan 1 - 1 1 Women's issues 1 2 - 1 Abortion 1 1 1 - Issues other 5 7 3 2 Dislike EVERYTHING 2 3 - 1 Dislike NOTHING 12 4 24 2 Other 5 7 5 5 DK/NA 22 21 22 13
11a. Regardless of how you intend to vote, what do you - like most - about - Christopher Daggett?
LIKELY VOTERS............ CAND CHOICE Q1.... Tot Corz Chris Dagg Experience/Background - - - 1 Party/Political Philosophy 1 - 1 3 Independent/Non partisan/No party ties 8 6 6 25 Will bring change 3 1 1 15 Intelligent/Knowledgeable 1 1 1 1 Offers specific policy proposals 3 2 2 9 Running positive/Good campaign - - - 1 Cares about NJ/The people/ Compassionate 1 1 1 1 Honest/Straightforward/Sincere/ Man of his word 4 3 2 10 Courageous/Strong/Outspoken/Does what he believes is right 1 1 - 1 Down to earth/Regular guy 1 - 1 2 Personality/Charisma 1 - 1 - Stand on issues general 1 - 1 3 Economy/Jobs - - - 1 Taxes/Tax plan 1 - 1 5 Property taxes 1 - 2 3 Issues other 1 1 - 1 Like EVERYTHING - - - 1 Like NOTHING 2 2 2 1 Other 2 1 2 4 DK/NA 68 81 73 12
11b. And regardless of how you intend to vote, what do you - dislike most - about - Christopher Daggett?
LIKELY VOTERS............ CAND CHOICE Q1.... Tot Corz Chris Dagg Typical politician/Insider Politician - - - 1 Lack of experience 2 1 1 9 Can't win/Spoiler 6 3 9 5 Party/Political Philosophy 1 1 - 3 Not a strong leader/Weak - - - 1 Vague on issues/No specific plan 1 1 - 2 Running weak campaign 1 1 1 3 Doesn't care about NJ/People - 1 - - Stand on issues general - - - 1 Education - - - 1 Taxes/Tax plan 1 1 1 2 Issues other - - - 1 Dislike EVERYTHING - 1 - - Dislike NOTHING 8 5 7 23 Other 2 2 2 6 DK/NA 75 83 77 44
12. Would you say that Jon Corzine is honest and trustworthy or not?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 45% 18% 69% 41% 47% 42% No 48 74 24 51 48 48 DK/NA 7 8 7 7 5 10 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Yes 59% 51% 37% 46% 31% No 34 42 54 44 63 DK/NA 7 6 9 10 6
TREND: Would you say that Jon Corzine is honest and trustworthy or not?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Oct 14 Sep 30 Sep 1 Oct 19 Sep 28 2009 2009 2009 2005 2005 Yes 45 44 40 53 55 No 48 45 51 29 25 DK/NA 7 11 10 18 20
13. Would you say that Christopher Christie is honest and trustworthy or not?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 42% 69% 20% 44% 48% 36% No 40 16 60 39 39 41 DK/NA 18 15 21 17 13 23 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Yes 36% 44% 47% 33% 46% No 38 40 33 50 39 DK/NA 26 17 20 17 15
TREND: Would you say that Christopher Christie is honest and trustworthy or not?
LIKELY VOTERS........ Oct 14 Sep 30 Sep 1 2009 2009 2009 Yes 42 37 44 No 40 36 31 DK/NA 18 27 25
14. Would you say that Christopher Daggett is honest and trustworthy or not?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 29% 28% 23% 36% 35% 24% No 8 8 9 5 9 7 DK/NA 63 64 68 59 56 70 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Yes 22% 25% 32% 35% 32% No 6 5 7 6 15 DK/NA 72 70 61 59 53
15. If Jon Corzine is reelected governor, do you think property taxes will go up, go down, or stay about the same?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Go up 62% 86% 43% 64% 63% 61% Go down 5 1 11 1 5 4 Stay about same 30 11 42 32 28 31 DK/NA 3 3 4 3 3 3 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Go up 46% 60% 71% 60% 69% Go down 7 5 2 9 2 Stay about same 41 30 26 28 28 DK/NA 6 5 1 3 2
TREND: If Jon Corzine is reelected governor, do you think property taxes will go up, go down, or stay about the same?
LIKELY VOTERS Oct 14 Sep 30 2009 2009 Go up 62 61 Go down 5 3 Stay about same 30 32 DK/NA 3 4
16. If Christopher Christie is elected governor, do you think property taxes will go up, go down, or stay about the same?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Go up 35% 18% 51% 34% 33% 38% Go down 16 29 7 16 18 15 Stay about the same 40 45 32 43 43 37 DK/NA 8 7 10 7 7 10 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Go up 34% 35% 37% 38% 34% Go down 13 18 13 15 21 Stay about the same 36 41 47 36 39 DK/NA 17 7 4 11 7
TREND: If Christopher Christie is elected governor, do you think property taxes will go up, go down, or stay about the same?
LIKELY VOTERS Oct 14 Sep 30 2009 2009 Go up 35 34 Go down 16 9 Stay about same 40 46 DK/NA 8 11
17. If Christopher Daggett is elected governor, do you think property taxes will go up, go down, or stay about the same?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Go up 22% 19% 25% 21% 23% 20% Go down 11 13 11 11 14 8 Stay about the same 32 30 28 39 36 29 DK/NA 35 39 36 29 27 42 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Go up 21% 17% 30% 20% 23% Go down 4 13 8 15 12 Stay about the same 37 32 34 27 32 DK/NA 38 38 28 38 33
18. Christopher Christie says Jon Corzine has failed to make enough budget cuts. Do you agree or disagree?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Agree 59% 83% 33% 68% 63% 54% Disagree 35 12 59 27 32 38 DK/NA 6 5 8 5 5 8 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Agree 41% 56% 66% 56% 68% Disagree 48 37 28 37 28 DK/NA 11 7 5 7 5
19. Jon Corzine says Christopher Christie is too vague on his budget plans. Do you agree or disagree?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Agree 59% 42% 70% 62% 65% 53% Disagree 25 44 13 24 23 27 DK/NA 16 15 17 14 12 20 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Agree 60% 57% 62% 61% 57% Disagree 17 28 22 25 29 DK/NA 23 16 16 14 14
20. Some people say that Christopher Daggett has no chance of winning the election for governor because he is a third-party candidate. Do you agree or disagree?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Agree 77% 83% 79% 75% 84% 71% Disagree 19 14 18 21 14 24 DK/NA 3 3 3 3 2 5 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Agree 67% 81% 78% 71% 82% Disagree 26 15 19 26 14 DK/NA 7 3 3 2 3
21. Jon Corzine has accused Christopher Christie of wanting to drop mandated coverage for breast cancer exams. Do you think this is a legitimate campaign issue or an unfair attack?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Legitimate issue 34% 16% 53% 28% 32% 35% Unfair attack 60 79 40 64 61 59 DK/NA 7 4 7 7 7 6 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Legitimate issue 41% 40% 23% 36% 26% Unfair attack 48 55 69 58 67 DK/NA 11 4 8 6 6